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Wave 3 UpdateHere is out map of Primary wave 2 to this point. It is unclear if Minor 5 and Primary wave 2 are completed. Now that Primary wave 2 retraced all of Primary wave 1's movement and then some, instead of limiting historical datasets to a ratioed range, I am comparing all similar micro waves where wave 2 moved more than wave 1. Elliott wave theory says wave 2 cannot move more than wave 1, my modified theory permits this when it occurs. Wave 1's movement / Wave 2's movement = 0.9957. I compared all data in which this ratio is less than 1 (Wave 2 was larger than wave 1) and the numbers look a little more realistic moving forward. According to the data, Primary wave 3 should bottom above 3754 and less than 4036. The duration will likely last 608-740 trading hours. I still have other models with heavy agreement at a duration around 690-699 hours. Most models have the bottom between 3750-3799, which falls inline with the historical ratioed data. I will use the target of 3775 (drop 834.23 points from Friday's high) in 690 hours for estimating the Intermediate wave endpoints. Preliminary bottom for Intermediate 1 is below 4350 before December 25. Intermediate wave 2 up toward 4500 by January 10. Intermediate wave 3 will be a significant drop over time, current look is 3900 by end of February. Intermediate wave 4 bounces up toward 4100 by mid-March. Current Primary wave 3 and Intermediate wave 5 bottom is around 3775 by early May. Again this is all under the assumption Primary wave 2 is where we are, has completed, or will complete shortly after the open tomorrow. Primary wave 2 cannot realistically sustain too much more upside otherwise my wave placement is well off. More updates to follow.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
6
Week starts up, before short bear runCurrent assumption is that Minute waves A and B are complete and the final Minute wave C should bring the market up early this week to complete Minor wave 4. The high for the week should occur prior the close on Tuesday. This analysis will point out the levels and locations to monitor for this event. An early peek of Intermediate wave 3’s final projection is also included. METHODOLOGY: I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points, but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly more broad, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. MINUTE WAVE C For the Minute wave C finishing points, estimated end is between the final hour of trading on Monday through the final hour on Tuesday. The general level for the top is 4345-4360, quite a bit of data points to the 4355-4360 area, there is another pocket between 4370-4380 which is the red box. I am not looking for the top that high, but the data says it is possible so it is important to be aware of it. MINOR WAVE 4 Minor wave 4's target box is the larger yellow box (Minute wave C in Minor 4 was the green box which included the white box). The yellow box was larger before the Minute waves inside of it traded. The overlap of both Minute wave C and Minor 4 end points favors the white box which is my target. Once Minor 4 is over, the market should head down to finish Intermediate wave 3 with Minor wave 5. I will forecast Minor wave 5, once data is available and pointing to the completion of Minor 4. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 3 Intermediate wave 3 will finish with Minor wave 5 and the updated forecast places the now doable target box between 4040-4140. Strongest data is between 4080-4105 which I will assign as the current target. Back at 4450, 4150 seemed like a long shot, but time and a strong third wave make it possible. Short-term jubilation could see the upward finish of Minor wave 4 IF a government shutdown is averted as the current downside to this event is a drop in the US credit rating. Typically, government shutdowns are welcomed and positive for the market, but the country has not been under the threat of a credit downgrade should the event occur. Inflation numbers were up on Friday and should continue to look bad through the end of Intermediate wave 3. The $20+ rise in oil over the past 2 months has not significantly impacted the price of goods yet, the OPEC meeting this week could assist in tipping those scales and sending the market into Minor wave 5 down. Still unsure what causes Intermediate wave 4 to take markets upward from mid-October through likely mid-November. SCHEDULED ECONOMIC NEWS: Monday will have manufacturing data and Fed speakers while not much on Tuesday. This could point to the gains being more on Monday and slowing on Tuesday if not already reversing. Wednesday is a heavy news day. United States PPI data comes out October 11, which is around the projected time of the market bottom and end of Intermediate wave 3. CPI is the following day. If this is the start of the market reversal and movement upward, it would appear the September inflation numbers did not rise. Next FOMC meeting is end of October and could be a key event for the end of Intermediate 4’s rise and begin the next monthlong market drop.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
Moved too quick, is moving too quick or in wrong spotBest case--market is up tomorrow, however the high will be the highest high experienced for the next few years. See why below. Moved too quick? There is a possible chance Intermediate wave 2 completed today at the high within the first hour of trading. The forecast zone for ending price was 4519-4536 with a median historical target based on the most relational 2C12 wave ending at 4525.03. The slightly broader median data target for C12 waves was 4536.93, while the broadest dataset for 12 waves was 4528.65. Today’s top was 4527.37. If Intermediate wave 2 ended at this top, wave 2 would have lasted a whole 5 hours AFTER Intermediate wave 1 was 65 hours. Intermediate wave 2 would have lasted 7.69% the length of wave 1. Historical waves ending in 2C12 have made it at least 14.29% the length of the preceding wave 1. Wave 2’s ending in C12 have recorded lengths that are 7.5 and 7.69% of preceding wave 1. This is the first possibility to consider. If this scenario is true, downward movement should continue tomorrow. Moving too quick? Most models predicted at least 19 hours for the length of Intermediate wave 2. Second most agreement was 65 hours (length of wave 1), third was 32 hours and fourth was 22 hours. If the high recorded today was the end of Minor wave A AND today’s low afterward was Minor wave B, Minor wave C will be a long, slow climb or best-case end tomorrow and requiring another 70 point gain in one day (not impossible as of late). The main concerns supporting this thesis is today’s low dropped beneath the starting point of what would have to be Minor wave A. Corrective waves are the only waves in which wave B can surpass the starting point of the preceding wave which is what happened when today’s low dropped to 4577.92 which was a 105% retracement of Minor wave A’s movement. On a brighter note, Minor wave A was originally forecasted to end around 4525 IF all of Intermediate wave 2 were to sustain a top near 4532. Minor wave B was temporarily placed in a conservative position 40 points beneath A. IF the index remains in Intermediate wave 2, it is likely in Minor wave C up. There is no expectation or requirement for duration and the top can occur anywhere near the top of A, to include falling short of it. This scenario will hold true if the market is up tomorrow. A further drop below 4457.92 invalidates this theory. In the wrong spot? There are 3 clear waves moving upward for the currently marked Minor wave A at 4527.37 from today and 5 waves down for the currently marked Minor wave B (which can are most visible on a smaller timeframe