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Asx200

ASX 200 truncated fifth? Why the Australian stock market fails In my July 2019 analysis, I assumed ASX 200 was going through a Wave 3 and will go up to 8300 in a year. However, XJO failed epically, it did not even come close to the 1.618 projection at 8300, when the American stocks were strongly bullish. During the February and March 2020 corona virus panic, XJO dropped much more than Nasdaq Composite and some other American indexes. Comparing to American market, all those failures point to some underlying weakness in the Australian stock market and broad economy. Another alarming fact is that the February 2020 all time high is 7180, right below the 3.618 projection of the 1982 to 1987 Wave 1 at 7200. In Elliott's Wave theory, Wave 5 often has some fibonacci proportionate relation with Wave 1. The Australian market is hinting here, February 2020 is the top of a truncated, 'failed' wave 5, as it failed to go significantly higher than the November 2007 top of Wave 3. If we take inflation into account, 7180 in 2020 might be actually lower than 6850 in November 2007. Fundamentally, Australian stocks perform worse than their American counterparts because we have a crazy property bubble here, making many young and old Australians curb consuming and stock investing to save for mortgage deposits. My impression is that most immigrants or new Australians prefer to invest in real estate, not old fashioned shares. Australian immigration intake has been decreasing since 2017, corresponding neatly with the first wave of housing market crash. Unemployment caused by corona virus in 2020 make the rise in property prices since late 2019 look like a dead cat bounce, a Wave B. Unfortunately 2020 might be the start of a lost decade for Australia, featured with decreasing fertility, decreasing immigration, decreasing property and stock market, rising inflation, and collapsing Australian dollar. Indeed we are similar to the Japan of 1990, just awakening from decades of dreamlike growth, easy money and unrealistic confidence. In the short term, ASX 200 is likely to try to approach 6000, getting close to 10 and 200 week moving average as resistance. This short term recovery will probably not change the bleak big picture though. My bottom line is that Australian market will drop more when the American market drops, and rise less when the American market rises, so overall Australian shares are much more bearish.
ASX:XJO
by MarcusAu
2
XJO ASX200 Update - Bear Flag Pattern We have gone up 20%+ since 23 March, this is likely to be an oversold bounce or "dead cat bounce" in technical terms. Since 90% of Shops are still close, Corona Virus is still in the headlines around the world and death rates are not showing signs of slowing down. Therefore, it is very unlike that the bottom is in and we are exiting this bear market in the short term. By looking at the short term chart, we can see a BEAR FLAG pattern forming for ASX200. I am expecting lower levels and we drop toward the gap. (4700-4800)
ASX:XJOShort
by johninvest17
1
ASX XAO All Ordinaries to start an uptrend in AUGUSTASX:XAO dropped 39% from its high in Feb 2020 and has gained 15% in March 2020. With stimulus package announced earlier, Australian markets have rallied towards the month end. A clear uptrend will not be established until we have a month ( most likely AUGUST ) that closes above XAO 5400 which is the red Resistance line shown on chart. I do not see ASX close under 4400 again. Bar pattern in grey based on previous fractal / trend I can see develop in the next few months of volatility with ASX:XAO target of 6300 in March 2021 Blue vertical line in Oct 2021 is one of the fib time zones I will be watching for a likely pull back.
