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2015

BTC wyckoff Accumulation back in 2015I think taking a look at the past is one of the best ways to predict the future. History repeats itself over and over again. Wyckoff always emphazised Volume as the best Indicator. He also challenged us to ask ourselves "what is the composite man doing right now?" I think he was spreading FUD like crazy, while accumulating Phase C Remeber what the Spring aka Shakeout is: It’s usually the last attempt of the Composite Man to acquire shares at cheap prices before the mark-up move. Creating selling pressure forces retail traders to think that the current trading range will end in the mark-down movement (along with FUD) and exit or reverse their positions. The Composite Man waits for breakout to create enough liquidity and then rapidly covers all available supply resulting in price getting back into trading range. Test: A small retracement to check if there is enough support at the bottom of the trading range after a shakeout. The Composite Man stops his buying pressure (as we see on VOL) and checks if the market has enough demand to not let price fall below the trading range. If so, the market is ready for the mark-up move. If not – the Composite Man continues his accumulation of available supply Phase D LPS: is the reaction after a Test rally. It usually retests previous levels which were considered a resistance. These reactions are usually quite slow and have no volume (as we see right now!) Right now for BTC the VOL should stay low, because the Institutions stopped buying and manipulating, to check if the retail is ready to push the price up, or if there is any major selling pressure. This might take a while and might be a little more back and forth than in 2015. Once we break above 40-42k and CONFIRM it as support the Volume will come back in and from their we good.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by maxwayne23
1
BTCUSD: Extrapolating 2014 Correction - Could $6,500 Be The Low?Sometimes the simplest extrapolations are best. No indicators on this chart, this is a pure extrapolation of the 2014-2015 correction and accumulation phase, that has notable similarities with the current fractal in play. Could $6,500 be the new swing low? Absolutely. This would imply an accumulation zone between $6.5-$8.3K for approximately 40 weeks, with the current correction lasting a reasonable 1 Year. This current extrapolation points to a breakout in price above $14K in July 2020, followed by a new all time high 6 months later in February 2021. See related analysis: Two & Four Year MA's Claim It's Time To Accumulate As well as bearish analysis: Miner Capitulation Is Here... Back Down To $3,800? Bitcoin Repeating History: 10 Part TA Series On Repeating Past Patterns Full series with recent updates: bitcointalk.org
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by dragononcrypto
AUDCHF - Now it gets interestingTwo weeks ago I sketched this to answer a question in one of the chat rooms and forgot to publish it as idea. It is a quick one because today I have little time to elaborate on my ideas. Look at the remarkable double bottom of August '15 with August '19. Something tells e that we are going to see a correction of what happened January 2015. This combined with the idea of three confuencoing cycles and a market primed for a UJ Seasonality opening bell we could see some fireworks today and the coming days if not weeks. Interesting times!
Long
by Deep-Peat-Shark
1
Bitcoin: Blast from the Past... But the Future is Now!Let me take a dive into price action today and how it has to do with 2014-2015 on a weekly chart. My name is Coin Savvy and I like charts. I really like Bitcoin too and have been involved ever since $2000 in May of 2017 and WOW let me tell you what a ride so far... let's get into this thing. Let me show you a monthly chart of Bitcoin in 2015 with a 50 ema (red) and a 200 ema (blue) with price action: If we take a look at the above chart you can see some date ranges as well as two yellow circles, let me explain. 1.) The first date range is from the top of the rally in Nov 2013 ($1200) to the bottom of the bear market in Jan 2015 ($150) after the rally. This lasted 413 days (a little over a year) . 2.) The second date range is from the bottom of the bear market in Jan 2015 ($150) to the local top in July 2015 ($300) before the bull rally to 20k in Dec 2018. This lasted 175 days (half a year) 3.) The next set of date ranges start at the top of the rally in Jan 2017 ($20,000) to the POSSIBLE bottom of the bear market in Dec 2018 ($3100) POSSIBLE POSSIBLE POSSIBLE !!! . This lasted 364 days (a year). 4.) The second set of those date ranges start at the POSSIBLE bottom of the bear market in Dec 2018 ($3100) to the POSSIBLE local top ($5600). This lasted 133 days (4 months) 5.) Those yellow circles, if you haven't already guessed it, is the confluence of 2015 and 2019. I have reason to believe that we are in a similar spot now compared to 2015, let me explain very simply: Blast from the Past: If we look at the 50 (red) and the 200 (blue) EMA's, we can see that price action broke the 50 ema bearish in 2014 during its bear market and then tested it as resistance later in July 2015 ($300) then fell to test the 200 ema as support and held in Aug-Sept 2015 ($200) then price action tested and broke that same 50 ema bullish right after to start the bull market to 20k and never crossed below until the 2018-2019 bear market. The Future is Now: If we look at the 50 (red) and the 200 (blue) EMA's, we can see that price action broke the 50 ema bearish in 2018 during its bear market and then tested it as resistance literally the past few weeks ($5200) and now we are at a standstill... The question is, do we get a short squeeze to get us into the 6k-7k region (this will be caused by price action getting above $5350 and $5600 in the near future respectively in my opinion) or are we going to get a rejection from the 50 weekly ema like we did in 2015 to send us back down to the 200 ema around $4200 to test that as resistance then go ahead and break that 50 ema to send us to the next bull market or as others call it MOOOOOOOOONNNNNN Nobody knows but this is a very interesting similarity and if the latter comes true and history repeats itself... wow... just wow. So moral of the story is start saving some dollars to deploy into Bitcoin before the next bull run... it's happening faster than last year if history were to repeat itself. Thanks for reading and I hope you have a nice night! Best, Coin Savvy PS: Here is another chart regarding percentage moves and how long it took in between the 50 test and the 200 test:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Coin_Savvvy
2015 bottom VS 2019 bottom*** This article is not for sell or buy. If you liked this idea, please, 'Thumbs up', 'Follow', 'Comment'~^^ If you look at the title, main chart, and secondary chart, you can easily understand. Therefore, the explanation is omitted. [ ] 13.11 ~ 17.12 (about 1470d) >> 0.85% >> [ ] 17.12 ~ 21.05 (about 1250d) --------------------------------------------------------------------- (1-1) 13.11 ~ 14.12 (about 400d) >> 0.85% >> (2-1) 17.12 ~ 18.11 (about 340d) (1-2) 14.12 ~ 15.10 (about 300d) >> 0.85% >> (2-2) 18.11 ~ 19.07 (about 255d) (1-3) 15.10 ~ 17.03 (about 500d) >> 0.85% >> (2-3) 19.07 ~ 20.09 (about 425d) (1-4) 17.03 ~ 17.12 (about 270d) >> 0.85% >> (2-4) 20.09 ~ 21.05 (about 230d) 0. the comparison of indicator : 50MA, 100MA, 200MA 1. Current Coin Market Status- Coin Market Cap : $ 184 Billion - Bitcoin Dominance : 53.4%- Volume by National Currencies : USD( 45.4% ), JPY( 39.0% ), KRW ( 2.0% ) 2. The Comparison of Coin Market Cap - Coin Market Cap : about $ 184 billion- Stock Market Cap around the world : about $ 50 trillion / about 0.37%- Korean Stock Market Cap : about $ 1760 billion / about 10%- Samsung Electronics Cap : about $ 240 billoion >Coin Market Cap 3. Futures Expiration date- CME : On the last Friday of every month at 4 pm- CBOE. : On Third Wednesday of each month at 10 pm 4. The Long-Term BTC Forecast- A similarity with the 2015 bottom &Influence of halving kr.tradingview.com The rising curve by pattern
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by pkb6698
29
Bitcoin: Comparison with 2015.. Are the bulls being trapped?Yesterday I made the case that presuming the end of the bear may be a bit premature. Comparing the weekly chart to the weekly chart of 2015 shows this as well. I'm comparing this weeks candle to the candle of the 29th of June. Now here is where I'm being a bit premature, as this weeks candle is still young and bitcoin being bitcoin could close anywhere between 0 and infinity. But for arguments sake, let's assume that this candle will close above 4600. Keep in mind that if this is not the case, everything I say from won't really be true anymore. The reason for comparing this weeks candle to that 2015 candle is that they are both the first candles to print a bullish level 2 signal (blue L2 on the chart). Comparing the candles, the current candle definitely looks more bullish, but also prints an exhaustion signal (red dot). This give me more reason to be cautious to the bullish side. The bullish L2 signal in 2015 resulted in a minor pullback to just below the ribbon. The ribbon then remained neutral (grey), and turned bullish (blue) after the indicator printed a second bullish L2 signal. That was the start of the next bull market (to me at least..) in 2015. I'm looking for something similar to happen this time: for the first bullish L2 signal to fail to turn the ribbon bullish and the market to pullback. To where? Well, I don't know. And nobody really does.. Will that pullback take us to new lows? Perhaps, and there are a number of cases to be made in its favour. The first and foremost is the amount of hope that the space still has. The catharsis this upmove caused is evident I think.. This does not mean we won't go higher, just that this hope (unfortunately) needs to be crushed before the bear is over. And this sets up for nasty bull traps.. Looking at 2015 you can see that trap laid out clearly, with a drop of about 33% after the first L2 signal printed. If it goes lower, how low will it go? Again, I don't know. I won't bore you with the obvious levels, truth is, it can spike anywhere between 3000 and 500, perhaps even lower. It may be the final axe coming down, and how much force that axe needs to break the hope is unclear. The only clear thing, I do not fancy being on the receiving side of that blade. Waiting it out here seems to be the wisest option.. Will this time be different? How many reasons can you think of why it will be different? How bad do you want it to be different? "Check yo'self, before you rek yo'self" a wise man once said...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DariusZen
