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Bearrally

Ethereum's Complex Correction: Short-Term vs Long-TermThe cryptocurrency market has experienced significant volatility, and Ethereum (ETH) is no exception. Following a complex correction, Ethereum's current price movement suggests that the bottom may not yet be in sight. In this update, I will dig into the ongoing correction, explore Ethereum's short-term outlook, discuss the potential for a rally, and consider its long-term investment prospects. Understanding the Correction Several months ago, I predicted that Ethereum would reach its peak somewhere between $2000 and $2500. While this prediction still holds potential, it appears that the upside momentum is currently favoring altcoins rather than Ethereum itself. Observing the chart, we can identify a large ABC correction within a WXY pattern, likely completing a larger wave 4. I believe ETHUSD will find a bottom in the coming weeks, possibly within 3-4 weeks, before commencing a rally toward the end of the year. Caution in the Bullish Environment As the market sentiment turns bullish, it is crucial to exercise caution. Historically, this has been a turning point, signaling a potential reversal in market direction. Remain vigilant during this period, as the market may swiftly transition into a bearish phase in 2024 , potentially pushing Ethereum to new lows, at least compared to recent years. While it is too early to make concrete predictions, the possibility of Ethereum dropping below $1000 cannot be disregarded. Long-Term Price Targets and Dollar Cost Averaging Despite the short-term uncertainties, Ethereum's long-term price targets remain bullish. Dollar cost averaging into cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Bitcoin for longer-term investments is not a bad strategy to employ. In the coming decade, Ethereum could potentially reach price levels around $20,000, particularly if negative events impact the US Dollar. A collapse in the dollar index tends to drive appreciation in the value of cryptocurrencies and other assets. Short-Term Considerations and Bitcoin Dominance In addition to the outlined chart analysis, it is important to monitor Bitcoin Dominance in the short term. The dominance level breaking through 50-52% suggests that Bitcoin, as the market leader, may regain its dominance. This shift could impact the overall performance and market sentiment for Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. Ethereum's recent correction has introduced short-term risks and complexities, making it challenging to determine an immediate bottom. While a rally into the end of the year is possible, be cautious as market dynamics can change rapidly. For long-term investments, dollar cost averaging into Ethereum and Bitcoin is a prudent strategy, considering the potential for substantial price appreciation. However, investors should, as always, stay informed about global economic factors, particularly the US Dollar, as they may influence the cryptocurrency market as a whole. By closely monitoring market trends, employing risk management strategies, and keeping a long-term perspective, investors can navigate the complex landscape of Ethereum and position themselves for potential gains in the evolving cryptocurrency market.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by bitdoctor
1
Biggest drop for XRP from Huge Rejection This will be the biggest bull trap since the last bullrun back in 2017. Right now met the strongest important Resistance into 0.50- Mid 0.54 area, should expect the big drop to happen to meet back towards down 0.45-0.30 area for a short retrace, and drop more continuously. XRP bullrun won’t begin 2 months before the bitcoin halving of april 2024 which bitcoin halving will be happening. XRP bottom target; 0.1500-0.1700 area. XRP bullrun Target 560$ Experts predict that XRP will hit 100K until bullrun starts.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDShort
by JoyBoyVegae
3
MKC MAR75/FEB65 DIAGONAL PUTBEAR RALLY SET UP I've had MKC on my watchlist for about a week now. ON January 18th, the 20 day crossed the 50 day and made a new swing low on January 20th. Since then, it had a small bear rally back to prior support resistance of 79.09ish which it hit on the 24th. On the 25th, it traded below the previous day's low, however I waited one more day because I didn't want to get into this before earnings. With the gap down today, I executed my trade as there could be more down side to come based on the technicals. I won't have any stops since I'm set up for max loss and risking less than 2% of my portfolio. I drew a downward trendline/channel from the high of March 2022. On the hour chart, it recognized this channel from about April 20th 2022, to about the middle of May before it sold off. This only has monthly contracts. I was originally going to select the 70 strike, but my idea is that it falls back into this downward channel within the next three weeks to reach my 65 target by the 17th of February. Position management strategies when the stock goes lower If this goes lower below my 65 target, I'll close out the entire combo and move on to my next trade. Position management strategies when the stock goes sideways If this goes sideways, I'll let my 65 strike expire and hang on to my 75 strike until March until it reaches my 65 target. Position management strategies when the stock goes higher If this goes higher, I'll let it all expire worthless since I'm set up for max loss. Position management strategy at expiration Come February 17th, if this is still above my 65 target, I'll hang on to my 75 strike until it does reach my 65 target. If we're at 65 or below 65 come the 17th, I'll close out the entire combo.
