2020election — Trading Ideas on TradingView

No Election Winner For Weeks, No Problem Election day is finally here. My wave projections have changed a little, but not for the worst. I previously suspected us to be near the end of a major Grand SuperCycle, but I no longer believe that is the case. I shifted some of my waves around after running multiple tests and found a different mapping of the waves provided for more consistent ratios of wave lengths and movements. I previously had the “COVID crash” ending at Cycle wave 4 and leaving us about 18 months to complete the final Cycle wave 5. I now have that bottom in March ending Cycle wave 2 after it began in September 2019. Furthermore, instead of Cycle wave 1 only lasting a few years (2009 to 2011), I now had it run 9 years (March 2009 to September 2019. This all means the major market crash I was projecting in 2022 is now pushed to 2030 or later. Also, we are in for a major market boom beginning this December. But first, we must move down. The next few weeks will likely be difficult as we wait for results, legal challenges, and other circus acts. I believe we are in the early stages of Intermediate wave 2. The top we find today, or likely found this morning will be the end of Minute wave 4 and we should find the end of Minute wave 5 / Minor wave A on Thursday around 3150.39. We should tick up for Minor wave B until around November 20 with a top around 3384.68. We should finally end Intermediate wave 2 in mid-December (Dec 14-17) around 3024.09. THE NUMBERS Why those levels on those dates? Intermediate wave 2’s typically retrace the length of wave 1 by 34.49%. This would have wave 2 lasting about 48 trading days. Of those days, wave A normally comprises 37.55% (18 days), B is 25.20% (12 days), and C is 37.24% (18 days). Intermediate wave 2 typically retraces the movement of wave 1 by about 45%. The minimum retracement over the past 88 years is 28.84%. I am conservatively sticking with a retracement around Fibonacci 38.2%. This would have wave 2 ending around 3021.44. Wave A typically accounts for 77.9% of the wave’s overall movement which would equate to a drop of 399.46 or a bottom around 3150.39. Wave B makes up 45.69% of the total or a rise of 234.29 points with a top around 3384.68. Finally wave C accounts for 70.32% of the larger wave which is a drop of 360.59 with the bottom around 3024.09. REAL WORLD CAUSATION Why the roller coaster? Lack of a clear winner tonight will likely cause some anxiety, additionally multiple states will not have all ballots counted until early next week. We may get the first glimpse of a projected winner after that but Congress must make it official and the lawyers on either side will likely be busy. Right now, Electoral College vote is set for December 14 and the lame duck Congress would certify shortly after. Once the winner is declared the jubilation will begin. I think I know who wins based on the trajectory of the market. We are about to start Intermediate wave 3 in Cycle wave 3 in Primary wave 1. This will lead to huge gains on continued cheap debt. The market is working on its day of reckoning when debt will be due. This date will be catastrophic, especially if we have another decade or more of cheap debt to rack up. Beyond 2030 will certainly see a prolonged great depression, but worrying about that now is unnecessary as the event is inevitable. If the index moves above 3466 before it drops below 3234, my projections and even wave structure could be wrong. We shall see. Let me know where you think this mess is going. Thanks for reading.

