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Airbnb: Upward pressureAirbnb's stock has once again come under noticeable upward pressure. However, we primarily classify these increases as a countermovement as part of the bearish wave 3 in turquoise – and accordingly expect a downward reversal soon. During wave 3, the price should finally fall below the support level at $108.60, and the subsequent wave 4 should also remain below this mark, so that the subsequent wave 5 can ultimately complete the entire turquoise downward impulse and the overarching corrective movement of the beige wave II.
NASDAQ:ABNB
by MarketIntel
Airbnb | ABNB Airbnb is the leader in Alternative Accommodations and experiences. I believe their community of individual hosts and strong brand differentiates them from travel peers. The emerging trend of long-term stays would boost Airbnb’s profit margins and expand the entire travel accommodation market size Airbnb estimates its current total addressable market to be $3.4 trillion, including $1.8 trillion in short term stays, $ 210 billion in long term stays, and $ 1.4 trillion in experiences. Coupled with a notably underpenetrated market size, the global travel market is growing at an above GDP rate. Airbnb’s current market penetration represents less than 2% of the share. As such, there is a huge runway for Airbnb’s growth over the next decade. In terms of competition, most Online Travel Agencies (OTA) provide traditional hotel accommodation (Marriott, Hilton, Accor, Wyndham, and InterContinental, for example). These OTAs are not the real competitors for Airbnb. Instead, Booking.com (BKNG) is expanding its traditional hotel business into the alternative accommodation industry. Expedia (EXPE) entered the alternative accommodation market via the acquisition of VRBO in December 2015. However, Airbnb has the first-mover advantage with a very strong brand. I believe Airbnb’s technology and supplies are superior to their peers, and it is hard for Expedia and Booking.com to compete against Airbnb in the alternative accommodations space. One of the main expenses for Online Travel Agencies is sales and marketing. They have to spend billions of dollars on Google, Facebook, and other social media platforms to attract traffic. The table below shows the sales and marketing expenses as a percentage of sales. Both Booking.com and Expedia spend almost half of their sales on sales and marketing. According to Airbnb’s disclosure, 80% of their website traffic comes from direct and organic search. In contrast, Booking.com and Expedia only have 60% direct traffic. In other words, Airbnb has the highest brand awareness among these travelers. With a high ratio of direct traffic and organic search, Airbnb spends much less than its peers. In Q1 FY23’s earning call, Airbnb indicated their sales and marketing expense as percentage of sales would remain the same in FY23. In late 2019, Airbnb's costs were rising, and growth was slowing. They spent a huge amount of money on performance marketing, which was basically selling their products as a commodity. Their product was looking less different from their competitors. When the COVID occurred, they lost 80% of sales in eight weeks, and they shut down all marketing spending. Interestingly, when the travel market rebounded, Airbnb's business came back to almost the same level as before, with much less marketing expenses. Currently, they spend much less on performance marketing, and most of their expenses are focused on their products/services. They have had 600,000 articles about Airbnb. These efforts have put Airbnb in a much better shape today. 90% of Airbnb's hosts are individuals. Airbnb can capitalize on the personal experience provided by these unique individual hosts, as opposed to a standard hotel service. Customers can find unique properties, differentiated amenities, as well as local insights from these individual hosts. Airbnb is putting in a lot of effort into the experience market. In Q4 FY22's earnings call, Airbnb expressed that they were beginning to ramp up their Airbnb Experience business and expect to launch more products/services over the coming years. In my opinion, Airbnb Experience may not bring notable direct sales to Airbnb, but it would enhance the stickiness and loyalty of Airbnb's customers. Airbnb Experience would make the Airbnb platform unique and boost their sales indirectly. Furthermore, Airbnb Experience could become more relevant with AI technology. In Q1 FY23's earnings call, Airbnb disclosed that they are building AI into their products. Airbnb is working with OpenAI ChatGPT, and Airbnb will embed ChatGPT into their app. The AI powered product will be launched next year. Leveraging AI technology, Airbnb can make their Airbnb Experience and accommodation recommendations more relevant to any consumer. To put it another way, Airbnb would know your preferences for travel destinations and accommodations before you start searching for anything. Long-term Stay: As disclosed, 20% of Airbnb's gross bookings are long-term stays currently. Long-term stays are the fastest-growing segment in terms of trip length. The pandemic also accelerated some inevitable growth for long-term stays. Long-term stays mean higher margins for both hosts and Airbnb. In