NYSE:MKCShort
by MMOTA_
Bear Bounce in META May Push Further before Downtrend ContinuesPrimary Chart: Daily Time Frame, 8-D and 21-D EMAs, Long-Term Fibonacci Levels (Retracements of META's Entire Range), Uptrend from Nov. 4, 2022 Low SUMMARY: META remains in a severe downtrend since its all-time high in September 2021. The primary-degree trendline remains unbroken and in effect. A shorter down trendline for most of 2022 has been broken coinciding with its recent upside price action. META is experiencing a corrective rally, also known as a bear bounce (until proven otherwise). Bollinger Bands support the idea of further upside with the mouth of the bands expanding, and price walking the bands to the upside. The Donchian Channels also show that price is reaching multi-month highs, and its 21-period range is expanding as price pushes higher. Target 1 lies at $142. Target 2 is $149. Target 3 is $157-$158. Each target requires that price reach and hold the prior target on a daily close. Each target is a condition precedent for the next target's viability. Invalidation levels include the uptrend line from November 4, 2022 lows as well as major support levels at $112 (key structural low), $115-$116 (volume profile). META began its decline much earlier than the broader indices. It peaked at an ATH on September 1, 2021, while SPX peaked on January 4, 2022. It has appeared to lead indices by a few months in this bear market. The long-term uptrend line from 2012 more than a decade ago was decisively broken in early 2022. This suggests that it may take a while for META to begin carving out a new uptrend line at a less steep angle based on whatever bear-market lows are formed—whether that be the November 4, 2022 low or a (likely) new low in 2023. Supplementary Chart A: Monthly Chart of META with Decade-Long Upward Trendline The bear-market downtrend lines are shown on Supplementary Chart B. The pink line on the Primary Chart reflects the primary-degree of trend since the all-time high in mid-2022. That line has not been broken, and price remains well below it. The dark-blue line is a shorter trendline that lasts for most of 2022. It was broken to the upside in early December 2022. This is no surprise. Steeper trendlines are less sustainable, and often end up being replaced by their less steep counterparts. The break of the dark-blue line is not an end to the bear market, but it does signal a short-term shift that coincides with the sideways to higher corrective rally taking place. Supplementary Chart B: Trendlines within META's Current Bear Market In this bear market, META made its most recent low on November 4, 2022. An uptrend drawn from that low is drawn (pink line on Primary Chart above). META's short-term EMAs show that it has been rallying in earnest since this November 4 low. Note the slope of the 8-D EMA and the 21-D EMA. While these are simple indicators, sometimes their simplicity can cause some to miss the power of their message—indicating the short-term trend. The short-term trend remains positive, with price finding support at these EMAs. When price falls below the 21-D EMA, it quickly rises to reclaim it. See Primary Chart. The Bollinger Bands also reflect the upward rally, which should be deemed corrective until proven otherwise. The Bollinger Bands are widening at the mouth, and when price pushes through the bands to exhaustion levels (set at 2 standard deviations on this daily chart), it falls back but quickly pushes back into the bands. Yes, the CPI could end this prematurely, but technical analysis suggests this stock has further to run before it resumes its longer-term downtrend. Supplementary Chart C: Bollinger Bands Similar to the Bollinger Bands, the Donchian Channels also reflect an increase in volatility to the upside. Price is pushing new multi-month highs, which is easily seen using this indicator. As the upper band of the Donchian presses higher with price touching it, that reflects new 21-trading-day highs. But a quick glance at the chart below shows that the highs exceed all highs since late October lows. The October 2022 highs are the ones that will likely be taken out next if the rally continues. Supplementary Chart D: Donchian Channels Major support lies at $112, and $115-$116. In addition, the upward TL can easily be used as an invalidation level for any short-term bullish trades. It can also be used as confirmation for any shorts that wish to enter when the bounce exhausts. Targets are based on the measured-move concept and Fibonacci proportions. Target 1 is $142. That is the 150-day SMA. Target 2 is $149. This level is the measured move area where wave A (or wave W) equals wave C (or wave Y) from the lows. Target 3 is $157-$158. Target 3 is a confluence of levels including (i) the 1.272 extension of first leg of this rally projected from the start of the second leg, (ii) the .618 retracement of META's entire price range going back to the start of data on the chart, and (iii) the 200-day SMA based on today's date, which lies at $158. The bounce idea is invalidated if price falls below $112-$116. It may also be invalidated (depending on several factors) if price breaks below the pink uptrend line from November 4, 2022 lows. Lastly, to quickly and effortlessly see the major support (supply zone) for the current corrective rally, see the blue rectangle below. Breaking this level should signal the next leg lower is underway in the primary-degree downtrend. Supplementary Chart E: Support / Supply Zone Thanks for reading, and Happy New Year! May your trades and risk-management work out very well this year. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:META
by SquishTrade
27
