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BTC BEARISH UPDATE TODAYThe bearish mood is perhaps understandable — the Ethereum Merge became a “sell the news” event, and along with macro triggers contributed to a fresh risk asset flight. Now, analysts are considering the chances of the downtrend staying in place at least until the Fed rate announcement passes. “BTC has chopped through the weekend, but there's always the potential for some volatility before the close The past week has seen tailwinds stack up for Bitcoin, leading to BTC price action falling in kind. BTC/USD lost over $2,000 in a single weekly candle, closing below $20,000 in what is the lowest such close since July, data from MY Youtube channel and trading view shows. Following the lowest weekly closing since July, Bitcoin (BTC) is facing yet another week of "big" macro announcements. Following days of losses in the wake of the most recent inflation data from the United States, BTC/USD has failed to recover, much like other altcoins and risk assets more broadly. The biggest cryptocurrency has yet to convert $20,000 to a solid support, and as the third week of September gets underway, there's a risk that it might do so once more. LIKE COMMENT AND SHARE FOR MORE, GOOD LUCK.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by IPatrice
FLIR, somewhat undervalued technology stock on trend line watchFLIR Systems makes high-tech imaging systems. The stock has been selling off since its last earnings report, despite the fact that earnings and guidance both beat analyst estimates. Perhaps the selloff was because the company failed to issue forward guidance, or perhaps it was because free cash flow took an 18% hit last quarter and FLIR announced a 2.5% debt issuance in July. Regardless, FLIR now looks cheap, and sentiment has been improving lately. Valuation I expect that FLIR's dividend will yield 1.9% in the next 12 months. Its PEG is about 17, so not great, but not terrible. PSG ratio is 2.72. Again, not great, but not terrible. The real case for the stock being undervalued is that it's near the bottom of its three-year valuation range in P/E, P/S, and P/D terms. Despite the decrease in free cash flow, the company has a 77/100 financial health score from S&P Global. S&P Global also rates the stock 72/100 for its valuation, meaning the stock is solidly, but not extremely, undervalued. One reason I like FLIR is its patent portfolio. Patents granted are a leading indicator of earnings growth, and over the last three years, FLIR has been granted and average of 16 patents per billion dollars of current market cap. That very respectable number puts its patents-to-market cap ratio in the same league as Intel, which ranked 4th in the nation for total patents granted in 2019. In short, FLIR is a leading innovator for its market cap size. Sentiment and Technicals Analysts have been steadily upgrading FLIR, and it currently has an 8/10 Equity Starmine Summary Score. Options traders are quite bullish on the stock, with a put/call ratio of just 0.29. The technicals on FLIR are still negative, but improved slightly today to "sell" from yesterday's "strong sell" reading on both the daily and weekly charts. I'll be watching for a bullish cross of the trend line FLIR has formed since February as my buying signal.
FLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
1
Allstate should make a bullish trend line breakAllstate is one of my top picks in terms of both value and sentiment. In terms of technicals, it's a classic potential trend line breakout play. Value After a significant selloff this year, Allstate is still trading near the bottom of its 3-year valuation range in P/E, P/S, and P/D terms. The company is financially healthy, with a 78/100 score for financial health from S&P Global. It pays a solid, but sustainable dividend; I estimate 2.37% dividend return in the next 12 months, assuming the dividend gets bumped up to 58 cents in the first quarter of next year. In the last 12 months, the dividend was only 16% of GAAP EPS, which is a very comfortable level. The PEG ratio of 2.77 is pretty good, and the PSG ratio of 0.25 is extremely good. (Admittedly, analyst coverage is a little thin, so we're not working with very many different estimates of future earnings and sales.) In fact, the only value metrics by which Allstate looks a little lackluster are its ESG score and earnings surprise history, both a little below the market average. Sentiment Sentiment on Allstate has been improving over the last month, with a large increase in the Equity Starmine Summary Score to its current rating of 9.7/10. Allstate got a hefty settlement from PG&E last month, so the news environment looks good. The put/call ratio on Allstate is bullish, but not strongly bullish, at 0.69. (A put/call ratio under 1 is bullish; a put/call ratio over 1 is bearish.) Technicals Technicals are somewhat negative for now, but given the improvement in analyst ratings, I expect that Allstate will soon make a bullish trend line cross. For a swing trade, I am setting my profit target in the 105-106 range. I will go ahead and buy ahead of the trend line cross, but another way to play this would be to wait for a confirmed cross to place a buy.