chart). Minor wave A should have 5 waves in it and wave B should have 3. The alternative is that the currently marked Minor wave A up is either Intermediate wave 2 being fully completed, or some sort of wave 2 or wave 4 action from another macro wave set which would mean we are clearly in the wrong place. The Intermediate wave 2 scenario is a possibility, and the 5 waves afterward moving down could then be the first wave 1 down inside of Intermediate wave 3. This would mean the waves have sped up almost to an unrealistic, but possible pace. This is most likely NOT Minute wave 4 from Minor wave 5 back in Intermediate wave 1 because would be called Minute wave 4 has surpassed the ending point of what was marked as Minute wave 2. A new and sustained low below 4450 tomorrow could prove this scenario true. I have received wave 3 of wave 3 indicators all of the previously mentioned and plotted locations which is part of my bias believing the chart above is marked accurately. However, even with 3 of 3 indicators in the correct position, another wave could have sped up or slowed down which could push us further ahead than charted. The original Intermediate wave 2 forecast levels remain on the right side of the chart. If Minor wave C continues with upward movement tomorrow, the historical levels based on the currently placed Minor waves A & B are on the left. Minor wave C is not expected to move much higher than 4527.37 (the high from Minor wave A). Based on historical waves ending in C12C (light blue levels), the first quartile movement extension is 110.40%, the median is 126.14%, and the third quartile is 126.49%. This is not a typo. A large chunk of the data has had the top between 115-127%. This would be 4544 at the highest which is in line with the original Intermediate wave 2 projection at 4541.90. Models project Minor wave C to last 4-5 trading hours which would place the top toward the end of the trading day tomorrow (Friday August 11). All historical Minor wave C have travelled at least 105% of wave A’s movement placing a probable floor around 4530 (Minor wave C should end above 4530 per this data point). Based on waves ending in 12C (yellow levels), quartiles are 110.54%, 126.49%, and 172.42%. Models once again agree on 4-5 hours, with an outside chance at 8 hours long. Based on the broadest dataset of waves ending in 2C (white lines), the quartiles are 116.55%, 138.4%, and 180.25%. Duration still holds firm at 4-5 hours with outside chance at 8. Bottom-line is tomorrow could continue the whipsaw up and back down, up into the weekend, or just outright down. Intermediate wave 2 from a duration standpoint will not likely end on late Monday or early Tuesday as originally projected. The level for the top and end of Intermediate wave 2 still looks valid. I have re-adjusted the target box for the new projected zone IF we are still in Intermediate wave 2 and the market moves up tomorrow.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
5
Early High on Friday Followed By New Weekly Low Tomorrow?If we are in Intermediate wave 1 down, we are likely near the end of Minor wave 4 up. Here is confirmation of wave 3 of 3 with the pink bars aligning in the bottom indicator at Minute wave 3 (green) inside of Minor wave 3 (yellow): There is a chance Minor wave 4 up has finished and was only 2 hours long. While the other likely option and one pursued in this chart is that Minute wave B has likely finished or could finish near the open. If Minute wave B ended with the low from August 3rd, then wave C will likely conclude within the first 3 hours of trading on August 4th. Strongest model agreement has wave 4 lasting 6 hours which would mean the top occurs within the first hour of trading. Secondary and tertiary models point to a likely maximum length of 8 hours (the third hour of trading on August 4th). The possible reversal levels are based on the following datasets in order from most specific to current wave location to more broad datasets. Light Blue levels are possible locations of market top tomorrow Yellow is slightly less specific than light blue White is most broad dataset The muted pink color represents specific data for Minute wave 4s in Minor wave 1s in Intermediate wave 1s. Basically the high tomorrow will occur within the first or second hour of trading and not go above 4550. Most conservative zone for the top is between 4524-4536. If the high from August 3rd is not surpassed on August 4th, the market will likely head down (and is already) into the final wave 5 of Intermediate wave 1. Initial loose projection is for this near-term market bottom to occur next week. Once confirmation of Minor wave 4's endpoint is recorded, Minor wave 5 will be projected.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
6
If the top is in, we find the bottomStill awaiting additional price confirmation we are in Cycle wave C downward, but here is the current forecast if the current market top holds. My hourly program generated the usual waypoints based on historical data. Interestingly enough, Cycle wave A (the downward period between January – October 2022 was 1365 trading hours. Not to be outdone, Cycle wave B upward (October 2022 to July 2023) was 1366 trading hours. A common ABC relationship at times is the length of A plus the length of B equaling the length of wave C. I have outlined the most common lengths the program agreed on regarding the length of cycle wave C and placed them vertically on the chart. Of course 2731 hours is one of those values which could place the possible bottom as late as February 2025. The market bottoms based on most specific dataset to the current wave structure are the light blue levels, next slightly broader dataset produced the yellow levels, and the broadest dataset of waves ending in 2C are the white levels. Based on these potential lengths and overall movements, I determined where Primary wave 1 should bottom based on historical data and each yellow outlined boxed represents these factors. I generally do not trade too much during the first wave, but instead allow the first wave to finish and then begin buying and selling based on the finalized data and historical relationships for expected movement. If Cycle wave C is 910 trading hours long, then the smallest box would likely contain the location of Primary wave 1’s bottom. The left side of this rectangle is the minimum length of time based on historical Primary wave 1 data and therefore the timeframe that wave 1 would likely reach at a minimum. The right side of this rectangle represents the third quartile of historical movement and therefore a possible maximum timeframe for wave 1’s bottom to occur. The additional boxes do the same regarding left and right bounds and all boxes correlate with the next duration in order (i.e. if the overall length is 1366 hours, the bottom should occur between the left and right bounds of the next largest rectangle). Rectangles were created for 910, 1366, 1821, 2047, 2731, and 3415 trading hours. The top and bottoms of the box relate to the potential market bottoms for the bear market. The top of the smallest box relates to the minimum historical movement if the market bottom is at 3328.09. The bottom of this same box relates to the third quartile of historical data for 3328.09. If the bottom ends between the top and bottom of this box, the market bottom could be around 3328.09. The tops and bottoms of the next box are related to an overall market bottom around 3271.95. Rectangles were created for market bottoms of 3328.09, 3271.95, 3183.44, 2972.71, 2878.89, and 2733.44. What does all this mean? Once Primary wave 1 ends, the bottom should fall in one of these boxes. We could use the endpoint to potentially rule out what the duration and bottoms WILL NOT be for this bear market. If the bottom of Primary