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AUDCAD - 240M - BEAR CYPHER - BEAR BAT Hi All, I wanted to share another early prediction, here we have 2 advanced patterns depending on which you prefer to take we have multiple opportunities for a shorting position. Cypher Blue - Bat Orange I have noted the risk reward for both patterns. If we break past the B Legs and continue upwards you will notice in previous structure that we have a shelf of Support - If we break through then we may see price continue upwards. We are hoping here that previous support becomes resistance and our pattern plays out. If price continues upwards Cypher D Completion also presents AB=CD completion. T1 and T2 - I have just used a base 38.2% and 61.8% Retrace from C-D legs - you may want to look at structure as well to base your targets around the retrace and structure. Check your filters and happy trading.
Short
by Oztrade
BULL CYPHER - BEAR BAT - GBPAUD - 240M - Potential Opportunity Hi All, I wanted to share this potential setup, we are looking at a neutral position entries in both ways. Orange Bat Pattern - Entries have been brought just below 88.6% to ensure we get filled. Blue Cypher Pattern - Entries have been placed at 78.6% - as we know the win ratio for the Cypher pattern is very good and we rarely see an exact 1:1 risk reward for Target 1 - here is a slight inverse Risk Reward - maybe your rules tell you that it needs to be 1:1 minimum - if price gets to this level then simply look for another reason for entry. Price may test the lows giving you increased reward less risk. I have also put the lines for T1 and T2 for both patterns - again Blue and Orange. If D leg pushes closer to the X leg we simply move our Targets along with Price until it stops and hopefully comes back to hit our targets. This would be as follows Bat Pattern - A-D leg - Retrace 38.2% T1 - 61.8% T2 Cypher Pattern - C-D Leg - Retrace - 38.2% T1 - 61.8% T2 When T1 is obtained we move our stops to break even. I also posted this the yesterday with some harmonic moves pushing upwards and almost hit each level that I filled in the chart. Now it presents us with the Cypher so I wanted to post this again for us to keep an eye on. As we know price can do 3 things - go up down or sideways. Where price is now - we almost had a 222 Gartley D Completion but the C Leg of the Cypher did not meet the 618 222 Gartley Criteria. Any comments don't hesitate to advise. Happy Trading
by Oztrade
2
GBPJPY - BEARISH CYPHER - BEARISH BAT PATTERN - 240M Hi All, I wanted to share this with you, we have setting up here a potential Cypher and Bat Pattern. I wouldnt normally post a pattern that hasn't completed its C leg But in noticing this Cypher I thought to also keep an eye open for this BAT. All Cypher Details in Blue, Bat details in Pink. Blue Line Entry for Cypher which is 78.6% Retrace from X to C Leg if price moves towards X leg we simply move our T1 and T2 - 38.3% and 61.8% along with the D until it completes. Stops I have set to just above a 113% Fib Ext - you may use your own ROE for any trade though. Entries are just below the standard 78.6% and 88.6% so we make sure to get filled on the order Targets are just above the 38.2% and 61.8% Retrace from C to D Leg - So we ensure to get targets hit. We can see here that it is now testing previous structure level and will wait to see if it bounces of or will break through to the high side. Entry for the Cypher is close to 186.00 even handle number May be worth keeping an eye on in the next few days. Happy Trading
Short
by Oztrade
1
BEAR BAT BEAR CYPHER - EURAUD - 240M - D/T - 2618 Trade Hi All, we have a double top with RSI Divergence chance to get short - we could also see price continue upwards on this pair towards the Mad Monday Spike giving us an opportunity for a shorting position at AB=CD completion which puts us right inline with Previous Structure - however I have a feeling this might break that level exposing us to the next high which is the spike. If I was looking to enter a trade like this I would be more conservative and look for entry at the top side of the red box - which is almost exactly the 88.6% FIB. Happy Trading I will be watching to see how this plays out when we get to either levels.