BTC May Push Higher Before Lower AgainBTCUSD BITSTAMP:BTCUSD has traded in a choppy fashion for some time. Since mid-June 2022, it has traded modestly downward (downward and sideways) relative to the steep downtrend it experienced from the November 2021 all-time high to the June 2022 lows. This author has refrained from posting on crypto for a while given the choppy and uncertain nature of the space. Supplementary Chart A: BTC's Weekly Chart with Yellow Box Showing Choppy, Sideways to Modestly Downward Price Action for the Last Half Year But BTC looks to be pushing back to downtrend resistance. This will be a make-or-break time for BTC if the downtrend resistance can be reached. Bears will want to short, and intelligent bears will want to define their risk at the downtrend resistance levels—either the downtrend line, a key Fibonacci cluster, or the prior swing high (where the bluish-teal rectangle is placed on the Primary Chart). BTC's downtrend remains intact on a log chart. The burden is on the bulls to break that downtrend structure, convert it to a sideways or neutral trend, that may base for some time, and then refashion the structure in to a series of higher lows and higher highs (an uptrend) BTC may reach the following levels, which will not be considered "corrective-rally targets" given that the downtrend seems ready to resume at any time. So perhaps consider these as levels to watch: (1) $19,183.29, which is the .618 retracement of the most recent leg of decline, to $19,339.19, which is the measured-move area (a 1.00 Fib projection of the first leg of the bounce from the start of the second leg) and $19,500, which is the 200-day SMA (magenta); (2) $20,190 to $20,262, which zone includes the .786 Fibonacci retracement and the 1.272 projection of first wave off the November 2022 lows (projected from the start of the second wave); and (3) $21,300 to $21,478, which zone lies at the prior swing high and the downtrend line resistance. To determine whether this post is successful, price must fail at one of the levels presented above, and resume the downtrend with a leg lower that breaks the uptrend line from November 21, 2022. This outcome will serve as the standard / criterion for evaluating this idea later on. Of course, the price paths shown on the primary chart are hypothetical only, no one knows exactly which path price will take. Regardless of one's view (bullish or bearish or neutral) the simple uptrend line from November 21, 2022, lows guides this corrective bounce. When that is broken, expect impulsive movement lower again. No one knows with certainty whether the bear market is over in crypto and equities. Traders and chart watchers can simply make their best guess based on the probabilities presented by the patterns and technical analysis. Markets will sometimes violate the patterns and move in a manner that confounds the indicators. That is why risk management is so vitally important for traders. Thank you for reading, and Happy New Year / Feliz Año Nuevo! ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SquishTrade
26
Retrace complete/Further downI kept seeing everyone thinks bitcoin just bottomed.. ( no not quite yet) this what happens people get too greedy. As bear market still going and still on the move, Feds are still increasing terminal rates and interest rates because the inflation still remained high and not cooling down enough; big happens the Feds will get aggressive and too aggressive until ceiling hits and see economy will break as fundamental Recession is coming sometime around 2023. Now let’s talk about bitcoin. The retrace is complete nearly hit 20K my analysis had been correct but I might be or be wrong is the retrace isn’t over. As over 1.4 trillion had been wiped out value from the market; bitcoin haven’t reached the potential bottomed yet.. 21-20K has stronger resistance zones but should expect the huge rejection; if I’m wrong then We will see double top form or if should continue the retrace to make the crash sight. For the bottomed 14-16K is not the bottom; don’t fall for the Trap. Because things going on the economy and Feds still working on bringing the inflation down and Fundamental Recession is coming sometime around this year. Should expect Rate cuts sometime in late 2023 or Middle 4th Quarter in 2023 so final leg down can happen. Even if your profit still in green I highly suggest to sell it off until we hit the Top; remember the bear market isn’t over..even tho could be a long term consolidation could happen so please be very careful we still have a lot more to go. Experts sees bitcoin will bottom around 12K but mort said 11-10K zone even bigger surprises can go even lower around $5000,$5,500. As I see still 12-10K as a bitcoin bottom.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JoyBoyVegae
1
Santa Does Not Come to Bear MarketsA fierce face-ripping rally characteristic of bear markets caught shorts out on Winter Solstice, but should not be mistaken for anything than another bear rally. We have had a number of these all year long. This is no different. The .382 fibo aligns with 50 MA at the higher structure neckline, an ominous triple coincidence. IMO this move is consistent with an Elliot Fourth Wave, with a Fifth Wave final plunge yet to follow. Highlighted RSI graph, notice the Twin Peak Things in prior cascade. We are lining up with Thing Two. After the Things visit there will be quite a mess to clean up imo. IMO it is very unlikely that a real rally begins here, although Santa could bring a few days of holiday cheer, Mr Grinch will be just around the corner to spoil the holiday party. Historically a Santa rally does not visit bear markets. Signpost marker on Weds 28 Dec is purely notional based on overlay. In fact, another decline could begin at any time. Lot of resistance present at highs near 3890 on 12/21. Futures at time of this writing suggest a notch higher still. Projections are notional based on repeating pattern from Aug-October decline. So far has followed along pretty closely. IF the pattern repeats, we could be looking at 3640 on the Left Inverted Shoulder low by Monday 9 Jan 2023. This projection suggests a Right Inverted Shoulder may form; in fact an even lower low could emerge in January! Either way, an even weaker rally might ensue thereafter in the weeks leading up to FOMC on 1 Feb, likely to be another trigger event. IF the pattern mimics 2009, a waterfall cascade in Feb/Mar 2023 will see capitulation and real panic to conclude the Great Bear of 2022.
