Alaska — Trading Ideas on TradingView

Analysts Revise Alaska Air Group Forecasts Ahead of Earnings Alaska Air Group Inc. (NYSE:ALK) is scheduled to report its first-quarter earnings results after markets close on Wednesday, April 23. Analysts expect the airline to post a loss of $0.77 per share. This compares to a loss of $0.92 per share during the same period last year. Revenue is projected to come in at $3.16 billion, up from $2.23 billion a year earlier, according to Benzinga Pro. The company last reported earnings on January 22, posting better-than-expected results for both revenue and earnings per share. As anticipation builds for the upcoming earnings call, several top analysts have adjusted their outlooks. Barclays analyst Brandon Oglenski maintained an "Overweight" rating on April 8 but lowered the price target from $80 to $62. Susquehanna’s Christopher Stathoulopoulos, with a 74% accuracy rate, kept a "Positive" rating but cut the price target from $95 to $55 on April 7. UBS's Thomas Wadewitz downgraded the stock to "Neutral" from "Buy" and dropped the target from $75 to $54. On March 18, Citigroup analyst Stephen Trent reaffirmed a "Buy" rating and slightly trimmed the price target from $83 to $81. JP Morgan’s Jamie Baker raised the target from $85 to $89 while maintaining an "Overweight" rating on March 3. On Tuesday, Alaska Air shares rose 2.93% to close at $44.94. Technical Analysis The stock found support near the $44 level, forming a potential base. If this support holds, ALK may target the $50 range or higher. However, a break below support could push the price down toward $40. All major moving averages are trending lower. The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages stand at $57, $61, and $51, respectively, signaling ongoing bearish momentum.

Alaska Airlines' Weight and Balance System Glitch Alaska Airlines ( NYSE:ALK ) faced a hiccup in its operations as flights were temporarily grounded due to an issue with the system responsible for calculating weight and balance. The incident, which affected both Alaska Airlines ( NYSE:ALK ) and its regional carrier Horizon Air, prompted swift action from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and sparked concerns among passengers and investors alike. The Glitch: On a routine morning, Alaska Airlines ( NYSE:ALK ) encountered an unexpected obstacle during an upgrade to its weight and balance system. This essential component, crucial for ensuring flight safety, malfunctioned, prompting the airline to halt all departures. The ripple effect was felt across the aviation industry, causing disruptions in travel plans and triggering a flurry of activity both on social media and in financial markets. FAA Intervention: Recognizing the severity of the situation, the FAA swiftly responded by implementing a ground stop on Alaska Airlines' mainline departures. This precautionary measure, while necessary for ensuring passenger safety, underscored the gravity of the issue at hand. However, it's noteworthy that flights operated by SkyWest, a regional service provider, were exempted from the grounding, highlighting the localized nature of the problem. Impact on Operations and Investors: The temporary grounding sent shockwaves through Alaska Airlines' ( NYSE:ALK ) operations, leading to delays and inconvenience for passengers. While the airline assured travelers of efforts to minimize disruptions, the incident undoubtedly left a dent in its reputation for reliability. Investors, too, closely monitored the developments, with shares of Alaska Air Group ( NYSE:ALK ) initially dipping in response to the news before recovering some ground. The rollercoaster ride in stock prices reflected the uncertainty surrounding the incident and its potential ramifications for the company's bottom line. Road to Recovery: As Alaska Airlines ( NYSE:ALK ) navigates through the aftermath of the glitch, the focus now shifts to restoring normalcy in operations. The airline's commitment to addressing passenger concerns and swiftly resolving the technical issue is paramount in rebuilding trust and confidence among travelers. Additionally, enhancing system resilience and redundancy measures could mitigate the risk of similar incidents in the future, safeguarding both passenger safety and the company's reputation.

$ALK Breakout On the Hour The market looks to be doing well this morning for select stocks. Will momentum continue for a true breakout?

Beware the Little Man in the Cockpit BPT has had a wonderful run this year, but a fundamental catalyst will result in an abrupt breakdown from the larger Head and Shoulders, triggering with a break underneath the smaller Head and Shoulders at $11.50. That H&S, formed after rejecting from the 125 Exponential Moving Average, is the little pilot for the larger rocket ship pointing downward. As you can see, not much support exists beneath that level. The catalyst will be; BPT was the most generous payer of dividends on the entire stock marke, but the payouts are set to expire in 2023. Investors are going to bail. Unlike most royalties, BPT has high liquidity and moves with great volatility. I'm scouting follow through with these reversal patterns, and then I'll position a short.

