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Bankcrisis

💾 SPX Closes On Strong Bullish Bias +Bitcoin & Bank CrisisThis is the SPX on the weekly timeframe: It has been printing higher lows since October 2022. It has been going up and it is pushing/challenging resistance. This week closes green with a long lower wick. The RSI is really strong. More than 7 months of consolidation. The next target is set at 4,237 on the daily timeframe or the August 2022 peak/high. The SPX & Bitcoin A higher low was hit 13-March together with Bitcoin and the rest of the Cryptocurrency market. After this higher low, we are seeing the resumption of the bullish move that started January 2023. While Bitcoin bottomed in November 2022 the SPX bottomed October 2022. The orthodox end of the bear market for Bitcoin happened June 2022 so we can still say that Bitcoin is moving ahead of the stock market. Currently Bitcoin is already trading above its August 2022 high. The SPX, Cryptocurrency & The Banking Crisis It will be interesting to see how the SPX will behave once the banking crisis is resumed in June... Maybe this bullish chart shows the last hurray? The SPX is bullish now but watch out for mid-June when the banks start crashing again, we will see how this affects the conventional markets but we know that Cryptocurrency will benefit based on past history. Namaste.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MasterAnanda
1
PacWest Bancorp | PACWPacWest Bancorp sinks 56% in after hours following news the bank is exploring a sale but Powell said the US banking sector is strong! PacWest Bank, confirmed Thursday that it is exploring “all strategic options” after its share price was cut in half in after-hours trading following a Bloomberg report that it was considering a sale. “Exploring strategic options” is Wall Street lingo for “please help.” The last bank to announce it was exploring strategic options was First Republic Bank. That regional bank failed Monday, and JPMorgan purchased most of its assets. “In accordance with normal practices the company and its board of directors continuously review strategic options,” PacWest said in a statement. “Recently, the company has been approached by several potential partners and investors, discussions are ongoing. The company will continue to evaluate all options to maximize shareholder value.” The regional bank is assessing options, including a possible sale, and bringing in advisors to evaluate longer-term plans for the business,Piper Sandler and Stephens are the two firms advising PacWest, the person said. The shares of many West Coast regional banks have been hit particularly hard since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March, in part because of concerns that their customer bases are similar. This week, First Republic Bank was seized by regulators and sold to JPMorgan Chase. The Los Angeles based PacWest has a roughly $750 million market cap, and is down by 72% this year. On Wednesday, PacWest shares declined nearly 2% during the regular session, and notched their fifth straight losing day. Other regional banks declined in extended trading following the report, with the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF shedding 5.3%. Shares of Western Alliance Bancorp dropped 27%, while Comerica slid 10%. KeyCorp shares fell 7%. PacWest reported that total deposits declined more than $5 billion in the first quarter to $28.2 billion as of March 31. However, the company said that it saw a net gain of $1.1 billion in deposits from March 20 until quarter end. PacWest also said that deposits grew by another $700 million from March 31 through April 24. As with many other US regional banks, the value of PacWest’s loans and bond holdings has crumbled as interest rates have surged. Customers yanked their deposits in March out of fear that the bank could fail and they’d be left holding the bag. Although the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation insures accounts holding up to $250,000, many businesses have a lot more money in their accounts, much of which is uninsured. that left the bank and its competitors with a potential problem: If customers kept drawing down their accounts, the bank may run out of cash to pay them.that made investors nervous Michael Burry : Lawrence, I found something really interesting Lawrence Fields : Great, Michael. Whenever you find something interesting, we all tend to make money. What stock are you valuing? Burry : I want to SHORT the whole Banking system ! Whos ready for the BIG SHORT 2 ?
PShort
by moonypto
4
PacWest Bancorp Collapse - 90% fall in priceTried to analyse PACW stock price as per Fib ratio and daily average price levels. Expecting $5.34 as opening price on Monday, new fall is also expected as price seems to be at the golden level and can fall below $2. This will be the 4th crash after SVB or signature banks, etc. Friday price took a reversal but seems there's lot of pressure on the sell side, also being the psychological range of the price broken earlier might have adverse effect on sell side. Let's wait and watch if this actually happens or if government actually takes some measurements to cover the fall, in any terms we will learn something new...
