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20yr

TLT - Ranging for nowLike everything Else the 007s are contending with an aggressive FED which is hell-bent on Full control. Long End 30/20 Cross, Short end muted to heavily Intervened, to put it mildly. Regardless - in Real Terms, Inflation continues to Eat and Feed on everything. ___________________________________________________________________ Even the DX is confused as to where to go and what to do there. Crypto continues to perform its SOAK FUNCTION. Sopping up excess liquidity in order to prevent errant behaviors elsewhere, by example AMC GME NOK and Penny's. ____________________________________________________________________ Keeping everyone and everything in a "Manic State" is working well for them. Not so much for Us...
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
Using Bond Yield Spread (30y-20y) to Predict FOMCMy approach to learning trading is to consume and apply what I learned in practical experiences. For that I like to study many different indicators and signals. One in particular I was following last week was the Bond Yield Spread, 30Y - 20Y, as an indicator of Fed Tightening and Liquidity Shocks. A Fintwit Market Expert explains it like this: ----- Spreads are explained by interest rates, the slope of yield curve, stock market volatility and the economic environment. Spreads widen when bond traders become less willing to replenish the order book. A significant widening of the already wide spread between the 20Yr and 30Y recently appeared on Nov 24 and, yesterday, proved prescient. This was a reflection of the bond markets' doubt in the Fed’s mantra that inflation would prove transitory. Inversion in and widening of the 20-yr 30-yr spread has been a leading indicator that precedes the Fed’s tightening. ----- This trend of negative spread continued to widen until it hit -0.11 on Dec 2. It's why I posted such a Bearish outlook on Dec 3. Then I noticed before close on Dec 3 the news was far to Bearish and it felt like a trap, so I switched Long EOD Friday before close and started posting Bullish Charts. I added an indicator to this chart at the bottom and you can see the trend continues positive and recently pulled up from the the very critical -0.06 to -0.0.7 as pointed out at the end of Nov. It seems like there is a good support below 4700, so even if we slip below that pivot, there shouldn't be any significant pullbacks this week. Because of this, I will be leaning Long over 4700 and Short Below. Posts are observations only. Not Financial Advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SPYvsGME
2
10 Year Treasury Note - ROC's Building againRates of Change for Yields will face increasing Competition in the coming weeks. We anticipate further to quickly be met with YCC. Yields have been mixed at lows, attempting to Hang their Man. Central Banks receive their orders on High. Governments can no longer borrow to fund their annual spending. Digital "Currency" proposals from the WEF via Lagarde at the IMF, Echoed @ the BIS and then it's stepchild the ECB. The Debt can of worms can no longer be kicked down the road. Europe is in the final stages of collapsing under the Existing System. This will spread Cajun style, like a swamp Gator that eats everything that moves in the DEBT SWAMP. Rumors (Credible) of the Federal Reserve accepting Direct Deposits is halting the Primary Dealer network of Banks (First Abusers) who, via Trading Arms and partners such as BlackRock and VanGuard and many other smaller boutiques such as Gelber - have been able to manipulate ALL Markets without consequence... The Federal Government required them to sell their DEBT. This effort is very clearly coming to a decided end. Globally, the entire Financial System and edifice is being dumped on its Head.
CBOT:ZN1!
by HK_L61
3