The (Overconfident) Virgin Airlines The Overconfident Virgin Airlines (Flying High) History of "our" mysterious "Arctic Airlines" started unbelievably in the 1930’s when "someone" (ET?) came back to the airline and opened a liquor store in Alaska and the airline somehow made money flying liquor to remote Alaskan communities of maybe Eskimos who lived under one of the best spots on earth to "see" the Northern Lights?! Today Alaska Air Cargo still has one of the most extensive air cargo operations on the west coast its very surprising how much "air cargo" comes from Asia though Alaska?! This was was (however) the 1930’s and the airlines was trying to stay in business during the “the Great Depression” "aftermath" (that didn't involve corrupt algorithmic trading schemes praying on "individuals" wanting more)… back then the airline would and maybe would do “anything?” to stay in the air.. including transport liquor to people living and working in the far far North Arctic lights? Very very recently (by comparison to the 1930’s Great Depression), Alaska Airlines “purchased or consumed” a smaller San Francisco “operated" business of the well known “Virgin Airlines” with the familiar label “Virgin” on all their airplanes. (the airline isn’t really a “virgin”...) The CEO of Alaska was a bit egotistical and even decided to make the “costly” decision of stripping and repainting all the “Virgins”. In some sense Alaska chose NOT TO ALLOW “diversity” and paint instead a “eskimos” as the “leader of the new airline industry”. The company maybe felt more interested in “airline homogeneity” then “airline diversity”. So the “Virgin” disappeared. And into "thin air" almost overnight the airlines “stripped” all the logos from "their" airplanes. The “pink” “virgin” airplanes still flew for Alaska and looked really hilarious however the words “More to Love” where painted over for the price of maybe about $200,000... According to the airlines (Alaskan) history, this wasn’t the first time the Alaska Airlines purchased a “stylish” or “in-vogue” brand name, in fact "in the beginning" there were too many airlines in Anchorage Alaska and not enough demand to support them and thats how Alaska got "big" perhaps in the 1980's? However, this was 1934, when the “president of the company” sold the “name of the game” to “Star Air Service” perhaps a much better name but somehow Alaska Airlines survived? Today’s stock price of Alaska Airlines is VERY high. In an internal note to Alaska employees, CEO Brad Tilden said that passenger demand is currently about 85% below normal levels. As a result, he wrote, “our cash burn rate is currently $430 million per month, or over $14 million per day.” these numbers DO NOT MAKE SENSE.. the company makes ONLY about $700 Million A YEAR (according to a recent “Income Statement”) for an entire YEAR but looses $430 a month according to the “boss?”???? The graph you are seeing looks at the On Balance Volume as well as the Volume Price Trend which is a multiple and sum of volume. In some sense "volume" is more important then "price". There is also a money flow oscillator at the bottom which includes both the volume and price over 24 month osculations. Alaska has given everyone a “fairly pleasant and comfortable” ride at least from a “stock market perspective since about 2009. Alaska didn’t see “any” major problems until AFTER about 2017 and this was the first "really big problems" for the Arctic? and in the recent history of the company. The real "first PRICE loss of altitude" was in 2009 to 2007. Alaska started to become a medium sized company around 1981’s and a “large” company after about 1993’s and an “international player” around 2009. We will likely “not know” the truth about the airlines “affairs” until about November of 2020? (Thanksgiving?) Hope this helps you! Asher