Q1 FY23's earnings call, Airbnb indicated that long-term stays would be one of the biggest growth areas over the next five years. Airbnb made over a dozen upgrades to long-term stays based on affordability, and they also have new discounting tools for hosts on weekly and monthly stays. Airbnb expects more hosts to exclusively list long-term stays with Airbnb. In addition, 62% of Airbnb's guests are under 34 years old, and Airbnb is focusing on the next generation of travelers. These young customers are more likely to use Airbnb as the platform for long-term stays. The key thing to remember is that more long-term stays mean higher margins for Airbnb. Airbnb indicated that, in the current macroeconomic environment, consumers are looking for affordable ways to travel on Airbnb. Airbnb is adding more affordable accommodations to their platform. The average price of Airbnb rooms is only $67 per night. Before the pandemic, 80% of Airbnb's sales were coming from either cross-border or urban accommodations. The cross-border business would contribute more sales to Airbnb than other types of travel. The cross-border traveling could be very weak if high inflation persists. Despite this, the global travel market had been growing fast in the past, and I expect the growth will continue in the future. We are using a two-stage DCF model to estimate Airbnb’s fair value. In the model, we assume 20% of normalized sales growth rate, which we believe is quite conservative. We assume they can expand their operating margin by 30bps annually and will reach 25.5% in FY32.Their free cash flow conversion was quite healthy in the past, and we assume they will deliver 35.8% in FY32. In addition, we use 10% of WACC, and 15% of nonGAAP tax rate in the model. The present value of Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) over the next 10 years is estimated to be $32 billion, and the present value of terminal value is $88 billion. As such, the total enterprise value is estimated to be $120 billion. Adjusting gross debt and cash balance, the fair value of the stock price is $ 200, according to our estimate. All things considered, the huge underpenetrated market, strong brand awareness, and growing trend of long-term stays, in my opinion, will provide Airbnb with a huge runway for growth over the next decade. Their competitors are way behind them, and Airbnb would be the best player for the alternative accommodation service provider. In my view, the current stock price is significantly undervalued, and we encourage investors to buy during the weakness. at the end I always bet on Brian Chesky
NASDAQ:ABNBLong
by moonypto
2
Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB) Shares Surge on Bullish SentimentShares of Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB) surged by 5.8% during early trading after Bernstein SocGen Research Group reiterated a 'Buy' rating on the stock. Despite recent pessimism, analysts argue that the market is undervaluing Airbnb’s potential, highlighting that revenue growth could surpass 10% with stable margins. However, after an initial jump, the stock settled at $122.08, up 3.9%, suggesting the market views the news as positive but not transformative. Technical Outlook From a technical standpoint, Airbnb’s stock has experienced considerable volatility over the past year, with nine moves greater than 5%. The stock recently broke out of its downward trajectory and is now in a rising trend, supported by a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 55. This reading indicates a balanced position—neither overbought nor oversold—pointing to more potential for upward momentum. Adding to this bullish technical setup is the broader performance of the NASDAQ Composite Index, of which Airbnb is a part, currently up 19% year-to-date. This signals a strong market environment for tech and growth stocks, giving additional tailwinds to Airbnb's potential rise. Market sentiment is also keyed on Jerome Powell’s upcoming announcement regarding a potential interest rate cut. A favorable decision could further fuel Airbnb's momentum, making the stock more attractive to investors seeking to capitalize on lower borrowing costs. Fundamental Drivers While the technical outlook is promising, Airbnb’s fundamentals offer a more mixed picture. The stock is down 9.2% year-to-date, trading 27.4% below its 52-week high of $168.18. Investors who bought Airbnb shares during its IPO in December 2020 would now be looking at a 15% loss. Despite these challenges, Airbnb remains one of the most profitable tech companies globally, boasting impressive free cash flow generation and a vast network of over 8 million hosts. However, its recent earnings call raised some red flags. The company reported a 16.6% drop in stock price after missing Wall Street’s bookings and revenue guidance expectations. Additionally, Airbnb has signaled slower revenue growth for the second half of 2024, with a slight 1% downward revision in growth projections and a softened EBIT margin outlook due to stagnant development in its take rate. That said, CEO Brian Chesky has outlined key strategies to unlock what he calls "optionality value." This includes making hosting easier, expanding the "experiences" segment, and increasing event-based short-term