TVC:SPXShort
by DaddySawbucks
5
DIS 9 DEC 22 91/ 16 DEC 22 96 Diagonal BEAR RALLY SET UP: DIS made a new swing low 11/09 and since then it has made its way back to the 50day with lower or equal volume making this a potential bear rally. The entire market has been in a bear rally, so based on the patterns forming, this should make it's way lower to fill the gaps below. I used the doji candle on the 28th as my reversal candle at the 50day. And today it trigger because it traded below the previous days candle. Momentum indicators suggests more downside. I'm set up for max loss on this trade so if this decides to head higher, I'll be ok and move on to the next trade. I determined 91 would be a safe middle zone target based on the downward channel I drew. And if the market decides to bring this lower....to lets say 84 or 83, that would touch the lower trend line and could bounce back up to 91 to hit the apex of the trade on the 9th. DIAGONAL SPREAD STRATEGY: If this falls below my 91 target before Dec 9th, I'll wanna see if this goes down and touches 83 or 84. Lets say it gets there by Monday the 5th. It may want to rebound back to 91. If it does that and gets to 91 by lets say the 8th, I'll close out the entire combo. If this just stays below 91 by the 9th, I'll close out the entire combo as well. If this goes sideways until about the 8th or the 9th (that would be around the upper trend line which could happen) I'll still have the Dec 16 96 strike. I'll have to watch it the week of expiration to see if I'll wanna close this out a couple days before the 16th. If this goes higher I'm set up for max loss, so I'll just move on to another trade. Ideally I wanna see this at 91 or lower by the 8th because I prefer to close the entire combo and move on to another trade.
NYSE:DISShort
by MMOTA_
SPX's Bear Rally May Tag Resistance Zone at 4100-4143Primary Chart: Down Trendline and Anchored VWAP from All-Time Highs, Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions Summary of Key Points: 1. SPX remains in a countertrend rally (an uptrend on shorter time frames) from the October 13, 2022 lows. See the parallel channel on the Primary Chart. The post-FOMC selloff found support right at the base of this channel. 2. A pullback and consolidation should be expected, though it's not necessarily a given. Though prices moved in almost a straight line late last week, that is not the norm and even with that nearly straight line, prices never move in a straight line on higher time frames. If a pullback / consolidation occurs, it would be in the blue box area shown on the Primary Chart. 3. SquishTrade will only consider targets above 4000 if SPX can successfully reclaim 4000 with a daily close above, i.e., 4000 works as as a condition precedent to 4100-4143. 4. The truth is that no one can see the future and predict with consistency and accuracy exactly what happens next. Technical analysis is a tool used to evaluate probabilities, not certainties. 5. Bear rallies, in the mean time, should be respected. After all, how many times have bears (including SquishTrade) had their heads handed to them on a shiny platter this year? They go higher than anyone expects. And they tend to turn back lower to resume the bear market just when everyone starts thinking the lows are in and a new uptrend at the primary degree has begun. SPX's bear rally may continue higher, with pullbacks / consolidations of course, to reach 4100-4143. Why is it still being called a bear rally? Some may wonder whether the lows are in after last week's powerful rally on incredibly strong breadth on November 10, 2022, with follow through on Friday, November 11, 2022. Social media is filled with calls for markets to move back to all-time highs given markets uncanny ability to "sniff out" the final stages of inflation and a return to normalcy with a Fed pivot not long afterwards. Sound too good to be true? Maybe it is. The truth is that no one can see the future and predict with consistency and accuracy exactly what happens next. Technical analysis is a tool used to evaluate probabilities, not certainties. The probabilities suggest the market heads lower at some point once the extreme emotions surrounding the "relief rally" (likely fueled by a nice mix of FOMO, algos and short-covering) have faded and price exhausts to the upside. Bear rallies, in the mean time, should be respected. After all, how many times have bears (including SquishTrade) had their heads handed to them on a shiny platter this year? They go higher than anyone expects. And they tend to turn back lower to resume the bear market just when everyone starts thinking the lows are in and a new uptrend at the primary degree has begun. SquishTrade's analysis suggests the bear rally should continue at least another week, perhaps two. Sure, a pullback is likely after the run up last week to consolidate those excessive gains, but the countertrend rally is likely to continue. Please interpret this analysis correctly—SquishTrade is labeling this a countertrend rally until the larger trend structure is definitively broken. SquishTrade is not long-term bullish or calling for a new uptrend at the primary degree. Comments asking why the view has flipped are misplaced: the long-term and even intermediate-term view has not flipped as every downtrend by definition includes both highs and lows in an ebb and flow progressing downward over time. At this stage, the downtrend at the primary degree remains intact. Note the downward trendline in dark blue from the all-time highs. Note the VWAP anchored to the all-time highs in January 2022. These represent actual price data, not opinions. The structure remains down at the primary degree no matter what macro chatter is out there. Tom Lee, a sort of permabull who correctly called the 2-year rally to SPX 4800 off the Covid lows is still calling for SPX 5100 by year end, and thinks that this rally leg can reach 4400. Other macro and technical analysts have said the lows are in and SPX is rallying having sensed the final stages of inflation. Of course, for every bull, there is an equally persuasive bear. SquishTrade believes all that information is contained in the technicals, so why argue the data when