by Oztrade
EURUSD: Bearish Gartley In A Bearish Market (w/Video Link)Short & simple today (no pun intended). We have a potential bearish Gartley pattern setting up on a market that has been in a strong bearish trend. Perfect chance for those of you who aren’t trend continuation traders, to hop on a TCT type of move using advanced patterns. With Jason Stapleton out of town today, I’ll be running this morning War Room meeting, running through what trades are on my radar for the day. Here’s the link where you can watch it live. www.youtube.com See you there! Akil Stokes Chief Currency Analysis at Trade Empowered Click here for 20+ hours of FREE Training tradeempowered.com Click the link below to subscribe for more FOREX TRADING videos www.youtube.com Facebook: www.facebook.com Twitter: twitter.com
Short
by Akil_Stokes
40
Thoughts about BAT pattern. Some tips and secrets. Part XIV.Hello, everyone. Welcome back to another edition of "thoughts about bat pattern". Today we'll continue discussing bat pattern types. We'll look at SNSI and SFSI types. They are very similar to HSNSI and HSFSI I talked in my last edition: As you see the difference is only in XA leg. With that being said let's skip to some statistics. As usual I will first remind you the avarage success rate of bats for eurusd , gbpusd and audusd. By success rate I mean the probability of price action to hit 0,382AD BEFORE 1,113XA. It is critical! So, average success rate for bats: On eurusd it is 53,52%, gbpusd – 52,39%, audusd – 51,53%. We have these results if we trade ALL the bats we can find. I’ve been testing SNSI and SFSI on M5 TF on 4-year period data and got the following features (I will only talk about eurusd , gbpusd and audusd as examples): Frequency: SNSI: On eurusd I found 30, on gbpusd – 28 and on audusd – 28. Not very frequent type. SFSI: On eurusd I found 9, on gbpusd – 12 and on audusd – 9. A rare type. Success rate: SNSI: On eurusd it is 40%, on gbpusd – 57,14%, on audusd – 35,71%. SFSI: On eurusd it is 77,77%, on gbpusd – 33,33%, on audusd – 44,44% As you see trading SNSI type only on gbpusd and trading SFSI only on eurusd is a way to improve your trading results. Aussie is not friendly to either of these types)) Ok, mates. That is all for today. Next time I will explain HSNDP and HSFDP. If you find the information interesting – click “thumb-up”. If you don’t want to miss the next edition – subscribe. Hope to see you again.
Education
by Alexander_Nikitin
1
Back into the trend with HSNSI BAT patternBlue arrows = impulses, voilation or retest of previous move's range. Red arrow = corrections, priceaction within previous move's range. Trend = at least two impulses of same direction with a correction between them. Consolidation = at least two impulses of same direction with an impulse of opposite direction between them. Price moves in trends. A trend remains active untill it shows the sign of reversal. Sign of reversal = violation of the initial point of the last trend's impulse.
Long
by Alexander_Nikitin
4
Thoughts about BAT pattern. Some tips and secrets. Part XIII.Hey, traders. Welcome back to another edition of "thoughts about BAT pattern". Today we'll continue to discuss bat pattern types. We already know about Four types: HSNSP see it here: SNSP see it here: HSFSP see it here: SFSP see it here: These four have two common features. Their CD leg is not interrupted by a retracement more than 0,382AB and their A and B points don't form a double top/bottom. Today we'll take too more types: HSNSI and SFNSI. All the features and notes are drawn on the chart. Here I will only give some statistics. As usual I will first remind the avarage success rate of bats for eurusd, gbpusd and audusd. By success rate I mean the probability of price action to hit 0,382AD BEFORE 1,113XA. It is critical! So, average success rate for bats: On eurusd it is 53,52%, gbpusd – 52,39%, audusd – 51,53%. We have these results if we trade ALL the bats we can find. I’ve been testing HSNSI and HSFSI on M5 TF on 4-year period data and got the following features (I will only talk about eurusd , gbpusd and audusd as examples): Frequency: HSNSI: On eurusd I found 47, on gbpusd – 60 and on audusd – 67. One of the most frequent types) HSFSI: On eurusd I found 42, on gbpusd – 25 and on audusd – 38. Less frequent type. Success rate: HSNSI: On eurusd it is 48,93%, on gbpusd – 55%, on audusd – 47,76%. HSFSI: On eurusd it is 47,61%, on gbpusd – 60%, on audusd – 36,84% As you see this pattern has more than average success rate on gbpusd and less than average success rate on eurusd and on audusd . Trading this type on gbpusd and not trading it on eurusd and on audusd is a way to improve trading. Ok, mates. That is all for today. Next time I will explain SNSI and SFSI. If you find the information interesting – click “thumb-up”. If you don’t want to miss the next edition – subscribe. Hope to see you again.
