NZDCAD sell setupOANDA:NZDCAD Overall bias on NZDCAD is bearish, entry is based on the 4H bearish engulfing at the Daily AOI around 0.80976
Bearishbias
CADJPY SELL SETUPOANDA:CADJPY Overall bias on CADJPPY is bearish. The previous daily candlestick closed below the daily AOI. Price is making a retest at the daily AOI, currently waiting for an entry signal (bearish engulfing) on the 4H or 1H timeframe to go bearish on CADJPY
NZDUSD SELL SETUPOANDA:NZDUSD My overall bias on NAZDUSD is bearish, 4H structure is bearish with it making a retest at the Daily AOI (Area of Interest) and rejecting with a bearish engulfing variation patterning which was my confirmation to go short on NZDUSD
EURJPY SELL IDEAOANDA:EURJPY
Overall bias on EURJPY is bearish, thus I am looking for sells. Price just made a retest at the Daily AOI, and what I am looking for next is a bearish engulfing candlestick on the 4H timeframe to go short on this pair
EURUSD-TIME FOR REVERSAL- SWING TRADEReversal Opportunity Amid a Bearish Bias
FX:EURUSD
The EUR/USD is showing potential for a reversal, although the overall probabilities remain bearish. This setup offers an opportunity with a possible 3RR.
Trade Management:
Today's FED meeting could cause sharp and unexpected market movements. It’s crucial to keep a tight SL to protect against liquidity hunts, especially near the November PML wick. The TP is set at the bearish FVA, but if the price reaches this area, it could signal a higher probability of continued upside.
Stay cautious and adapt to market conditions. Manage your risk and remember: capital preservation comes first.
USDJPY Analysis for 24/10/2024: A Slightly Bearish Bias AheadAs we analyze the USDJPY currency pair on October 24, 2024, current market conditions and fundamental factors suggest a slightly bearish bias. This article delves into the key drivers influencing this outlook, allowing traders to make informed decisions in this dynamic market environment.
Current Market Conditions
The USDJPY pair has shown a mixed performance recently, with fluctuations influenced by both U.S. economic data and developments in Japan. Traders are closely watching for signals that could dictate the pair’s movement, particularly as we approach critical economic indicators.
Key Fundamental Drivers
1. U.S. Economic Data: Recent economic data from the U.S. has been a mixed bag. While there have been positive signs in job growth and consumer spending, inflation remains a concern. The Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates continues to be cautious, signaling that any aggressive rate hikes may not be imminent. This dovish sentiment can weigh on the U.S. dollar, creating a bearish outlook for USDJPY.
2. Japanese Economic Performance: Japan's economy is showing signs of resilience, with recent data indicating stronger-than-expected growth. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained its accommodative monetary policy, but there are discussions about potential adjustments in response to rising inflation. Should the BoJ signal a shift towards tightening, this could support the Japanese yen and contribute to a bearish trend in USDJPY.
3. Geopolitical Factors: Ongoing geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty can lead to safe-haven buying of the yen. Any escalation in conflicts or adverse developments in trade relations may strengthen the yen further, enhancing its appeal against the U.S. dollar.
4. Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators: Sentiment in the forex market is essential. Currently, there is cautious optimism among traders regarding the yen due to the previously mentioned economic performance indicators. Additionally, technical analysis reveals that USDJPY is nearing resistance levels, suggesting a potential reversal. If the pair fails to breach these levels, it may retreat, reinforcing a bearish bias.
Conclusion
Considering the current fundamental factors and market conditions, the outlook for USDJPY remains slightly bearish for today. Traders should monitor upcoming U.S. economic data releases and any announcements from the Bank of Japan that could further impact this currency pair.
Keywords:
USDJPY analysis, bearish bias, forex market, U.S. economic data, Bank of Japan, Japanese yen, geopolitical tensions, market sentiment, technical analysis.
USDJPY Slightly Bearish Bias on October 22, 2024 !!USDJPY Slightly Bearish Bias on October 22, 2024: Key Drivers and Analysis
As of October 22, 2024, the USDJPY currency pair is exhibiting a slightly bearish bias based on the latest market conditions and fundamental factors. In this article, we’ll break down the key drivers that could contribute to this potential weakness in the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY) and provide insights for traders looking to capitalize on these movements.
1. Dovish Federal Reserve Outlook Weakens USD
The US Dollar has been losing momentum in recent sessions due to a shift in market sentiment around the future path of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Recent economic data out of the US, including softer-than-expected retail sales and a slowdown in the housing market, have led traders to anticipate a more dovish approach from the Fed.
