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GBP/USD Short (MACD, ADX signal)The GBP/USD has been fairly bullish recently. With the USD weak last week it gave the neutral GBP some power (as shown) With the USD going back neutral the pair should drop. This is shown both by the ANN strategy and MACD. The ADX is also low indicating a big movement. The resisitance line would be a good time to enter the trade and T1 shows some more resistance. Take out 1/3 of your contracts then so you can afford to lose some if it bounces back up. If T1 is broken there is not much resistance and it should drop quite a bit. Also look for the EMA's to cross. If they do it is more signal to short
Short
by Eliphaz
1
GILD: The Little Engine that CouldDespite my overall bearish outlook on stocks, Gilead Sciences stands out as the 'Little Engine that Could' in the sense that it keeps chugging along despite being battered by the broader index just after earnings came out late January. On the fundamental side, most analysts think it's way underweight citing that it should be worth as much as 66% more as per the attached article. In my personal opinion, the fact that it is largely uncorrelated with the S&P index (overlaid in red) is actually a good thing. Stocks in general are in a frenzy over more free money from a global quantitative easing, bolstered further by the dovishness of the FOMC meeting consensus released yesterday. Technically, it appears to be consolidating once more in somewhat of a flag pattern, which is even easier to see when Heikin Ashi charts are applied. Further, it is consolidating at a major fibonacci level (anchored from the high of 2016-01-25 to the strong level of support from the low of 2016-02-19). Yesterday proved very bullish leading us to expect some pullback, but the high of today was still greater than that of Tuesday, another bullish sign. Note the proximity to the Ichimoku cloud, which may indicate further pressure building at that level. The other technicals such as the MACD, ADX and RSI suggest that we are ranging, though fortunately the Aroon indicator advocates that we are in a longer term uptrend. Trading idea : Wait for a big bull bar to confirm the breakout from the flag pattern. Set your profit targets using the fibonacci levels above, with a protective stop at the base of the (hypothetical at this point) bull candle. Keep in mind that this may be something you want to hold on to long term.
NASDAQ:GILDLong
by quantguy
1
All Eyes on FOMC for Equities PositionsData from the U.S. has improved by the barest of margins. The New York Fed Consumer Survey finds inflation expectations rising (by less than 1%) above expectations, and the ECB rate cut means lots of free cash to play with. Keep in mind we have the FOMC meeting coming up and their decisions will determine the direction of the markets for the near term. Expectations for the federal funds rate remain pretty consistent and the consensus is no change. Personally, I expect them to pay more lip service to foreign issues and reiterate data dependency. But the tone of their message could have a huge impact on the direction of the markets, in particular with the S&P. Moreover recession fears are still high as discussed in the attached article. The chart on SPY forms a near perfect bearish crab pattern. Further, the Aroon indicator notes we are still in a long term down trend. The OBV does show some buying pressure, though the buying volume at present does not match selling volume from December. Further, the RSI is dangerously close to reflecting overbought conditions. Although the MACD histogram is still positive, it is decreasing indicating a potential crossover in the near future. Finally, there is a growing divergence between the price and the Ichimoku cloud portending a correction soon. Trading idea: Don't enter a short position until you see a strong bear candle. After this, you can place a protective stop at the high of that candle, and set a conservative price target at the first fibonacci level at $195.26, or at $192.20 or even $189.81 depending on your risk tolerance.
AMEX:SPYShort
by quantguy
Can Gilead Beat the Markets?As of March 3rd, Gilead earned a 'buy' rating from Citigroup as verified by the link. It is true that GILD should have performed better after earnings as has been historically demonstrated, but it took a beating with the overall index but failed to share in the rebound. Personally, I think this is a good thing, for you'll note from my previous post here previous post that this is nothing but a massive short covering rally, just like we are seeing with oil The good news is that we seem to see see a nice breakout to the upside from the consolidation in terms of a bull triangle. We are not out of the woods yet, as we face resistance from the ichimoku cloud overhead and a neighboring fibonacci level at about $90.30. In fact, the level mentioned above would make a great stop buy order to enter the trade, and clearly that strong level of support at $87.22 would serve as a good stop loss. The subsequent levels after $90.30 make perfect profit targets.
