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Aussiedollar

AUD/ USD Okay, here is the Aussie/ Dollar (AUD/ USD). im trying something differnt nothing too out of the ordinary, but i have been researching the COT Report and I am able to "Swing" a few positions off the Hourly Analysis. So, here off the same structure we have three patterns. 1 the smallest one is a regular gartley now we do have the potential for a deep gartley with the 886 up near the Bat pattern thats the white outline one. which is Number 2. Number 3 is the Alternate Bat pattern which is outlined in red. I dont feel confident in the Alternate bat pattern and feel better about the Gartley Pattern. Now, back to the COT on The AUD dollar the report is as follows ( i pulled this info off tradingster.com): -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Aussie Dollar COT Legacy Report (pulled from Tradingster.com) Non-Commercial Commercial Total Non. -ortable Long Short Spreads Long Short Long Short Long Short 25,301 64,859 558 91,226 39,980 117,085 105,397 15,712 27,400 Changes (Change In Open Interest: +3,533 ) +1,582 +5,715 -369. +1,540 +257 +2,753 +5,603 +780 -2,070 (CONTRACTS OF AUD 100,000) Open Interest: 132,797 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- United States Dollar Index COT Legacy Report: (pulled from tradingster.com) Non-Commercial Commercial Total Non-Reportable Long Short Spreads Long Short Long Short Long Short 24,515 7,218 1,090 2,851 21,258 28,456 29,566 3,021 1,911 Changes (Change In Open Interest: +354 ) +559 -288 +26 +213 +229 +798 -33 -444 +387 (U.S. DOLLAR INDEX X $1000) Open Interest: 31,477 So From what i have been reading we want to pay attention to the Non-Comercial reporting as they are the hedge funds... the commercial report are the large cooperations and banks that are hedging their risk which is why theyre on the direct opposite side of the commercial side. so with that being said there is a chang section of the report too. So, as we can see in the Changes section most of the hedge funds are switching their bias to the short side. Now, this is not surprising as we have been trading in a range for the past few weeks and we are nearing the top of the range to go back down. When you look at the total coloum there are more traders loading up on the short side than the long side... so what i think is that price will rise a little to the top of the range start wicking as more and more large players start entering the market and the floor will give out. This is kinda backed up by the dollar index COT. we have the bug hedge funds loading up on the buy side of the dollar not only was the ratio of long/ shorts 3:1 we had more funds add to the buy side AND some people pulled from their short holdngs! So, again this suggests to me again PA will rise a bit because the total of shorts out weighs the longs in the total but as orders get filled i see PA reversing in the other direction. So, on this pair expect PA to enter the PRZ of one of these three patterns Looking at the 886 Level and then giving way to seller pressure. Let me remind you guys this is my very first week trying to incoperate the COT in my analysis. All this information is stuff i pulled from google and the website tradingster.com i was also inspired to try and incoperate the COT in my analysis by @DaweFXHunter (www.tradingview.com) im not part of his teachings or classes i just like the idea of trading in the same direction of the big players ... i could be way off, but hey its an attempt to put more emphasis on patterns going in the same direction as the Big Players in this industry... #RISKFREEORBUST OANDA:AUDUSD
Short
by ARegularGuy
AUDUSD: breaking out of ascending wedgeAUDUSD is breaking out of ascending wedge, which might indicate a correction move downside and a risk-on scenario. Aussie is currently trading around 17% higher since march lows and pretty much correlated with bullish sentiment in equity market. The first support level can be found around 0.6250-06270 price, which is between 0.23-0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. After breaking that zone, the price can continue going lower to around 0.6040 level. Fundamentally, I still think that we are going to see lower level in equities (or at least a correction move lower), thus lower price in AUDUSD as well. Joining bears from around 0.64700 price with S/L above 0.66000 and T/P around 0.60400 provides decent R/R. // Feel free to share your opinion/position via comment and follow me to stay updated + support my work by hitting like.)
Short
by GIgor_021
GBPAUD POSSIBLE SCENARIO EXPLAINED|additional chart in the post.The pair has returned into the 4 year upward channel and is now trading inside a big horizontal structure. It is possible that it will bounce back from the level and follow the direction outlined by the black lines on the chart, hitting the resistance of the upward channel again, before reaching the support of it which will by that time comfortably rest inside the horizontal structure. That scenario is supported by the fact that the RSI indicates the pair is significantly oversold and therefore some correction up is inevitable. However, if zoomed out(chart below), it can be seen that the price has violated a local support level, and did not show any strength which begs a question of whether there are any buyers left at this levels. If the lack of buyers assumption is correct, then the pair is most likely to keep falling within the downward channel to the intersection of the diagonal upward channel support line and the horizontal support level. Guys, every like matters, so like and subscribe to help the channel. I greatly appreciate every effort. That also helps you not to miss the updates. Thank you all, and wish you the best of luck in your trading!