PShort
by Ethical_Bear
USD/JPY - Yen surges ahead of Fed rate decisionThe Japanese yen continues to show strong volatility, which started on Friday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 135.14, down 1.04% on the day. The Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision later today, and the markets are confident that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points, which would bring the benchmark rate to 5.25%. The markets have priced in a 25-bp hike at 87%, down slightly from the 93% probability earlier in the week.  Investors are expecting today's increase to be a "one and done" which will wrap up the current rate-tightening cycle. The economy is cooling and inflation is easing, which has raised expectations that the Fed will embark on an extended pause and possibly cut rates before the end of the year. One could make the argument that given this economic landscape, the Fed might be better off by pausing rates at today's meeting, but it appears that Jerome Powell is determined to get the inflation genie back in the bottle as soon as possible. Inflation has eased considerably but is still running at a 5% clip, more than double the 2% target. Another factor for the Fed to consider is the re-emergence of the banking sector crisis. First Republic Bank, whose collapse was the biggest bank failure since the GFC in 2008, has had its assets acquired by JP Morgan. That was followed by a plunge in shares of two US regional banks, and there are concerns that another hike today will put even more pressure on the troubled banking sector. The crisis has dampened risk sentiment and the safe-haven yen has been a big winner with sharp gains today. The tightening in credit conditions since the bank crisis began in March is estimated to be the equivalent of a rate hike of between 25 and 50 basis points. That is unlikely to deter the Fed from the expected hike today, but it could be an important factor in future rate policy. USD/JPY is testing support at 135.30. Next, there is support at 1.3450 There is resistance at 137.57 and 138.37
by OANDA
AUD/USD - Australian dollar jumps on sizzling jobs reportAustralia posted a blowout employment report today, giving the Australian dollar a strong boost. The economy created 53,000 new jobs in March, after a downwardly revised 63,600 a month earlier. This crushed the estimate of 20,000 and especially impressed as full-time employment increased by 72,000 (part-time decreased by 19,200). Unemployment was unchanged at 3.5%, below the forecast of 3.6%. What can we expect from the RBA? The central bank paused in March for the first time in the current rate-tightening cycle and Governor Lowe made clear that another pause was data-dependent. The next meeting is on May 2nd and the odds of a pause have eased to 78%, compared to 94% before the employment release. Australia releases the March inflation report less than a week prior to the meeting, and if inflation is higher than expected, the RBA will have to consider a 25-basis point increase in order to cool down the job market and inflation. The recent bank crisis, which roiled the global financial markets, appears to have eased. Still, the extent of the fallout of the collapse of four US banks and Credit Suisse is not yet clear, and central banks need to give consideration to the crisis in mind as they determine their rate path. RBA Deputy Governor Bullock addressed this issue on Wednesday, saying the RBA had considered a pause well before the bank crisis, and the bank decided on the non-move in order to protect job gains and to take into account lags in rate policy. Bullock maintained that there were no signs that the bank crisis had caused a tightening in financial conditions in Australia. There is resistance at 0.6897 and 0.6791 AUD/USD tested support below 0.6700 earlier today. The next support level is 0.6608
by OANDA
Bank outflow vs Money Market Fund inflowThe bank deposit outflow started since the Fed tightening cycle from March last year until now but got triggered more after the banking crisis a couple of weeks ago. Most of the deposit outflow ended up in the Money market fund assets, of which 80% are US T-bills, cash, or repos collateralized by government securities. This flee-to-safety trend triggered a buy in those government securities and pushed T-yields back in the last couple of weeks. Suppose this deposit-drain trend continues as the Fed keeps focusing on inflation and raising the terminal rate above 5% and keeps it till the year's end. In that case, there are risks for small and medium-sized banks that they will later have to correct their mistakes by aggressively easing the rate. However, in the short term, this downward repricing for treasury yields may continue for a while as long as the deposit-drain trend stops, and it supports gold for the time being, but I don't think this will last for long and Gold is going to correct itself till the end of the year. 