We Should Hit ATHs Soon. Stimulus?It has been a very long time since Intermediate wave 5 failed to move above the peak of Intermediate wave 3. With it being 2020 and the world on fire, maybe this is the exception. IMHO I doubt it. Wave 3 peaked in early September at 3588.11. I project not only will our current wave 5 surpass that, but my projection has the top around 3639. This is not unrealistic. The crazier part of the forecast is this top occurring before election day, more specifically around October 29. This is not much time considering about 75 hours of trading will occur between my marked end of Minor wave 4 on October 15. Minor wave 3 moved 45 hours. The ratio of Minor wave 3 hours to the projected Minor wave 5 hours is 0.6. This is just slightly below the average and median relationships for these waves which is around 0.73-0.83. This could also mean Minor wave 5 lasts less than 75 hours, give or take a few trading days. The target levels are still in line with those I projected months ago. I do not necessarily see a top above 3664, but we should get above 3610. The highest frequency of data points for a top are around 3639 so this is my official target. A potential contributing factor to such a run over a short amount of time could be actual passage of stimulus by the Congress, or continued hopium that finally fails to deliver by election day. On a side note I have Apple running up and above at least 133, possibly 140. When will both of these runups occur, around October 29. The close of trading on October 29 coincides with Apple's earnings call (my initial take is earnings may be much worse than expected). The drop I have occurring after this date will be massive (about 750 points on the S&P 500 Index). Likely contributors are election "surprise", delayed election results, legal fighting/winner uncertainty, failed stimulus and lame duck politicians, COVID 2.0/flu season, even more rioting, war in the world, or some other black swan. But don't worry, the drop will be temporary. I am forecasting a bottom somewhere in Q1 of 2021 and then ATHs again. I will keep posting updates as more waves are completed (or I think they complete and scrape egg off my face).

The Climax of the Crisis Era - Joe Biden is no Obama Earlier this year, when Biden won the nomination. I was pretty sure he had a good shot at taking the win. Let's face it, we're living in the climax of a Crisis Generation*, and bizarre things always happen during times like these. According to the Strauss-Howe Theory, the eponymous name elaborated by the two in the 1997 book, The Fourth Turning , there are historical cycles we are apart of that generally last 80 years. 4 generations make up these cycles, they call saeculums, that last 20-ish years. Right now, we are in a crisis generation that normally brings about the end to a previous culture/way of life for a new one, or evolves into a new one. So when you look at points I've brought up in my previous ideas, you can see how America, and the rest of the world (but for my sake, America), are in a turning point era where what was previously considered zany and unlikely becomes the new flavor of the week/month/year. This is the main crux to the argument for Trump losing to Biden, much how in the last crisis generation 1930s/1940s, Herbert Hoover lost to the somewhat controversial and not-so popular Franklin Roosevelt, because of Hoover's placement in time. en.wikipedia.org Strauss-Howe Theory Hoover's presidency was marred by the development of a depression that has now been considered to be caused, or at least prolonged, by him. Really, he just used the same get-out-of-jail-free card that every president has used since in economic turmoil - bailouts, keeping wages high, and running the money printing presses. The same failure economic policies he implemented were copied by Franklin Roosevelt, but on steroids, and helped keep the US in a depression until the end of WWII. We might think the war prolonged the depression, which obviously had an effect, but when you look at the big picture, many Americans had already been long-suffering before we jumped in for the last 3 1/2 years to clean up the mess the world had started (not to underestimate the Europeans who fought hard, Africans who were thrown into a war they shouldn't have been apart of, and Chinese who were raped and pillaged by wannabe-Samurai Warriors) Many "journalists" have compared Trump to Hoover because of Hoover's whole conservative stance on immigration and his friendliness towards tariffs. That's all well and good, until you look at the fact Trump has developed such a strong base of supporters. The once-trusted media who brought us unrestrained, generally unbiased facts about these elections are now, and let's be real, very biased, and have all their financial interests pinned to a Biden presidency. If one can look at how manufactured, and divisive the media has been, then one can start to understand the importance of anecdotal evidence. Nowadays, with how our echo (masochistic self-torture) chambers, there's no way to get the real stiffy