rentals, like during the Paris Olympics, where Airbnb offered 150,000 homes. These initiatives could provide new avenues for growth and help the company diversify its revenue streams. Valuation and Future Prospects Airbnb’s current valuation sits at a fair value estimate of $120 per share, suggesting it’s slightly undervalued. However, its growth trajectory will heavily depend on its ability to successfully expand beyond its core offerings in home-sharing and capture new revenue streams, such as event hosting and cultural experiences. The stock's potential for further growth is reinforced by its strong global presence and its position as a disruptor in the travel industry. As consumer trends shift, especially among younger generations, the "sharing economy" model that Airbnb spearheaded will likely continue to gain traction. In particular, regions like Southeast Asia and Latin America show promising user growth for accommodation-sharing platforms. Conclusion While Airbnb’s stock has been volatile, With solid cash flow, a robust global network of hosts, and initiatives aimed at unlocking additional value, Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB) is positioned to benefit from both macroeconomic trends and internal strategies. Investors should closely monitor key developments, including potential interest rate changes and the success of Airbnb’s diversification efforts, to gauge the stock’s future trajectory.
NASDAQ:ABNBLong
by DEXWireNews
2
Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB) Shares Plummet 14% on Earnings Miss Airbnb (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ABNB ) shares experienced a significant drop of 14% in after-hours trading following the company's second-quarter earnings report, which failed to meet analysts' expectations. Additionally, the company cautioned about potential slowing demand from U.S. customers, raising concerns among investors about its future growth prospects.** Earnings Miss and Revenue Growth For the quarter ended June 30, Airbnb reported: - Earnings per share (EPS): 86 cents (compared to 92 cents expected by analysts) - Revenue: $2.75 billion (slightly above the $2.74 billion expected) While revenue increased by 11% year-over-year, Airbnb's net income dropped to $555 million, or 86 cents per share, down 15% from $650 million, or 98 cents per share, in the same quarter last year. Signs of Slowing Demand Airbnb's management highlighted several areas of concern: - The company anticipated a moderation in year-over-year growth in its key “Nights and Experiences” category. - There were shorter booking lead times globally. - There were signs of slowing demand from U.S. guests, a critical market for Airbnb. Despite these warnings, the company reported that users booked 125.1 million Nights and Experiences, marking its highest second-quarter result to date. Regional Performance and Quality Initiatives Airbnb noted continued growth across all regions compared to Q2 2023, with Asia Pacific and Latin America leading the way. This regional growth, however, was overshadowed by the warning signs in the U.S. market. To improve the quality of listings on its platform, Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB) has removed more than 200,000 low-quality listings since launching its “quality system” over a year ago. This initiative aims to enhance the user experience by ensuring higher standards for the properties listed. Investor Concerns and Market Reactions Investors are closely monitoring consumer behavior, especially given the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate adjustments. The broader economic context has shown mixed signals, with companies like McDonald's reporting that consumers are feeling economic pressures, as indicated by a recent drop in same-store sales. Airbnb’s forecast for third-quarter revenue ranges between $3.67 billion and $3.73 billion. However, the cautionary notes regarding future growth and demand have amplified investor concerns, contributing to the sharp decline in share value. Technical Outlook Shares of Airbnb (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ABNB ) stock have experienced a 16% decline in after-hours trading, suggesting an impending gap down in Wednesday's trading session. The daily price chart reveals a consistent rising wedge pattern, swiftly succeeded by a falling wedge pattern, indicative of ongoing buyer-seller conflicts and offering insights into the stock's forthcoming significant milestone. Adding to the bearish sentiment surrounding NASDAQ:ABNB , the stock exhibits an after-hours Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 22, signaling unfavorable conditions for the stock's performance at the commencement of tomorrow's trading session. Conclusion Airbnb's second-quarter earnings report has stirred significant apprehension among investors, primarily due to its warnings of slowing demand in the U.S. market and the missed earnings expectations. While the company continues to see strong performance in regions like Asia Pacific and Latin America, the potential headwinds in its key market could pose challenges moving forward. As Airbnb navigates these complexities, the market will be keenly observing its strategic responses and any further signals of consumer sentiment.