TVC:DXY
by DatTong
What to watch in Q21. Any more bank failure? Bank crisis stabilized after UBS takeover Credit Suisse and First Republic Bank had been injected deposit to restore confidence. We can’t rule out any bank failure in Q2, especially the collapse of Lehman Brother was after the rescue of Bear Stearns. Having said that, the material different between now and the global financial crisis is the asset quality, that the subprime loan is basically at default while the long-term treasury and MBS many banks are holding now can recoup the floating loss if they can be held until maturity. Situation will improve with time. The drop of treasury yield because of risk aversion is also a self-cure mechanism that reduce the floating loss, and lower depositor’s incentive to move money out from banking system. Therefore, the level of Treasure yield is an important factor to determine whether a bank run might occur again, since higher yield means bigger deposit outflow to seek better yield return and a bigger loss of bank asset. The resurge of yield will worsen the sentiment and dampen confidence. Another good indictor is the size of emergency funding facilitates that Fed is providing to banks. If there is a sudden increase on the size, this could imply there might be another bank in trouble. 2. How lending be impacted after the bank crisis? Although Fed set the policy rate, it is the Bank to lend money in a rate they desire to the business and individual. In order to improve and avoid further deterioration of asset quality, Bank might take a more conversative approach in lending. The outflow of deposit also reduced Bank’s ability and willingness to lend. Since FDIC is asking Banks to pay the bill for saving SVC and Signature Bank, together with US government is seeking a tighter regulation for banking sector and many bank need to increase deposit rate to keep deposit, higher capital/operating cost might make Bank more selective and ask for higher lending rate to compensate the cost, that is not good for the whole economy. 3. Inflation trend? Even OPEC+ surprised the market by cutting production that boost price, Energy should still strongly pressure headline inflation downward in Q2, especially on a YOY basis. NYMEX WTI crude oil above $100 most of the time in Q2 2022 and reached $123. Compare to current energy price, there will be an obvious negative impact in headline inflation. The delayed effect of lower property price and rent should also drive the inflation lower. We have seen some signs of lower service inflation, and if banking crisis harm business confidence, we might see a less tight employment market and a less wages growth. Despite OPEC+ action might make thing a little bit complicated, we might still see some decent drop in inflation in Q2. 4. Fed to end hiking cycle after May’s meeting? May could be the last hike in this cycle. As mentioned, the inflation is cooling down and bank crisis will hurt the economy. Fed will also avoid hiking rate too much that will drive the Treasury yield up that might refuel the bank crisis. February Core PCE is trending lower, so as long as inflation doesn’t accelerate, a full stop of hiking cycle after May’s meeting will be a reasonable bet. 5. Recession possibility? Inverted yield curve and ISM survey pointed to recession. Q2 could be the turning point of economy growth and we might see some slowdown. Recession has become base case scenario to many investors and they will allocate their asset and conduct trading strategy accordingly. If inflation under control and GDP growth, probably in Q3, recorded a deeper-than-expected negative growth, Fed might start easing by the end of this year. 6. End of War? Russia-Ukraine war could enter the decisive phase in Q2 when Ukraine could launch the counter attack in Spring. It is very hard to predict the outcome but assuming Russia lost the war, the geopolitical ecosystem might be rewritten as well as the regime. How ally of Russia react is also highly unpredictable. With interest rate hike cycle coming to the end, there might be more rooms for Treasury yield to go lower. This will benefit growth stock so Nasdaq might outperform Dow again, adding to the gap built in Q1. Recession fears is not friendly to most of the commodities (except gold), and any big change on War might mean a lot to many cyclical commodities such as oil, natural gas, nickel and more. Good Luck and Good Trading in Q2. Disclaimers Above information are for illustration only and there is no guarantee on the accuracy of the information. They should not be treated as investment recommendations or advices. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com gopro/
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by FOTrading
1
GBP/USD - Will BoE's Bailey shake up the British pound?The British pound is trading quietly on Monday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 122.49, up 0.15%. The pound has looked sharp of late, and last it touched a high of 1.2343, its highest level since late January. In the UK, there are no tier-1 releases this week, but that doesn't mean it will be a quiet week for the pound. Investors will be listening closely as BoE Governor Bailey speaks at public engagements today and on Tuesday. The latter should be especially interesting, as Bailey will testify before the Treasury Select Committee about the Silicon Valley collapse. Bailey to testify on SVB collapse Bailey has sounded surprisingly optimistic, given that inflation remains in double digits despite the BoE raising rates 11 consecutive times. After the 25-bp rate hike earlier this month, Bailey said that he expected inflation to fall "quite rapidly" in the next few months. On Friday, Bailey said that the prospects for growth were better and there was a "pretty strong likelihood" that the country would avoid a recession this year. I'm not at all sure that lawmakers share the Governor's optimism, and they will likely grill Bailey on the Bank's rate policy, which has failed to reign in high inflation. Sticky inflation is not the only headache that Bailey needs to deal with. The banking crisis has caused stress in the financial markets, and investors remain concerned about the stability of the banking sector. Authorities in Switzerland and the US have acted quickly and decisively, which has helped calm down the markets. President Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen have said that the banking system is safe, and on Friday, the Financial Stability Oversight Council, a group of financial regulators, said that the US banking system remains "sound and resilient". The stresses on the banking system are being closely watched by central banks, which are fearful of the contagion spreading as well as a credit crunch, which could slow economic growth. ECB President Lagarde said last week that the bank crisis could help lower inflation, and UK lawmakers might ask Bailey if the crisis could dampen inflation in the UK. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2248. The next resistance line is 1.2341 There is support at 1.2152 and 1.2071
by OANDA
KBE: S&P500 / BANK RUNS / RSI / MACD / DIVERGENCE / BANK CRISIS DESCRIPTION: The chart above shows a relationship between KBE & SPX which is important for the current ongoing banking issues. KBE is a BANK ETF that reflects the overall performance of the banking sector in the United States. At the moment there is a major discrepancy between KBE & SPX value. Normally there is a consistent relationship between the banking sector performance and SPX value but one will have to give in eventually. POINTS: 1. Deviation is 6.25 Point difference & represent crucial points of control for price action. 2. Vertical Orange Lines represent peak price action for S&P 500 & KBE before correction. 3. AVERAGE CORRECTION OF 12% ON KBE DURING BEAR MARKET. RSI: Overextended from RSI AVERAGE banking sector can see some pullback in the coming days. MACD: Currently in EXTREMELY OVERSOLD TERRITORY on MACD FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com AMEX:KBE SP:SPX
AMEX:KBEShort
by DGSTBROKERACC
Gold:A correction before 2100?Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring XAUUSD for a buying opportunity around 1955 zone. fundamentally the market is expecting Fed to pivot in the next Quarter which is considered as bullish for Gold and Stocks in the long term. and considering also the Balance sheet that got more liquidity injected. we can also mention that the market is considering Gold as a safe haven due the bank crisis. Technically we have noticed that Gold is in a phase of correction that approaches the uptrend around 1955 Support zone so i will keep an eye on the price action over there. for my target i'm setting Monthly high. Feel free to ask any question in the comment section. Trade safe, Joe.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JoeChampion
18
The Tremendous Safe Haven.Bitcoin will take 2017 with storm. The fundamentals is definitely there, and we have a perfect cup & handle in the making. Final Target - 11,000 CNY. Fundamentals: Europe Big political and economic uncertantity in Europe after events like Brexit and the Italian referendum. There's a populist anti-establishment wave going on in Europe and that's really bad for the EU (Positive for Bitcoin though). Italy might see the 5 star movement in office after Renzi's defeat. But more important, France is holding election next year and the far right candidate Marine Le Pen is at 40% today. Given the trend that's going on in Europe, there is a big possibility of a Le Pen victory. Banking Sector We are seeing weak banks all around and a bank crisis in the near future is not out of the question. A little while ago we saw Deutsche Bank struggle, and though it's going better right now for the bank, the future may not. Right now Dei Paschi (biggest Italian bank) is in the spotlight. They will likely need a bail-out. If not, and the bank collapses, it would drag others with it down the drain. Goverments will keep doing what they can to rescue their banks from going under, but remember, one collaps could trigger the "rest". There may come a domino effect and boom we have a bank crisis on our hands. Sitting in Bitcoin sounds pretty good in the case of these events, compared to fiat, right? Donald Trump Big money is welcoming a Trump presidency with an open heart (well, for now atleast). We are seeing ATH's all around and a bullish perspective on the US economy with Trump as president. But we dont' buy it, not for a single second. Donald Trump is a terrible businessman. He may be good at making a profit when he takes advantage of the laws and screws everybody over and some may call that a good businessman, but those business tactics will be terrible for the US economy. And though big money is welcoming him, we believe most are afraid and the ATH's we are seeing is just for the smart money to exit. Remember this? blogs.wsj.com Trump presidency is also bullish for Bitcoin because Trump himself should have a positive view on the currency. You would atleast think so even though he has never expresses his opinion on the matter. That's the big things, but overall there is a significant amount of positive fundamentals for Bitcoin . To give a few more: Bitcoin Is Legal says Russion Federal Tax Service There has been big uncertantity surrounding Bitcoin in Russia. Now the goverment has finally taken a position and it's a positive one. India Rupee Restriction Gives Bitcoin a Boost. India may be the next reason for a BTC pump. Narendra is taking the 500 & 1000 bills out of the economy and making people in India to flock towards Bitcoin. We are seeing huge premiums on India's exchanges. Bitcoin Demand Seen Rise as Chine Restricts Gold-Importation. China is now trying even harder to keep the capital inside it's borders. Restricting the chinese from gold will drive more people to Bitcoin as an alternative. Mostly gone unoticed, but we see this as a huge bullish signal. Why arent Bitcoin Buisnesses Talking Segwit? Segwit is coming and that is a big technical advancement. Making room for a larger bitcoin economy so to speak.
BLong
by Kryptokelly
10