Despite persistent inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve has signaled that it may pause rate hikes, which is reducing demand for the USD. This pause in tightening is making the USDJPY pair more vulnerable to downside risks, especially as traders shift to safer assets like the JPY in the face of rising uncertainty in global markets.
2. Bank of Japan's Potential Policy Shift
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has remained committed to its ultra-loose monetary policy for years, but there are signs that it may be reconsidering its stance. Speculation has grown that the BoJ might tweak its yield curve control (YCC) program or adjust its negative interest rates policy in the near future. Even though no official changes have been announced, the potential for a more hawkish policy shift is providing underlying support to the JPY.
Investors are also pricing in the possibility that inflationary pressures in Japan could push the BoJ toward policy normalization, which would make the JPY more attractive relative to the USD.
3. Safe-Haven Demand for JPY Amid Global Uncertainty
The Japanese Yen is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven currency, meaning that it tends to gain strength during periods of global uncertainty. Current geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, and concerns over global economic slowdown are driving risk aversion in the markets. This sentiment is boosting demand for safe-haven assets, including the JPY, while pressuring the USDJPY pair lower.
Furthermore, ongoing concerns about China's economic recovery and lingering trade tensions between the US and other major economies are also contributing to increased risk-off sentiment, which favors the Yen over the Dollar.
4. Diverging Economic Data Between the US and Japan
While the US economy has been showing signs of weakness, with disappointing retail sales and housing market reports, Japan’s latest GDP data surprised to the upside. The Japanese economy grew faster than expected in the last quarter, reinforcing the view that the country is starting to recover from its prolonged period of stagnation. This stronger economic outlook for Japan is providing additional tailwinds for the Yen.
In contrast, US data continues to reflect a potential slowdown, leading traders to rethink their bullish stance on the USD. The combination of weaker economic performance in the US and stronger-than-expected growth in Japan is tilting the balance toward a bearish USDJPY outlook.
5. Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment
From a technical perspective, the USDJPY pair has recently tested key resistance levels around 150.00 but failed to break higher, suggesting that a reversal may be underway. The pair is now trading closer to 148.50, with the potential to move lower if further downside pressure builds. Traders are watching for a break below the 148.00 support level, which could signal additional bearish momentum.
Market sentiment, as indicated by the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, shows a slight increase in speculative short positions on the USDJPY pair, reflecting the broader expectation of near-term weakness in the USD.
6. Yen Intervention Concerns
Another factor adding to the bearish bias for USDJPY is the potential for Japanese government intervention. In the past, Japan’s Ministry of Finance has intervened in the currency markets to support the Yen when it experiences excessive weakness. With USDJPY approaching levels that could trigger intervention, traders are cautious about pushing the pair higher, which is contributing to the pair’s bearish momentum.
The Japanese authorities have issued warnings in recent weeks about excessive volatility in the Yen, and this potential intervention risk is helping to keep USDJPY in check.
Conclusion: USDJPY Outlook for October 22, 2024
In conclusion, the USDJPY pair is expected to maintain a slightly bearish bias today due to several key factors, including the dovish Federal Reserve outlook, potential Bank of Japan policy shifts, and rising safe-haven demand for the Yen. The divergence in economic data between the US and Japan, coupled with technical indicators signaling downside potential, further strengthens the case for a weaker USDJPY pair in today’s trading session.
Traders should keep a close eye on upcoming economic reports from both the US and Japan, as well as any potential intervention from Japanese authorities, which could impact the pair’s trajectory. For those trading forex, today’s market environment may present opportunities to capitalize on short positions in USDJPY.
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Ethereum Closes with 10% Loss, Testing Key Support at $2,400Market Update:
Ethereum had a challenging week, closing with a 10% loss, briefly dipping below $2,400.
ETH is now attempting to reconfirm $2,400 as support after wiping out all gains from September, turning market bias bearish.
Technical Outlook:
Ethereum is on the verge of making a lower low, and the coming days are crucial for the remainder of the month.
If weakness persists, the price could drop to $2,200, but if buyers return, a recovery towards $2,500 is possible.
#Ethereum #ETH #CryptoMarket #BearishBias #PriceAction #SupportLevels #ETHUpdate
Bearish Bias Amid Current Market Conditions on 04/10/2024 on EU.EUR/USD Analysis: Bearish Bias Amid Current Market Conditions on 04/10/2024
The EUR/USD currency pair remains under pressure today, displaying a potential bearish bias as it reacts to a variety of fundamental factors. Given the recent economic data releases, geopolitical tensions, and shifts in central bank policy expectations, traders and analysts alike are paying close attention to the euro's response to the ongoing USD strength. Below, I outline the key drivers influencing this potential downward movement and assess why EUR/USD could sustain a bearish outlook in today's market.
