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Alsi40

JSE ALSI 40 is a mess - Bearish bias to 63,460Yep, the JSE ALSI 40 is in yet another Twilight Zone. We see sideways motion, prior downtrend and there are sideways indicators. The bearish bias part of it is that price is below 200MA. The RSI is showing lower highs (Bearish divergence). We also see low volume on the buying side. More importantly, we have a flat monday with no conviction... And if the price does break below the Symmetrical Triangle, we could see downside in the week. The target could be very well to 63,460. Here is your weekly wrap up. The U.S. stock markets mostly closed higher, with a significant highlight being the S&P 500 surpassing the 5,000-point level for the first time. The growth was driven primarily by big tech companies and a variety of sectors including software, semiconductors, communications, media, regional banks, trucking, apparel retailers, auto suppliers, and Chinese tech stocks showing notable performance. Conversely, sectors such as real estate, energy, food & beverage, cruise lines, and casual diners lagged behind. Microsoft stood out by achieving a 1.6% rise in its shares, which boosted its market capitalization to $3.125 trillion, marking the highest valuation ever for an American company. Additionally, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note closed at 4.166%. In europe: In Europe, equity markets ended the day lower, with technology, media, and healthcare sectors leading the gains, while food & beverage, real estate, and utilities faced declines. General indices: Market performance indices closed as follows: S&P 500 up by 0.57%, Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 0.14%, Nasdaq up by 1.25%, FTSE 100 down by 0.30%, DAX down by 0.22%, and CAC 40 down by 0.24%. Asian markets Asian equity markets saw minimal activity, with most closed for the Lunar New Year holidays. However, there was a notable increase in holiday travel activity, with Xinhua reporting the addition of 1,873 passenger trains across the railway network on Friday. Markets such as Nikkei, Hang Seng, and Shanghai were closed, while the ASX 200 saw a modest increase of 0.19%. In South Africa In South Africa, the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) closed lower, primarily dragged down by the resources sector, which fell by more than 2% due to weaker metals prices. The precious metals and mining sector saw a decrease of 2.22%, although industrials managed a modest gain, supported by solid performances from companies like Bidvest, Naspers, and Richemont. The yield on the 10-year government bond closed at 9.955%. Thank you for reading and enjoying the daily wrap up and analyses we provide to Trading View for you!
JSE:J200Short
by Timonrosso
Tough year for JSE ALSI Positions TradersIt's been a very tough year for swing traders. Go long the market drops. Go short the market rallies. Don't do anything and you save from the burn. But in the bigger scheme of things, it looks like we are in an accumulation phase. The accumulation phase is a period in which smart money (informed and experienced traders or institutional investors) is believed to be accumulating a particular asset while it is still relatively undervalued. This phase occurs before a notable uptrend or bullish move in the market. Key characteristics of the accumulation phase include: Sideways Movement: Prices move within a trading range, often forming a base or a consolidation pattern. The range represents a period of equilibrium between buying and selling forces. You can see the JSE ALSI has been in a tight range this entire year. Decreasing Volume: Volume tends to decline during the accumulation phase, indicating a decrease in overall market activity. Lower volume signals that the asset is not attracting significant attention from the broader market. There have not been huge orders on the JSE ALSI like other years. It could be because there are LESS investors buying shares and more going into derivatives and margin trading. Or because they are worried about the state of the economy with load shedding, foreign direct investments pulling out, the country being rated down or people fleeing the country. Smart Money Accumulation: Informed traders or institutional investors quietly accumulate the asset during this phase. Their accumulation is not typically evident in the overall market activity due to the relatively low volume. Now with December, we could see investors piling into trades from their bonuses, offsetting taxes, preparing for the next year or with optimism with the festive season. Transition to Markup Phase: After a sufficient accumulation, there is an expectation that the asset's price will break out of the trading range. This breakout marks the end of the accumulation phase and the beginning of the markup phase, characterized by a sustained uptrend. So, my hopes and bets are UP. I think once we break out above the range, we could see the JSE ALSI rally a good 10 -20%. But geez, we need strong catalysts to kick in. Even if it's international markets helping us run up with Dual LIsted companies or America's leading influence. WHat are your thoughts? You think we'll get our long waited for rally? Traders and investors who stay in the game will reap the rewards. Patience is a traders virtue. Impatience is the reason why traders quit. They don't FAIL - THEY QUIT. Until then trade well... T