on where the public is at on issues, other than our genuine personal experience. For me, I have had the blessing to analyze one of the most important states in the Union, culturally and economically, a state that has both strong supporters for both sides, and it has helped me form a sturdy grasp on what the average joe six-pack thinks about the world we are in. Aside from Biden's terrible rally turnouts, how far and few between they are, how his platform, if he has one at all, has become about distancing himself from the only strong Democratic Party supporters, socialists, and not to mention his endless old fart gaffs, I have seen an interesting change in how American culture has changed in my relatively short lifespan. The same vim and love for Obama that was media-sponsored and publicly adorned - a seemingly strong, young man with a glimmer in his eyes and nothing but optimism for the future, that was made into a grey, blob of a 2-term presidency that has all-but been forgotten for how uneventful and corporatized it was, is not what we have for either Trump nor Biden. When I was a little kid and I had family friends and teachers who were once-Republican voters instead voting for Obama, it revealed at least some kind of unification among Americans for an idea. Albeit, a very general, unenlightened idea that at best was about free stuff for special interest groups. There was a media/public in-tandem love for Obama that couldn't be hindered by what was seen as a corporation-loving, out-of-touch evangelical sect of conservatives that ran the country, media, and public thought. Though, nowadays, the tables have turned for everyone. Young liberals are disenchanted with the Democratic Party and yearn for some socialist revolution. Nobody except democrat boomers and detached, high-falutin' progressives are blind enough to worship the TV and fake news that was once so potent in the American lifestyle. With Trump's sobering 2016 victory came a new experience to the American meta - The Shy Tory Factor, or what I'll call the Silent Majority Effect. en.wikipedia.org With important, working class states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Ohio all going for Trump in 2016, it brought a stark reminder of a huge amount of people in this country who have felt long-forgotten as their once-enriched states that saw the American Experience at its height in much of the 20th century, fall to job outsourcing, socialist embankment in their local governments, crime spikes, and loss of buying power. These people looked to Trump as their only way out. He brought that vim and vigor that Obama brought in 2008, but with a real message - a message that America still had strength, could still rise above its crumbling infrastructure, and could be the last bastion at odds with neoliberal Europeans, dangerous terrorist-supporting OPEC countries, and a communist Chinese empire. He wanted to Make America Great Again. And when you watch his speeches and his debates from that campaign trail, which is something I have done ritually every year since, you see how he spoke truth to power. He went after how the Fed manipulated currency, how China had to "pay up", and how the US had been cheated for decades. While you might disagree, and I definitely do disagree with how he blamed foreign nations for stealing our buying power, when really we've been doing it to ourselves by selling off our entire infrastructure for lives of relative luxury, the idea was still strong. He harkened back to a time the US had real strength and optimism for the future. The Silent Majority went for him. They were pissed off, and wanted a change, but unfortunately, I will say, Trump has been just as much of a spender and clamorer for MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) as much as any other president would have, but that is unimportant to what is still so effervescent about his message, and how he has continued to do everything right in his 2020 campaign. His first term hasn't left anyone who voted for him unconvinced of his power. They are even stronger in supporting him. When I travel across my state, all I see are vivacious supporters building beautiful messages of prayer and support for Trump, hundreds of miles of Trump flags, signs, and posters, big F250s with Trump and American flags on the back. www.youtube.com It has become very clear that Trump is a strong speaker and even at his ripe old age, can still battle with the same passion. Alternatively, the Biden campaign has had a lack of rallies, terrible turnout, a platform that is unclear what it really wants aside from being anti-Trump and rhetorically anti-Socialist. This clear disparity between the abilities of both candidates, and the strength of both groups of supporters, is a testament to why Trump will win this election. Biden could've won if he took a firm position, and had the same vim Trump did, and spoke to the socialist aura of his supporters, but instead, Biden will get the same treatment Hillary did - a shallow, "grr we hate racist, but I wanna stay home and watch True Blood so