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SPY weekly Review 01/30/2023 - All timeframes, & AM routineIn this Video I do a quick analysis of the current condition of markets based on the SP500 proxy index the SPY. I also go through a few weekly data points as I am hoping to publish this every Monday to summarize the week head, and behind. This video is a bit long as I go through all my tools and routines, plus we have a very hectic week this week with FOMC, Earnings, Jobs, PMI, and much more. Inflation data on the horizon also (PCE Index which the FOMC cares most about, not PCI).
AMEX:SPYLong
by Markets-Sniper
Nonfarm Payroll, RBA Interest rates – Week aheadBusy week ahead as September kicks in. As New Zealand and the United States elections slowly approach, the Coronavirus pandemic will most likely be the center focus for many parties and how they handle the post Coronavirus world. Here is your week ahead. Tuesday, 1st September – Germany’s Inflation and Unemployment rate Like most of Europe, Germany is experiencing an uptick in cases as a reopening of Europe too early takes its toll. However, this has not stopped protesters storming the German Government building in Berlin alongside Germany’s total cases ticked over 243,000. With prices of oil slowly increasing, analysts expect inflation to increase slightly by 0.1%. Furthermore, with Germany’s unemployment benefit allowing unemployed citizens to claim up to 67% of their previous wage, analysts predict no change in the unemployment rate at 6.4% in the week ahead. Tuesday, 1st September and Wednesday 2nd September – Reserve bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Australia’s Year over Year GDP. Australia continues to fight a hard battle with the Coronavirus, after their original strategy of having no lockdown has lead to massive spikes in Melbourne, Victoria. Australia recorded 123 new cases of the Coronavirus – all in the state of Victoria. Denita Wawn, Master Builders Australia’s Chief Executive, stated that “Our industry is facing a bath… Private sector investment is evaporating, and the government must step in to save businesses and jobs,” conveying how dire the situation is in Australia. However, the Reverse Bank of Australia is expected to hold interest rates at 0.25%. Any deviation from this consensus is most likely to move the Australian dollar significantly. Furthermore, Melbourne’s sustained lockdown has seen forecasts of GDP growth to drop to -5.3%, down 6.7% GDP growth of 1.4% in the previous quarter. Tuesday 1st September – Italy’s Markit PMI. One of the country’s worst-hit with the Coronavirus, Italy, has recorded over 268,000 cases with cases continue to spike, with newly registered cases yesterday just over 1,200. Italy is predicted to be one of the first to get a grant from the Bloc’s 750 Billion Euro grant as it suffers from worsening GDP growth pre-Coronavirus. Italy is set to release Manufacturing PMI’s to 52, slightly higher from 51.9 last month. Tuesday 1st September – Euro core inflation rate Year over Year Europe is currently experiencing a resurgence in Coronavirus cases as an early lifting of lockdowns just before Summer has forced a spike across Europe. However, many countries are against a second lockdown due to the Economic calamity it will bring. Analysts predict a drop in the inflation growth rate to 0.9%, down from 1.2% in July. Non-farm payroll – Friday, 4th September The United States continues to post daily double-digit Coronavirus cases as their total case count tops 6 Million. As elections approach in just over a month, President Donald Trump continues to let the economy open to win over voters. Non-farm payrolls are predicted to be just over 1.4 million, down from a previous 1.73 million print. As usual, we have many critical economic events that traders need to watch out for to avoid being whipsawed by the market in the week ahead. Trade Cautiously.
SP:SPX
by BlackBull_Markets
GOOG: AlphaBet A Defining Day Ahead AlphaBet GOOG Defining Day Ahead This turned a little tricky on Friday. A mean/invisible gap on the 15 minute chart and not even there on the 60 minute completely arrested the decline fully 8 bucks above the 1180.85 target line. The stop was then lowered to 1201 to protect what was left of the profit from any shorts from the 1206.28 line - the original gap line. The mofo then rallied right back up to kiss the gap line again and left a little spike at the line before falling back again. Looking at the chart in isolation this still looks bearish and it should fall away to make a proper test of the 1180.85 line. But it's going to move on news and right now in very near term hopes of a peace deal with China on trade could help GOOG gap up on the open and to jump the 1206.28 line in one bound. If so it has to hold up from there on any retest. Only then will Goog (and markets too) be out of clear and present danger. That looks best case scenario from here... As the chart currently stands Goog will remain vulnerable whilst trapped below the 1206.28 gap line. Whilst unable to break and hold above here then markets should also find difficulty in advancing further from this point. It's still weak whilst trapped inside the channel shown on the chart. Maybe it will open just around the gap line and maybe twitch either side for a little while - which way it breaks from there will be most likely decide the direction of major markets too. But on an overall view, this ended last weak looking weak still. Its only way out from here is to gap up and hold above that key gap line on retests. Right now GOOG looks like it will continue to be the bellweather for markets in general, the canary in the mine. Hopefully it will help to determine direction for Nasdaq and SandP and other majors and be as helpful as a confirming signal as it has tended to be in the past. For fastest updates on stocks and major markets please see link at top-left of main page.