The astounding similarity of ETH bearmarket 2018 and BTC in 2014I stumbled upon this fractal similarity which is quite amazing in its really high degree of similar behaviour. We can see that all the areas denoted with 1-4 are matching almost exactly. So whtat does this mean for the future behaviour? It would mean that we'll see a slow climb in Nov/Dec, a sharp sell-off in January at point A, which could fit, because historically January has not been a good month for BTC and alts. Then, a rally in March, and then the subsequent slow start of the next bullrun, which as we know builds up very slowly, so I assume the peak in this scenario would be in 2021. I am still remaining neutral though, because first, BTC must break the logarithmic resistance for me to see this scenario as a very high probability scenario. But it certainly is a probable scenario. This means that we are seeing the bottom right now, and we'll basically have a few more months of boring sideways, until the next bullrun peaks up steam in mid to end of 2019.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by SebastianofMoon
14
Bitcoin 2018 Half Year PredictionBasing this off of basic indicators. The first circle is after the first death cross between the EMA 50 and 100 day moving average at the beginning of the 2015 Bull run that peaked in 2018. The second circle marks the second death cross where the 50 and 100 day moving averages cross indicating a possible end to this 2 year bull run and going bearish. I believe we will become bearish for a few months while Alt Coins have the possibility to become bullish. I also believe during this time is when a lot of coins trading in USD pairs will seperate their prices from Bitcoin and possibly other coins overtaking BTC. I am still holding in alts but no longer long term holding in BTC. For BTC to reach 70-100K it would need widespread adoption by the masses which can only be possible by a collapse of fiat currency or a financial crash. This would leverage the market to turn to gold, cryptocurrencies, and other assets to store their wealth. But if many of the alts best suitable for currency unmarried their prices to BTC that would separate a big part of the Alt Coin market from the BTC market. Meaning alt coin market cap would not be included in the Bitcoin market cap. Maybe this is the year BTC looses its crown in being the king?
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by UnknownUnicorn1968121
DJIA vs. DJTA Divergence Supporting Diverging DJIA Price and RSIAs pointed out in a separate comment, the current price/indicator setup increasingly resembles that of 2000 and 2007, immediately before indices' pronounced price declines. A look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average confirms that pessimistic view. Beginning in mid-2007, the DJTA started to trend downwards, while the DJIA remained caught in a relatively narrow trading range over the course of 2007 until early 2008. This pattern is currently being repeated, as the DJTA finds itself in a downward trend which started in late 2014, while the DJIA has been flat over the same time period. Even more significant, in my view, is the divergence between the recent DJIA' price movement and the Relative Strength Index. It should be pointed out that the longer a divergence persists, the stronger its explanatory power - and eventually the correction it calls for. Having lasted for more than two years, the current discrepancy has persisted significantly longer than the divergence in 2007, which remained for about half a year, before indices fell by about 50%.
DJ:DJIShort
by thsumlauft
DJIA vs. DJTA Divergence Supporting Diverging DJIA Price and RSIAs pointed out in a separate comment, the current price/indicator setup increasingly resembles that of 2000 and 2007, immediately before indices' pronounced price declines. See the following chart for the parallels between 2000, 2007 and now, as previously posted: A look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average confirms that pessimistic view. Beginning in mid-2007, the DJTA started to trend downwards, while the DJIA remained caught in a relatively narrow trading range over the course of 2007 until early 2008. This pattern is currently being repeated, as the DJTA finds itself in a downward trend which started in late 2014, while the DJIA has been flat over the same time period. Even more signficant, in my view, is the divergence between DJIA's price movement and the RSI, which is apparent since early 2013. It is worthwhile to point out that the longer such a divergence lasts, the stronger is its explanatory power - and eventually the correction it calls for. With the current divergence between price and RSI having started more than two years ago, this is substantially longer than the roughly half year discrepancy we experienced in 2007, before prices corrected about 50%.
DJ:DJIShort
by thsumlauft
Warning! Touch of 215-223 Area for a 4th Time can trigger DoomAn warning update on my previous chart from a 2-3 weeks ago roughly, we see that BTC decided to delay the inevitable by not touching down a 4th time at the time I published my initial chart back then. Instead it decided to consolidate furthermore and attempted a break out again only to be stopped at the top of the downtrend channel outlined on my chart by the red line. The demand is so low for BTC that market makers could not push it to regain 250-260. The bearish magnet effect is clearly seen and BTC will touch for a 4th time and wash down within the next 72 hours most likely. See annotation on chart as usual! Please zoom in to see all the levels properly. This level is really dangerous to trade, you can just wait for the wash-down or short and sit down and watch the show. But I have outlined additional scenario in case we do get a bounce from 210-216 level. If the bounce does occur then we will retest 228-232 then drop in total capitulation down to156-180 initially (a bounce not shown on the chart is very possible from there to 215 or 260 due to a double bottom) then $123 to $98 range. But we could also fail to bounce and wash down to 156-178 area and maybe bounce there a little before washing down further.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by BitcoinGuru
3