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Balanceoftrade

AUDCAD: Bearish Divergence at Last Week's HighThis is a pair I'v been looking to short again for awhile now due to the trend and now i'v got some Bearish Divergence to justify entering and the nice extra bonus from the news of the US Trade Deficit Increasing. I think this will stir up more demand for the CAD against alot of other Currencies but more particularly against the AUD. This may also put downwards pressure on the price of US Oil but thats for an entirely different trade.
Short
by RizeSenpai
1
Detail of US net imports, and why the situation is so dramaticThere is a clear picture here. The only (tiny) saving grace the US has is the "on site" stuff that cannot be delocalized, or hardly, all these basic industrial goods, as well as their agri mostly grains. The US imports 3 times as much consumer goods and auto parts as they export. It's cheaper to get chinese slaves to build goods in huge factories than pay these expensive unionised americans. The US , and even the whole west to a smaller extant, became totally reliant on foreign manufacturing. The US are heavily dependent on the rest of the world for their consumption of pharmaceuticals, auto parts, electronics in general, all sorts of household items like clothes and beds and microwaves and so on, cheap TV made in China etc. This became particularly visible during the covid crisis of 2020 where the US went "wait we need stuff, where is it?", sorry it's in India, I remember Morocco made big stacks of Hydroxychloroquine meanwhile the west could not get any, so then the whole west started a big conspiracy theory about every single drug that is cheap to make - therefore is made in foreign nations (revenues < minimum wages ==> impossible for entrepreneurs to produce locally), the propaganda branch of the west starting spreading messages on how drugs that billions (with a B) used for a century were very dangerous, no idea how anyone bought that. "Nearly 80% of drug ingredients used in the United States originate overseas, but FDA has struggled to oversee the manufacturers’ factories, raising red flags about safety. It caused drug shortages and suspension of safety protocols of the medicines manufactured overseas - the majority in China and India." Am I being a negative perma bear now? This was "speculation" before 2020 (not really guesswork, it's literally in the numbers but whatever nobel prize economists and keynisians are too dumb to understand). But now in 2021 it REALLY happened. We experienced it for real, it's not theory anymore. To be clear: The drug shortage during the covid pandemic was VERY SMALL. It's not 1% of what is about to hit. The west, mostly the US, and the least Germany, have no productive ability. When India & China stop sending humanitarian aid to them, they will turn into a desert like Venezuela, it's back to prehistory, they have the ability to build nothing at all. Elected officials are not the ones running the economy, entrepreneurs are, businessmen, and these guys conduct their business in Asia. There is no simple switch that they can turn on and off. Rebuilding the country if all goes right would normally take at least a good decade or two (maybe I'm too optimistic), but surely a while longer with the population being so old. If you are curious what consumer goods the US is a net exporter of, here is the list: To compete with Chinese cheap goods Germany (and a little bit France & the UK) came up with quality standards, the ISO 9000/9001 family which was first created by the US and the UK I know but Germany is what really went in that direction. So they retain some industrial capabilities (in particular an impressive car industry, France not doing too bad in that area too, Japan too and motorcycles also). Germany, France, Japan... They still build stuff, but what they build is more expensive so it has to be "high quality". But the US, being overly woke-liberal-capitalist-shorttermist completely gave up. They are more vulnerable than a baby in a pitbull fighting arena. Not sure what their plan is? Maybe take in millions of cheap migrants to use as workers once shtf? What will they do? Build a wall to keep them in? Lol that's not beyond the realm of possibilities. That's all grim but what about solutions? How to rebuild? Obstacles to rebuilding: You have to find capital (and as we know voters will demand a government with high taxes to "help them out", shooting themselves in the leg). Business owners & builders have to be willing to take risks when they are getting squeezed by social politicians & probably more regulations. Businessmen/women have to build factories, this does not happen by itself, need construction materials and so on. Entrepreneurs need to find skilled workers (americans have not worked in factories for 50 years) willing to work (so not on social aid). A country requires its entrepreneurs to not simply bail out because why bother? After decades of anti-nationalist propaganda. Good luck! Once the snowball of rebuilding gets going it's GG, it will keep growing, but when everything collapses it's just so hard to get the snowball initially going. Look at Venezuela and Argentina. Not only elites & go-getters left, but their "shoot myself in the foot" population is working hard to make sure business creation is next to impossible. And they've been in a mess for 10-20 years, with no light at the end of the tunnel. In modern days, high performance dynamic people will not "hold the bag" of a dying nation with a population hostile to business and in denial, lmao imagine arguing for months with morons in denial when you can just buy a plane ticket to a beach somewhere and GG. Almost no one has a nationalist sentiment anymore, so the people that build the economy will bail out of failing nations. And they only come back when a nation works hard to attract them (enough for it to be worth taking the risk of moving), with low taxes and low regulations and so on. It's really simple and straightforward... So to sum up, the US is doomed. Wasteland of nothing being done soon. And it's not worth fighting for, let them sort their mess. Solutions? East Europe, Australia, Caucasus countries, and others, let you in if you got money in the pocket (to invest in their country of course) and plans. Georgia Citizenship by Investment: Become a Turkish citizen within just six months with a real estate investment, bank deposit, or new business. Turkey with their empire history have it implanted in them to take people in. And actually they have the fastest growing economy of OECD countries. And much better demographics. Turkey has not the best eco freedom, but better than France. Georgia better than all. As the economies keep growing, and less of their entrepreneurs and workers leave + new ones come in, it can snowball and they can easily be in a better place than the US. All countries that went through troubles are fighting for wealth & job creators in this very high sedentary & risk aversion era. Go-getters still overvalue the west. Not much longer. Istanbul is 6 times as bif as NYC, and got twice the population, don't worry there is plenty to do. Remember, when Rome fell, the population of Istanbul went to the moon. Of course die hard atheists, LGBTS and so on are not welcome. Moving to a country, no matter which one, is a big decision not to be made overnight. Also if some NA states split from the rest it might get interesting, Texas in particular is trying to be more pro business. Big beautiful country average size (30m pop 700k km² bigger than France, plenty of space for new arrivals) with natural ressources etc. Their GDP grew 71% more than the US between 1997 and 2016 and manufacturing output 130% more. They're getting overrun with californians and illegals though (risk). Sorry Americans stuff does not magically fall off the sky after the welfare state makes an incantation, it has to be harvested from the ground and then manufactured. If no one builds anything in the country, and foreign countries that build stuff stop sending it for free, there won't be anything in the country. Enjoy no toilet paper, no computers, no phones, no wine, no car parts, no drugs, no televisions, no shoes, no shirts, no veggies, no nothing. All that will be left will be sugar, wheat, soybeans, corn, and meat which the US does produce in large quantities. In other words sodas, high fructose corn syrup, and burgers (wheat + meat). Yay! Ah an a final word, all this collapse is considering they do not repay their debt (both official federal debt and us dollars printed to import). If they have to export what they owe the hit will be even bigger (what little drugs they produce will have to be exported while seniors die being denied treatment), but I don't see this happening, or maybe very little of it.
TVC:DJI
by MrRenev
4