wtvr" support from most liberals, and a last-time at seeming like relevant heroes who totally didn't ruin the country for the past 60 years Boomers. But in Crisis eras, we just have to wait and see. But as I said, the anecdotes matter, not so much whatever the media is throwing out. Biden is no Hillary, and Hillary was certainly no Obama. The support has waned, and we haven't seen a strong Democratic candidate since Bill Clinton, who let's be real, was able to win the South a lot easier because of his southern drawl. Al Gore, John Kerry, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Hillary Clinton, and Joe Biden all have one thing in common - they are uninspiring, forgettable, platform-lacking candidates who have all-but become jokes. John McCain was probably the best out of all of the, but again, could not fight against the strong meme of the handsome, optimistic Obama. Biden will be remembered, along with the other losers, as a weirdo pedo who could barely talk for 20 minutes, couldn't garner any support, and only had the opportunity to fight Trump because Pocahontas and gang dropped out to let loser Biden take their delegates (I wonder what that meeting was like). Imagine if in 2016, the Republicans had forced everyone out to let Jeb Bush win - we woulda been living under a fascist Hillary dystopia right now. Trump will win, and while I'm no fan of either side, I have seen where the American consciousness is at. The Democrats have an inability to get a likeable, truth-speaking candidate out there, even if his/her truth is marred with inconsistencies and nonsense hopes and dreams. "As we must account for every idle word, so we must account for every idle silence ." - Benjamin Franklin

The Finishing Moves For This Week After putting up my initial buckshot for the next month, some movement has come into picture. I have Minor wave 1 ended on September 30 at 1400 which had it last just over 31 trading hours. This is 3 trading days earlier than my last forecast. This could mean I am wrong now, was previously, am still wrong, or most of my original forecast has slipped left and the marks will occur sooner than originally projected. A three day slide now brings the market top to the day of or day prior to Election Day 2020. This is absolutely possible with the likely unknowns set to occur November 3. We could be holding our breath for an outcome longer than we might have expected. I have forecasted Minor wave 2's movement which are set to find its bottom before the end of this week. Minor wave 2's for the index tend to retrace the length of wave 1 by 33-68%. A 40% retracement is closer to the mean and average while remaining conservative. This conservative estimate would have Minor wave 2 last around 12 hours. Another significant statistic is that wave 1 is around 1.84 times the length of wave 2 which equates to roughly 14.5 hours for this wave 2. Lastly, Minor wave 1 tends to make up 22% of the length of the larger wave (Intermediate wave 5) it resides inside. Likewise, wave 2 makes up around 9.5% of that larger wave. Based on wave 1's length and possible contribution to the larger wave, Intermediate wave 5 could last around 145 hours and wave 2 could be 13 of them (SIDENOTE: 145 hours ends on October 22). I am projecting Minor wave 2 to last around 13.4 hours. The movement for Minor wave 2 seemed much less complex to locate. A fairly common wave 2 retracement is around 38% which is also near the common Fibonacci retracement of 38.2%. This could have wave 2 drop 69.96 points. Wave 1's movement in relation to the total movement of its larger Intermediate wave is around 45% while wave 2 is around 17%. This could mean Intermediate wave 5 gains around 409.13 points and Minor wave 2 only drops 69.55 (SIDENOTE: 409.13 points puts the top around 3618.58). Lastly, wave 1 tends to move 2.37 times wave 2 which could see a 77.68 point drop for Minor wave 2. I am forecasting a drop of roughly 70.56. Based on the forecasts, I have further attempted to identify the movement of Minute waves A, B, and C. Wave A tends to make up 35.54% of the larger wave's movement while B makes up 28.13% and C is 37.24%. Wave A tends to move 73.86% of the overall move, while B reverses course for 44.60% and C is 67.83%. I have placed the A, B, and 2 (Minor wave C) roughly when and where the waves should change course. This is setting up for a truly great entry point to "buy the dip." Minor wave 3 begins next week and could make for a few weeks of major gains. The catalyst? COVID stimulus is not dead yet and could find an agreement before Congressional recess this weekend or early next week.

MSFT to $208 by end of week Microsoft is hitting higher highs and trending upward. Even though we have an upward trend, we are due for a higher low. I predict this higher low will hit this week with a low of $208. I will be posting daily candle stick segments to link to this publication. With election uncertainty we can expect some market volatility and we should be expecting to see some choppiness throughout the election process. This is a short term short.