1. Strengthening US Dollar Amid Robust Economic Data
The USD continues to strengthen, supported by a robust US economic backdrop. Recent reports on US employment data, consumer spending, and manufacturing growth have exceeded expectations, suggesting sustained resilience in the American economy. This string of positive data adds further weight to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rates, which has been a key factor driving USD demand. For EUR/USD, this USD strength puts downward pressure on the pair as investors seek USD exposure.
2. ECB's Cautious Approach to Rate Hikes
In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted a more cautious tone in its recent policy communications. With slowing inflation in some Eurozone regions and subdued growth forecasts, ECB officials have hinted that the cycle of aggressive rate hikes may be nearing an end. This dovish stance from the ECB decreases the attractiveness of the euro in the EUR/USD pair as markets adjust to lower expectations of rate hikes in Europe, adding to bearish sentiment.
3. Geopolitical Risks Impacting Euro Sentiment
Geopolitical concerns are another significant factor influencing the EUR/USD pair. Energy dependency and rising costs within the Eurozone, exacerbated by ongoing geopolitical tensions, add to the challenges facing the euro. As these concerns heighten risk aversion, market participants are inclined to favor the safer USD over the euro, further contributing to the bearish outlook on EUR/USD.
4. Technical Indicators Signal Downward Momentum
Technical analysis supports the fundamental view of a bearish bias for EUR/USD today. The currency pair has recently broken through key support levels, and technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and moving averages are reflecting continued downward pressure. The current trend, coupled with these bearish technical indicators, suggests further declines may be on the horizon.
Conclusion: Bearish Bias for EUR/USD on 04/10/2024
In conclusion, today’s EUR/USD analysis reflects a bearish bias based on robust US economic performance, a cautious ECB, geopolitical factors, and technical indicators that support downward momentum. As market participants remain focused on these driving factors, EUR/USD is likely to encounter increased selling pressure, favoring a bearish outlook. Traders should continue monitoring these developments as they impact EUR/USD dynamics throughout the day.
Keywords:
EUR/USD analysis, bearish bias, US Dollar strength, Federal Reserve hawkish stance, European Central Bank rate hike, euro sentiment, EUR/USD technical analysis, EUR/USD 04/10/2024, EUR/USD bearish today, forex trading, forex market analysis.
A Slightly Bearish Bias Anticipated Today 01/10/2024 on EURUSD.EURUSD Analysis for 01/10/2024: A Slightly Bearish Bias Anticipated
As we step into the month of October, EURUSD continues to exhibit a slightly bearish bias, influenced by the ongoing fundamental factors and current market conditions. In this article, we will explore key drivers behind this sentiment, giving you the insights needed to navigate today’s forex market.
Key Drivers Behind EURUSD Bearish Bias
1. Diverging Central Bank Policies
One of the primary factors weighing on EURUSD is the diverging monetary policies between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). The ECB has recently indicated a more dovish tone, signaling that it may hold off on further rate hikes in the coming months due to slowing economic growth in the Eurozone. In contrast, the Fed’s hawkish stance on inflation continues to support the U.S. dollar, pressuring the euro lower.
2. Eurozone Economic Weakness
The Eurozone economy remains fragile, with disappointing data releases pointing to continued weakness. Recent Manufacturing PMI data came in below expectations, indicating a contraction in industrial activity. This slowdown is particularly concerning as the region faces challenges from rising energy prices and geopolitical tensions, which are hurting consumer and business confidence. As these factors persist, EURUSD is likely to struggle to find upside momentum.
3. U.S. Economic Resilience
On the other hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, supported by strong labor market data and steady consumer spending. The Fed’s commitment to keeping inflation in check further strengthens the U.S. dollar, adding pressure on EURUSD. As long as the U.S. economy continues to outperform the Eurozone, we expect this currency pair to maintain its bearish bias.
4. Interest Rate Differentials
The widening interest rate differentials between the U.S. and Eurozone play a significant role in driving the bearish outlook for EURUSD. Higher U.S. bond yields are attracting global investors, further boosting demand for the dollar. This interest rate disparity is likely to keep EURUSD on a downward trajectory, especially if the Fed remains committed to its inflation control measures.