wave 1 falls in the small rectangle which overlaps all rectangles, nothing can be ruled out yet. Additionally, the bottom of Primary wave 1 should get below 4300 at the very least, considering the market is above 4500 today, we are looking for at least a 200 point drop over the next few weeks. My initial projection for the market bottom from last July was around 2400 by March 2025. Based on all the completed data to this point, I am looking for a bottom sooner and likely in the middle of the fall of 2024. The bottom should not be as deep as originally forecasted either, and my initial call is likely no lower than 2700, but likely below 2900. So far it looks like the country’s credit rating was the first of many dominos to fall over the next year as the market moves lower. I still think a China v. Taiwan situation could do the most damage, but we shall see what happens. Oil prices have been creeping up as well over the past month and the inflated costs of goods have not begun to take form yet. Companies will be refinancing their debts at higher and higher levels moving forward and nowhere near enough companies have failed yet. Big ones will fall, and best guess as at least 4 big names go down before the market is done moving down.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
Market Tops Tomorrow?The index never dropped today, which points to the second thesis that we were already in the final Minor wave 5 upward. The SP:SPX is not clear on position and waves, however, the futures are much clearer. This 15 minute chart outlines the possible Minor wave 4 path from start to finish along with current position in Minor wave 5. The bottom for the market was the low from July 20th. This means wave 5 is 2 days old and tomorrow is day 3. Typically wave 5 should move beyond prior wave 3 endpoints. In this case, if Minute wave 3 is in the books (green iii on chart), the market should move above that prior high (July 24) and the prior high established from Minor wave 3 (yellow 3) from July 19. Tomorrow could be a big day of moves with a possible top during the day or on Wednesday pre-Federal Reserve. Assuming we have completed at least Minute wave 3 with the high from July 24, Minute wave 4 could do the following based on hourly data. Based on waves ending in C554, the movement retracement quartiles are 29%, 38.94%, and 60.85%. Models agree the most with Minute wave 4 lasting 1 or 2 hours. Second agreement is at 3 or 4 hours, third is 0 hours, fourth is 6 hours. Based on waves ending in 554, the quartile retracements are 19.68%, 41.47%, and 53.75%. Strongest model agreement has the wave lasting 1 hour (117 models), with second most agreement at 2 hours (91 models), third place is drastically weaker at 0 hours (68 models), and the models are even weaker with 18 of them at 6 hours, 17 at 3 hours, and 16 at 5 hours. Based on waves ending in 54, the quartiles are at 23.17%, 36.355% and 54.07%. Length is 1 hour (581 models), 2 hours (411 models), 0 hours (379), 3 hours (111), 4 hours (95), 6 hours (90). Based on historical data for Minute wave 4 inside Minor wave 5 inside Intermediate wave 5, Minute wave 4 retracement quartiles are 19.53%, 42.535%, and 43.14%. Duration is strongest at 1 hour, then 2 hours, and then 5 hours. The chart currently has Minute wave 4 at 1 hour long and the retracement is near the third quartile or further end of historical data. This could mean Minute wave 4 has already been completed. Furthermore, Minute wave 5 is already 1 hour old. Another factor to note is the length of Minute wave 1 was 6 hours and Minute wave 3 was only 5 hours. A major rule of this wave theory is that wave 3 cannot be the shortest in length. This would require Minute wave 5 (already being 1 hour old) should not be longer than 5 hours total. However, during studies of micro waves this rule has been broken multiple times and may not be a limiting factor in the current instance. There is still a chance the market drops in the first hour of trading below the current Minute wave 4 low of 4547.47 in which case the data in the next paragraph is an hour later than it is stated. Regardless, tomorrow is lining up for the market top. What does the historical data indicate could happen assuming Minute wave 4 has completed? Based on waves ending in C555, the quartile movement extensions are 121.06%, 134.44%, and 171.99%. Models agree the most at 2 hours long, secondary is 1 hour long, third is 5 hours long (possible max based on rule wave 3 cannot be shortest), fourth is 4 hours, fifth is 6 hours. Based on waves ending in 555, the quartile movement extensions are 118.44%, 130.21%, and 159.05%. Model agreements for lengths are 1 hour (114 models), 2 hours (96), 3 hours (60), 5 hours (38), 4 hours (34), 0 hours (28), 7 hours (20). Based on waves ending in 55, the quartile extensions are 113.1%, 126.06%, and 154.92%. The forecasted lengths are 1 hour (626 models), 2 hours (494 models), 3 hours (230), 4 hours (185), 5 hours (174), 0 hours (161), and 6 hours (142). The final dataset is for Minute wave 5s inside of Minor wave 5s, inside of Intermediate wave 5s where the extension quartiles are 106.40%, 121.955%, and 152.06%. Modelled duration is 1 hour, 2 hours, 3 hours, and 6 hours. The levels for Minor wave 5 are the right most items on the chart above. If Historical data holds true, we may barely make it to 4578 (the current high from Minor wave 3), and north of 4585 does not look possible. After the close are big tech earnings which normally have a bullish push into it. We shall see what happens. If tomorrow is not the top and/or Minute wave 4 or Minor wave 4 decide to return to life, I will analyze more tomorrow night.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Recalculated path to market bottomHere is a recalculated path to possible market bottom IF the current market top is in. Key Takeaways: Not as shallow or long as initial projections For now the bottom could be around August-September 2024 and no longer at the end of 2024 or first quarter of 2025 as initially projected. The maximum bottom based on historical data is 2850 and not likely. At best the bottom could be around 2900. I will continue to readjust targets and timelines as each wave downward is completed. There is a slight chance we are in wave 4 (downward) of the final wave 5 up, however, a wave 3 indicator is yet to occur and is beyond late on the hourly chart. It occurred properly on the daily chart when the final macro wave 3 (Intermediate wave 3) topped on June 16. A drop below 4328 should confirm the market has topped. A move above the current top of 4527 would mean the top is not in yet. The market will likely move down this week whether just entering Minor wave 4 of Intermediate wave 5 of Primary wave C in Cycle wave B up or in Primary wave 1 of Cycle wave C down The market should begin a major economic boom once the bottom is in next autumn. The bottom will end corrective wave--Supercycle wave 2, and begin Supercycle wave 3 which should be a major uptrend for 16-20 years minimum.