ASX:XAOLong
by secondavatar
3
ASX, H4 - potential inverted head and shoulders patternOn the H4 chart of the Australian stock exchange index ASX we may observe a potential inverted head and shoulders pattern. It seems that her right arm may have occur on the level at which the left arm appeared. It is therefore possible a strong level of support - 4811 points. If the horizontal neckline is broken (5355 points) then a path may open for further increases in the area of 6037 points. There may be another potential resistance level. ________ Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd. Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. 60% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
OANDA:AU200AUD
by Daniel_Kostecki
ASX 200 1st April BOOOM Look at this monthly wick it’s dying to bounce up 1st of April is the new wick all the stimulus etc,etc, #ASX200 #BTC buckle up this market has a bounce incoming Manipulated global panic cause the largest and most devastating destruction around the world and this market gonna go boom somehow 🧐 I’m somewhat dissapointed and a little saddened by the fact this literally all seems to be China controlling the world on a global economy and potentially doing it for BTC HALVING 🧐 just a theory far fetched but hey this year has been messed up enough, ❤️
ASX:ASXLong
by bennywayhard92
2
Daily Analysis on AU200 ( ASX ) by ThinkingAntsOkUse this as a guide to develop your view of the chart. Main items we can see on the Daily Chart: a) The main structure is an ascending channel b) After the price reached the Weekly resistance zone, we saw a huge sell-off on the index. c) Currently, the price is on a massive support zone d) From there we expect a pullback to the broken ascending channel e) From an Elliott Wave perspective, the movement we are expecting is a B wave (correction)
OANDA:AU200AUD
by ThinkingAntsOk
1
Why the ASX200 is going lower (March 25, 2020)The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred on a catastrophic 39% decline over 5 weeks in the ASX200 . Right now we're seeing the beginning of a bullish retracement as negative sentiments start to ease globally. But with most market crashes historically, nothing ever falls in a straight line. There are always retracements in a down market, otherwise known as dead cat bounces. This chart shows the ASX200 during the Global Financial Crisis ( GFC ) The full declines took an entire year and a half to play out 28 weeks in, the ASX200 had a 50% bullish retracement spanning 8 weeks. Be careful (protect capital) - wait for a solidified foundation before going long - don't try to catch falling knives.
ASX:XJOShort
by TomUnderwood
1
When will the Bounce happen? ASX The market looks like in complete meltdown, but for the short term the market is due for a bounce. 38% drop from peak to trough. Indicators: RSI, BFI, StochRSI overdone Though StochRSI still showing time for more downturn. So looking at a 2 week timeframe for that bounce which should be about 20%. But the weekly moving averages lets us know we are at the beginning of the fall. If we look at 2007-2009 there was an original drop of 26% that took about 5-6 months. This current drop about 1 month so 5-6 x quicker. Than we had another 46% drop that took 9-10 months.
ASX:XJO
by GlobalTrader_
My worst case scenario for ASX200 $XJO Hello investors and traders, Warren Buffett famously said, "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." I have seen this quote everywhere on social media last few days/week. Retailer investors are being so GREEDY right now and buying stocks because it is cheap...This tells me we are nowhere near the bottom. Learning from bitcoin, market bottoms when people are in depression and give up on investing because they are scared or have no money left. As mentioned last week, we need to close above the 200 MA LOW on the monthly chart in order to have a chance of a quick recovery (4885). Currently we are below this line, so let's prepare and assume we have close below this. Here is my WORST CASE scenario for ASX 200. We start the 3-9 TD sequential correction phase and head towards 2500. The catalyst for this to happen is an Australian recession or even a depression. What would you do if this is the case? What are you going to do to protect your portfolio/wealth?
ASX:XJOShort
by johninvest17
1
BUY and then BUY again - 161% FIBGood morning traders, Crude oil is getting ridiculously cheap! Whilst the global demand for oil is decreasing due to mass quarantine, this will only be short lived (1-2 months). China is pretty much back online and working again as their outbreak has tapered off. We are looking to start buying crude at the 161% FIB level roughly $23 per barrel. Keep your stops below 10.00 and hold for the foreseeable! Any thoughts or comments let us know!! The opportunity to buy crude at these levels doesn't come around that often!! DO NOT MISS OUT
FX:USOILLong
by ForexStoreau
6
ASX200 HUGE MARKET REVERSAL INCOMINGHUGEEEE TRADING OPPORTUNITY This is going to pop up for the stimulus package in Australia, I don’t particularly care about this but I am looking for an indicator for BTC and if BTC is still following traditional markets there is a huge bounce incoming Weekly chart showing a very possible upwards direction I’m guessing whenever Scott Morrison releases his beefed up stimulus this market will go straight back up to where it was I think this is like the original BTC bubble from 2017 it’s just the start all the markets are going to make for amazing trading 2020 Not advice do not use this in anyway as investment idea
ASX:ASXLong
by bennywayhard92
S&P and world markets signs of a short term bottomThe world is going crazy, countries in lockdown, flights being stopped, but at least we have people buying toilet paper from retailers to give this quarter a boost in profit numbers hey? But really this is a short term bottom, Looking at the chart here it is very hard to see further falls right now. The candle has over extended the LinReg and the Stochastic RSI has turned around, while the bottom finder has pointed out a possible bottom. I am looking for a 25% recovery to give us time to exit our stocks and crypto etc. Selling now is not a good time. Than in May and June is when we will see the real crisis. From it's peak I am looking for at least a 50% - 60% correction So I am long for about 4-6 weeks here. taking it day by day.