NASDAQ:GILDLong
by quantguy
Massive Short Covering Rally in Oil: Trade AccordinglyThere's been a massive short covering rally of near historic proportions in oil recently. As the OPEC circus continues to 'cry wolf' regarding freezing production, the market, once overwhelmingly short on the commodity, takes the opportunity to cash out some of its short positions. There is really no fundamental reason for oil to rally so hard as the attached article cites. Further, note that the OBV does not indicate any true buying pressure that would warrant such a correction. In fact, it still demonstrates quite a bit of selling pressure, an extreme divergence with price. Further, note the bearish gartley pattern. It is not quite fully complete. But when the price hits anywhere from $40.30-$40.98 (as the pattern has been drawn to anticipate), we'll see almost perfect fulfillment of the ratios. Note further that this level happens to align with a strong fibonacci level on the fibonacci extension (if X-C is to correspond to the 50% fibonacci level). Finally, we see that the 100 period Aroon indicator still notes that we are in a long term downtrend, and the MACD looks due to change directions and head toward a crossover into negative territory. The RSI is very close to indicating overbought conditions as well, to indicate a near perfect setup for a mean reversion short in and of itself, let alone the data cited above. Look for it to retrace at least to 23.6% fibonacci level, if not to fully retrace and visit the $20 handle once again.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
S&P Rally Short LivedWith the tsunami of data this week, it was really hard to sieve out anything stellar. At best, we had employment data that was above expectation on Wednesday, as well as a moderately improved ISM manufacturing index. PMI and Factory Orders left much to be desired. Central Bankers all over the world are scratching their heads and trying in futility to save face against waning markets and negative interest rates that have taken Europe by storm and seem to be spreading at a clip rivaling the Zika virus. So why is S&P rallying? As Keynes himself said, "The Market Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent". With the overtly bearish momentum this year to date, a proverbial 'dead cat bounce' was due. But that's all it is. One of the prime directives of trading is to trade with the volume not against it. This recent buying volume is still paltry with respect to the selling volume which drove the market down. Timing is everything in trading. When can we expect a turnaround? If we take a look at the chart of SPY and apply some fibonacci analysis, we see a bearish butterfly pattern foreshadowing another bearish turnaround. If you apply fibonacci time slice analysis, you see that we can probably expect this to begin as early as tomorrow or to even by market close today. The RSI seems to hint that the market is becoming overbought at this point, and we see a macd cross starting to form at 1 hour intervals. The OBV is still indicating positive pressure which indicates now is not necessarily the time to enter a short position. This is confirmed by the Aroon and ADX indicators as well. Wait for a big bear candle tomorrow or by Monday, 2016-03-07. At this point you can set a stop loss at the base of that candle and ride the trade down to the 0.5, 0.382, or 0.236 levels drawn out.
AMEX:SPYShort
by quantguy
Uptrend Force Makes Breakout LikelyBitcoin has smashed back into the new "downtrend line" from ATH. This 3 day uptrend is a solid trend continuation of the previous 3 day uptrend after a nice correction down to the $360 area. At this point the uptrend has serious momentum just starting. ADX has turned up, CCI is just above 100, and MACD histogram is accelerating into positive territory while the MACD line is trending up from the 0 line. Basically we've hit this "downtrend line" with such force that it's likely to break. If you're long I would hold as long as you can to see if this breaks. If you're not in a position I would wait for the break to happen before going long. If you're short: stop shorting uptrends :D Keep in mind this 3D chart can have some volatility on the lower timeframes, so I would make sure the uptrend is clearly over before going short if this "downtrend line" proves to have any worth.
BLong
by bwy
1
No End to Bearish News for the S&PYesterday, Janet Yellen of the Federal Reserve spoke confirming expectations that the Fed would sit tight on interest rates. She even admitted today that the Fed is considering negative interest rates. Her ominous tone did not bode well for the markets as evinced by the abysmal market opening today here in the US. In fact, the world's markets are rearing from this glut. As for the technicals, we have a bearish Aroon crossover, with the ADX signifying a solid negative trend. Additionally the MACD has crossed over into negative territory, yet the RSI indicates we are not yet oversold. Also note the bearish head and shoulders pattern which suggests we have a way to go before the bulls return. Consider any rallies due to short covering at this point. Fade into any uptrends, for they will be short lived.
