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Bearcycle

Ichimoku: Bitcoin Bull Trend EndsFor years I have been publishing on Tradingview the Ichimoku Cloud trend analysis for Bitcoin. It is now time to update the analysis as a major event has occurred recently. Most analysts and students of Bitcoin price cycles agree that the bull trend is likely to end in 2025. Well, it is that year now. Optimists seem to have thought that it would be later in the year and slightly higher. I don't think that is going to be. Despite rumors of government Bitcoin bailouts (aka Strategic Bitcoin Reserve) each proposal has been struck down in state Congresses. I do not think it was a serious plan to begin with; just election hype. Back to what matters; the Technical Analysis. First, we will list the rules for Ichimoku Cloud Breakouts as I use them: Bullish Trend Begins Price is above the cloud Lagging Span (or Chikou in Japanese) is above the cloud Bearish Trend Begins Price is below the cloud Lagging Span is below the cloud When price is inside the cloud it is considered neutral. Only when the reverse of these conditions happen can we say that the trend has reversed. That means if we do not have both conditions the prior trend remains active. An example of when the original bullish trend of the current price cycle began was on January 12, 2023: Bitcoin has had many bearish cycles ranging from losing -78% to -90%. The true strength of this strategy is keeping investors out during Bitcoin's bearish cycles. The last example began December 4, 2021. With any trading strategy one should validate the results so I encourage everyone to do the work and test these signals. I have done this over the years to save readers' time. Here are the results if we began on the signal that occured April 13, 2011: When compared to buying 1 Bitcoin and "HODL" or never selling an investor would have more than 5 times the value and Bitcoin at the end of 14 years. Like any strategy this one has weaknesses. Because it is a trend following strategy it will have many incorrect signals during periods of time when price has very little movement. However, over the long run avoiding the long periods of large drawdowns will make the strategy outperform. My long term plan will be based on the past Bitcoin bearish cycles which have been between -75% and -94%. Somewhere starting at 25,000 I will begin looking to get bullish again as the cycle will continue. I remain heavily short NASDAQ:MSTR via Puts for that scheme to collapse entirely over the next 2 years. Thank you for reading and trade wisely!
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by norok
6
Alert: Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. Anticipates 8.67% DeclineTechnical Analysis Update: In correlation with the previous Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd post, here are the latest insights for riding the upcoming bear trend: 1. Currently, we are in a crucial 1-hour Key Supply Zone. 2. Typically, supply zones result in rejection. To confirm its effectiveness, we need to observe the 1-hour CHOCH/BOS. Alternatively, we can rely on 1-hour candle closes below the 9 EMA, but with tight stop losses. Keep in mind that the CHOCH/BOS has a higher success rate. You can adjust your stop loss above this level based on your risk management strategy. 3. Personally, I prefer riding the one-minute CHOCH/BOS with stop losses based on the respective Supply & Demand zones. However, this approach is risky without professional guidance. Feel free to ask for dynamic stop loss and target information in the comments or other platforms that suit your convenience. 4. As discussed in the previous post, the key breakout has changed due to recent trading activity. Although the current move may not be as smooth, the bears remain still dominant. I will provide updates on the new key breakout to capture a 12.7% bearish move. For now, focus on the current situation. 5. Exit strategy: If you notice a one-hour candle closing above the red supply zone shown in the picture, it is advisable to exit. However, such a scenario seems unlikely at the moment. Your support in sharing this post helps strengthen the network and encourages us to provide technical insights for our inclusive growth. Please follow us on our various platforms and share it with others to make a difference.