Long
by ProSignalsFx
3
AUSSIE DOLLAR FOR A SHORT? AUDUSDFOREXCOM:AUDUSD Note: (MARKET IS REACTIVE AND NOT PREDICIVE) From a daily perpective, price has clearly rejected the resistance zone and has created a historical double top. Price is also at a support zone and we can see a break in support Since market price moves in waves, the price can break the support and retest the broken support before making a move to the target of 0.61764 (PLEASE HIT THE LIKE BUTTON AND COMMENT WHAT YOU HAVE IN MIND TO SUPPORT ) With this 200 pips can be caught. Also we see there are two uptrend lines which acts as a support, one has been broken, with a few candles the other will be broken. If this happens we can confirm with the strategy used to initiate a short position Entries will be initiated using one hour or four hour timeframe. (PLEASE HIT THE LIKE BUTTON AND COMMENT WHAT YOU HAVE IN MIND TO SUPPORT )
Short
by Kelachi
EURAUD POTENTIAL SHORT| MULTI TIMEFRAME ANALYSISAs I have already mentioned, in my previous analysis of the pair, the link to which you can find below, there was a potential for returning into the massive diagonal channel, which can be seen on the daily chart attached. The return into the channel was confirmed by the daily candle closing inside the channel, below the resistance area, which gives us a short opportunity. Current 1.6846 level, is not a good one to go short in terms of risk reward, for I expect the pair to find support in the middle of the channel, at around the take2 area. The support line is shown in the blue. There is also a horizontal structure at this level. So, I will be waiting for the pair to bounce back, from a small horizontal support it has found. To the levels that are indicated by the arrows. You might choose to enter the short piecemeal, adding to the position as the pair goes higher. This way you will get a good average price. The first take is 1:1 risk reward, as always. The second take level I've discussed above already. I will be monitoring the price action closely. On a side note, one might actually go long now, and ride the bounce up, to the short levels, but I will not be doing that. Guys, please, like and subscribe, to support the channel. It really helps me when you do that, and also makes sure that more people see the idea. I really appreciate the effort! Wish you all luck in your trading!
Short
by ProSignalsFx
1
AUDUSD | Preparing to melt? This pair has formed a double top and started to drop aggressively with big bearish candles. It has also broken a ascending trendline and currently doing a retest. Additionally, it did also break a Support level and currently is retesting it as a Resistance level. If AUDUSD fails to break back above, then we can expect further downside movement. Watch the pair closely and only sell when you see a clear bearish candle close below the current resistance level. Fundamentals to look out for during the week. 1) USD CPI m/m (Tue) 2) USD Core CPI m/m (Tue) 3) AUD Employment Change (Thu) 4) AUD Unemployment Rate (Thu) 5) USD Core Retail Sales m/m (Fri) 6) USD Retail Sales m/m (Fri) Risk ONLY: 2-3% Good Luck
Short
by UncleBullFX
1
AUD/ USD Just to show the community, that if you truly grasp the concepts outlined in scott carneys books you can draw the patterns before the software picks them up. i this pattern drew last week on AUD/ USD, and overnight (US TIME) the pattern drew and completed and started to move. this is not the first time i have drawn a pattern before the HPC Software. It just shows me that that when it comes to understanding the principles of the patterns I have it down. i hope everyone trades well. This commodity currency is one of my favorite pairs to trade along with the vast majority of the majors. #RiskFreeOrBust OANDA:AUDUSD
Short
by ARegularGuy
AUD/ USD AUDUSD here we have a great situation on our hands for next week. We have a deep Gartley, which is a new pattern all together, and a dirty bat pattern. We have a trading oppritunity either way PA wants to go. im going to discuss the the two patterns next. the deep gartley is a little gem that scott carney has not really talked about pubilicly but in his 3rd volume of the Harmonic Trading series. its the traditional gartley but with an 886 xa leg. now this is only used if the abcd pattern completes past the 886. now the completion point of the pattern is determined by the ABC EXTENSION and NOT the recipocal measurement. now on to the "dirty" patterns. i prefer to go from wick to wick on my measurements my xa points are strictly wick to wick and this does not waiver. now what does have a little room for movement is the "B" and "C" points. if the B and/ or C point wick wicks below the desired fibo ratio but closes at or slightly above/below , usually within 1-3 pips ill count the point valid. if not ill stop measureing. the reason for this is becasue i have found that the atterns are still successful after the pattern completes when the wicks violate the ratio but PA respects it. i call it dirty becasue its not a nice clean wick to wick pattern through and through. #RiskFreeOrBust OANDA:AUDUSD
Short
by ARegularGuy
1