Education
by Alexander_Nikitin
GBPJPY:Gartley, Bat or Butterfly w/ video on Rising WedgesAs you can see, lots of potential action here on the GBPJPY following our Rising Wedge from earlier in the week. Yesterday I recorded a video talking about this rising wedge as well as a MUST own trading book, so make sure you head over to my Youtube page and check if you if you haven’t already “A Trading Book Must Own & Trading Simple Patterns” www.youtube.com Today I have a handful of advanced patterns on the radar including a bear gartley, bull bat, and a bull butterfly. I’m not too big on butterfly patterns so I’ll be ignoring that one but it’s there. Aside from that, I just got short the AUDCAD from last night’s Syndicate video which is now featuring another rising wedge pattern inside of our ab=cd/2618 trade and I’ve got my eyes glued to EURUSD, GBPUSD & NZDUSD from some trading opportunities. Yesterday was a no trade day for me, but hopefully I’ll get some valid signals today and end the week with a bang! Akil Stokes Chief Currency Analysis at Trade Empowered Click Here for 20+ hours of FREE Training tradeempowered.com Click the link below to subscribe for more FOREX TRADING videos www.youtube.com Facebook: www.facebook.com Twitter: twitter.com
by Akil_Stokes
19
Thoughts about bat pattern. Some tips and secrets. Part XII.Hey, traders. I’m back and we have another edition of “Thoughts about Bat pattern”. Today we’ll continue discussing bat pattern types. I’ll talk about HSFSP and SFSP types. First, I will remind you average success rate of bat pattern. One has this rate if he trades EVERY bat he can find. As usual, three pairs for illustration: On eurusd it is 53,52%, gbpusd – 52,39%, audusd – 51,53%. Now, the types’ features 1) HSFSP: Let’s decode the name. “HS” – XA is interrupted by a deep (at least 0,382AB) retracement. “F” – BC is not straight. “S” – A and C don’t form double top/bottom. “P” – CD is not interrupted by a deep (at least 0,382AB) retracement. I’ve been testing HSFSP on M5 TF on 4-year period data and got the following features (I will only talk about eurusd, gbpusd and audusd as examples): Frequency: On eurusd I found 22, on gbpusd – 16 and on audusd – 22. Not very frequent type) Success rate of HSFSP type: On eurusd it is 45,45%, on gbpusd – 37,5%, on audusd – 59,09%. As you see this pattern has more than average success rate on audusd and less than average success rate on eurusd and on gbpusd. Trading this type on audusd and not trading it on eurusd and on gbpusd is a way to improve trading. 2) SFSP: Let’s decode the name. “S” – XA is not interrupted by a deep (at least 0,382AB) retracement. “F” – BC is not straight. “S” – A and C don’t form double top/bottom. “P” – CD is not interrupted by a deep (at least 0,382AB) retracement. I’ve been testing SFSP on M5 TF on 4-year period data and got the following features (I will only talk about eurusd, gbpusd and audusd as examples): Frequency: On eurusd I found 15, on gbpusd – 17 and on audusd – 8. Not very frequent type, either Success rate of SFSP type: On eurusd it is 60,00%, on gbpusd – 47,05%, on audusd – 35,50%. As you see this pattern has more than average success rate on eurusd and less than average success rate on audusd and on gbpusd. Trading this type on eurusd and not trading it on audusd and on gbpusd is a way to improve trading. Ok, mates. That is all for today. Next time I will explain HSNSI. If you find the information interesting – click “thumb-up”. If you don’t want to miss the next edition – subscribe. Hope to see you again.