SShort
by quantguy
A long term perspective to help with shorter term tradesThe monthly chart has signaled a resumption of the previous massive monthly uptrend that took BTC/USD from $5 to over $1000. The ADX (the blue line on the DMI), which is a measurement of trend strength or momentum, is the main indicator I'm concentrating on with this post. Currently the ADX has switched back into rising mode which shows trend strength increasing in the upward direction. After taking a couple month pause in the first trend leg up the trend is likely to resume shortly, as in by the end of February. This new uptrend comes after a long period of ranging between $300 and $200 or about 1900 CNY to 1300 CNY. After long periods of sideways great trends are likely to form after a breakout of the rang occurs, which currently we broke out to the upside while the ADX confirms we are indeed back in an uptrend on the same breakout bar. I strongly advise people stick to searching for long only bias trades on the smaller time frames, because there is a significant upside bias on the monthly chart. There is a slight possibility this could turn into a fakeout, which then leads to a real downtrend, but I find that to be highly unlikely after spending so many months going sideways. Keep in mind the all time high of $1100 or 7500 CNY had the highest momentum of the entire uptrend. For those who look for divergences in momentum, we have yet to see any in the BTC monthly uptrends. The RSI not included on this chart shows this very clearly. From experience, trends normally get pretty close the previous highs before failing completely so I'd expect this trend to get us close to the all time high if not higher. The ATR indicator I included is a modified ATR that shows a percentage based ATR along with standard deviation bands that identify extreme increases or decreases in volatility. In this case volatility is on the low side still within what would be considered a normal range. I also included the MACD which is self explanatory bullish with an accelerating histogram as well as an above 0, rising momentum MACD line. Good luck in the years to come guys, but I honestly think looking for short trades would be better done a year or so out from a trend perspective. I'd either wait for a massive move up beyond all reason and/or a clear sign of a trend reversal before attempting any shorts. Finally there can be lots of volatility inside the monthly bars, so concentrate on the smaller time frames for your trades. I would only use the monthly chart as a guide for planning.
BLong
by bwy
S&P Solidly BearishAny hopes for a recovery this week were quashed by today's open and marked declines henceforth. There really doesn't seem to be any indication of a turnaround, unless some good data comes out this week, and there is quite a bit to anticipate. As the attached article notes, analysts are cutting their expectations for the S&P, and it would be good advice to any investor heed this warning and do the same. The head and shoulders pattern drawn here indicates a bearish trend, and today's open confirms this. Its a bit oversold at present (although the RSI does not confirm this, yet), but any rally should be a good point at which to enter a short trade, or exit a failing long position, thus easing the sting a bit. As for the technicals, the MACD histogram is still in positive territory but its hanging by a thread and looking to cross soon. The OBV indicates a lot of selling pressure, and ADX indicator is distinctly bearish, and the difference between the up and down components are widening further, despite a recent apparently bullish Aroon crossover.
AMEX:SPYShort
by quantguy
1
Dark times for the EuroFrom political instability to ineffectual QE, bullish news for the Euro is scant. We can look for more confirmation from Draghi to this effect soon to come. As far as the technicals are concerned, we have a very strong bearish head and shoulders pattern forming on the weekly chart. There is massive resistance from above via the ichimoku cloud which will make a turnaround difficult. The MACD is waning and the RSI indicates entry into a position is safe. Further, there seems to be some high selling pressure via the OBV indicator. The Aroon indicator notes that we've entered bearish territory (on a day chart), and the ADX indicator is waning with the MACD, suggesting a collapse may follow soon, perhaps even after Mr. Draghi's speech.
