ARCH
ARC - Another leg up incomingARC is having a healthy correction after rising around 470% due to AI hype.
I will buy on confirmation of the breakout of the descending trendline for mid-term and I will do DCA if it goes down further.
Coal = Gold 3.0 - The New Paradigm Breakoutor this may be a 2B double top extension. (see Bitcoin Nov-2021 2B top, or see Gold-ounce double top from Ukraine tensions in Spring 2022)
I think that the coal new paradigm pump is a sell the news event, energy supply tensions are easing and in the USA the domestic stress of a Rail Workers Union strike will be resolved within weeks.
Strong Supply flows will dampen the heightened speculation about Coal companies going up forever (with their notably favorable P/E and P/FCF rates)
"Years ago, I recognized my kinship with all living things, and I made up my mind that I was not one bit better than the meanest on earth... While there is a lower class, I am in it, while there is a criminal element, I am of it, and while there is a soul in prison, I am not free..."
Arch Resources losing popularity. ARCH
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in green with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe
US Stock In Play: $ARCH$ARCH broken out of DTL and hovering above AVWAP.
what is interesting with this name is how it is holding its support range and the relative strength it has reflected during the mid month correction
Energy - ARCHModel has given entry signals for Arch Resources:
- Arch Resources, previously known as Arch Coal, is an American coal mining and processing company. The company mines, processes, and markets bituminous and sub-bituminous coal with low sulfur content in the United States. Arch Resources is the second-largest supplier of coal in the United States, behind Peabody Energy.
- We expect a boom in the energy and industrials sectors, due to an increase in global industrial output to meet initiatives.
- We are very excited about opportunities in the energy and commodities sectors, as we believe a macro turn is approaching in the nearest future.
- Technically appears to be rising to the top of its channel, after testing channel support with a spring.
GLHF,
DPT
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ARCH bullish set up both short- and longer-termAfter 62% Fib-retracement and break of short-term downtrend, expect at least a test of the long-term downtrend since May 2019 at 55ish. That's the short term.
Longer-term, I would expect to see 55 to be taken out, opening the way to the highs (and, if you really want to offer a stretched view, potential towards the 160 (!) level) above 100.
Yeah, right, we do not want to see the uptrend in the RSI to be taken out - that would be my stop level.
Gold and DXY - What does 94+ imply? "Look for the arch in March"Gold has been in consolidation since the summertime highs. The fundamental picture for gold is the same and strengthening. Lots of noise about the rising dollar and the 'end-of-days' for precious metals.
While there are many obvious cases for Gold fundamentals, we are often presented with the binary view (ST speculator noise) where DXY and GOLD have an inverse relationship. Instrumental correlation with gold in fact changes over time, for example since 2019 TLT and US10Y have been much more closely correlated with GOLD, but we won't dismiss the psychological impact of a rising DXY. So here is where I think we are based on past patterns.
Looking for a rising DXY in a gold bull market phase takes us back to 2010, analogous to where we are now assuming (somewhat) symmetrical bull markets. This window shows a period of initial decline into support and then strengthening along with the DXY. This 181-day window for this phase to play out can be applied to where we are now with some success. From an initial turn-up of the DXY and the simultaneous drop from highs, we bottom this first decline in early March at NOV LOW levels.
This test of NOV 30 LOWS in EARLY MARCH (1764 around the ~5th?) tests the 10yr arc support, before a similar rise of equal value brings us back to testing the summer highs and beyond. The DXY can continue to rise, which may initiate the sell-off into support before resuming the up-trend in spring into summer. I think this early March bottom is supported by the similar NOVEMBER/MARCH 2012 (Yellow) resistance tests at the same level, now flipped to support. I'm not a big believer in seasonality for gold, as much as I would say, CORN, but the NOV/MAR 1764 symmetry is noted!
One concern with this may be that 94 on the DXY (above the yellow horizon in the lower pane) is a much higher, more psychological level than was present in 2010. A rise from current levels into and through 94 is marked out in purple April 2018 window by a similar selloff and eventual resumption.
This is the most I've felt like writing here, maybe my presentation skills need to catch up with my thinking. But let's sum up by saying:
"LOOK FOR THE ARCH IN MARCH" - March 5th 1764 support, bull off double bottom to test highs in July
BONUS: This model gives an initial PT for OCT 2022 of 2648. But let's get through March first.
Zoom out, chill out. Peace.
ETH - Etherum Formed Arch & Hit Coming 300$ KRAKEN:ETHUSD
Etherum already failed to break the strongest support for it and confess that the market would allow such a powerful fall .... This week all the crypto currencies had a significant drop somewhere in 20% and Etherum was hinted and fell slightly up to the media point and now I'm pullbacking in my $ 250 zone and I believe the price will continue to be quite stable until BitCoin reaches $ 9,000 ... Ether will have hit the next not $ 300
Remember to stay and buy Ripple and bitcoin a bit and comes the sky
BTC at an important levelBITMEX:XBTUSD seems to be playing at the bottom of an arch projection from the top, being close to the middle point.
If it can hold in the next days above the 2/1 Gann line and break through the 3/1 green line and the big orange trend line this can be the start of a new upwards cycle.
WHY AUDUSD MIGHT BE A GOOD LONG-TERM SHORTALL CURRENCY PAIRS IN WHICH THE USD IS THE
DENOMINATOR HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
ARC SHAPE SINCE THE 2009 RECESSION.
AS WE CAN SEE HERE, JPYUSD, CADUSD HAVE REACHED
THEIR PREVIOUS SUPPORT AREAS. ONE CURRENCY
PAIR THAT HASNT REACHED ITS PREVIOUS LOW
IS THE AUDUSD. ALL MARKETS WORK TOGETHER,
THEREFORE I BELIEVE THIS PAIR IS LAGGING
COMPARED TO IS RELATIVES. AUDUSD COULD BE
A GOOD POTENTIAL SHORT IN THE LONG RUN
AFTER ITS CURRENT CONSOLIDATION.