Education
by Alexander_Nikitin
10
Thoughts about bat pattern. Some tips and secrets. Part XI.Welcome back, traders. It’s Wednesday and we have another edition of “Thoughts about Bat pattern”. Today we’ll continue discussing bat pattern types. Today we’ll talk about SNSP type. SNSP bat type is the most perfectly looking bat type. Let’s decode the name. “S” – XA is not interrupted by a deep (at least 0,382AB) retracement. “N” – BC is straight. “S” – A and C don’t form double top/bottom. “P” – CD is not interrupted by a deep (at least 0,382AB) retracement. I will remind you average success rate of bat pattern. As usual, three pair for illustration: On eurusd it is 53,52%, gbpusd – 52,39%, audusd – 51,53%. These results we’ll have if we trade EVERY bat pattern we can find. I’ve been testing SNSP on M5 TF on 4-year period data and got the following features (I will only talk about eurusd, gbpusd and audusd as examples): Frequency: On eurusd I found 22, on gbpusd – 25 and on audusd – 28. Not very frequent type) Success rate of SNSP type: On eurusd it is 72,72%, on gbpusd – 52,00%, on audusd – 64,28%. As you see this pattern has more than average success rate on eurusd and audusd and less than average success rate on gbpusd. Trading this type one eurusd and audusd and not trading it on gbpusd is a way to improve trading. (To tell the truth, gbpusd in not very much friendly to bats)) Ok, mates. That is all for today. Next time I will explain HSNSI. If you find the information interesting – click “thumb-up”. If you don’t want to miss the next edition – subscribe. Hope to see you again. To know more about the way of differentiating bat types, visit Part X (link is attached as related idea)
Education
by Alexander_Nikitin
Thoughts about bat pattern. Some tips and secrets. Part X.Welcome back, traders. It’s Wednesday and we have another edition of “Thoughts about Bat pattern”. Today we’ll continue discussing bat pattern types. Or… If we treat bats a vivid creatures I’d better say species)). In my last edition I told you mostly how I discovered types but not about the types themselves. I got lots of feedback and messages asking me to explain the rules of distinguishing the types. So, I decided to start from the very beginning. For the sake of simplicity I will only explain one type per edition. Let’s get it started then. But first, remember the critiria of distinguishing: 1. Is the pattern bullish or bearish? 2. Is XA straight or not straight? (“S” or “HS”) 3. Is BC straight or consolidating? (“N” or “F”) 4. Does A and C correlation form a double top/bottom or single top/botto? (“D” or “S”) 5. Is CD straight or not straight? (“I” or “P”) Now I should explain what I mean saying “straight”. When I say “straight” I mean the move is not in terrupted by a specific size retracement. This size equals min BC requirement or 0,382AB. I usually use square tool to establish the needed range. Then I just drag the square to the place I neeed to check. Or I clone it. Sometimes I just measure the amount of pips in 0,382AB and then measure the retracements within bat’s legs. Square tool is the most convinient). See picture 1. If we have XA leg containing this size retracement then XA is marked “HS”. If we don’t have retracement of this size then XA is marked “S”. The same rule is for CD leg. If CD is interrupted by 0,382AB size retracement it is marked “I”. If not, then it’s marked “P”. What is straight or not straight BC? It’s just a comparison with AB. Does BC look more consolidataing than AB or vice versa. Counting bar may help here. If AB has 2 bars while BC has 5 – we almost always have an “F” type BC. “F” type BC form cnannels, triangles, wedges while AB serves as a Flag staff. If AB is consolidation also – then we won’t have “F” type BC but “N” type. Remember, we are to compare the two legs. They either move with equal speed (sometimes BC moves faster) or BC moves slower. First scenario is for “N” type, second is for “F”. You are to train your eyes to see the proportions. Note that BC cannot be one-bar move (it invalidates the whole pattern). I use Jason Stapleton’s rules for distinguishing double top/bottom when compare A and C placement. Ok, suppose you have a bat pattern. To find out what type it is you are to answer the list of 5 questions I enumerated above. Now you can distinguish type by yourself. Let’s discuss the types in details. Last time I started discussing HSNSP and SNSP. I briefly described their features. Having lots of requests from my subscribers asking me to explain each type in more details I decided to explain these types once again. From now on I will explain one type per edition.... SEE continuation in comments... Tradingview doesn't allow too long descriptions))