ULong
by GlobalTrader_
3
A Look at the Australian EconomyAustralia Consumer Confidence has slid down to a 5-year low, dropping down to 91.9 from the previous month of 95.5. Officially called the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment, it fell 3.8%, and in its March report Westpac cited the coronavirus and the effect that it has had on the financial markets as the cause of this 5-year low. It is also the second lowest level that the Index has been, since the recession of 2008 when it managed to hit 79 points. The report also stated that while consumers were rightfully worried about short term economic impacts, they were not as concerned about the longer-term economic prospects, evidence of the notion that the coronavirus epidemic would be “large but temporary”. This low confidence has also been reflected in the Australian dollar and stocks, as the AUD dropped 1.03% from the previous trading day, down to a low of 0.6492 against the greenback. It’s no surprise that investors are continuing to avoid high risk currencies such as the AUD in this volatile market, and instead place their funds into safe havens instead. The ASX, or Australian Securities Exchange, has also been on a nosedive since the 20th of February, dropping 11.5%, from above 7,000 points to 5,700, reversing all gains made in the past 2 years. This low confidence has also been reflected amongst the Australian public in such events as the now infamous toilet paper brawls, viral videos of women fighting over toilet paper in Australian supermarkets. The mass stockpiling of toilet paper has in fact become so bad that Woolworths, Australia’s largest supermarket chain, announced that they would be rationing toilet paper, and limiting the amount that people could buy down to 2. Another supermarket chain, Coles, has limited toilet paper purchase down to one per person. This certainly seems to be an overreaction given that Australia’s coronavirus crisis has been relatively contained so far compared to other countries, with only 137. But the country appears to be preparing for the worst, as the first two cases of community transmission have now been confirmed within the country, and doctors are now bracing themselves for a proper outbreak. Both cases of transmission were in the state of New South Wales. The first case was from a woman who had contracted it from her brother who had come from Iran. However the second case was the concerning one, as it came from a 53 year old health worker who had not been in contact with anyone infected or travelled to any countries with heavy infections. Australia has also now placed a ban on travellers from Italy, in addition to its existing bans for Iran, South Korea, and China. For Australian citizens or permanent residents arriving from those countries, they will have to place themselves in self-isolation for 14 days. This move comes as the situation in Italy has become drastically more dire, as the entire country is now in quarantine. It is now undoubtable that the coronavirus will cause an economic recession. And Australia’s economy will suffer a heavy blow, due to its trade connections with China. Even after a 25 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia to a record low of 0.5% and acknowledgement that it would ease monetary policy further if needed, Australia looks to be in for a rough time ahead. For daily market updates, follow us on Instagram at blackbull_markets and Twitter at @blackbullforex.
by BlackBull_Markets
1
ASX200 $XJO Are we heading for a bear market? Good Evening, investors and traders, the Asx200 $XJO went lower again due to market uncertainty with the coronavirus. Last week, I said if we breach the 50 moving average, the first level of support is around 6300-6400. The market went straight down to 6259.9 on Monday and traded sideways between 6259-6500 for a few days and eventually making a new low of 6216 at Friday's close. Next week, I am watching 5800-6100 as a very important area of support. (Currently, I do forecast a dead cat bounce from there) Furthermore, the ASX200 $XJO must close above or near the 200 MA (red line). If not, we are more likely heading for a bear market. One important thing to keep in mind is that the VIX is at a bearish high reading. This tells the mid-large fund organizations such as investment banks and hedge funds to reduce risk and exposure in their long/short portfolios. The good news is that we do have a TD 9 coming for the Vix and this signal a likely top for the short term. Therefore, like the hedge funds and investment banks, I am still only risking a small amount of money in the market. I will go big again WHEN the Vix is below 15 and price level can close above all moving averages. At the moment this price area is around 6666-6800. Glossary: VIX The S&P/ASX 200 VIX Index ( XVI ) calculates the amount of volatility expected in the market over the next 30 days. • High readings indicate uncertainty ( bearish ) 20-30 • Normal readings suggest a slight bullish bias 15-20 • Low readings indicate low volatility ( bullish ) and strong investor confidence. <14.99 Bear market A bear market is a condition in which securities prices fall 20% or more from recent highs amid widespread pessimism and negative investor sentiment.
ASX:XJOShort
by johninvest17
2