The 12 Apostles of Oil? (the future of “downstream assets")What is the future of the Oil Industry? (A detailed study of Assets) In the oil industry and in “the big-time” cooperate business “masters of business administration” "obese operations world" there is a term called “downstream”. Some companies get so chubby that they essentially dont need any of there sales stores that they actually sell their products in… in the oil industry a lot of companies “don't need gas stations” anymore so they “spin off” what is called their “downstream assets” and basically the gas stations are no longer part of the company. However, there is good and bad sides to this, it makes it easy to “own a McDonald’s franchise” but difficult to do anything “differently” or create “unique competition” with the financiers or the people that gave you the money. And the law is typically behind the “money” and not the people who own and run the businesses day to day. For all practical industrial reasons ConocoPhillips (and perhaps all of the Earths Major Oil Operations) are not an American company or really “any specific” countries company. In fact the complexity of it all may minimizes a lot of the local legal business risks. Perhaps one of the more interesting locations for “western” oil is 26 million square feet of “oil” headquarters in an area called the “Energy Corridor District” of West Houston Texas, The Energy Corridor is a business district in Greater Western Houston, Texas one of the largest cities in America and the location of many major “energy sector companies” operations including BP America, Citgo, ConocoPhillips, and Shell Oil Company and about 300 other smaller companies. Non-energy firms also have a presence including companies like Sysco and the largest company in the area is actually not involved with Oil originally they where a “former deep sea fishing company”. Perhaps the most important strategic locations for ConocoPhillips is in the far north arctic and hot very very way way too hot Houston Texas. I was very surprised at how large the industrial complex was in the far north of Alaska. Before I knew almost anything about ConocoPhillips I was studying “the last and many of the most difficult road to find and get to on earth” and one of them was in the super far north of northern Alaska all the way up very near ConocoPhillips possible Oil Operations. Its one of the only roads in the far far north of Alaska that actually has google street view. One of the reasons I was interested in this place in particular is because Alaska is one of the “best places” on earth to go and “see the northern lights”. My friend told me about this place in the far arctic north of Alaska called “dead horse”… and she told me she use to drive up there when she lived in Anchorage sometimes to go and see the northern lights. She said that the northern lights up there come in all different types of colors. Alaska is one of the earths and Americas last “wild (natural and environmental) frontiers” if you even want to call it that? While I didn’t find any oil operations up there I did find a very small “remote” grocery store that apparently the only way to get food was by “air” and I was kinda interested in “shipping foods” (as a potential business opportunity and foods research) to strange an unusual places like the arctic and the thousands of islands in the deep pacific. Perhaps the most “environmentally dangerous” locations that companies like ConocoPhillips operates are not on land where national governments can visit and carefully regulate and “help” oil operations but the most interesting and dangerous are deep at sea. From what I’ve hearing from someone who works in the oil industry (as a friend of a really good geologist and person who likes to just study the earth for fun) on one of these oil platforms is that there is so much money involved that sometimes its like working on an “extremely dangerous pirate ship operation deep at sea” and its a very dangerous “man vs man” business in the deep sea “some people just don't come back” and the laws and rules are very different when your out in the middle of the sea… and especially on these deep sea oil rigs “if you talk too much… you might die…”? Some of the most interesting and “dangerous” operations are located in a very unusual “side” of north western Australia near a town called “Darwin” Australia. Its rather different in Darwin and a remote northern side and even a little west of the “geological space needle” of Queensland Australia that points into the very large and indigenous “tribal islands” area of Asia Pacific Asia also known as the very special and mysteriously and extremely important geological island of “New Guinea”. Unbelievably off the coast of Australia the company ConocoPhillips was able to essentially “buy” two, three actually 4??! entire fairly large “islands of gas” in the sea… These are not especially “deep waters” they are called “basins”. Two of these islands are called “Barossa and Caldita” in an area called BAYU-UNDAN in the “Timore Sea”… collectively these “islands of petrol gas and oil” are about 50 miles by 50 miles in total and they essentially “own them” through some type of “permits WA-315-P, WA-398-P and TP-28”? There is even a 200 mile “pipeline” in the middle of all this ocean essentially “shipping” the oil from BAYU-UNDAN all the way 200 miles back to Darwin Australia perhaps for “processing”? If your interested in the details of how these pipelines work you should for sure take a look at the ConocoPhillips “fact sheet” from March of 2020 its very interesting to read the details about each location. To work on these types of large oil projects many companies decrease their risk by working with other forging companies. Some of the companies Conoco Phillips is working out in the middle of the south east asian islands includes a lot of companies I’ve never known anything about but are probably very very large or at least have enough money and ability to get “deep sea permits” or make it look like its a “real” permit. Co-Venturers include… Origin Energy (40.0%), PetroChina (20.0%) Santos (25.0%), SK Energy (37.5%) Co-venturer: 3D Oil (25.0%), Co-venturer: PETRONAS (40.0%) Source: Conoco Phillips Corporate “Fact Sheet” March 2020 (PDF) Whats particularly interesting to me as an amateur “arctic researcher” is that “most” or “many” of Conoco’s (easier) operations are located near very very unusual “polar arctic pivot points”. These are areas for example where you can see the “northern” lights a glowing light