5. Geopolitical Concerns in Europe
Geopolitical uncertainty in Europe, particularly the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, continues to weigh heavily on the euro. The instability in the region, coupled with the energy crisis affecting major economies like Germany and France, has heightened concerns about the Eurozone’s economic outlook. These geopolitical factors create an unfavorable environment for the euro, contributing to EURUSD's bearish bias.
Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, EURUSD is hovering near key support levels, with the 1.0600 area being a critical zone to watch. A break below this level could signal further downside pressure, pushing the pair towards 1.0500. Short-term resistance is seen around 1.0700, and any rally is likely to be capped unless there is a significant shift in fundamental drivers.
Conclusion: EURUSD Bearish Sentiment Likely to Persist
In summary, EURUSD is expected to maintain a slightly bearish bias today, driven by the combination of weak Eurozone economic data, diverging monetary policies, and a strong U.S. dollar. Traders should remain cautious as the pair tests key support levels, with potential downside risks still looming. For those looking to trade this pair, it’s important to keep an eye on U.S. and Eurozone data releases as they may offer further insight into market sentiment.
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EURUSD analysis, bearish bias, Euro to USD forecast, forex trading EURUSD, EURUSD technical outlook, central bank policies, Eurozone economy, Federal Reserve impact, U.S. dollar strength, EURUSD key levels, EURUSD trend today.
USDCHF Reaffirms Bearish Bias after Timid SNB & US PCEThe Swiss National Bank was the first major institution to shift to monetary easing and remains at the forefront after its third consecutive rate cut this week. However, it stuck with the small 0.25% increments, which are meager compared to the Fed’s jumbo 0.5% pivot and aggressive easing path. Furthermore, with rates already at 1%, the SNB easing runway may not be very long. Today’s US inflation figures favor the Fed’s dovishness, as headline PCE decelerated to 2.2% and the lowest in more than three years. These dynamics weigh on the pair and reaffirm the bearish below the EMA200. This sustains risk for further losses below 0.8333 and levels not seen since at least 2015, although sustained weakness below it is hard.
Core PCE ticked up to 2.7% y/y and the Fed’s frontloading may fuel further persistence in price pressures and lead to fewer cuts later on. On the Swiss front, policymakers may not be able to avoid larger rate cuts. Inflation dropped to 1.1% in August and they expect further deceleration to 0.6% next year, while the elevated Franc harms exports and ads to the pressure for bigger policy moves and/or FX intervention. Despite the post-pandemic shift, the SNB has generally sought to keep the Swiss Franc from appreciating and has kept rates below zero for most of the past ten years.
As a result, we can see another effort surpass the EMA200 and pause the bearish bias. This would bring the 38.2% Fibonacci of the May-September slump into the spotlight, but we are cautious around the ascending prospects as the upside looks unfriendly.
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
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EURUSD Analysis: Anticipating a Slight Bearish Bias Towards 1.1!EURUSD Analysis: Anticipating a Slight Bearish Bias Towards 1.10000 (24/09/2024)
As we analyze the EURUSD pair this week, a slight bearish bias appears probable, with a target near the pivotal level of 1.10000. Key drivers for this outlook include the recent economic data releases, central bank policies, and market sentiment.
1. Economic Data:
Recent Eurozone economic indicators have shown mixed results, with weak manufacturing PMI figures suggesting slowing growth. Conversely, US economic data, particularly strong job numbers and retail sales, point to a robust economy, potentially strengthening the dollar.
2. Central Bank Divergence:
The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to maintain a dovish stance amid economic uncertainties, while the Federal Reserve appears committed to a tighter monetary policy. This divergence could exert downward pressure on the euro.
3. Market Sentiment:
Increased risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions may lead investors to favor safe-haven currencies like the USD, further supporting the bearish outlook for EURUSD.
In conclusion, the combination of economic fundamentals, central bank policies, and market sentiment suggests that EURUSD may trend towards 1.10000 this week. Traders should stay alert for potential market shifts and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Keywords: EURUSD analysis, bearish bias, economic data, central bank policy, ECB, Fed, market sentiment, forex trading, trading strategies, 1.10000 target.
EURGBP Bearish Bias Reaffirmed after UK CPI but BoE LoomsThe Bank of England lowered rates last month, for the first time in four years, joining major peers in their shift to less restrictive monetary settings. However, officials adopted a cautious and non-committal approach on further easing, as they remain wary of inflation which they expect to rise further this year. Today’s inflation report will likely strengthen the BoE’s apprehension, as CPI stayed above the 2% target, while core accelerated to 3.6% y/y in August.