BSE:HALShort
by UnknownUnicorn14930146
What does a bull market look like?Sir John Templeton said: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” Pessimism: Following the 2008 crisis, the global economy was engulfed in a cloud of pessimism. Investors were gripped by fear and uncertainty as financial institutions crumbled, economies contracted, and unemployment soared. Stock markets experienced significant declines, and investors became cautious, bracing themselves for further turbulence. This initial stage of pessimism laid the foundation for the birth of a new bull market. Skepticism: As the dust settled and economies started to stabilize, skepticism took hold. Investors remained cautious, wary of another downturn and skeptical about the sustainability of the recovery. However, as central banks and governments implemented unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus measures QE1,2 & 3, confidence began to slowly seep back into the markets. Gradually, investors started to see signs of improvement, albeit with a sense of skepticism. Optimism: The bull market gained momentum as skepticism transformed into optimism. Economic indicators started showing signs of recovery, corporate earnings improved, and investor sentiment shifted towards a more positive outlook. This stage witnessed increased buying activity, as investors sought to capitalize on the upward momentum. As the market continued to rally, optimism became the prevailing sentiment, driving prices higher. Euphoria: The final stage of a bull market is characterized by euphoria, a state of extreme excitement and irrational exuberance. During this phase, investors become overly optimistic, disregarding potential risks and buying into the market frenzy. This euphoria is often fueled by widespread media coverage and the fear of missing out (FOMO). In this stage, valuations may become detached from underlying fundamentals, leading to excessive speculation and a heightened risk of a market correction. Conclusion: Since the last cycle low established during the 2008 crisis, we have witnessed the birth and evolution of a remarkable bull market. From the depths of pessimism and fear, it grew through skepticism and optimism, ultimately reaching a state of euphoria. It is essential for investors to recognize these stages and exercise caution, especially during the euphoric phase when markets may be prone to excessive speculation and unsustainable valuations. While bull markets provide ample opportunities for wealth creation, it is crucial to remain vigilant and focus on long-term investment strategies that align with underlying fundamentals. By understanding the cyclical nature of bull markets, investors can navigate the ever-changing landscape of financial markets with greater confidence and resilience. Reference of Nasdaq: E-mini Nasdaq-100 & Opt Minimum fluctuation 0.25 index points = $5.00 Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index & Opt Minimum fluctuation 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by konhow
BTCUSD Pullback to Neckline AccomplishedPrice action pulled back to the dynamic neckline resistance from the major Head and Shoulders in formation. From the chart pattern perspective, this phase can considered a important turn-point, which psychological terms can rise interests for the bearish-side and growth of bearishness of market. In addiction, retroactive Fibonacci retracement potential fractal suggest a 88.6% targe in decline to fill in confluence to the potential double-down correction from this H&S. Classical short setup. In addiction, a strong reaction by buyers HODLers can be expected in a potential bounce from the Anchored VWAP of 2018 low, which is a strong area of interest / equilibrium to fill. If the price breaks-down the demand, a new phase of bearish leg-downwards / collapse can plays-out, which will lead us to a capitulate.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by firmestudio
19
BTC First Time Above the Clouds on Daily since Bear StartedJust pointing out that we have broken above the Ichimoku clouds for the first time on the daily since falling below them in November, 2021, when the bear market began. This doesn't necessarily meant he bear is over. The last bull run, the cloud broke TWO times before we started the bull. However, in the 2018 crypto winter bear, which the current bear is much more resemblant of, the bear ended the first time we broke through the clouds. The first cycle, it took a couple times. This recovery looks very strong though relative to historic piercings of the clouds. Very torn right now on what will happen in the next little while. After 2 weeks, if we maintain our position above the cloud, as it turns green, then I believe we will be in another situation like 2018 when the first pierce above the cloud was indeed the end of the bear.