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
JSE ALSI Rally on track to 76,185 with Interest Rate out the wayCup and Handle and Triple Bottom has formed on ALSI over the past two months. Sentiment has been turning bullish with international factors. On the one hand, America has paused interest rate hikes which is leading to a global rally. Four main reasons why a drop in Interest rates causes a market rally namely: 1. Cheaper borrowing for companies 2. Higher company profits and less cost for repaying debts 3. Better Investment Returns for investors exiting from their low interest bearing assets 4. More spending by consumers On the other hand South Africa's Interest Rate: The South African Reserve Bank kept the repo rate at 8.25% ... this means the prime lending rate of commercial banks also remains unchanged at 11.75%. So we are enjoying the rally and we are slowly weeding out of the shorts as the market is trying to choose an optimistic direction. It's been a very tough environment and those who followed strict money management rules, suffered less. But whent the market does rally or at least choose a solid direction, we will be in it for the medium to long run. Remember “MARKETS TAKE MONEY FROM THE IMPATIENT RISKY TRADERS AND GIVES IT TO THE PATIENT RISK AVERSE TRADERS” Other signs are also showing upside to come: 7>21 - Bullish Price<200MA - test My first very positive target and might be over stretched is 76,185. What do you think?
TVC:SA40Long
by Timonrosso
JSE ALSI 40 playing catchup with with AmericasNasdaq and Dow Jones have been leading the pack with the indices. And now it looks like the JSE ALSI 40 is about to catch up. It's broken above the downtrend since 1 August 2023 and is showing upside to come. During the process, it's formed an Inverse Head and Shoulders. The right shoulder is not the most attractive with the neckline, but it's the overall bullish price action that is leading it. Also we see a short term uptrend with the 7>21MA. However, the big test will be the price testing the 200MA. The RSI is also showing upside momentum. If all goes well we could see the first target at 78,847. It's important to hedge the positions accordingly and remember anything can happen. Hence the risk should be smaller than usual.
TVC:SA40Long
by Timonrosso
JSE ALSI fools us again - New target up to 74,748?Once again the imfamous Mr Market JSE has fooled us again... After the 1 year twilight zone of going no where, the price broke below and entered into a BEAR MARKET... However, it lasted literally 7 days before jumping right back into the range... It's not only broken above the downtrend line, the price is testing the support, which could form potentially a right shoulder... If this plays out, it will break above the neckline and will continue up to 74,748. I am heavily invested in longs and shorts. And the balance of finding what works in the market is a challenge but at least, we are not losing a lot of funds.... It's crucial to preserve and protect what you have during uncertainty and not to focus on making money but looking after what you have by means of diversification and hedging... This can last as long as it needs to. I'm bullish on the JSE right now.
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
AECI Setting up for a bomb to R91.73Potential Inverse C&H is forming on AECI. The price action and momentum looks downwards and it looks like we are going to see some chop before the downside. Once the handle forms and shows that price doesn't want to break above the handle, we will see panic selling sending the price to the 200 MA. 7 to cross 21 Price to go to 200MA Target R91.73 ABOUT THE COMPANY: AECI (African Explosives and Chemical Industries) is a diversified South African company with a long history and a wide range of operations. Founding Year: AECI was founded in 1896 and has a history dating back more than a century. Diverse Operations: AECI is a diversified company with operations in various sectors, including mining, water, agriculture, chemicals, and more. Chemical Manufacturing: AECI is a significant player in the chemical manufacturing industry, producing a wide range of products, including explosives, specialty chemicals, and agricultural chemicals. Mining Solutions: The company provides a range of products and services to the mining industry, including explosives, initiation systems, and technical support for safe and efficient blasting. Water and Process: AECI's Water & Process business specializes in water treatment and process chemicals, serving industries such as pulp and paper, food and beverage, and industrial water treatment. Agricultural Solutions: The Agriculture business of AECI focuses on providing solutions for crop protection, plant nutrition, and soil health to support agricultural productivity.