it may not matter in the end? Markets will do whatever they want. If markets break the downtrend, then the bulls are right. If they continue the downtrend, the bears are right. Squish remains a bear until the technicals on the larger timeframes can change. Consider two supplementary charts. First is the key anchored VWAPs from major pivots in this bear market. Note the VWAPs from the mid-August 2022 high, the mid-June 2022 low, the mid-October 2022 low. Those VWAPs are converging and beginning to rise, suggesting a strong support zone from 3800-$3879. If this support breaks along with the parallel channel support (the up TL from October 13, 2022), then all bets are off. If this support holds, then watch for a move to the targets identified above. Supplementary Chart A: Anchored VWAPs Supplementary Chart B: Fibonacci Time and Price Analysis Note the confluence of key levels in the Fibonacci price analysis around 4100 and just above that level. These also coincide with the all-time high anchored VWAP currently at 4114.25 and the down trendline from the all-time highs as well, at least where that trendline appears in the next couple weeks. As to the Fibonacci time analysis, consider that since the .50 Fibonacci time level didn't produce a meaningful turn lower, perhaps the .618 Fib level will. Full disclosure: the time analysis is the most speculative and unreliable portion of this post, so if it works out well, that would come as a surprise to ST. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
SP:SPX
by SquishTrade
14
Resistance Levels Where AMD Could Fail in a Bear RallyPrimary Chart: Bollinger Bands (Yellow Shaded Volatility Channel) with Fibonacci Levels, Downward TL and VWAPs 1. As discussed earlier this month, AMD remains in a severe downtrend at the primary degree of trend. This means that the path of least resistance on higher time frames remains lower unless and until AMD can do a substantial amount of price work and recover into the mid $80s (the area of the downward trendline shown on the Primary Chart) and preferably the $100.60 level (the .50 retracement of the 2020-2022 rally). Supplementary Chart A: AMD's Linear Regression Channel Reflects Severe Downtrend 2. In every trend, however, corrective retracements and mean reversions will occur. In a downtrend, market participants commonly attempt to pick bottoms especially in former market leaders and darlings—and when this bottom-picking is combined with heavy short positioning that requires covering when major downside moves exhaust, ferocious bear rallies ensue. On October 11, 2022, SquishTrade prepared the following chart showing some of the powerful bear rallies that have occurred since November 30, 2022 (all-time high date): Supplementary Chart B: Percentage Gains for Bear Rallies in AMD Since All-Time High 3. The VWAP anchored to the all-time high on November 30, 2022, shown on the Primary Chart, reveals that the downtrend at the primary degree of trend remains in effect. The lower highs and lower lows on daily and weekly charts support this conclusion, and the downward trendline—also shown on the Primary Chart in orange—has not been broken. Price remains significantly below both the orange downward TL and the all-time-high VWAP, showing the profound weakness in this former market leader. 4. Price has even fallen beneath the April 2018 anchored VWAP (shown in red on the Primary Chart above) having a price value of $61.95 on October 20, 2022. AMD's rapid decline since August 4, 2022 peaks appears to have stalled just after breaking below this VWAP. This 4.5 year VWAP provides strong near-term resistance at $61.95. This level of interest should be monitored during any bear rally and on any subsequent decline. Price may rally and whipsaw above it during a mean reversion only to fail and slice back below it. 5. Price has fallen beneath the .786 and .618 retracements of the entire rally from the Covid 2020 lows. These levels are at $64.08 and $85.54 respectively. This is significant because it reflects the strength of this downtrend. Any bear rally will meet strong resistance when rising back to these levels. Before considering these levels as resistance however, price must first break above the April 2018 VWAP (about $61-$62), and the 21-day EMA at about $63.31 as of October 20, 2022. Until the 21-day EMA and the April 2018 VWAP are reclaimed ($61-$63 approximately, the higher retracement levels remain irrelevant. 6. Some evidence of downside exhaustion appears on AMD's charts. These suggest that a short-covering and FOMO-driven rally may occur in the coming weeks between now and year end. SquishTrade hinted at this possibility recently with the following chart, showing how AMD was approaching the bottom of its downtrend channel: Supplementary Chart C: October 11, 2022, Post Showing Higher Risk For Shorts Near Downtrend-Channel Support 7. On AMD's daily chart, RSI now shows a positive divergence despite price making lower lows. This is further evidence that shorts should be cautious and wary of a bear rally or, at a minimum, choppy action over the next few weeks. Supplementary Chart D: RSI Positive Divergence on Daily Chart 8. The Bollinger Bands also suggest that the downward price move from August 4, 2022, swing highs may be nearing exhaustion. Note how the bands (set at two standard deviations) are contracting now, which suggests either chop or mean reversion in the coming days or weeks. The %B indicator in the subgraph also shows weakening downside price action. As price made lower lows over the past two months, the %B indicator made higher lows. This reflects that price moves were less powerful even though they made lower lows on the main price chart—when price cannot pierce the bands as deeply with each subsequent low, and when price eventually cannot even tag the band with a new low in October 2022, this shows price may be ready to consolidate or mean revert. Supplementary Chart E: Bollinger Bands Signaling Exhaustion and Temporary Pause in Downtrend 9. For anyone trying to catch the bear rallies, watch out for false breakouts above resistance as discussed in the following linked post, showing a false breakout this month above a shorter-term trendline. When the primary trend is down, countertrend moves can be challenging and tricky, so tight stops make sense. Supplementary Chart F: False Breakout above Resistance—Example from October 6, 2022 ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:AMD