Path to NEW ATHs Before Election Day This is the estimated track to election day. The downside should be behind us. Each Minor wave is based on its average make-up of the larger wave it is apart of. Each Minute wave inside of the Minors is the same concept. I will continue to publish and adjust as we complete each wave. This is just the initial blueprint.

One week left for bears before moonshot Even though the downturn started a few days later than planned, it still met the expected drop. Wave A could have occurred until the end of trading on Friday, but it may have ended Friday morning at 1030. The red down arrows and one green up arrow are based on Intermediate Wave 3 lasting 46 days and with its move extending beyond Intermediate Wave 1's movement by 134.09%. These arrows are a rough projection of movement. There length may not line up perfectly but points moved are typically much more accurate. There are two possible tracks for the week. Option 1: Wave A may be in the early stages and have only completed wave 2 of wave A. This would drive the index down drastically at some point this week, before a bounce up and then more downward movement possibly with a bottom next week. A significant upward wave B would need to occur before the end of next week and then another week or too of significant drops until wave C finds its bottom. THIS COURSE IS UNLIKELY. I assess the next one to be most likely. Option 2: Wave A did in fact complete itself at 1030 Friday. This would mean it lasted roughly 18 30-minute bars instead of the projected 29. The projected top to bottom movement of Wave A was 246.25 versus the actual of 238.48. Wave B's projected move was 145.44 over 20 30-minute bars. With wave B's likely end, it only lasted 9 bars and climbed 105.51. Based on my analysis, B waves typically last around 75% the length of their wave As. This B wave would be half of that, which is not abnormal, but could mean wave B moves a little higher over the first 2 hours of trading on Tuesday. Wave C was initially projected to drop 223.11 over 33 bars. Wave C can still do this, especially if wave B moves up toward 3487 early on Tuesday. If wave B does not find a new top by 1130 Tuesday, wave C could be in full force. With wave B starting early by 22 30-minute bars, wave C could end early by 22 bars or more. The earliest end for wave C is 1030 Thursday. If wave B continues for a few more bars, wave C should find a solid bottom before 1430 Friday. It might be a little odd to sell during the course of a week, albeit it a shortened week, just to come off the bottom for the final 90 minutes of the week. A more likely action would be wave C's bottom earlier in the day Friday or the following Monday. Long-term projection is still on track for a rise to new all-time highs before mid-October, followed by 700-800 point decline through Mach 2021, and a massive rise to new all-time highs again before finally crashing in early 2022. We will see what happens. Keep checking back as we track this wild ride to the end in early 2022.

Market moves down for 2 weeks With fresh stock splits, tightening election polls, eviction madness about to start, more schools open, the Fed, Congressional inaction, COVID positivity rates ready to climb, and maybe football, The first 2 weeks in September will bump lower. I am not using those events to justify the analysis but the catalyst could be in there somewhere. I am using enhanced Elliott Wave analysis for the following modeling and projections. Intermediate wave 3 was strong, but was set to end. Initial forecast was for it to last around 42 days, it made it to 43 on Friday. Intermediate wave 4 should last around 7-13 trading days. My specific target is 10.1 days based on my models. Wave A typically lasts 39% of the the overall length of the larger wave (Intermediate wave 4). Wave B typically lasts 25%, and wave C is 37%. The price drop could be greater than 225 points, but my specific forecast is a drop to around 3310 or 199.23 points from the ATH. Wave A typically moves 74.5% of the overall drop. Wave B typically gains 45% points of the overall drop and wave C drops about 67%. All told. I have wave A lasting about 3.9 days and dropping 149 points. Wave B could gain for 2.5 days and claw back 90 points before wave C drops 134 points over 3.7 days. I have placed all of this on a 2 hour chart in order to track the movement better. I am overall long for now, but will be short through September 11, 2020.