NASDAQ:GOOG
by sumastardon
USOIL: WTI June 3 Trade Points For Week AheadWTI USOIL: June 3rd Trade Points for Week Ahead Good call/bad call last week here. Was looking to close out the short as the week began at around the 66.48 line and then reversed long from here looking for 69.48. A forlorn hope.The rally got as high as 68.63 before failing away to end the week 1 pip below the next key support at 65.55 - and busted out the long stop just under 66.47 for a few pips loss as it fell, before a little bear closing at the end of the week to finish at 65.69. This price action has left WTI on a knife edge, saved by the closing bell at the downside limit and in desperate need of buyers right here to avoid a another plunge to 61.92 initially. Any fall below 65.40 can be shorted using a stop above the 66.48 line to begin with looking for 61.92 initial downside..Any subsequent fall below here will signal further weakness to 60.21 and later to 58.25 as we move through the summer months Looking at upside potential from here, the 65.55-65.50 level is critical to the medium term trend. Bulls know full well this is their last stand for the summer ahead. It may well try to rally away from here but am not looking to buy it again after the pattern it's made since the last rally attempt. But it may tempt contarians...in which case please use a stop only 10 or so pips under the lows of last week and be ready to reverse short if broken. Am hoping for a good break lower here - but it may defy us a while longer yet if it can find some respite right here. If so, be prepared wait a little longer still or perhaps consider setting an alert
TVC:USOILShort
by sumastardon
1
ETHUSD Update and Key Levels AheadETHUSD Update and Key Levels Ahead Won't quit - grinding higher off a new little dynamic still forming - so far so good still. First support for day traders at 589. Then Near term support building at 564 with more important medium term support at 543. On the upside we can see clear congestion at 610 up to 615 - an eventual break and hold above here would be very bullish for the more medium term, tempting more buyers long to 643 in the nearterm and then in stages to 685 and higher still in medium term. The 609/615 range therefore looks quite likely to be the key area to watch and trade off over the coming days here.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by sumastardon
4
UK100: FTSE 100 Index Trade Set-Ups For Week AheadFTSE 100 Index UK100 Since making a seasonal high on 22nd May FTSE has fallen away down a narrow impulse wave and chanelled down the smaller falling pair of parallels from the new high. Whist constrained within the channel FTSE remains vulnerable to further selling pressure back to the first minor support line at 7691. Failure to hold here will trigger a shorting opportuninty back to the 7600-75832 range where it should attempt to bounce away to the upside again. Looking beyond that bounce, should 7580 fail further out in time FTSE will likely fall away much further over the summer, to a new downside target in the 7335-7294 range. Returning to the upside FTSE has to break back above the upper parallel carrying the current down-wave for the bears to back off again now - it can do this, but only if 7691 holds up on London open. This level looks key to the near term. It must hold here and bounce up through the upper falling parallel and then hold up on the restest once it is broken above - if we see this kind of price action soon after the open can look to get long with stops under the 7690 level, but still ready to reverse again short if the stop is broken by 10 or more points.