Short
by quantguy
Will Gold resume its Bull run?The decade of bull run from ~$260 in 2001 to $1920 in 2011 (6X) on back of safe haven buying and an investment asset class ended with revival in major global indices and on track economies. The 5 years of slow and steady pain from 2011 to 2016 where gold lost 45% of its glittering from its peak might come to an end. We might witness the resumption in the bullish trend on the back of technical setups. The rationale are: * Morning Star - bullish reversal candlestick pattern * Falling channel support * 38.20% Fibonacci retracement of $260 to $1920 * 2/1 Gann fan line * 141% Fibonacci time cycle of 2001-2011 ends at January 2016 * -DI sloping southwards suggesting bears are tiring The above view would hold till gold doesn't breach $1000 and expect the move towards $1450-1600.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by bbrijesh
Bearish Double Top on NetflixUnfortunately for NFLX on the fundamentals side, they were ousted from Indonesia, which was a prime target for their international expansion endeavors, due to a failure to fulfill their censorship standards. Unfortunately for them, this simply adds to the list of bearish technical indicators despite 'buy' ratings from numerous sources. First, note the bearish Aroon and ADX indicators indicate a solid down trajectory. Also note that the MACD has been bearish for some time now, since before the new year (2016) in fact. Note further the strong selling pressure via the OBV. The optimal time to enter a short position? Wait for a short covering rally sometime in the next week following the massive dive from today, similar to what we saw in oil earlier this week. It will look head for the Ichimoku cloud bound from above, but most likely turn sharply after a Heikin Ashi doji candle when the market ranges for a day or so.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by quantguy
Bearish Head and Shoulders and a Gloomy Outlook for AAPLWhen Apple was using the Power PC line of processors in their computers, I was extremely skeptical of them. Their operating systems prior to OS X were abysmal. They crashed all the time, and the availability of software for anything I wanted to do was scant. Then they started rolling out Intel processors, and updated OS, and a slew of performance upgrades and I was sold. But, as the attached article mentions, the hegemony of AAPL is slipping. From the dreadful abomination that is iTunes, to less intuitive interfaces, to slipping iPhone sales, they are slowly and surely losing ground in the markets. The most obvious support for this statement technically is the bearish head and shoulders pattern apparent here. Next, we see a clear rejection from the important technical and psychological level of $120, and an exodus from the Ichimoku cloud. The MACD is solidly in negative territory, and the Aroon indicator together with the ADX confirms a lot of bearish momentum. The RSI indicator shows AAPL is oversold slightly, and the selling pressure evinced by the OBV seems disparate to the bearish price action, so we may anticipate a small rally soon, but this should be interpreted as a good time to enter a short trade, at around the $104-105 level. The doji candle at present seems to confirm a turnaround, or at least a pause from the recent landslide.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by quantguy
Christmas and new year's eveThis ADX seems to be heading to a third wave that will be stronger than the other previous two. There may be some retracing in between with a short opportunity between now and christmas. I believe we will keep on an old support and won't go below 400. Then Santa's rally will come and keep up till 2016, then.... who knows, hopefully some sideways calm period, perfect for your january vacations. Once the trend on the ADX establishes, it rarely reverses in the middle. Would like to hear your comments.
OKCOIN:BTCUSDLong
by purpurato59
1
ADX Trading System Overview! Link To Video!ADX System Overview So I Came Across Another Trading System for Only $997. However, if you purchased in the next 24hours the whole system could be Yours For Only $497. So I decided to Code it. This is only Version 1, and I discuss in the Video What I’ve found so for, some plans for Version 2 of the indicator, and I ask for your feedback on anything you find. Indicators used in System: CM_DI_Plus_Minus_V1 (Indicator On Bottom). CM_ADX_V1 (Indicator On 2nd Pane). CM_Gann_Swing_Hi_Lo (Indicator on Price Pane). This Indicator was published before…Link Below. Link In Related Ideas Below CM_DI_Plus_Minus_V1 Link In Related Ideas Below CM_ADX_V1 Link In Related Ideas Below In Video I go over settings and how to customize charts. Link To Video: vimeopro.com Link To Downloadable PDF Shown in Video: d.pr
by ChrisMoody
44
BTC/USD Final Destination Upper-Mid $200's (Perhaps Lower)This weekly chart is what I'm using to maintain my short position. Obviously the shorter term signals like the 1D or less are more valuable for spotting reversals, but I'm using this chart to confirm my belief that my 1D signals are all saying this down trend is far from over. In fact it might just be building steam. The weekly MACD has not crossed the 0 line with building momentum in all the MT.GOX data that I can find. This is a serious sell signal (as people are finding out they need to be careful with margin long positions now). With the timing of the ADX turning up to signal a new bear trend starting I'm quite honestly not ruling out that this move might find itself well below $200. However I do not want to get greedy thinking BTC will go to $50, so I'm using the 78% retracement of the entire bull run as a starting target and it seems to line up somewhat close to the most likely candidate for a trend line of the previous bull run (puts us in the upper-mid $200's area). The weekly RSI will have a long way to go to find itself in oversold territory. Notice also that the previous all time high of $1163 shows pretty clear divergence on the RSI as well as ADX (helps to conclude $1163 was the top for now). Finally volume is starting to pick up suggesting this is the new trend. Be careful that a lot of people might think $350 area is bottom. I'm thinking there's a chance it might bounce hard there and planning accordingly.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by bwy
10