JSE:AFEShort
by Timonrosso
JSE ALSI 40 chosen a direction? - DOWN! Bearish Symmetrical Triangle has been in the making since 17 November 2022... However, the last few months, the JSE has just not been able to break above it's most recent declination resistance. Instead, it's for the first time, broken below the formation - showing the bears are really starting to win. How long will it last we don't know. But it looks like the JSE ALSI 40 has chosen a direction and it's down. Other indicators confirm. 200>21>7 - Bearish RSI<50 - Bounce on resistance Target 59,428
TVC:SA40Short
by Timonrosso
JSE ALSI 40 showing leading signs of downside to 60839M Formation has formed on the JSE ALSI 40. While the SP500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq have been going up this year, it strangely looks like the JSE ALSI 40 has broken it's correlation. Not only has America NOT been leading the JSE, it seems like the problems (economically and politically and socially) are showing signs for the country. Now, either we get another fakeout and the market moves back up and goes "Tricked you again" as it's done this entire year. Or this is the break down and start of major downside to come for the rest of the month. Other indicators are showing downside momentum. 21>7 Price<200 RSI<50 Target will be 60,839. What do you think? Will we get a bounce up or a crash from here?
JSE:J200Short
by Timonrosso
1
JSE ALSI Broken below 200MA first time since Nov 2022Symmetrical Triangle formed on ALSI and the darn price has just been moving within it for months on end. Any JSE short term trader is most likely struggling with the whipsaws. If one is not diversified in Forex or Indices - I don't know how they are making an income this year. Regardless, the price has broken below the triangle and below the 200MA for the first time since Nov 2022. We are seeing bearish signs continue including: 21>7 Price<200 RSI<50 Target 1 will be 60,000. WARNINGS: KNowing the ALSI it could most likely cause another fake-out (haha fooled you) trick again. And the price will go right back into the triangle. The world is showing more bearish signals but as you know things can change SO quickly with the market. Medium term I'm short until further notice.
TVC:SA40Short
by Timonrosso
JSE to hopefully break above the Vuvuzela formation T to 75,000This week I remain an optimist that we will see a higher low with the JSE. And it will soon (not sure when) break up and out of the long extended Vuvuzela formation. Once it does my first short term target will be to 75,000. Every year it seems the JSE is testing traders more and more. Some fundamental news: Someone asked about what happens with the Interest Rates staying put last week in South Africa? Here are my thoughts... In the short term it's normally a bullish sign as it will stimulate economic and GDP growth. It's cheaper for businesses to borrow money. On the other side the interest rates are still very high and in the medium to long term, this will discourage spending and will encourage savings as there is a better ROI keeping money in the bank... As traders, we react on the short term and hopefully with the interest rates on hold, it will push up buying and demand. Then we can get our rally we've anticipated for the last 7 months. I'm starting to feel like Clive Roffey, where you see the impending upside, but there are just no confirmation catalysts to boost it.
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
2
Vuvuzela Pattern for the JSE ALSI 40 target to blow up to 75000 Well, well, well, we've identified the tumultuous and monotonous pattern on the chart finally. It's known as a Broadening Triangle or what I call a Vuvuzela Formation. The price diverges instead of converges in a triangle pattern... Now this can be a continuation or a reversal pattern. It all depends on the breakout. Looking at the D&S and liquidity it looks like the JSE really wants to break above the formation and head to new highs of the year. 75,000 is a decent first target... Also with Smart Money Concepts we can see there is a Sell Side Liquidity Order Block showing how Smart Money is sweeping selling and buying into it, hence there isn't a major push down in price just yet... I'm bullish with this Vuvuzela. Now we need the JSE to blow up.