OANDA:UK100GBP
by sumastardon
WTI: USOIL A Big Week of Opportunities AheadWTI USOIL Week Ahead WTI has fallen away in a straight line ever since the short triggered on Thursday and is now around 390 or so pips to the good. It should fall away a little lower still, towards the first support line at 67.22 and can spike down to 66.48 at likely lowest before it starts to bounce away to the upside again. Look to close out at least half of the short and drop the stop on the rest to just 11 pips above current close (but not until London opens). We should see a good rally from this range back as high as the 69.48 line. If wrong at this point and WTI finds no support arriving from London it will then plunge lower still until it can find buyers again at the 65.55 line where dynamic and fixed support lines meet. From a bull perspective this level must hold through the coming week at lowest. Any failure here will tip WTI into deeper bear territory still and force a capitulation move back to 61.92. Some good trades still to be had from this complex. Second only to Bitcoin for volatility and fine trades - but the spread is wider, which is odd considering the great old age of one complex against the infant's age of the other. The old and the new. Probably the two best playing-fields across the entire spectrum of investments - for active traders and momentum traders alike. But ETH is beginning to challenge this hierarchy as the weeks pass by. More on that one later
TVC:USOILShort
by sumastardon
2
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Potential for A Positive Weekend AheadBitcoin Saturday Trades Bitcoin survived through the night by moving into a triangle formation off the lows before breaking into the weekend with a break above the uppermost parallel, followed by a sweet and successful retest of the same line from above once broken, before finally rallying again off the dynamic and triggering the first long for a while now. Thank F for weekends! Bitcoin's saving grace. It's now on weekend release... It's since shot up to 7624 high, to just under the 7644 line on Bitinex and it has to consolidate here a while before the rally can recommence. It should find support from the 7524 line and from 7467 at worst before it starts to rally again. Am happy, so far at least, to stay long for the ride. On the downside Bitcoin will have to break back below 7399 line here and hold under it to consider switching back to short again from this point. For now though, it's back to buying dips unless 7399 gives way at any point further out this weekend.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
7
FB: Facebook Life and TimesFacebook:FB Life And Times This chart shows Facebook from it's IPO to the present. In less than 6 years FB has risen from an all-time low just under 18 to an all-time high at 195. Once or twice per year it usually makes a rough 20-24% correction - but, as with so many stocks, has not corrected properly for over 18 months now, ever since the election surprise.There's a gap on the chart at 155.5. Taking 20% off the top gives a 156 target which is also structure highs to left of price on chart, so there is a a good chance it will find support there when touched. Providing it steadies here and starts to fight at 155 it should start to rally back to 164 before it comes off again. If wrong here and the upper range of the structure to left is not strong enough to support FB come Monday, it will most likely spike lower still to test the lower end of the same structure at 145-144, offering a potential entry point with stops under 143 if we see it this week. Also worth noting: there has only ever been one violation of the long term trend line/lower parallel - for one day. All tests of this line have been longer term buying opportunities, even that scary-looking one day violation.
F
by sumastardon
3
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Saturday Trade Points Bitcoin: BTCUSD Next Trade Points Saturday Yesterday's price action has created another bear flag, smaller in scale than the one sitting above it, but so far quite simailar. It looks to be better defined than the last one which hopefully will create a signal worth trading off when it comes... The overall pattern is still bearish so the break, when it comes, should be downwards. But this is Bitcoin. We need to be ready for either eventuality this weekend. On downside a break below the lower parallel of the continuation pattern at 8070 will flip Bitcoin back to negative again and it should then begin to slide away further to 7700. Any failure to hold this level during the course of this weekend would then be likely to attract even more bears out of the woods and force Bitcoin back down through the support lines to 7547, then 7221 and then right back to 5915 on Bitstamp. Worth following once 8070 gives way with stops 100 or so higher. On the upside Bitcoin has to break and hold above 8460 to trigger a long up to 8847 initially, then a second long from 8855 to 9360-9467 range. Any such upside price action can be followed if we see it. It may look unlikely. But we still need to cover it just in case.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
3
Nasdaq 100 Index Potential Trade Points for Week AheadNasdaq 100 Index NAS100 The gyrations of February have created some interesting patterns on Nasdaq. After rallying to double top around 7000 it has subsequently fallen away to create a continuation pattern under the high, finishing the week by closing at the upper parallel of what may be a bull flag in formation. For that to remain the case Nasdaq has to push on higher from here, up through the uppermost small parallel of the potential flag. And that same parallel has to hold up on the next retest from above if and when it is broken above. If it can manage this then the pattern changes from negative/vulnerable to positive. If we see it happen we can follow long again. But until we see this price action materialise this index is still vulnerable and whilst unable to burst higher from here is therefore liable to fall away again on lack of buyers. If so the next question/clue will be: can make a higher low at around the 6694 line ? - that would be first bull signal - and the second would be breaking back above the upper parallel and holding on retest (above) - if so, it can be followed long. Worth watching in the opening 30 minutes or so of whipsaw as the market opens - we may see a chance of a long emerging as the dust clears a little 30 to 60 minutes in. If so it should re-visit the highs again at 7000-7035. A move above 7045 would in turn be another very bullish signal, suggesting further medium term strength up to 7660 and nearer term strength to 7246. However, until Nasdaq can make this break higher it's still vulnerable to a potentally large sell off again. Near term support at 6775, then 6994-6687 and last gasp for the bulls from here at 6614. It must hold up here during the course of this new week if it is avoid a further and potentially steeper decline back to 6371, presenting a good short if we see it develop at any point over the next day or two.
FX:NAS100
by sumastardon
S&P 500 Index: SPX - The Trump Roller-Coaster Ride in 2dS&P 500 Index SPX The Trump Rollercoaster Ride in 2d - The post-Trump rally in the S&P has been a text-book affair, with 4 clear phases and speeds, like a car going through the gears. First gear is the lower parallel with a direct hit on the day after the election in November 2016. It rallies and then drops in gear/speed, the technical equivalent of double-de- clutching, in a rising continuation pattern, which goes on all through the following summer. Then in mid-November, a year after the paradigm shift, it picks up speed and slams into 3rd. And then right on the turn of the new year 2018 it takes off vertically, a final straight-line ascent with another perfect speed/trend/dynamic support line running right under the lows. It is about as technically perfect as you can find (outside of Bitcoin, of course). The great 37% Trump rally then ends with a complete break/fracture as the SPY gaps down from the support line (exit all longs!) and then dances in thin air (think:Wile.E Coyote, green arrow) for a little while and then collapses and creates another gap - thereby creating an island reversal at the top - one of the most rare and powerful and reliable reversal signals of all in a major market index. (Bulkowski does not differentiate much between indices and individual stocks in this respect which is a shame as both behave quite differently. Island reversals are rare at both tops and bottoms in major market indices, usually). Whatever, the result was spectacular. A week of mayhem took the index crashing back to the lowest 2 parallels' intersection /gears 1 and 2 again - before rebounding. It finished last week right under an important near term resistance line at 2690 and which extends to 2701 on this chart - this index is still in danger of further correction whilst below here. I has to move above 2702 and hold up there through the opening 30 minutes - if it can manage this the bulls are likley to push it on tup to 2714 to begin with and then after a little while consolidating on up to 2748. Two near term potential long trade set-ups. Returning to the downside, the S&P is still vulnerable to further correction whilst unable to break and hold above 2701-4 on SPY - even if it can manage to rally and hold above 2704 it's unlikely to get much higher than the 2749-2755 range before falling away again so will not be pushing it here even if we see upside trades trigger. It really looks like it needs to come back and retest the lower parallels again in the 2555-2550 range before it can really hope to stabilise. At all costs the lows at 2539-2530 must hold up this week on any retest. And if we do see this retest unfold at any point will be looking to buy here so long as it starts to hold and fight in this range for 5 minutes or more but still ready to reverse this tentative/speculative long shot if triggered by the price action needed. Because if not and it breaks lower than 2530 it will open a good shorting opportunity back to 2488 at least and maybe 2416-2400 range at lowest before the next great rally commences. An interesting week lies ahead for the S&P and by extension the savings/retirement accounts of pretty much everyone in the world. Really want to be wrong on this one. But it just doesn't look safe whilst stuck under 2700.