NYSE:ALLLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
In a weakened banking sector, Credit Suisse stands outI've just finished reading through Moody's analysis of Friday's Fed stress test of banks. Honestly, a lot of it was over my head. However, from what I can tell, it looks like Credit Suisse may be the best positioned of the big banks to weather this crisis. In the Fed models, CS survived with more Tier 1 capital than any other bank, beating most of them by a wide margin. CS also has little exposure to loan losses. Here's the link to the Moody's report: www.moodys.com CS looks attractively priced at 8.53 forward P/E and 0.6 PEG. Its Starmine Equity Summary Score is 9.9/10, meaning that analysts widely regard the stock as a "buy." I'm generally bearish on banks as we head into the July earnings season, but it looks like this may be a gem in the rough, a quality company that's been unduly punished along with the rest of the sector.
NYSE:CSLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
A note of caution as SPY reverse RSI flashes a sell signalOn January 2, I predicted that the SPY would rip higher because of extremely strong earnings and revenue growth forecasts for 2020. It's still true that analyst projections are high: Q1 earnings growth of 5.0% and revenue growth of 4.4%, and Q2 earnings growth of 6.6% and revenue growth of 4.9%. That compares to just 0.3% earnings growth for the entire year in 2019. However, I'd like to sound a note of caution as the SPY struggles at a resistance level: namely, that it's pretty overvalued right now. According to FactSet, "The forward 12-month P/E ratio is 18.3. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average of 16.7 and above the 10-year average of 14.9. It is also above the forward 12-month P/E ratio of 16.8 recorded at the end of the third quarter (September 30). Since the end of the third quarter (September 30), the price of the index has increased by 9.4%, while the forward 12-month EPS estimate has increased by 0.2%." The high P/E multiple isn't necessarily a dealbreaker, because securities tend to trade at a high P/E when earnings expectations are strong. However, the risk here is that the index could quickly come down from this high P/E multiple if expectations weaken or if a lot of companies start to miss the analysts' raised expectations. In my opinion, it's risky to buy the S&P 500 at this valuation. Now is a good time for value investing-- finding solid, undervalued, dividend-paying stocks and ETFs the market has ignored. Sectors worth looking at: Analysts see the most upside for 2020 in the energy sector, with 66% of companies in this sector having a buy rating. Utilities posted absurdly strong earnings last quarter, especially in the clean and renewable energy segment. This segment looks pricey, but it should continue to perform if oil and natural gas prices stay high this quarter. The utilities sector has strong execution, improving profit margins more than any other sector. Communications services companies also posted strong performance last quarter that should continue moving forward. The entertainment segment has been especially strong. Watch the monthly jobs reports to see if "leisure and hospitality" continues to be the strongest segment of the labor market. Telecommunications companies also should benefit from the 5g revolution. The financials sector is cheap right now even as it experiences an earnings boom. The low valuation reflects the recession risk to banks and the political risk to insurance companies, so buyer beware. The sector is still projected to post gains, and it might be worth buying for the dividends. The sector most likely to beat analyst expectations is consumer staples. This sector has the lowest percentage of buy ratings (39%), but it had the highest percentage of positive earnings surprises (88%) last quarter. Sectors to stay away from: The most overvalued sectors are consumer discretionary and information technology, both with forward P/E multiples over 22, so beware those sectors. Consumer discretionary is especially dangerous, with many companies having issued negative guidance last quarter. However, isolated companies in the sector are worth buying, including Foot Locker and Zumiez. Macy's may also be a buy, having nuked analyst expectations last year, and currently trading at 6.28 forward P/E. Healthcare, industrials, and materials companies also issued disproportionately negative guidance last quarter. If we get a really strong trade deal with China, however, the outlook for industrials and materials could turn positive very quickly.