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Is tomorrow the day we predicted last year to be the market top?FOR THE FULL ANALYTICAL RIGOR THAT IS WORTH READING START HERE (otherwise skip to the section titled if you only care about the future “START HERE IF YOU SKIPPED THE TOP”) It has been a long year since we got the program working, calculating probabilities, and identifying where we likely were in time. Sometime early 2022, I realized what would happen if we took all S&P 500 price data, applied structured Elliott Wave Theory to it, identified the relationships between all macro and micro wave structures, and determined our current location in time to forecast future movement. By early July 2022, I realized if we completed SubMillennial wave 1--Grand Supercycle 5--Supercycle 1 in January 2022, then I could take prior wave relationships to forecast the 3 waves inside of Supercycle 2 based on the data from Supercycle wave 1. This forecast can be found here: It forecasted the bottom of the first wave down (Cycle wave A) to end around October 18, 2022, the top of the second wave up (Cycle wave B) to end around mid-July 2023, and the final bottom (Cycle wave C and Supercycle wave 2) likely in the first quarter of 2025. I would update my program every time I believed waves completed and re-calculate these points and the movement over the next few weeks to months. Feel free to head to my profile to view all ideas. A few reversal points did occur earlier or later than forecasted at higher and lower levels, but I learned the original forecasts were normally the most accurate. One of the key places I rushed a forecast was as we got closer to October 18th I had the bottom occurring later in the October or closer to November. This August 20, 2022 analysis had the levels and days for the bottom spot on, but I temporarily went a different way. The relational data was proving more and more accurate. The actual bottom in October was on the 13th instead of the first forecast of the 18th. I finally accepted the bottom by December 5, 2022, once I went back to review my older analysis. From there the program continued to call waves out well, with Primary wave A happening lower than expected but on the date as seen in the December 5th analysis above. Primary wave B was long and the internal wave C never broke below the initial wave A which was confusing, however Primary wave B was forecasted on December 6th to occur in the middle of March and sure enough it occurred on March 13, 2023 as seen below: But after this original forecasting from the program I continued to attempt to find Primary B in many places after a traditional ABC wave down which never came. Finally by March 2, I reviewed my original analysis and updated Primary wave B to end around March 14 and it ended March 13 as seen here: Upon completion of Primary wave B, I forecasted the market top and end of Primary wave C. The forecasted date was June 16th no higher than 4403.88 as seen here: After the completion of Minor wave 2 inside of Intermediate wave 1, I updated the market top to June 20th, based on Intermediate wave 1 likely lasting longer than initially expected when Minor wave 1 ran long as seen here: At this time I loosely placed Intermediate waves 1-5 in their projected locations as well. The market top was re-adjusted again back to June 16th on April 9th as seen here: Intermediate wave 2 was forecasted on April 17th as was spot on on April 26th here: Intermediate wave 3 was much longer than expected after gaining 33% of the expected gain in the first day followed by being slow and trading sideways at times too which is very abnormal of a wave 3. By May 7, I had backed the market top back up to July and then debt ceiling chaos broke out. With the debt ceiling resolved Intermediate wave 3 was still slowly moving. Then my program threw me for the biggest curveball I could not believe and thought it was an error. Intermediate wave 3 had finally wrapped up. All preceding waves to that point had been 12-25 days long. In my wisdom, Intermediate wave 4 would likely be in the middle of that range. The program urged it would only be 2 days AND only retrace 15.06% of Intermediate wave 3’s movement. I was skeptical but went with it and said it could last 4 days. Intermediate wave 4 lasted only 3 days and after I adjusted the Fibonacci tool retracement levels, 15.06% said the bottom would be at 4261.479 as seen here: The actual bottom was 4261.07. Finally on June 8, 2023 Ziggy spits out the plan for Intermediate wave 5 as seen here: START HERE IF YOU SKIPPED THE TOP The models are pointing for Intermediate wave 5 to last between 3-5 days with the likely top around 4393.93. I chose 4 days and around but not likely over 4400. After all the projections and models and recalculations over the past year we are here. Still around 4400 and back to mid-June. AND it’s Fed day with some high expectations of no hikes and word of a future cut in 2023. Elation should follow if this happens, but what else is going on. Inflation since 2021 is now around 16% and has increased every month since mid-2021. Wages for everyone have not increased even close to 16%. Mortgages are around 7%, not many people rushing to trade their 2% mortgage for a 7% mortgage now. Students with loan need to start paying the piper as they begin to accrue new interest again. Those that did not wisely save their payments and collect interest on that money over the past two years are about to give up some luxuries which means retailers and restaurants are will soon see declining sales. Chaos bound to rattle the 2024 Presidential tickets is just gaining steam with outcomes unknown. Meanwhile the VIX was at its lowest level since pre-COVID last Friday signaling complacency in an economy that continues to lay off workers. All the numbers are not moving synchronously in the proper directions which likely precedes market corrections. In this case, based on all the data, this is likely the major bear market I identified last year. I can always be wrong, or we can go up a little higher before correcting. But I have learned my lesson to trust the original analysis and that says the top is in. It would be smart to not repeat 2008 and watch your retirement accounts and 401Ks plummet 50% when you have the opportunity to do something about it today. Maybe move to cash or something with less exposure to major companies and indices or the G Fund for you government employees. You may not make much money and can always switch it up if the program is wrong, or you can save your retirement and sit out of the market for 14-18 months until we find the bottom. While others begin recovering and realize they need to pick up a second job or leave retirement for work again (Tom Brady might not mind) to survive, you could then ride the next major bull market up. Follow me if you would like to see where the models take us moving forward.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
3
The last hurrah is here. All aboard to 2400As projected yesterday, Intermediate wave 4 could be complete based on the early morning low on June 8. There is a slim chance Minor wave B inside of Intermediate wave 4 is the current location, but that will be invalidated if the index goes above 4300 tomorrow. To recap. Intermediate wave 1 was 25 trading days and gained 360.62 points. Intermediate wave 2 dropped 121.2 points over 12 days for a retracement of 33.61%. Intermediate wave 3 then gained 251 points over 21 days which was a price extension of 135.99% from the starting point of Intermediate wave 1. Intermediate wave 4 was likely completed today and would have retraced 15.22% of wave 3 by only dropping 38.21 points over 3 days. I am surprised by the accuracy of the models to project such a shallow drop over very few days in Intermediate wave 4 but the historic data was spot on. I put is in Sub-millennial wave 1, Grand Supercycle wave 5, Supercycle wave 2, Cycle wave B, Primary wave C, Intermediate wave 5. I use shorthand to call it 152BC5 Intermediate wave 5 must now be less than the 21 days of Intermediate wave 3 as wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave. Based on models ending in 2BC5, strongest model agreement is on wave 5 to last 2 or 17 days, second most agreement is at 4, 5, and 18 days. The quartile movement extensions based on Intermediate wave 3’s movement (light blue lines) are 121.05%, 153.2%, and 186.17%. The first quartile of all historic movement reverses after a move to the 121.05% level which is 4352.12. The median movement reverses after a move to the 153.2% level