by SquishTrade
23
Log Chart Paints Bleak Picture for NVDAPrimary Chart: Daily Chart on Log Scale with Down Trendlines, VWAPs, and Key Price and Fibonacci Levels Some may be feeling a bit giddy over the fact that NVDA has rallied 28% off the lows. But look at those other bear rallies since the all-time highs shown on the Primary Chart. How do we know this time will be different? Expecting it to be different before a dramatic shift in the macro environment, or before a serious change in trend structure, is like hoping a lottery ticket will somehow beat the astronomical odds against it. This post is not asserting that traders can't make money on a bear rally. Countertrend trades, though lower probability trades that remain very tricky, can be a profitable part of a traders approach. For traders willing to see both the bearish and bullish side of markets this year, some of the bear rallies could have been exceedingly profitable even if only a portion of those rallies was caught by the trade. A logarithmic chart of this former stock market leader NVDA reveals an even bleaker picture than the linear chart. A linear chart shows that NVDA is contending with some limited degree of success with a shorter-term down TL from March 29, 2022 through the mid-August 2022 highs.That has some validity and can be watched as well going forward. But given the sheer magnitude of the decline this year, it's worth paying heeding the log version (shown on the Primary Chart) as well. The log version shows the shorter down TL being some distance above where price is currently trading, meaning that NVDA has a fair amount more work to even start to *begin* to change its trend structure. For comparison, here is the linear chart with the shorter of the two major down TLs shown: Supplementary Chart A: Down TL from March 29, 2022 Sure, NVDA is rallying nicely off the YTD lows from mid-October 2022. And that rally should continue to be respected until it's confirmed to be complete. A good way to gauge the rally off the lows is to use an upward trendline—here a parallel channel is used, and the lower boundary of the channel is the upward trendline off the lows. Consider the following "zoomed-in" version of the chart using an intraday 130m price bar: Supplementary Chart B: Parallel Channel from October 2022 Low For now, price is well contained within that channel. Shorting does not make sense until good confirmation arises that this bear rally is finished. The VWAP anchored to YTD lows (orange) also may work as a guide for the short-term bear rally. It is prudent not to fight the rally until it's weakened or has reached a major resistance level and shown signs of weakening momentum or negative divergences. SquishTrade will be continuing to monitor both NVDA and AMD for potential shorts should this rally gather a bit more steam. A key tell is that semiconductors have decisively undercut YTD lows in June, which creates a bearish pattern generally speaking. What are some logical price targets for this rally? Before discussing targets, a bit of a disclaimer. Countertrend targets can be a little silly to discuss—a countertrend rally can fail at any time, so picking a price target is a bit like tossing a dart with one's eyes closed. But given the parallel channel and VWAP remain supportive of the rally so far, NVDA could continue to climb until it gets squished by the FOMC presser, CPI report, or disappointing earnings. NVDA closed at $135 today, November 1. SquishTrade thinks NVDA has a reasonable probability of reaching $140.55 (the blue line on the Primary Chart that coincides with a major swing low). Only if $140.55 is exceeded, the next price target can come into play—which is $144.36, a key Fibonacci level. After that is the $145-150 gap fill area which will also coincide with the down TL from March 2022 (on a log chart) in the next week or so. Just because these targets make sense does not mean that they should be traded, which depends on a person's risk tolerance, time frame, ability to use stops and manage risk as well as understanding of volatility. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by SquishTrade
18
NVDA: Placing the Rally in ContextPrimary Chart: NVDA's Primary Trend Since Its All-Time High November 22, 2021, with Anchored VWAPs SUMMARY: NVDA appears to have begun a countertrend rally within the context of a sharp downtrend. Other countertrend rallies have ranged from 28.9% to 40.17%. Don't be fooled by a show of strength that does not change the overall structure. Countertrend trading is lower probability, but can be lucrative if risk is managed with great discipline. The most conservative upside target (resistance) range for this rally is $128-$130. This would be reached, if at all, in the next week or two. If the $128-$130 level is reclaimed successfully, then the next higher target to consider is the $145-$150 range discussed below. Watch the green uptrend line off the YTD low on October 13, 2022 and the red VWAP anchored to the YTD low. If either is broken, all bets are off. NVDA has rallied about 15.58% off its YTD lows on October 13, 2022. The lows have not been undercut now for a little over a week. Broader equity indices have rallied as well, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 both gaining about 2.3% on Friday. NVDA rallied along side both these indices. 1. NVDA's rally could continue into the FOMC meeting on November 1-2, 2022. The FOMC is likely to increase interest rates by .75 percentage points at the November 2022 meeting. The CME's Fed watch tool, tracking federal-funds-rate futures products, shows the probability of a 75 bps hike at 88% for November. Have markets already discounted this? Probably. What is unknown is whether any change in the Fed's messaging will occur or will the Fed maintain its higher-for-longer hawkish stance to deal with sticky inflation. Fed officials have spoken in recent weeks expressing dissatisfaction with the current inflationary environment and its ramifications for price stability. 