Education
by Alexander_Nikitin
3
Thoughts about bat pattern. Some tips and secrets. Part IX.Welcome back, traders. It’s Wednesday and we have another edition of “Thoughts about Bat pattern”. Today we’ll discuss batpattern types. Or… If we treat bats a vivid creatures I’d better say species)). But first we should talk about backtesting. I do backtesting in three passes. The first pass is called eye-test. It’s quick. You need to draw your pattern and see if it works or not. The second pass is optimization pass. You change something in the pattern and see how changes affect the profitability. This pass may have multiple cycles. For example, I want to know how bats profitability changes if B doesn’t touch 0.50XA. I need to test the history period and find bats with this criterea. It’s cycle number 1. Then, I want to know how bats profitability changes if C-point goes beyond 0,886AB. Again, I test the same history period finding bats with this criterea. It’s cycle number 2. And so on. Whatever idea about the pattern you have you test in this second pass. Alternative entries, alternative exits- all rule of engagement are tested here. And finally, when I have all the ROE tested I do the last, trading pass. It’s done as if I was really in that moment trading this bat)). I draw equity curve, write down the time of trades, count average win and average loss, profit factor, expected payoff and so on. In this pass you mostly test your money menagement strategy. If you want to optimize your strategy, again you will need several cycles). After backtesting is done print euity curve drawing, print it and place it right in fron of your eyes. This curve is your ideal result. You are to compare your account equity curve with your backtesting equity curve to find similarities and differences. If the curves are different – it means you do execution errors, you are trading NOT the same way you have been trading in the third pass. My realtime trading equity curve was not the same as my backtesting equity curve. I mast have been doing some execution errors. You can read more about trading errors here: After correcting my trading style the problem didn’t dissappear. Equity curve looked bettern but not as well as backtesting curve. Then I began to scrutinize my backtesting trades. What was so special in my backtesting trading that I cannot repeat in real life? And I found it. It was frequency of trades. In backtesting I had 1-2 per day. In real trading 3-6. I began to study my backtesting more carefully and found lots of bat patterns that I didn’t noticed when I was doing backtestings. After checking these bats I found most of them to be loosers. Why the heck I didn’t notice them? The answer is in the mindset I had when back testing. I just looked at the chart and picked up bats that did catch my eye. I was relaxed and had fun. Whereas in realtime trading I usually FORCED myself to find bats (especially after a series of losses: “I NEED some bats to enter the market. If I don’t enter the market I won’t get my money back”). When you force yourself to SEE a pattern, stalking every tick, strained you will trade EVERY pattern coinsiding with your ROE. But when you are relaxed, feel fun and joy, your mind blocks your perception from seeing those patterns which are typicly loosers. It’s quite simple. Every looser causes emotional pain. Subconsciously you know what type of pattern causes more pain. Your mind is simply tries to aviod pain distracting your attention or somehow else. This type of pattern just don’t catch your eye. If you don’t see anything in the chart at first glance then skip it. Do not try to force youself to see something. Continuation is in comments...