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by D-Rock_Anomaly
Once again posting this scenario.I posted this analysis a while ago and someone told me I was smoking crack. But when looking at the entire way down from last ATH we can see there has not been one actual counter rally, as in a rally above recovery range after a harsh drop. All we are seeing is one bearflag after another and this leads me to believe this is actually playing out. In addition to the massive rising wedge there is the Fib Time Zone tool prediciting another year of downward pressure. This is also confirmed by the Ichimoku lagging span on the monthly, which is suprisingly accurate at marking the start of previous bullcycles after major corrections. I have drawn out the distance from the moment that the lagging span (the yellow line that 'lags' behind the chart, mimicking the form of the trend) touches the actual trend with the horizontal yellow lines. It accurately marked the start of the next bull cycle twice in the past and when overlaying it for future projection it aligns with both the Fib Time Zone 1.618 (full cycle complete) and the Ichimoku cloud rising steeply, indicating sharp upward momentum if respected.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Odalisque
You must see the past to understand the futureI'm posting this to the followers of The SHARK... we must consider the history of wild advances and horrific declines to keep perspective along the way. Most don't realize profits because of the harsh corrections that you will see noted in the chart. Bull markets In Crypto have always been followed by 80% downturns that can last up to a year and sometimes two. You have two options. 1-BUY and Hold for the longterm and be ok seeing your account diminish and continue to add. This takes lots of emotional control and patience but has also proven to make the most money over time. 2- Know that you will not sell the top or buy the bottom perfectly. But with precision you can add to your holdings over time. Either way you play this game you must respect both the advancing and the decline cycles. The decline seasons are where the real money is made. It's the seasons nobody likes but the real traders do as we secretly stash piles and stay patient for the next cycle to come. That's always how and when the buying is done not here now. Nothing goes up forever without corrections. You also must consider that assets have a law of diminishing returns. Similar to going on a new rollercoaster.. you will never feel the same way you did the very first time your rode the ride. Bitcoin will not 638x or 621x ever again. The good news is we still have several more cycles for us to 5x left in my opinion. Keep perspective over the next couple weeks as you will start to see some glimpses of the "Euphoria phase" where you can start to believe some of the wild targets and things people say online that aren't seasoned traders. Every seller needs a buyer and you need to get out at the right time to protect your profits. If you are going to continue to Hold and keep buying make sure you don't buy too soon. Look at the chart as guide. You are waiting for the 80% correction before you start laddering in. The-Shark is here to help you. When you see the big moves this week remember to stay humble and keep your eyes focused on your personal plan to keep yourself prepared. Time and Patience always wins out in Crypto. We have about 1-4 months left on my watch for this bull cycle.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Bronson-TheShark
1
$265 A Share Before ThanksgivingExpect ROKU to hit $265 a share before Thanksgiving since it has fallen below support on the 15min chart. Currently during the last hour of trading a new resistance will be tested but I believe it will fail and we are in the start of a bear cycle. I have it hitting $265 tomorrow and that is a conservative number. Could go lower, tomorrow I will decide if I sell out or hold another week. I would like to see it fall below support on a higher scale. This is a great start though and could continue for quite some time. Comment your thoughts below, should I hold past Thanksgiving? Or should I take a small profit and run? I respond to every users comment and love hearing from you guys so don't be shy. Also smash the like button if you are a ROKU short.
NASDAQ:ROKUShort
by Myantman101
6
Has Bitcoin entered the "Despair" stage?Following Bitcoin's aggressive selling of the past weeks that caused near 50% in losses, it is time to look at Jean-Paul Rodrigue's Stages of a Bubble. This had to be customized on Bitcoin's state of the 2018 correction. It doesn't exactly follow the classic bubble price action as the "Fear" and "Capitulation" stages lasted longer on a downward consolidation technically applied on a Falling Wedge. It appears that the bear market has entered the "Despair" stage and based on this study that we conducted some time ago (), the "Return to the mean" will be a lengthy process, unlike Jean-Paul Rodrigue's classic model. We still have the bottom priced within 2,600 - 2,800. Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by InvestingScope
53
Time to short before next BTC surge! Nobody wants Eth for Xmass chart analysis - Trend - Bear 26 out 28 three day Candles RED - 3 months non stop price is going down. A recent rejection at Resistance which has happened multiple time consistently over last few months in a few defined descending channel Overall Market sentiment Unnecessary hardfork splitting chain, multiple bugs, no apps except the notoriously failed DAO and notoriously delayed REP. The fundamentals are poor, will need constant good news & a working chain long term to reverse market sentiment. Ethereum has been in free fall for sometime. it recently traded at $5.88 to the ETH, a 7 month low. that was from its previous level of $12 at the end of October 2016 to nearly half of that as of Dec. 6, 2016. Since china meetup 3 months ago where price was at 2400 recent low was 750 with the BTC ratio taking the biggest hammering, when btc has gone down or been sideways Eth has continued to go down in BTC ratio. There was a big short squeeze at the bottom with bigger short positions from months back taking profits & thin book cause a fomo with some speculators buying back in. Why is it falling ? at least four hardforks or more, lost count. which have left investors impatient and exhausted. it started forking at the DAO hack & never stopped. The proverbial last straw seems to be November’s accidental hardfork, which resulted in Ethereum’s two main clients, Parity and Geth, losing consensus. Market sentiment is very bear. there is no reason for that to change anytime soon.
Short
by Greenhill
2