MSFT is having a healthy retracementLet’s start with feeding the bears. Microsoft stock might retrace further. On Friday it was slowing down near a support cluster near the 92.00 level, and closed the session below the monthly PP, standing exactly at the support line of the junior channel up pattern (black lines). That support lies there alone and passing that would feed the bears.
Meanwhile, the healthiness of the market “drop” “nosedive” “plummeting” (as CNBC and other “experts” (click baiters) call it) can be observed while doing the charting with the most basic tools – channels.
Let’s begin by going in from the larger timeframes (I have the chart set on hourly, zoom out). The expectations of big earnings from MSFT caused the pair to break the previously most dominant ascending channel pattern (yellow lines below the stock price). The whole event occurred in the borders of a new dominant channel (blue lines).
So….Further one needs to zoom in to see that the last quarter saw the stock surge, which followed the MSFT earning beat in late October (cool jump btw, much money wow so wow!). The consolidation, which followed the earnings eventually revealed the medium scale ascending pattern (purple lines), which is guiding the pair to the upper trend line of the dominant trend.
In that pattern we have another one (seriously this is the last one).
The black lines represent the junior pattern, which is a result of the whole sentiment that surrounded the Trump’s tax reform starting from December until what we had last week. (Ok, I am getting bored of writing at this point).
The stock price will face the support of the junior pattern first thing on Monday. If it finds support in it and moves past the monthly PP, the levels above the 100 will be the next target (btw, the word on twitter is that some group of analysts, handling loads of cash are being long until those levels, as they changed their price target and announced it,but there are buts to such news...).
If the price drops below the black support, watch for a rebound. The rebound might begin at any level as low as 88.40 ( when the bears have been fed). However, I presume that the purple support would provide the eventual push upwards. In that case scenario the same targets of above 100 levels would be aimed at.
P.S. Remember that large fundamental changes mostly break patterns, so use proper risk management and don’t go long all in like a total “expert.” If Trump does one of his stunts against the markets, we might have just that. (Yes I am refering to that memo and the whole FBI investigation thing.)
Yours sincerely,
Y