which is 4432.81, while the third quartile is at 186.17% which is 4515.57. Based on waves ending in BC5, largest model agreement places the length at 5 trading days in length, second most agreement is 6 and 18 days, third is 3, 4, 10, and 12 days. The quartile movement extensions (yellow level) are 122.06%, 137.71% and 153.2%. Final projections are based on waves ending in C5 where largest model agreement has the length at 4 days, second most at 6 days, third most at 5 days, fourth at 12 days. The quartile retracements (white line) 109.46%, 122.9%, and 151.06%. There are also two major resistance lines in play. One stems from the end of Primary wave A from December 1, 2022 and aligned with the Intermediate wave B top from Primary wave B on February 2, 2023. The other trendline has been solid resistance since February 21st and the market never closed above it since then. If this second trendline proves the fatal resistance, it could be tested as late as June 26 around a level of 4352.12. If the first resistance line is the fatal level it could be around 4393.93 and achieved as soon as the day of the next Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. I dramatically call this next top a fatal level in that I expect it to be the final market top for many years. This will be the end of Cycle wave B and a continuation of the Bear Market which ultimately topped on January 4, 2022. I am projecting the length of Intermediate wave 5 to last between 4 and 12 trading days. I have three key dates which could contain the top based on the historical data above. Day 4 is the next Federal Reserve rate decision on June 14th. Day 11 is June 26th where nothing major appears to be occurring which is the same on July 5 or Day 17. I do not expect the top to surpass 4410 and could possibly top out around 4393. 4393 is within 100 points from today’s close which means Intermediate wave 5 will likely be very fast. The TVC:VIX is very low right now and a huge indicator of complacency in an economy that is quickly slowing and on the immediate verge of higher inflation and/or recession. A break above the second mentioned resistance trendline may get the bulls fired up but I am 95% certain it is a false breakout and bull trap. My initial calls for the bottom are around December 2024 somewhere between 2200-2400. I have been projecting this entire run up and final bottom since July of last year with pretty decent accuracy. I am using math, statistics and history to project forward market movement. I have figured this next drop could revolve around China taking Taiwan and disrupting the world’s microchip supply. Not sure if this happens next week but it could still be an issue that further escalates the selling over the next 12 months. There is a chance the US economy is heavily impacted now that students must continue paying their student loan debt and thus not spending money on luxury items or other facets of their daily lives. There is also a chance of Russia doing something exotic in Ukraine to attempt to upend the conflict. And as always the other black swan event most people have not seen coming. Metals will likely become more expensive and most companies selling luxury goods that are not necessary will get crushed (I am thinking NYSE:DIS and NYSE:DRI here). Casinos and gambling websites could have issues sometime next year when money starts to get very tight and people can not afford to make the gambles they will likely take in the beginning. Some companies will outright fail and go bankrupt while others will be forced to slash prices to remain relevant once the world comes out of this recession. Don’t panic, invest wisely.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Looks like two weeks left of the bear market nowThe end is coming in focus. We have re-adjusted some key points and placed the next estimates on the chart. The biggest question was the placement of Minor 1 (yellow), once Minor 2 jumped. We are breaking down the future on the hourly chart to make it easier to follow along. We are in Minor wave 3, a day later than originally expected. The index dropped after the inflation report as expected, but the nearly 200 point rise was surprising. We called the low on the morning of the inflation report the end of Minor 1 and the top occurred early Friday to end Minor 2. We are now in Minor 3. Based on waves ending in 553, models have highest agreement on a length of 1, 2, and 4 days long. Second highest agreement at 5 days and then it drops to 3 and 7 days. Movement extensions based on waves ending in 553 have 1st quartile movement at 124.33%, median at 158.475%, and 3rd quartile at 1.7654%. These levels are plotted with the light blue lines on the chart. Based on waves ending in 53, models have highest agreement on 4 days, second highest on 5 days, then 7 days, 3 days, and 1 day rounding out the top 5 potential lengths. Movement extensions on the same data has the quartiles at 147.99%, 167.45%, and 201.7%. I am looking for a target of about 5 trading days. My models do not count the day Minor 2 ended (Friday October 14) as day 1. This means day 5 would be this coming Friday. Five trading days consist of 32.5 trading hours, and I will round this wave out to around 35 trading hours. Six of those hours has finished and occurred on Friday. Minor wave 3 is composed of 5 Minute waves. Minute wave 1 tends to account for 21% of the overall length of the wave it resides in, Minute wave 2 is around 11%, 3 is 40%, 4 is 9%, and 5 is 25%. Based on these values and an estimated total for Minor wave 3 to be near 35 trading hours, I am projecting Minute wave 1 to last around 7 hours, meaning we may bottom within the first 2 hours on Monday October 17. We would then rise over the next 4 trading hours. I rounded this out to align near the end of trading on Monday, meaning we could top and end Minute wave 2 late tomorrow. Minute wave 3 could last 14 hours. This means the market will likely drop on Tuesday and Wednesday (accounting for around 13 hours). Thursday could begin Minute wave 4 up for around 3 hours. This means we may start Thursday on an upward trajectory but top midday and begin the final wave 5 decline. I have wave 5 running through the close on Friday. These dates, times and projected levels are outlined on the chart above. I have also adjusted the end points and levels for Minor waves 4 and 5. Minor wave will be the bottom of the market for 2022. We will see how it pans out but I think the bear market is nearly over….for now. We have done well forecasting these past few months and will see what the future holds. The biggest indicator to our system would be the indeed short-term bottom occurring around the end of this month and a massive reversal to follow. Let us know what you think
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
2
Time To See If Elliott Wave Can Predict This RecessionIf we are beginning wave 3, I have us in Sub-Millenial wave 1, Grand Supercycle wave 5, Supercycle wave 2, Cycle wave A, Primary wave 5, Intermediate wave 3. I alphanumerically refer to this wave as 152A53 Intermediate wave 2 met all of its targeted movement and it bounced perfectly off of the median wave 1 retracement. With all goals met, the major drops are scheduled next. It all begins with the inflation numbers pre-market tomorrow and then followed by a week of speculation on what the Fed will do. I have both of these events occurring in Intermediate wave 3 and each event is a catalyst for the pending 700 points, Elliott Wave Theory is hinting at dropping over the next month. If this movement does not occur, my wave count is wrong or EW is complete $#*&^#%$. I have highlighted potential extension points based on historical movement for waves ending in 53 and A53. For waves ending in 53: 75% of the time (the first quartile of data) wave 1's movement is surpassed by 147.99% 50% of the time (the median) wave 1's movement is surpassed by 166.31% 25% of the time (the third quartile) wave 1's movement is surpass by 209.7% all of these levels are indicated by the yellow extension lines For waves ending in A53: Quartile 1 is 161.34% (near the "perfect ratio") Median is 193.26% Quartile 3 is 267.24% all of these levels are indicated by the light blue extension lines. My target bottom is somewhere around 3595, but we will see how intense the selling is. This could also look like capitulation selling, but I think that will actually occur in 2024. I will continue to re-evaluate as we work our way through this.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