2. Pullbacks may likely respect the very short-term VWAP anchored to the YTD low (red VWAP anchored to October 13, 2022). Watch this VWAP for support. If the VWAP is violated, it will be important to determine if the violation is decisive (slicing through and showing no sign of reverting back to the level) or if the violation is minor and brief. 3. NVDA just closed above its 21-day EMA, which lies at 124.16. Today's close was 124.66. 4. Before any higher price targets can be taken seriously, NVDA must reclaim its 34-day EMA (currently just below $130) as well as a key Fibonacci level (teal .236 level at $128.10) (shown just below this paragraph). This is the most conservative target zone for a countertrend rally. Supplementary Chart: Fibonacci Levels 5. A more ambitious zone for a price target may be considered only if the 34-day EMA is recovered first. This secondary target zone comprises two technical levels: (a) the VWAP anchored to the August 4, 2022, high currently located at 143.08, and (b) the gap fill area (teal-blue rectangle) at $145 to $150. 6. It remains crucial to place any rally into context, even if the rally seems like a powerful rally that is unstoppable for a while, like some of the other bear rallies in this market. Massive bear rallies can trick market participants into thinking the lows may be in, and lure them with fear of missing out. Other countertrend rallies have ranged from 28.9% to 40.17%. Don't be fooled by a show of strength that does not change the overall structure. Countertrend trading is lower probability, but can be lucrative if risk is managed with great discipline. 7. The larger context is a downtrend at the degree of the primary trend. All major swing highs and lows over the past year have been lower highs and lower lows. The anchored VWAP at the all-time high (dark purple) remains well overhead. Price would have to rally and hold the $190-$200 level to show material structural change. All other rallies will constitute noise at the larger degree of trend. In other words, the downtrend channel should contain any rallies for the time being. If not, then it becomes appropriate to consider whether a larger-degree structural change is occurring that may lead to a major trend reversal. Please note that SquishTrade is "cautiously bullish" only for the next week. In the larger scheme, the outlook remains bearish until substantial evidence appears that structural trend change is occurring at the larger degrees of trend. This remains unlikely with interest rates breaking above a 40-year trendline as discussed in this post:
NASDAQ:NVDA
by SquishTrade
29
Downtrend Channel after the FEDCould it be that markets have been impatient? I think so. After watching yesterday's price action, I think the market gets the message now. Or do they? I need to see capitulation before I see a rally. But we're getting close. I've been thinking that the VIX needs to get to 40 or 50, and THAT would be my capitulation. So if that happened...what...we would get to 3000? 2900? I mean, it could happen in the coming weeks. Or maybe we just follow the downward trend line slowly for the rest of the year and no Santa Clause Rally? Remember the scene in the movie "The Perfect Storm" with George Clooney, where the sun starts poking in through the clouds of the hurricane, giving the fisherman a sign of hope? And then the dark storm clouds covered the sun, destroying the hopes briefly had. That's what happened yesterday. Plan for the day: I'll watch the market throughout the day to determine if I should continue to add to my short positions. The market may need a couple more days to digest yesterday. I really don't think anyone is going to want to hold anything over the weekend so if the selling continues today and tomorrow, that would not be good for the week to come. If we continue to go higher, 3970ish, 4010ish will be the area for me to watch closely. Either way, stay disciplined, be patient, trade the market in front of you. Happy Trading!
SP:SPXShort
by MMOTA_
AMD Nears Multi-Month Support, Higher Risk for ShortsPrimary Chart: AMD's YTD Parallel Channel and Short-Term 2.5 Month Parallel Channel This post will provide only a brief update to the more detailed technical discussions of AMD from last week. The more detailed technical analysis is contained in a pair of AMD posts linked on the Primary Chart above. 1. Nothing has changed with regard to AMD's larger downtrend structure. As discussed in last week's analyses, AMD remains in a severe downtrend that has shown no evidence of structural change. 2. Last week's discussions identified a false breakout above the shorter-term down trendline, made especially clear by a Pinocchio bar with a long shadow protruding above this trendline. This foreshadowed the large decline that ensued the next day, with the stock gapping down significantly. Since the Pinocchio bar was identified, the stock has plummeted another -15.0% to -17.1%. Isn't it interesting that when stocks are in a trend in either direction, they can go higher / lower than expected? Stocks that seem very low in a downtrend seem to find their way ever lower. 3. An extremely sharp bear bounce could occur at any time . Just look at the prior rallies in the chart below this paragraph. Many of these bear rallies rise nearly vertically from the lower line of the channel (called the return line). This is typical of bear rallies. They tend to be some of the strongest rallies that happen in markets, and this bear market has been a fascinating learning experience (even if painful for longer-term investors) as these rallies and declines unfold. Supplementary Chart: Measurement of Prior Bear Rallies and Bounces YTD 4. Just because bear rallies can happen doesn't mean that every time the lower channel is tagged that a sharp rally will ensue. But a bullish divergence has formed on daily RSI , meaning that as price made new lows, RSI made higher lows. But a bullish divergence can be erased by price falling rapidly to a new low and pulling RSI with it below its prior RSI low. So it's better to wait for confirmation from price. 