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7pasos

Copper yet has not bounce but still can do it.This is a follow up of the last elliott wave analysis published 8 months ago www.tradingview.com The basic change is in the extended 5th. The diagonal as we expected did not work due keep the original wave count as originally stated is impossible due now will see the 3rd wave as the shortest. This can't be even in diagonals. So the best way to update it is by extending the 3rd wave as a double zigzag and then count the following up sided zigzag as a wave 4. This give us space for the fifth wave that is getting near to the 1 to 1 proyection for the 5) vs the traveled from the start of 1) to the end of 3) measured from the end of 4).
COMEX:HG1!
by 7pasos
1
AUD will break down its support but bounce back thenThe AUDUSD is poised to break below it's support. The last polls shows 5 times more analyst expecting a rate cut of 25bps for the next April 7th meeting than the previous weeks. 78% chances for rate cut priced by the Mkts (Rtrs). Even when previously have more preference for the gray wave count, the break below the wave ii (gray) discard this idea and places more odds for an expanded triangle as wave iv). As the down movement since iv) (black count) seems a single impulse this could be an small push lower the support to be bounced back short after, Should wait to see how this following up movement develops to better asses what will happen then.
Short
by 7pasos
The fall in Bund yield do not mean the same than beforeAs you could remember during the last Greek crisis the Bund Yield fell even to negative territory, this was due the haven factor in the biggest economy in EZ Now that every body says that the situation is much better than in the 2012 the Yield (as you can see in brown, remember that the price of Bund is inverse to it's yield) is even lower. Why? The mail reason is the demand that is expected from March due the QE announced by the ECB. This expectancy of scarcity of bunds is pushing the price of the bund upper (or the yield lower) so now by this ECB QE we can not use the Bund as a measure of fear so plain as we did in the past. The main evidence of it is the behavior of the DAX, the Equity is still rising (not as happened in the last peek of Bund price) Any Way the rise in Bund still very good correlation with the EUR.
B
by 7pasos
Cooper about to bounce?If we take a look from 2006 the full view seems very probably we are in a expanded flat. Actually the decline from 4.6480 seems to be the 1)) wave o a C] wave The decline have several hints to confirm this view: Wave 4th has a near to 50% retracement and is in a contractile triangle shape Wave 5th is the extended one and are near to its 61.8% portion of traveled by waves 1 to 3 Under this theory we must expect a deep retrace (probably in a zigzag fashion) to get back as much as the 4.000 area
COMEX:HG1!Long
by 7pasos
3
Nice example of triangle in a triangleNow the 4th wave in the EURUSD decline shows what could be a nice example of equivalent to an extension for triangles: a triangle in a triangle. Could sound confusing but its really simple: When a triangle is forming under elliott wave perspective, some times one of it's waves instead to be a zigzag (the most commonly accepted structure inside it) forms a new smaller triangle. This is more common with waves c, d or e. In this case we are witnessing a triangle as wave D) with all it's corrective structures ( A,B,C,D and E) inside it. Once finished the triangle that works as extension, the rest of the pattern continue as usual. As with extensions in other structures in a triangle, the pattern usually do not show more than one extension (but this is a guide and not a rule). What we should expect from here is more decline to complete the 5)) wave that is now forming.
by 7pasos
3
AUDUSD considering lenght of 2) we must be ending 4)Daily Elliott Wave Count The simetry in the elliott wave analysis is not a rule but an important guide to reduce de guess work to determine if a wave structure had been completed or not. In this case, as we expected a clear retrace had been done since the end of the impulsive pattern for wave 3) with a nice fibonacci's level of 38.2 (the most common level of retracement for wave 4). Adding to this you can observe a cross over in the AO to confirm this idea, our expectancy is that the price, as soon as shows an upside turn (that should not be far from here) should go up again to try to reach a new high.
Long
by 7pasos
2