NASDAQ:ABNBShort
by DEXWireNews
ABNB Potential Bearish Continuation SetupAfter the first "confirmed " reversal signal of Extreme Reversal Sniper on the H4 Chart Time Frame; we look for bearish breakout confirmation as decribed on the chart. Holding Period : 5- 7 days Major Trend : Bullish Chart Time Frame: H4 Trade Type: Correction Price Target: Targets are the trendlines on the chart. Status : Not confirmed yet. Important Note: Reversal/Correction is not confirmed. You need to wait for the confirmation signal.
NASDAQ:ABNBShort
by chartreader_pro
Airbnb Shares Tumbles 8% After Weak ForecastsAirbnb shares ( NASDAQ:ABNB ) fell more than 8% in extended trading on Wednesday after the company issued a weaker-than-expected current-quarter outlook, overshadowing its strong Q1 results that topped Wall Street expectations. The company said its current-quarter results face "a significant sequential headwind" from the timing of Easter, an added leap-year day in the prior quarter, and the impact of foreign exchange fluctuations. However, the rentals platform sees accelerating sequential revenue growth between the second and third quarters, driven by a summer travel backlog spearheaded by the Paris Olympics in July and August. For the three months ending March 31, the company posted adjusted earnings of 41 cents per share, well above the 24-cents-a-share figure modeled by analysts. Revenue in the period of $2.14 billion grew 18% from the last year's first quarter and topped the $2.06 billion consensus view. Gross bookings registered $22.9 billion, up 12% year-over-year (YOY), while nights and experiences booked on the platform improved 9.5% from a year earlier to 132.6 million, edging past expectations of 132.1 million. Airbnb ( NASDAQ:ABNB ) noted that one-off events, such as the solar eclipse in North America, helped drive user engagement to the platform in the quarter, adding that 500,000 guests booked stays during the eclipse. Since topping out in late March, the Airbnb ( NASDAQ:ABNB ) share price has consolidated within a narrow range around the 50-day moving average, indicating a lack of conviction from both buyers and sellers. Airbnb ( NASDAQ:ABNB ) shares fell 8.4% to $144.58 in after-hours trading. Through the close of trading Wednesday, the stock had gained about 25% over the past 12 months. The Easter holiday occurring in the first quarter rather than the second and currency-exchange impacts were partly to blame for Airbnb ( NASDAQ:ABNB ) projecting current-quarter revenue below lofty Wall Street estimates. Technical Outlook Airbnb ( NASDAQ:ABNB ) shares is down 6.34% on Thursday's early Market Trading with a weak Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 34.38 indicating a slight oversold condition for the stock.