3
Final Market Drop For Now Looks Like...We are potentially in the early stages of Primary wave 5 in overall Cycle A of SuperCycle 2. SuperCycle 2 began shortly after the beginning of January this year as we are yet to revisit a new all-time high for the S&P 500 index. The wave number nomenclature for this wave being analyzed is 152A5. I may reference the end of this structure (2A5 or A5) when comparing against historical data. I will try to forward forecast the end of Cycle A which will coincide with the end of Primary wave 5. I will do this by studying the relationships of each Primary wave we have encountered and compare it to the historical relationships between each wave and wave 5. After a rough timeline to completion is established, I will then work backwards and attempt to plot the endpoints for each of the 5 Intermediate waves inside of Primary wave 5. This blueprint will be tweaked as we move through Primary wave 5. (NOTE: If we are still in Primary wave 4, I will re-accomplish these steps once wave 4 appears to have concluded. We are likely still in wave 4 if a high above 4012 is achieved this week, however, Friday July 29, 2022 is likely the last day in this wave.) WAVELENGTH BASED ON STRUCTURE ENDING (A5 / 2A5) Based on all waves ending in 2A5, the strongest model agreement suggests this current wave will last 23 trading days. The second strongest agreement is at 46 days and third strongest at 19 days. Primary wave 1 lasted 35 days, wave 2 was 23 days, wave 3 was 56 days, and as of now wave 4 is 23 days. Waves ending in 2A5 tend to makeup 14.29-16-25% of the larger waves they reside inside with the first value being the 1st quartile, second is the median, and last is 3rd quartile based on all available data. Based on the duration of Primary waves 1 through 4 and application of the 14.29-25% values, Primary 5 could last 23, 26, or 46 days. Waves ending in A5 slightly expand this range with a 15.38-19.18-29.03% quartile breakdown. Replicating this analysis per the last portion, Primary 5 could last 25, 32, or 56 days. Primary waves ending in 2A5 makeup 15.56% - 36.95% of the wave in which they reside. This would add lengths of 25 and 80 days. Primary wave 5 has moved beyond the length of Primary wave 3 on only 2 of 28 occasions. This means the overall length will likely be less than 56 trading days. There are other studied areas and ratios, however the standard deviations in the data does not point to much consistency. The ratio between the duration of Primary wave 4 to Primary wave 5 sits in a relatively small window. Wave 4’s duration in trading days to wave 5 has a median ratio of 0.4358. This means wave 4’s duration of 23 days divided by 0.4358 could see Primary wave 5 lasting 53 days. Quartile 1’s ratio is 0.2517 and quartile 3 is 0.6507. The first quartile would have the length at 91 days while the third quartile would be 35 days. For reference, 23 days would end August 24; 25—August 26; 26—August 29; 32—September 7; 35—September 12; 46—September 27; 56—October 11; 80—November 14; 91—November 30. Most of these days point to a potential bottom by mid-September, however, Primary wave 5 may end as late as November. Calculating the duration of the waves has proven one of the more difficult tasks undertaken during Elliott Wave forecasting, but we are getting better. Realistically we may drop until the next Federal Reserve meeting in September where inflation may appear under more control than it has been. That meeting is scheduled for September 21. WAVE MOVEMENT FORECASTING Wave 5 tends to extend beyond the end of wave 3’s value. These extensions are considered as percentages of wave 3’s movement. If Primary wave 5 drops to the end of Primary wave 3 at 3636.87, then 100% of wave 3’s movement would have been achieved. Waves ending in 2A5 have extensions with the quartile breakdowns of 112.36%-135.09%-204.51%. Waves ending in A5 have a quartile breakdown of 112.36-122.26-163.93%. Primary wave 5s have a quartile breakdown of 105.86-120.12-153.08%. Lastly, Primary wave 5s ending in A5 extend 112.36%, 114.06%, 116.69%, and 203.9% beyond Primary wave 3. Most of these levels have been plotted on the chart above. Another datapoint for forecasting movement is how much wave 5 makes up of the overall wave in which it resides. Waves ending in A5 makeup 36.90%-49.71%-74.18% in the quartile breakdown. Waves ending in 2A5 makeup 30.60%-56.75%-86.46%. Primary wave 5’s tend to makeup 26.305-41.04-51.51% in the quartile breakdown. Primary waves ending in 2A5 specifically makeup 21.37%, 23.51%, 36.09% and 75.12%. Assuming Wave 5 moves beyond the end of Primary wave 3, wave 5’s movement should account for greater than 32% of the overall wave. If Primary wave 5 makes up greater than 70%, the market bottom would be below 2112. This level is well beyond the rare drop level of 2636 which would be a 200% extension of Primary wave 3. Movement below 2636 is likely out of the realm of possible for this Primary wave 5. This would mean wave 5 will likely account for 32%-63% of Cycle wave A’s movement. The bottom of Cycle wave A Primary wave 5 should occur within the highlighted box in the chart above.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Five theories of the market's future. All bad short-termI have come up with a few theories in trying to determine where we are and what could happen next. I believe we are in Sub-Millennial wave 1 (began June 1877), Grand Supercycle wave 5 (began March 2009), Supercycle wave 2 (began January 4, 2022), Cycle wave A (January 4), Primary wave 1 (January 4), Intermediate wave 5 (began June 2, 2022), Minor wave 2 (began June 17 at 1030 eastern time). This is the primary assumption as to where we are (and is referenced as 152A152 based on the wave), but I will explore what should occur next if this is true along with timelines. Theory #2 would have us in a wave ending in 152A52. Theory #3 would put us in a wave ending in 152A4A where Primary 3 just ended at 1030 on June 17 and therefore we will move up for a month or so. Theory #4 is that I am very off base in my wave markings while theory #5 would be that Elliott Wave Theory is only good for Monday morning quarterbacking and the Jacksonville Jaguars will win more times than Elliott Wave will. The U.S. economy is on the brink of major trouble and no one appears to be willing to do anything to stop it so theory #1 is the most plausible at this time. Recession is here and will linger for many quarters. The beginning of Theory #1 must consider what could happen with Supercycle wave 2 (referenced as 152). Supercycle wave 1 lasted 3252 trading days and ran from March 2009 until January 2022. The index began at 666.79 and topped at 4818.62 for a total move of 4151.83 and rise over run of 1.277 points per day (move/trading days). Based on similar waves ending in 52, the models agree the most that this downward cycle could last 813 trading days which would put the end of this overall downward trend in March 2025. Even if this is true we would move upward again and possibly near all-time highs before falling down. The three closest end points would have this Supercycle ending after 397 trading days (August 4, 2023), 469 (November 15, 2023) and 542 (February 28, 2024). The median movement of waves ending in 52 will move 44.44% of the predecessor wave. This would put the median length at 1445 trading days (August 2027). While this does not bode well, the length could be much shorter as market and wave intensity continue to get more drastic possibly a byproduct of computer trading, technology, market participation, or other factors. Recent waves ending in 52 have seen wave 1 be 2-4 times greater than wave 2 in length. 