SP:SPXShort
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD A Decisive Night Lies AheadBitcoin BTCUSD Decisive Night Ahead Bitcoin is now approaching the last major dynamic resistance potential between here and the highs on both Bitfinex and Coinbase charts - though not on Bitstamp. We've seen it just under double so far, gaining 5250 points on Bitfinex from the 6000 low. It can go one of two ways from here: 20:13gmt/15:13est Update and Bull Set-Up First off, was really looking to stay long up to the next line of fixed resistance at 11438 on Bitfinex today but so far the first line at 11257 has proved too much with an intra day high at 11250 so the long from 10840 today got closed out for 400 or so points profit on the first test of the line. Since then there has been a 200 point gain on another quick long from 10900 to 11100 - around 600 points or so. Now it's getting trickier again. The hourly candle shows pretty much a spinning top with pin above as long as it is deep below...indecision, sideways movement likely now...can move sideways to the big dynamic and then comes the crunch. It's Bitcoin, boys. It can always go either way. So we need to cover both the 2 alternatives...The Bull Break: Bitcoin finds buyers enough out of far East or when it opens (or even earlier) to push above the big dynamic and to hold and not fizzzle out by 2am gmt/21:00est - that would be a super-bullish outcome and if it comes at any point tonight must be followed with stops below the dynamic when first broken line by 100 points or so or alternatively, depending on price action, can wait for retest from above once broken ... This break to the upside is a big ask - may well prove too much on this first attempt. But it's Bitcoin. It's done stranger things before - it really can go either way from here. The Second alternative from here: The Bear Break: We need to keep in mind what could still develop from here - which is that Coinbase is leading and saying the rally is done ....and now this last few hours is just unspent upward momentum now running out of steam...if so, the chart will tell us by Bitcoin not being able to push higher above that last big line of last dynamic resistance on Coinbase - so this thing needs watching more carefully than ever for the next few hours...fairly obviously it needs more buyers now if, as we did in the chat room, you bought the dip back to 10900ish - the worry it that it grinds higher slowly and with no real power behind it as we move towards the far east opening...and then tops out ...we just need to be very vigilant tonight - and if it does recoil from the dynamic holding back price on Coinbase and then it goes on to break the last dynamic support line on Bitfinex just around 10600 now ...that would be the signal for swing traders to exit too and also for day traders to start opening short positions on the next rally back towards the now broken trend line. It should fall away to 9500 and then if this fails to 8900 - and has the potential to break much lower still...depends on the shape of the decline - this is the 'bad ' side of the Bitcoin coin, potentially. May never happen but forewarned is forearmed. Time as always will tell us the answer. We follow. To do that we have to see the upper dynamic broken to move back to full-on bull mode from here. Until then we need to tread carefully if still long here. Try not to second guess it too much but be ready to follow the next big signal coldly either way when it comes.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
6
FTSE 100:UKX On Critical Support: Key Day Ahead MondayFTSE 100:UKX Critical Support and Key Day ahead for FTSE At the beginning of the year FTSE was forecast to hit the upper parallel and a maximumhigh at 7818 before coming off again. It duly hit the upper parallel spot on butthe high was a few days earlier than anticipated and the eventual high was reached at 7778, some 40 points shy of maximum likely near- term upside. Since then it's fallen all the way back its start point for the year. Up 10% and back down 10% in 6 short weeks. The action looks unlikely to stop now. In fact it could be just beginning. Probably the greatest trader who ever lived, WD Gann, told us to measure time cycles from high to low and low to high as well as high to high and low to low and look for potential changes in trend as these hiddden cycles repeat themselves down through time. Previous cycle highs identified the exact date of the high in 2007 as well as the subsequent high reached in April 2015 just at the point that markets began a 10 month 20+% correction (for more details please PM) . This cycle marks the period from 10.03.09 major crash low through to the next major cycle low on 06.03.09. From major cycle low to low is 9 years ...which now brings us, after a 9 year long bull run, to the coming 23 to 27 days, culminating in the anniversary dates between 3rd march and 10th March 2018... FTSE is already teetering on the brink of critical support at 7092. It has to cling on here on Monday for any failure will tip this index into bearish territory and trigger a short back to 6868 at least - and then if this level in turn gives way back to 6680-6637. Beneath here the next major support potential lies at the lower parallel and below here at 5777. So if 7090 gives way on Monday by more than 10 points look to short this index with stops above 7099, targeting 6870 initially, then the 6680-6637 range if 6860 fails to hold during Monday. It's quite probable that should 7090 fail come Monday, this Index will fall away in stages to test the lower parallel at 6004 on around 5th March - and only then bounce away to the upside again.This will present some wonderful shorting opportunities along the descent. However, in the very near term it's likely that contrarian traders will look to go long here, simply because the stop is so close (20 points away maximum now) but ready to reverse short as above if 7090 gives way by more than 10 points. Time, as always, tells.
TVC:UKX
by sumastardon
Gold XAUUSD Bull Flag ahead of FOMC dataGold: XAUUSD This is interesting - it isn't a crypto - it's gold but it's making a familiar pattern with just 25 minutes to go to FOMC data release...it can go to the upper parallel and fail which mean dollar strength and it can can do what seems to be predicting...a bull flag with 2 strikes on the lower parallel = hot, still even at these levels - which in turn means dollar/DXY cold, still, even at these low levels. Admit to being wary of whipsaw in the minutes following the data so want to stand clear and wait for the dust to settle - which may be quickly ....but it will be interesting to see if this develops as the flag is currently suggesting it will. If so gold will likely revisit the highs - but it's as if it's primed - is it a trap?...let's see
FX:XAUUSD
by sumastardon