EURGPB faces pushback as a result, at the critical resistance cluster provided by the EMA200 (black line) and the 23.6% Fibonacci of the August fall. Bearish bias is intact below that level, sustaining risk for further losses towards and beyond 0.8381. The monetary policy differential is unfavorable for the pair, as the ECB has already slashed rates twice this year and at least one more cut is expected this year.
The Bank of England will have a hard time moving again on Wednesday, but pressure for faster easing pace is likely to increase. Wage growth moderated substantially and this can allow greater tolerance for slower return of inflation to target, while the economy remains fragile, despite exiting its brief recession.
EUR/GBP has contained its fall in recent weeks and a break above the aforementioned resistance cluster would pause the bearish bias and provide the launching pad for taking out the 38.2% Fibonacci. Greater recovery however towards the 61.8% levels looks hard under current policy dynamics.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 6 2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”) (www.fxcm.com):
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
DJI Weekly Rising Narrowing WedgeDow Jones Industrial Average has not shown many signs of slowing in its growth.
Here is a bearish biased shape playing out on the weekly chart in the form of a rising narrowing wedge.
Strictly PA, strictly structure. Keep an eye on this.
Looking for a Macro correction to reach to the .236 or the .382 on a corrective movement.
This is a follow up to a macro long idea on the DJI posted back in March 25th 2023.
NFA
Do your own DD
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DJT falls on stratospheric valuations SHORTDJT, the Trump media company, had a massive run up after the DWAC merger only to fade and
fall with the SEC filing showing minimalistic revenue and negative earnings. It moved up in
meme fashion but is now falling as fundamentals come to light. In five months the namesake
will be able to sell if there is any remaining value. In the meanwhile, the board will likely
refuse an early sell permission because that would like cause a " long squeeze". DJT is a good
short right now no matter the locate and carry fees which are very high. I was long DWAC
and am now short DJT using the profits from the merger volatility. Selling volumes are rising
showing the longs are beginning to get squeezed. The relative trend indicator shows
a strong move down.
SPY correction continues & another earnings season begins SHORTSPY on a 120 minute chart uptrended from October into late March. A standard Fibonacci
retracement for this trend down could take it down to the 475 range or about another 10%.
Current price is under the daily SMA 50 ( blue line) at 495 and could continue to fall into the
SMA 100 ( green line) which is confluent with the Fibonacci retracement level. Deep support of
the daily SMA200 ( red line) representing more than a 50% retracement is at the 450 zone.
Megacap technology earnings upcoming may lead the way down or cause a consolidation for
a reversal. April will likely be a big red month. April showers bring May flowers?
Nasdaq sell ideaOANDA:NAS100USD
Retest at 17 438 for a potential move to the downside after price broke bullish structure on the 1h.
EURUSD SELL SETUPFX:EURUSD
A break below 1.08940 Daily support has simultaneously broken bullish structure on the 1h, 4h and daily timeframes changing my bias to a bearish bias. a retest back to the 1.08940 area as daily resistance and a 4h bearish engulfing candlestick is enough confluence/confirmation to short EURUSD.
GBPCAD SELL ANALYSISFX:GBPCAD
Overall structure is bearish based of the weekly, 4h and 1h timeframe solidifying my bearish bias. price broke below 1.69858 daily support and made a retest as resistance. a bearish engulfing candlestick on the 1H was my entry candle to go bearish on GBPCAD
EURUSD SELL SETUPFX:EURUSD
Overall structure based on the weekly, daily 4h and 1h is bearish. Price closed below 1.08368 4h support and made a retest as resistance with a bullish engulfing candlestick being an entry confirmation to continue sell bias
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Bearish Bias as Price Approaches Key📉 The GBP/USD currency pair is currently showing a bearish bias as it approaches a key support level at 1.2100. 📊 Technical analysis suggests that a pattern breakout may expose the key 1.2000 level, indicating further downside potential. 💰 Our trading opportunity is to sell at the current level of 1.2098, with a take profit target of 1.20421 and a stop loss at 1.22779.
Hashtags: #GBPUSD #TechnicalAnalysis #BearishBias #SupportLevel #TradingOpportunity #TakeProfit #StopLoss
BTC/USDT (Bearish Bias)Short Bias on BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Entry: 16570
SL: 16832
TP1: 16255.3
TP2: 15888.5
BTC is RN clearly dominated by the market bears.
The chart pattern breakout is another indication of the bearish move.
It seems like BTC RN retesting the TL.
Trade your levels accordingly.
Your feedback would be appreciated.
Best of luck!
S&P500Possible after the gap being filled, that we might look into a Bearish Bias next week Monday. Happy weekend all!