813 days would be if wave 1 were 4x greater. More specifically, waves ending in 152 tend to last 30-100% of the length of wave 1 with a median length at 50%. The shortest possible lengths are the aforementioned 469 and 813 trading days. Determining the length of Supercycle wave 2 is only half the battle. Waves ending in 52 tend to retrace or move 32-75% of their wave 1’s movement with a median at 50.17%. This means wave 2 could find its bottom in a range 1344.36-3116.36 below the index’s all-time highs. This would place the bottom between 1702.26-3474.26 with the median bottom at 2401.12. Waves ending in 152 slightly widen the retracement to 25.37-75.67% of the prior wave with a median at 45.71%. This could place the highest bottom at 3765.30 which we have already dropped below. We can provide early estimates of Cycle wave A and Primary wave 1 inside of Theory #1, however, our next focus is on determining the end of Minor wave 2 inside of Intermediate wave 5. The ratios and percentages from the prior two paragraphs are still valid as this wave 152A152 ends in 152 and 52. Minor wave 1 lasted 11 days, dropped 540.64 points with a rise over run of 45.053. The length could be between 3-11 days. The models have the strongest agreement on 3 and 6 days long. Day 1 begins Tuesday June 21. June 23rd is 3 days with 6 occurring on June 28. A move between 25-75% of wave 1 could see a quick gain for the index of 137.16-409.10. This could place the top between 3774.03-4045.97 with a median at 3883.99. If theory #1 proves true, we will likely move quickly over the next week with a top less than 4045.97. This would still provide quick and large gains. Theory #1 is most likely wrong or off by a wave if we drop below 3636.87 before moving above 3770. This theory is the most logical at the moment but I will publish my other theories over the coming days. Once a theory works, we will move forward with it and continue to provide updates going forward.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Finally time to buy the dip...in 2 weeksI warned of this bull trap and we should now be in the final leg down. Today’s close kissed the top of the trend channel as it remained in the projected zone discussed in my recent analysis. The market could open up tomorrow, but most likely should not. Today’s highs should not get tested for at least a few more weeks. Next stop is the basement of this bear market. To recap, all five purple boxes were general estimates of where each wave should end IF Primary C were to last 37-46 days while it drops 863.93-1117.41. So far, the end of waves can be identified in each box. If the prior analysis is accurate we should bottom no later than June 3rd. The larger green box was the estimated market bottom based on relationships between Cycle waves 1 and this wave 2 as well as Primary waves A and B in relation to this wave C. The better news is that the intermediate wave data not only fit in the larger box, it narrowed the target zone. I have a final few data points that could further narrow the target bottoms. I calculate the wave extensions which determines the percent that wave 5 moves in relation to wave 3 while using the same starting point which was the end of wave 2 (beginning of wave 3). Considering all intermediate wave 5 data, the first quartile of data states that 75% of all intermediate wave 5s move at least 110.98% of wave 3’s movement. The 50% of all intermediate wave 5s move 127.12%, while 25% of all data extends 147.53%. Additionally, the average move is 136%. All of these levels are identified on the chart with the light blue lines. I further studied intermediate wave 5s inside of Primary C waves. These levels utilize the green lines on the chart. This data has 75% of the intermediate wave 5s moving 110.98%, 50% moving 120.85%, 25% moving 133.13%. The average move is 123.53%. Nearly all of these data points land in the large green and small purple target boxes previously mentioned. All told my target bottoms appear valid. Time will tell, but we are looking at another rough drop (around 10%) in about 2 weeks. I still think an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the only thing to reverse markets quickly. That war will likely only come to an end if something happens to Putin.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
The bottom is in sight, well sort of...Another wave completed (Intermediate 2) gives us a better idea of where Intermediate wave 3, Primary wave 3 and Cycle wave 2 will end. I now have us in Sub-Millennial wave 1 (began June 1877), Grand SuperCycle wave 5 (began March 6, 2009), SuperCycle wave 3 (began March 23, 2020), Cycle wave 2 (began January 4, 2022), Primary wave C (began March 29, 2022), Intermediate wave 3 (began April 21, 2022) and Minor wave 1. The shorthand for this wave is 1532C31 which is based on wave letters and numbers combined. We are either in Minor wave 1 or a sub-wave thereof (Minute wave 1 is the other likely wave). The first thing I have tried to complete is identifying the current sub-wave structure, but the past two days have almost traded in a straight diagonal movement downward. This below chart tries to identify impulse wave characteristics. My indicators at the bottom attempt to find the signals of a wave 3 and also look for the best agreement in the indicators. I have placed preliminary wave numerals on the chart as well, but these will most likely change as the wave plays out. The most agreement for wave 3 is shortly after noon Eastern time from Friday April 22. The most significant non-diagonal movement occurred at the end of the day on April 22. This could be the final drop in Minute wave 1 and possibly Minute wave 2 action culminating in the beginning of Minute wave 3. The sell-off on Friday does make a Monday rally possible, but it will not last long if it occurs. WHERE WILL INTERMEDIATE WAVE 3 END? The models have Intermediate wave 3 lasting 6, 7, 9, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17, or 19 trading days based on waves ending in 2C3. Model agreement above 21 is weak while the strongest agreement is on 7 trading days followed by 19 and then 16. Seven trading days would put the low on May 2. The Fed meets May 3-4 and will likely raise rates 0.75% or higher. The bottom may occur once their decision is public the final day. May the 4th be with you in finding the bottom. A method for finding the bottom include wave movement extensions from the respective wave 1 movement. Intermediate wave 1 began at 4637.30 and dropped 255.96. Typical Intermediate waves ending in 2C3 move 117.97 – 143.91% of what wave 1 moved. 