NASDAQ:ABNB
by DEXWireNews
Airbnb stock is now in the second bandAirbnb stock is now in the second band This figure shows the weekly candle chart of Airbnb stock. The graph overlays the recent low points against the golden section. As shown in the figure, Airbnb stock is now in the second band after bottoming out, and it is likely to retreat below the 1.382 position of the golden section in the figure before starting up again! The bullish target for the next wave of Airbnb stocks is around 2.382 on the golden section in the picture!
NASDAQ:ABNB
by Think_More
Airbnb (ABNB) | Breakout, Confirmed With July Close!Hi, Again, buy the strength, and this time - Airbnb (ABNB) Started in 2008, Airbnb is the world's largest online alternative accommodation travel agency, also offering booking services for boutique hotels and experiences. Airbnb's platform offered 6.7 million active accommodation listings as of March 31, 2023. Listings from the company's over 4 million hosts are spread over almost every country in the world. In the fourth quarter of 2022, 47% of revenue was from the North American region. Airbnb has managed to push above strong areas which is confirmed by July close. A monthly close is the best confirmation on that occasion and currently, the price of ABNB has already started to retest the breakout area. Basically, $125 to $145 was the area that played an important role in the previous price action - it has worked as a support level, and after the break below it has acted as a resistance level. In the short history of date, we can say that this area is the key zone for Airbnb and the price is finally above it which allows calling that technically it would be a good place to buy. The monthly close was also above the mid-round number of $150 which is a minor win but we will take it and definitely adds a bit of strength to the retest area. * Considering technical analysis then the optimal buying zone should stay between $125 to $142 * Target updates going to the chat room! Good luck!
NASDAQ:ABNBLong
by VaidoVeek
2
Airbnb: Holiday home with pool 👙🩳Could you do with a holiday? For Airbnb, there is a nice turquoise pool waiting below the support at $107.10, stretching between $105.87 and $89.00. Thus, the share should hop below $107.10 and dive into the bracing water to complete wave 2 in turquoise. Once refreshed, Airbnb should turn upwards and rise from the pool to continue the overarching ascent. However, there is a 30% chance that Airbnb might have already finished wave alt.2 in turquoise, which would be confirmed by a direct upwards movement above the resistance at $144.63.
NASDAQ:ABNB
by MarketIntel
Airbnb (ABNB): Lowered Guidance Overshadowed A Good QuarterTrend Bearish The first thing to make clear here is that companies are not required to say what they expect from the next quarter or year. Many do in order to offer some kind of transparency, but they are not obligated to do so, legally, or otherwise. That became clear during the pandemic when, faced with massive uncertainty about supply chains and consumer behavior, many firms that had previously offered guidance stopped doing so. Their Q1 results have been completely overshadowed, but they show a company that has achieved profitability and, more importantly, has shown that they can maintain that even in a tough quarter. Over the next few months, that will drive the stock, and not the realistic expectations for a downturn as higher interest rates slow the economy.
CAPITALCOM:ABNBShort
by DaveBrascoFX
1
ABNB Update: Short Term Trade OpportunityYahoo Finance: Even though a company’s earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It’s almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company’s potential revenue growth is crucial. In the case of Airbnb, Inc. the consensus sales estimate of $1.79 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +18.7%. The $9.66 billion and $11.14 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +15% and +15.2%, respectively. Last Reported Results and Surprise History Airbnb, Inc. reported revenues of $1.9 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +24.1%. EPS of $0.48 for the same period compares with $0.08 a year ago. Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.87 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +1.7%. The EPS surprise was +77.78%. The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates three times over this period. Technical Overview: H4 Chart Timeframe: Advanced Chart Pattern Tracker: Bullish Triangle Pattern and Cont. I SHS Pattern Cycle Sniper Indicator: D1 Headed North. Price Closed above P100 Beta Bands. The technical target will be P200 Beta Bands. Shorter term: Closing above 120$ will confirm the next target at 126$. Longer term: If it holds above 100 $, targets will be 131.25$ 137.50$ and 143$ .
NASDAQ:ABNBLong
by chartreader_pro