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
1
JSE ALSI 40 Vuvuzela Formation - could break up!Hi guys, this could be a concern. JSE ALSI 40 has been forming a broadening pattern (Vuvuzela) since 12 April 2023. Now with these patterns, they can break any direction... If we make a higher low, the chance of the price breaking up is higher. Then we can expect the price to finally break up and out and head to 75,000 as the first target. As this is Monday, it will set the bar to where the market will be heading soon. We need to hold onto our hats as this can go south just as quickly as it went up last week. What do you think up or down this week?
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
The JSE ALSI 40 - Boy who cried BULL again! Target 80.384The JSE ALSI 40 has been moving in this large somewhat frustrating Symmetrical Triangle since December 2022. I've been bullish with the index and have expected it to break above the apex by now. But the triangle just keeps on moving in its consolidation sideways range. Thing is, the up signs are showing. This market wants to fly up and the rest of the international markets are holding it down. But now with the breakout above the Falling Wedge with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, maybe we can get our push up finally. Other indicators confirm upside to come Price>200 - Bullish - 7 needs to cross above 21 thought RSI>50 and higher lows are being formed. Target 1 is now moved to a higher 80,384. Can we get our breakout now. Us breakout traders have been patient enough...
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
Where to NEXT with the JSE ALSI 40? I hope UP!Do you want the JSE ALSI 40 to fall where we profit from all the shorts. Do we want the JSE ALSI 40 to rise, where we can profit from the longs. I'll tell you what I want. I always want the JSE ALSI 40 to rally. I don't mind being stopped out on shorts. I don't care about the shorts anyway. And the reason is because I am optimistic with South Africa. I want the companies to do well and I want to celebrate their success rather than downfall. So, no matter what the situation is I always want the JSE ALSI to rally. Take a look at the chart now... We see a change in the pattern. Since the last higher low. We have extended the Symmetrical Triangle. So in a way, it's within the formation and the price is likely to head up... On the other hand, if it breaks below it'll be a reversal pattern and the price will likely continue down. Let's hope for the prior analysis as I'm an optimist.
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
JSE ALSI 40 Symmetrical Triangle wait for break up to 81,637Symmetrical Triangle seems to be forming on the JSE ALSI 40. This is where price constricts into a triangle that is not facing up or down. We now need the price to break above the Apex, which will send the price higher. The beauty about Symmetrical Triangles, is that they are generally continuation patterns to the prior trend. With the up flag pole before the triangle confirmed, means we will expect a break up. Price>200 RSI>50 Target 81,637
TVC:SA40Long
by Timonrosso
Afrimat showing a strong bounce up to R60.00Cup and Handle formed on Afrimat following the downtrend that's been extended since 2022. We then had a break above the Brim Level showing demand and buying was in play. MAs -Mixed RSI>50 But there are higher lows. Target R60.00 SMC: SSL - Order Block This Sell Side Liquidity order Block is most apparent BELOW the entire formation. We can see sweeping of sells over the last month, and the buying into it has cause the price to rocket. Afrimat is looking strong for upside.
JSE:AFTLong
by Timonrosso
Sasol setting itself for great upside to R339.45W Formation is forming on Sasol. We are seeing the downtrend slow down in momentum, and it looks like the price wants to break up and out of the down trend. This is a bit premature for a breakout trader, but it's still good to watch and prepare for. We have other indicators that still show downside (but potentially changing trend) 200<21<7 - Bearish RSI <50 Target R339.45 Wait for breakout first then it's full steam ahead to the upside.
JSE:SOLLong
by Timonrosso