143.91% would put the bottom at 4268.95. Friday’s low was 4267.62. The problem is that we are already at these levels and there is clearly more time in Intermediate wave 3. There are some historical outliers at 420% and 950%. A Fibonacci extension at 161.8% (4223.16) will occur too quickly as well. These outliers and our current drop hint that this method will not help. Scaling back and studying waves ending in C3 alter duration slightly. The most agreement is on 12 trading days followed by 7 and 19 days. Using the wave 1 movement extension method also provides more reasonable price targets which is 263 - 363% of wave 1’s movement. This would put the end of Intermediate 3 between 3706.73 – 3964.07. There is strong agreement between 3947 - 3964. This indicates we still have at least 300 plus points to drop over the next week or two. Intermediate wave 3 will ultimately be composed of 5 Minor waves. As each wave completes, I will continue to provide updates as to potential target bottoms and timeframes. WHERE WILL CYCLE WAVE 2 AND PRIMARY WAVE C END? CYCLE WAVE 1 DATA SAYS… Cycle wave 2 which began in January could last 45, 47, 49, 58, 68, 75, 78, 81, 85, 90, 95, 101, 104, 110, 111, 118, 125, or 150 trading days according to my models. Strongest model agreement is on 90 days. Wave 1’s length is usually 9.259 to 10.11 times larger than wave 2. This would have placed Cycle wave 2’s length around 45 days. The common smaller ratio for 1 to 2’s length is 2.529 to 4.333. This could put the length between 104-178 trading days. Friday April 22 was day 75 and we are clearly not done yet. Most C waves drop below the bottom of their wave A. Since Primary wave A bottomed at 4114.65, Primary wave C should drop to this level at a minimum. At the quickest we would be 2-3 days from this point, however, we are still in Minor wave 1 down and require a Minor wave 2 moving up. This means we are reasonably a week or two at the fastest from ending Cycle 2. My models are projecting even longer. All this to say, Cycle wave 2 will likely be longer than 90 trading days and likely over 100 in length. Overall projected price targets see the most agreement with a bottom around 3850, however the range of potential bottoms are strong between 3571 and 4075. Wave 2 tends to retrace the movement of wave 1 between 19.89% - 76.95%, with most occurring around 24 - 46%. With Cycle wave 1 gaining 2626.76, a retracement of these magnitudes would have the following bottoms for Cycle wave 2: 19.89% puts the bottom at 4296.157 25% = 4161.93 30% = 4030.592 35% = 3899.254 40% = 3767.92 45% = 3636.578 Wave 1’s movement in relation to wave 2 is typically 1.299 to 5.02 times larger. On average wave 1 is 3.138 times larger than wave 2 which could see a bottom around 3981.53. PRIMARY WAVE A DATA SAYS… Primary wave A’s length typically accounts for 19 – 38% of the overall length of the wave it resides inside. This could make Cycle wave 2 between 91 to 176 days long. A strong reoccurring pocket in this dataset could make it 91 to 118 days long. Primary wave A’s move commonly accounts for 70.81 – 79% of the larger wave’s movement. This could see Cycle wave 2 ending between 3824.45 – 3927.40. PRIMARY WAVE B DATA SAYS… Primary wave B’s length typically accounts for 12 – 50% of the overall length of the wave it resides inside. This could make Cycle wave 2 between 46 to 178 days long. Two strong reoccurring pockets in this dataset could make it 106 to 108 days long or 168 to 178 days long. Primary wave B’s move commonly accounts for 32.91 – 61.2% of the larger wave’s movement. This could see Cycle wave 2 ending between 3230.50 – 3964.62. A strong reoccurring pocket is 3230.50 to 3283.22. The strength of this pocket cannot be ignored; however, it appears to be an outlier next to all of the other potential bottoms throughout this analysis. It would also require Intermediate wave 3 and wave 5 to drop many hundreds of points beyond typical behavior to achieve it. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 1 DATA SAYS… Intermediate wave 1 tends to contribute around 27% to the length of the larger wave it resides inside. This means Primary wave C could last 37 days. This aligns with Cycle wave 2 lasting 95 days. On a targeted scale, Intermediate waves ending in C1 typically account for 5 – 41% of the larger wave in which they reside. This would have Primary wave C lasting between 24 and 190 days. The median length of Primary wave C could last 33 (making Cycle wave 2 - 91) days while the average would be 41 (Cycle wave 2 would be 99). INTERMEDIATE WAVE 2 DATA SAYS… Intermediate wave 2 tends to contribute around 10% to the length of the larger wave. This mean Primary wave C could last 55 days and end by mid-June. On a targeted scale, Intermediate waves ending in C2 typically account for 3 – 12% of the larger wave in which they reside. This would have Primary wave C lasting between 50 and 188 days. The median could be 72 days while the average is 55. These results appear much higher than other data and is among the least reliable for this analysis. Similarly considered on the movement side. The bottom for Cycle wave 2 could be between 1831 - 4457 with an average around 4207 and a stronger data pocket between 3911-4227. Based on the other information throughout the modeling and this analysis, the low end is most likely in this case. CONCLUSION The likely future is contained in this analysis. Intermediate wave 3 will finish first and my target based on this data somewhere around May 4 and below 3968. Wave 4 will briefly move up before we finalize the bear market near the end of May. My current expectations is the low will be no lower than 3600, but we shall see once Intermediate waves 3 and 4 end. I hope you like this and feel free to follow me for more.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Will AKAM retest February lows?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on March 18, 2022 with a closing price of 116.2. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 115.23 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.488% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 5.983% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 11.105% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.75% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 9 trading bars; half occur within 17 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 26 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ:AKAMShort
by StockSignaler
2
Opendoor to test March 8 lowsBased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on March 17, 2022 with a closing price of 8.27. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 8.14 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 12.193% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 23.192% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 24.512% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 16 trading bars; half occur within 28 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 32 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ:OPENShort
by StockSignaler
2
Avis CAR heading down soon?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on March 18, 2022 with a closing price of 278.865. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 276.66 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.741% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 5.867% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 11.846% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.75% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 6 trading bars; half occur within 18 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 32 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ:CARShort
by StockSignaler
CDNA Likely Set To FallBased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on March 18, 2022 with a closing price of 39.7. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 38.81 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 6.683% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 12.867% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 17.423% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.75% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 16 trading bars; half occur within 23 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 32 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ:CDNAShort
by StockSignaler