SP:SPX
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
HD should be good for a post-dividend bounceHome Depot's momentum has definitely been slowing lately, and the stock dipped hard after its latest less-than-stellar earnings report. However, the stock often dips before its dividend and then bounces after. With the stock going ex-dividend today (0.63% quarterly yield), it may be time for a bounce buy. December is usually a good month for Home Depot stock, and November's strong housing and construction data favor Home Depot's earnings success in the next quarter. HD has a 7.8/10 analyst summary score, an average analyst price target of $239 per share, and more-bullish-than-usual options interest today.
NYSE:HD
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
Outlook improving for Eaton VanceEaton Vance has had some analyst upgrades recently and now sits at a 9.3/10 analyst summary score. Its valuation is rated 85/100 by S&P Global Intelligence. It has beaten analyst estimates on its last three earnings reports, and analyst forecasts of EV's earnings have been improving. Fair value on EV is now conservatively something like $52 per share. Plus, EV's 3%+ dividend yield makes it relatively safe in a market downturn. EV appears to be bouncing today.
ELong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
Beyond Meat finally looks attractiveWith Beyond Meat finally having returned to its IPO-day price range, the stock finally looks fairly valued. BYND may stay here for now, but if its earnings outlook improves then it could once again explode higher. I think this stock has a lot of upside potential in the next two years, with analysts currently forecasting huge earnings growth. The current analyst summary score is pretty bad, at 1.1/10. However, it has a "buy" rating from Zacks, which is one of the most accurate analyst firms, and a low summary score means there's a lot of opportunity for upgrades to move the stock price. I also see a fair amount of bullish divergence on the chart.
NASDAQ:BYNDLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
4
VIPS run should continue after pullback from overboughtChinese retailer VIPS has been on a massive run lately, and is now pulling back from overbought on the weekly. The stock has formed two upward trend lines, one steeper than the other. We may break the steepest trend line and bounce from the secondary one. VIPS started 2019 at a low valuation, and over the course of the year has seen a roughly 100% increase in its earnings forecast. The share price has risen accordingly, but the stock remains significantly undervalued according to S&P Global Intelligence, with a valuation rating of 86/100. VIPS has posted huge earnings beats on its last five earnings reports. The company next reports earnings on February 18, 2020. Judging from the current earnings forecast, I judge that the share price is likely to hit $30 per share by 2021. The stock has a 9.5/10 analyst summary score and fairly bullish options volume even after the huge run it's been on.
NYSE:VIPSLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
Possible bounce levels on ZumiezZumiez reported better-than-expected earnings, and as a result, analysts have been revising the earnings outlook upward. I'm targeting about $37 per share for my exit based on the current earnings forecast. Zumiez rocketed after the earnings announcement, but has been dropping since. I've identified four possible bounce levels; we're already at the first. Scale in at the support lines or watch for a trend line breach to confirm a bounce.
NASDAQ:ZUMZLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
Analysts and options traders bullish on Sandstorm GoldWith gold moving higher and the market looking bearish this week, analysts and options traders are looking bullish on Sandstorm Gold. Options traders are looking for about $8.00 per share by the end of next week, and analysts have boosted the stock's summary score from 2.2/10 to 9/10 over the last month. Sandstorm honestly looks overvalued to me, with a P/E of 112 and a forward P/E of 81, but it beat analyst expectations on its last earnings report and might beat again if gold prices go up. Short interest in Sandstorm is relatively low, and the chart looks bullish as the stock hovers near a resistance level.
SLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
J. Alexander's good for a rally to 11.69J. Alexander's dropped hard from 11.69 to 9.50 before its earnings report, but it got a huge positive surprise (200%), reporting a profit rather than a loss, and rallied back to 10.50. After a technical pullback to 10.00, I expect the stock to move higher again from here. The earnings surprise was so large that I think we'll see the stock head all the way back up to its pre-earnings volume node at 11.69. I've drawn some trend lines to watch for bullish trend line breaks. JAX has a 9/10 analyst summary score and has recently had several analyst upgrades.
JLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
PAYS entry 6.90 - 8.60Paysign has been in a decline lately, despite a series of earnings beats and really strong earnings growth. With some recent analyst upgrades, the stock is rated 9.1/10 by analysts. With several recent upgrades, sentiment seems to be improving. S&P Global Intelligence scores it 85/100 for its valuation, although both the P/E of 81.55 and the forward P/E of 43.62 look high at the current price. PAYS has some support from past volume in the 6.90 - 8.60 range and should be a decent buy anywhere in this zone. Watch the trend line for signs of a bullish reversal.
NASDAQ:PAYSLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
Harrow may bounce on lawsuit newsBack in May, a jury ruled in Harrow Health's favor in a lawsuit that Allergan filed against Harrow for intellectual property infringement. Allergan has been appealing the ruling, but today the two companies jointly filed an 8k form indicating that they had jointly dismissed all pending appeals and exchanged no money. In other words, Harrow got off scot-free and will no longer incur legal fees related to the case. This is great news, so it's surprising that the stock is down, especially when the market as a whole is up. Perhaps Harrow will get a boost if some news agencies pick up the story. In the meantime, Harrow is approaching support at about $5. I picked up a few shares at $5.25 and will look to buy more at $5. Harrow Health has a 9.4/10 Equity StarMine Summary Score and is rated undervalued (73/100) by S&P Capital IQ.
NASDAQ:HROWLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
Buy targets on MUUpon dropping to 42 and approaching oversold territory, Micron has gotten some positive catalysts. A couple analyst agencies have upgraded Micron, bringing its Equity StarMine Summary Score to a surprising 8.9/10. Also, yesterday Micron filed a Form 4 indicating that one of the directors had purchased some shares. Unlikely though it seems to me given Micron's poor earnings right now, the stock may get a short-term bounce from 40 or so. I suspect, though, that there will be opportunities to buy at a cheaper price later in October. I'd like to see 32.50 or even 28 before I'd buy. Just as a side note, I was shocked by the name on that Form 4. Patrick Byrne is a director of Micron?? This is the guy who recently got forced out as CEO of Overstock.com after his girlfriend got convicted as a Russian spy. Dude's a total loon, and I find this a little worrying for Micron.
NASDAQ:MU
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
High-risk, high-reward drug catalyst play on ASRTAssertio therapeutics is slated to get an FDA ruling on its new drug application for cosyntropin depot by October 19. If the FDA approves the drug, the stock could move up significantly. Assertio has an 8.9/10 Equity StarMine Summary Score and is rated extremely undervalued by S&P Capital IQ. Despite relatively good earnings last quarter, the stock price is down due to a stock offering after the earnings report. Assertio also has a lot of exposure to litigation or regulation around opioids, because its most successful drug is an opiate. A new drug approval could shake the stock out of its lethargy and give it a really nice boost. Short interest in the stock is reasonably high, at 15% of float, which could contribute to a short squeeze. Of course, failure to get approval would send the stock tumbling.
NASDAQ:ASRTLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
2
Lexington Property Trust a defensive growth stock for OctoberLXP blew away analyst expectations on its last earnings report, beating by 200%. It got a nice pop after earnings, then collapsed when it announced a $10 million share offering. It started to recover after it announced what it was doing with the money raised from investors: purchasing new properties to accelerate its growth. If LXP is as good a steward of the new properties as it has been so far, I'm not worried about the share offering; it should propel the company's expansion rather than dilute my shares. LXP has a 9.5/10 Equity StarMine Summary Score and is rated "undervalued" by the fundamental analysts at S&P Capital IQ. Amidst the coming "earnings recession" this quarter, real estate is expected to be one of the few sectors that outperform. The sector as a whole is overbought, but LXP is a better value than most real estate stocks, having dipped to mid-RSI channel ahead of its ex-dividend date tomorrow. LXP pays a dividend of 10 cents per share, down from 18 cents per share last fiscal year. (I actually like a lower dividend, because it gives the company more capital to reinvest.) Unlike many dividend stocks, which take a big hit after the ex-dividend date, LXP's price usually takes its hit before the dividend and then recovers after. In my opinion this is a pretty good bet to buy ahead of the dividend and hold as value/growth stock for October.
NYSE:LXPLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith