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BTCUSD: Extrapolating 2014 Correction - Could $6,500 Be The Low?Sometimes the simplest extrapolations are best. No indicators on this chart, this is a pure extrapolation of the 2014-2015 correction and accumulation phase, that has notable similarities with the current fractal in play. Could $6,500 be the new swing low? Absolutely. This would imply an accumulation zone between $6.5-$8.3K for approximately 40 weeks, with the current correction lasting a reasonable 1 Year. This current extrapolation points to a breakout in price above $14K in July 2020, followed by a new all time high 6 months later in February 2021. See related analysis: Two & Four Year MA's Claim It's Time To Accumulate As well as bearish analysis: Miner Capitulation Is Here... Back Down To $3,800? Bitcoin Repeating History: 10 Part TA Series On Repeating Past Patterns Full series with recent updates: bitcointalk.org
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by dragononcrypto
BTCUSD: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Monthly TD Sequential Red 1Part 6: With the month of September coming to close in the coming days on a Monthly TD Sequential Red 1 price flip, October will be critical as to whether Bitcoin's monthly candle will close as a green 1 to break the sequential correction, or continue with another 6-8 red candles - as has happened in 2014 and 2018 during bear markets. Note that the Monthly Red 1 candles immediately preceding ATH have been excluded, as previously only have led to a 1-4 candle correction. As intriguing is that 4 years have now passed since Bitcoin's 2014 Monthly Red 1 candle that led to the 2016-2017 bull market. Additionally, the monthly RSI has broken down from 60 (bullish) to neutral territory, indicating scope for a 7-9 candle correction. If Bitcoin Repeats History? Part 1: Descending Triangle Looking Similar Part 2: Measuring The Move of the Descending Triangle Breakdown Part 3: A repeat of 2014? Worst Case Scenario A $2,500 Low Part 4: Extrapolating 2012 Descending Triangle Breakdown Part 5: If 2017 Descending Triangle Repeats? Best Case Scenario
BNC:BLX
by dragononcrypto
4
Bitcoin: Blast from the Past... But the Future is Now!Let me take a dive into price action today and how it has to do with 2014-2015 on a weekly chart. My name is Coin Savvy and I like charts. I really like Bitcoin too and have been involved ever since $2000 in May of 2017 and WOW let me tell you what a ride so far... let's get into this thing. Let me show you a monthly chart of Bitcoin in 2015 with a 50 ema (red) and a 200 ema (blue) with price action: If we take a look at the above chart you can see some date ranges as well as two yellow circles, let me explain. 1.) The first date range is from the top of the rally in Nov 2013 ($1200) to the bottom of the bear market in Jan 2015 ($150) after the rally. This lasted 413 days (a little over a year) . 2.) The second date range is from the bottom of the bear market in Jan 2015 ($150) to the local top in July 2015 ($300) before the bull rally to 20k in Dec 2018. This lasted 175 days (half a year) 3.) The next set of date ranges start at the top of the rally in Jan 2017 ($20,000) to the POSSIBLE bottom of the bear market in Dec 2018 ($3100) POSSIBLE POSSIBLE POSSIBLE !!! . This lasted 364 days (a year). 4.) The second set of those date ranges start at the POSSIBLE bottom of the bear market in Dec 2018 ($3100) to the POSSIBLE local top ($5600). This lasted 133 days (4 months) 5.) Those yellow circles, if you haven't already guessed it, is the confluence of 2015 and 2019. I have reason to believe that we are in a similar spot now compared to 2015, let me explain very simply: Blast from the Past: If we look at the 50 (red) and the 200 (blue) EMA's, we can see that price action broke the 50 ema bearish in 2014 during its bear market and then tested it as resistance later in July 2015 ($300) then fell to test the 200 ema as support and held in Aug-Sept 2015 ($200) then price action tested and broke that same 50 ema bullish right after to start the bull market to 20k and never crossed below until the 2018-2019 bear market. The Future is Now: If we look at the 50 (red) and the 200 (blue) EMA's, we can see that price action broke the 50 ema bearish in 2018 during its bear market and then tested it as resistance literally the past few weeks ($5200) and now we are at a standstill... The question is, do we get a short squeeze to get us into the 6k-7k region (this will be caused by price action getting above $5350 and $5600 in the near future respectively in my opinion) or are we going to get a rejection from the 50 weekly ema like we did in 2015 to send us back down to the 200 ema around $4200 to test that as resistance then go ahead and break that 50 ema to send us to the next bull market or as others call it MOOOOOOOOONNNNNN Nobody knows but this is a very interesting similarity and if the latter comes true and history repeats itself... wow... just wow. So moral of the story is start saving some dollars to deploy into Bitcoin before the next bull run... it's happening faster than last year if history were to repeat itself. Thanks for reading and I hope you have a nice night! Best, Coin Savvy PS: Here is another chart regarding percentage moves and how long it took in between the 50 test and the 200 test:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Coin_Savvvy
The astounding similarity of ETH bearmarket 2018 and BTC in 2014I stumbled upon this fractal similarity which is quite amazing in its really high degree of similar behaviour. We can see that all the areas denoted with 1-4 are matching almost exactly. So whtat does this mean for the future behaviour? It would mean that we'll see a slow climb in Nov/Dec, a sharp sell-off in January at point A, which could fit, because historically January has not been a good month for BTC and alts. Then, a rally in March, and then the subsequent slow start of the next bullrun, which as we know builds up very slowly, so I assume the peak in this scenario would be in 2021. I am still remaining neutral though, because first, BTC must break the logarithmic resistance for me to see this scenario as a very high probability scenario. But it certainly is a probable scenario. This means that we are seeing the bottom right now, and we'll basically have a few more months of boring sideways, until the next bullrun peaks up steam in mid to end of 2019.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by SebastianofMoon
14
2014 crash comparison (final stage) : the compression & entryFollowing on from the almighty 2014 crash comparison I made months ago and that went pretty crazy buzzy.. I think that after the patience, the possible entry point described back then is now potentially reached. Regarding this, I just made a first BTC call today. I putted 5% of my capital here on a Buy&Hold trade which means there is no stop loss on this trade. Some ppl may have thought I was just riding the crypto wave to scam ppl and gather subscribers back then... well... here I am today proving you wrong. I just sold according to the plan until today where I make exactly what I told you months ago... making the actual bullish speculative entry ! Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;) That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users. Kindly, Phil
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by PRO_Indicators
230
BTC comparison 2014 / 2018, break up or down?I have tracked BTC/USD 2014 market movements and correlated them to the current Bitcoin chart, marking possible similarities, resistances & breakouts. The current position of Bitcoin after the recent rally is drawing closer to the upper resistance, so will BTC breakout - fakeout or drop down to the lower resistance - decision time is looming with Bitcoin maintaning it's price ranging at 6500 USD its on course for a clash with the upper resistance by Mid October at any rate.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by mmacwj
Where we are now in the 2014/15 comparison So far, this bearmarket is remarkably similar to the 2014/15 one. So much so, that I often think: This can't be, this is too predictable. Ok, sure, the exact behavior is different, spikes and dumps occur not exactly at the same times and the fractal looks a bit different. But the general behaviour is the same: 1. Slow grind down along an exponential falling resistance line (linear falling in log chart, the red line) 2. Unable to push through daily MA200 => dumps when failing to push through 3. Short pump spikes followed by long grinds down This makes me think that we'll continue to see new lows like in 2014/15 until mid 2019, when the people will start talking about the good old halving again, which will take place in mid 2020. Surely this will again generate hype, leading to a slow rise, leading to the start of the next bull cycle when the halving really kicks in, and good news will start taking effect, like potential ETF, lightning network, positive regulations etc. Short term short, longterm always long on BTC :)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by SebastianofMoon
4
2014 Bear Run: Fractal, Tailor-Made or AdjustedDear Traders, the following is an update on my previous fractal study. The adjustments on the Historical Bear Run of 2013/2014 are mainly: volatility & length. At the moment, accumulation is the main attraction. Theoretically, August should bring us a fanatical bull flag and mid-September should be the real spring of the accumulation phase, ending the bear season. I don't think it is wise to follow fractals blindly, but it sure is fun. Only time will tell. Have fun & take care, S.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by sgtview
Holding steady at a higher low.We are currently forming another bearflag but have also(for now at least) potentially formed a higher low by not dipping below $5730. The rsi and stochrsi on the 4hr also seemed primed for an upward shift as well. If we were to break upward here and somehow surpass 6300 we would essentially form a higher low/higher high sequence as well so this is what I will be watching for. Since 2018 has essentially unfolded as a fractal of the 2014 bear market thus far it would not be that surprising if we were able to go on another uptrend run back up to around 9.7k to continue that fractal. Of course there's no guarantee that fractal will continue the whole year but so far it has been pretty accurate...and for that accuracy to continue...9.7k is where we may head over the next month or so....if not then the bear flag will likely breakdown and continue towards the initial target of 5.3k and essentially even further. For now until I see a break one way or the other this idea will be listed as neutral.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
BTC: Most people get the fractal wrong Hi, just a quick update of where I think we are right now in the grand scheme of things. I see a lot of 2014 fractal similarity charts, but imho most are wrong. They are much too fast, and predict the bottom of 3k already in a few months. That would be insane, since the halving in June 2020 is still 2 years away. I only see a new rally possible shortly before the halving, getting into full swing after the halving, and reaching the top in 2022 at 100K. So we need more time for this bearmarket to evolve. I think we are even a bit slower than 2014/2015, if I look at the fractal similarity. I can clearly identify the ABCDE pattern in 2014 with the one now, seeing also how the weekly Bollinger band distorts, is very similar to where we were in March 2014. This would mean that we are about 25% slower this correction than back then. If you continue with this train of thought, I get the bottom in April 2019, the whole of 2019 being basically flat afterwards with a small spike here and there, but the real rally taking off again in early 2020, and picking up full speed in 2021, and an insane top in 2022. It would make no sense for this correction to be faster than in 2014, since BTC is like a giant super organism which is growing and growing and getting bigger, and has therefore more inertia, and it gets harder and harder for this giant monster to change its path. Therefore BTC will get slower over time, which makes sense, since more and more people will be involved in BTC in the future. I hope this makes some sense for you too. So now I think we'll be going down to 4xxx, probably around 4800 if I look at the weekly Bollinger bands, BTC won't go very far below the lower Bollinger band in this dump, and then a sharp rebound, possibly reaching as high as 9900 again.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by SebastianofMoon
9