by Alexander_Nikitin
6
Thoughts about bat pattern. Some tips and secrets. Part VIII.Welcome back, traders. It’s Wednesday and we have another edition of “Thoughts about Bat pattern”. Today we’ll discuss some specific way of trading BATS. I call it BBS. What does this abbreviation mean? It stands for Back to Back Setup. I was first discovered by me when I was backtesting Gartleys. I have noticed one interesting thing. Sometimes gartleys appear very close to each other. One gartley’s AD may serve as another gartley’s XA. After that second gartley 8 times of 10 I osbserved a huge movement going much further than my secondary targets. I called it DGS – double gartley setup. But then I found the same formation while testing cyphers and bats. I also found that different patterns may be combined. The first is gartley and the second is bat or cypher and vice versa. So I changed the name of the setup and called it BBS. Studying this phenomenon I came to a conclusion that these formations take place in consolidation periods. The consolidation being bordered by trendlines shows channels, flags, triangles and wedges. So these huge movements were classic channels, flags, triangles or wedges breakouts. On the chart above presented one of these setups. I minimized it so you can see the flag itself. May be you’ll have some problems differentiating bats. In this case just maximize the chart pressing ‘+’ button. As you can see price went lower than the second Bat’s X to retest the lower border of a flag and then went skyrocket. Make sure that your stops are not just below X but also below the border of a flag, triangle or wedge formation. In these formations borders serve like magnets. So, if your stop is not beyond the border there’s a high probability that it’ll be triggered. On this particular chart 1,113XA, my regular Bat stop placement, was touched. Luckily, I already knew about this setup and placed stops beyond the lower border. To maximize my profits I adjust my targets from C-point retest to A-point retest keeping in mind that A-point is an opposite side of a channel. Although a flag breakout in the direction of the overall trend has a high probability of success, I prefer to take profits at the border. Classic flag strategies presuppose taking profit measuring the flag’s staff. It’s done the same way as AB=CD pattern traders look for D point. So you can maximize you profits even further. Trying to catch such big moves you are to protect what you have already earned. So, trailing stops to structure won’t be a bad idea. Test it to find the best way of maximizing profits. Well, I think it’s all for today. Press like and subscribe if you want me to keep on posting this stuff. If you are new to these series you are welcome to check previous editions: Hope to see you next Wednesday. P.S. Pattern traders, look close to this BBS:
by Alexander_Nikitin
9
AUD/CHF - Daily - Bat PatternAUD/CHF - Daily Chart - Bat Pattern Here on the daily chart of AUD/CHF we have nice Bat Pattern setup. With a D leg completion of the Bat Pattern just above historically the lowest price, this structure support should hold and act as a solid reversal zone. Taking a Fibonacci of the C to D leg gives us a .382 Target 1 at structure resistance, which is a perfect area to take of half of our position and move stops to break even. On the RSI 1h / 4h and Daily time frames, we have bullish divergence giving us more confluence to look long. - Stop Loss below X - Target 1 at .382 Retracement ( Once Target 1 is achieved, half of position taken and SL moved to break even ) - Target 2 at .618 Retracement Good luck.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn180388
10
EUR/USD - BAT PATTERNEUR/USD - 4H Chart - Bat Pattern Here on the 4h chart of EUR/USD we have nice Bat Pattern setup. We have to be cognizant of the Greece situation, however it shouldn't effect our trading plan. Due to expected volatility a sell limit order will be set closer to the D leg completion. We must see a completion at D leg ( 1.123 ) before any short entry is triggered. - SL must go above X - Target 1 at 38.2% retracement - Target 2 at 61.8% retracement Good luck.
by UnknownUnicorn180388
29
EUR/USD - Daily Gartley PatternEUR/USD - Daily Chart - Gartley Pattern Here on the daily chart of EUR/USD we have deep Gartley Pattern setup. We have to be cognizant of the Greece situation, however it shouldn't effect our trading plan. Due to expected volatility a buy limit order will be set closer to the D leg completion. We must see a completion at D leg ( 1.064 ) before any long entry is triggered. - SL must go below X - Target 1 at 38.2% retracement - Target 2 at 61.8% retracement Good luck.
by UnknownUnicorn180388
11