in the sky or where there is really good “arctic fishing” (like off the coast of Norway) Whats interesting about this “American” company and perhaps many other oil companies is that 50% of all their employees (or technically they dont call them employees they say “payroll”) is say 17% Norwegen, 6% Indonesian, 7% Canadian, and 8% Australian (see website for latest details) There are other very interesting “Conoco” locations off Tasmania … Tasmania is a very interesting point and its one of the most interesting islands on earth for really truly “cosmic” reasons. It “points” to the magnetic fields of the antarctic… For example if you use a “regular compass” on Tasmania the fields point “directly” to the south pole and the location of “magnetic pole”. This is a very very strange island and very very beautiful island too to the “southern magnetic field” or the “real” southern pole. If you have time for sure look up “ The Twelve Apostles” and take a look at the pictures… its an amazing natural wonder of the world that isn’t wildly widely known about. It maybe interesting to see if some of these oil companies might “invest” in building “lookout tours or tours” in the local naturalization parks to help people “see whats going on naturally”… See: Wikipedia "The_Twelve_Apostles_(Victoria)" While there are other “oil” locations that Conoco + Philips is working another very interesting location related to the “magnetic fields” is at the “tail” of Argentina or what you might think of as the “connecting tail” of Antarctica to mainland “South America” (also known as Patagonia)? This oil “field” location is near (on on both borders of Argentina and Chile) its one of the most important famous and amazing “brilliantly” bright light blue melting glaciers. The pictures of this glacier goes on and on for as far as the eye can see and there is a strange “thawing mist” above the glaciers and strange bright blue ice burgs. While I’m not going to focus on “all” the important operations they are ALL very very interesting to study. Because at one time these had a lot of “bio” mass or “fish”. From a financial standpoint the oil rigs off the coast of Norway and in Northern Alaska maybe make the most sense and are the “safest” because they are “on land”. While the others located near the center of all the pacific islands and also “non great barrier” reef areas but “mini pacific island banks basin reefs” these are (Mystical places off the cost of Malaysia, Indonesia and Darwin Australia). These operations pose the most “public” environmental catastrophic risks to both the environment and the actual stock price. And if something goes wrong… few people know about it and yet all the fish know about it. One of the most helpful projects Conoco is working on is actually located in Columbia. Columbia is not just “any country” in south America. Its the “center” of the “bridge” with north america and Central America. Columbia is the only country in all of south America with both Pacific Ocean and Atlantic Ocean “connections” and is “co sponsored” with another company called CNE Oil & Gas S.A. (20.0%). The reason this project is so important to the rest of South America is because its helps with “real” international relations and is maybe the only time people there get to work with people in North America in something other then politics. A project like this also helps to bring “new wealth” to the country. However, Columbia is so important strategically that it maybe “the only hope” for stabilizing Venezuela with all of Central America and even preventing a “price war” over Oil with North America. Its not important to work with North America but it is important to work with modern x-drug lords soon to be “Oil Lords” of Columbia. There are many possibilities of (neighboring) projects even though on a map these areas seem small and insignificant. Some oil “rigs” deep at see cost hundreds of millions of dollars to build and then suddenly sink for “no reasons”… Oil has the power to help develop “big industry” that might help organize other industry possibly including Nuclear Power. So what starts as a simple project in Columbia or even just “exploration” as they call it is VERY important even if its just a 50 mile by 50 mile “permit”. In fact the oil discovered in Venezuela (suddenly became) the largest supply of oil on earth making sailing all the way to Saudi Arabia seem insane when you can sail from Houston to Venezuela almost over night. These projects with companies like CNE Oil & Gas S.A. (20.0%) are extremely complex and not necessarily “American” China and India has Oil needs too? This area of Columbia is “near” the “back door” to the amazon and a futuristic and yet “indigenous” high mountain cocaine tribal culture that may one day “have ideas that will blow everyones minds” about how to work with “natural resources”. For now we dont know what oil companies are really trying to find in the “high mountain areas” like Columbia other then the worlds most important “new sexy hip” former “cocaine drug lords” towns like Bogotá and Medellín Columbia? Anyway, I hope you have really enjoyed and learned a lot from this “story” of Conoco a company that an “American” oil company founded in 1875 as the Continental Oil and Transportation Co. :) Asher

Alaska Airlines 10 to 1 Risk to Reward Trade Low risk, high reward trade into Alaska Airlines. 2% risk for 20% reward using pitchfork analysis, moving averages, and time analysis.

ALK - Alaska Air on the radar Alaska Air is currently trading at the top of its downtrend channel, a bearish engulfing pattern is currently forming (although we'll need to wait for the close to confirm) and the RSI has already turned down from a high level....

October 25 Earnings: Alaska Air - Bankruptcy & PRASM Alaska Air has been absent from the recent airlines rally as the company struggles to regain momentum after weather related issues. The company's integration of Virgin Airways is a mega-plus for the Airline after organic routes kept coming under weather-related pressures. It's recent venture with Singapore Air will be another plus for the Airline's Asia connection flights. However, rising costs are likely going to dampen profits and margins, worth taking note of but not enough to outweigh pros. Recent pilot union deal, higher Virgin Air merging costs and 12% higher fuel costs are a further "downer" for the quarter. I am starting the company with an $85.00 PT for an extended 2-3 month post-earnings move. A stop at $75, near recent lows is subject to post-earnings review.