5. The lower edge of the parallel channel on Primary Chart shows where price could reach in October 2022. This level ranges from about $55 to $51 over the course of this month. The critical question for AMD is whether (i) price will accelerate its downtrend even further by breaking below this line or (ii) whether AMD will reverse there for a sharp bounce back into the channel. One other alternative is that AMD could whipsaw below the line for a few trading days in an extreme exhaustion move, then snap back above the line, signaling an intermediate term rally. Having identified the key levels that may affect the price action, SquishTrade will not attempt to make bold predictions of either (a) a break below the trendline, or (b) a key reversal that leads to a sharp trip back to the top of the channel. Much will depend on the FOMC minutes and CPI this week and their affect on the interest-rate environment. Given the environment (a severe downtrend) and the levels shown, traders and investors can make their best call with tight stops in place that measure and limit risk—risk is inherent in every trade or investment which is why stops are important for everyone except Warren Buffett—or even better, they can wait patiently for a trend-based setup at resistance. ________________________________________ Author's Comments: (1) Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. (2) This technical-analysis view does not constitute a trade recommendation or trade setup. Instead, it attempts to offer technical commentary that describes and analyzes price levels, trends, price action, or the broader technical environment as of the publication date. Technical-analysis commentary does not equate to trade setups or recommendations. Within a given price environment, traders bear responsibility for their own trading strategy, risk tolerance, and time frame, and for any due diligence associated with such trades. (3) This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice, e.g., when price violates a key level of invalidation for a particular view. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. (4) To the extent countertrend price moves are discussed, consider that countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, remains higher risk and lower probability even for the most experienced traders and investors. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified / licensed financial adviser or other financial or investment professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:AMD
by SquishTrade
31
Will Resistance Hold? We got to 3800 yesterday and it's really testing resistances at this level. So do we move higher from here? If you look at the DOW, it's actually above it's 50 MA and at resistance as well. And yet, 74% of stock are still trading below their 50 MA. We are still in a Bear Market, so we have to remain Bearish. Did you look at the volume we had yesterday compared to Friday? The amount of volume we had yesterday was about half of Friday's. Also a cautious sign. Still sitting on my hands and waiting for a clearer picture. Remember, 90% of trading is patience. Overall, I think Markets still expect the Fed to stay on track or even slow. Google is to announce earnings today, and Microsoft after market close. We could just hang out in this area today, push higher (because the market still has room to go higher) or volatility can start to kick in. Be patient and trade the market in front of you. Happy trading everyone!
SP:SPXShort
by MMOTA_
SPY the Anchored VWAPs during Choppy Price ActionPrimary Chart: Long-Term Anchored VWAPs and YTD Down Trendline Whenever price action gets confusing, it can help to take a step back and consider the larger picture again. Many experts have weighed in after each consecutive low in this year's bear market, with some claiming that the lows are in, and others claiming price has much further to fall after the inevitable relief rallies. Placing the Current Price Action into Context with Anchored VWAPs with Different Lengths The Primary Chart shows several important VWAPs anchored to both longer-term and more recent swing highs and lows. The anchored VWAPs all help provide a broader picture of what is happening with price on major equity indices like the S&P 500, which is tracked and analyzed here using the S&P 500 ETF AMEX:SPY . (Note that SPY values are roughly equivalent to SPX values, so SPX is typically a multiple of 10 times SPY, though SPY typically trades at a slightly lesser level than SPX after conversion.) The anchored VWAP from the pandemic low on March 23, 2020, is gold colored and remains above price as resistance with a flat to slightly downward slope. This VWAP has a value of 385.51 as of today. The VWAP anchored to the all-time high on January 4, 2022, is orange colored and slopes downward well above price. This VWAP currently has a value of $416.71 as of today. The Primary Chart also shows two blue-colored VWAPs anchored to recent major swing highs and lows: (i) the swing high on August 16, 2022, and the swing low on June 17, 2022. These also have a sharp downward slope and are above current prices as resistance. These VWAPs values range currently from about 389.08 to $390.57. Lastly, the VWAP anchored to the September 30, 2022, low, which is the YTD low, is red colored and sloping upward with price above it. Provided price can hold above this VWAP, and as long as it remains upward sloped, it suggests shorter-term trends remain choppy to upward. The YTD trendline that has contained price (light blue) also confirms what the VWAPs show. This downtrend line has rejected price multiple times even after powerful, sharp multi-week rallies. When this line is broken to the upside and the VWAPs are reclaimed as well, one might begin to discuss whether the trend structure could be changing and whether the lows are more lasting. Until such time, rallies should be viewed with some level of suspicion. Price could rally hard, as it has done multiple times already this year, and convince many that the lows are in, only to reverse and continue the downtrend right at the critical resistance levels. Placing the Current Downtrend into an Even Larger Context A recent SquishTrade analysis from October 1, 2022, discussed the 13-year secular uptrend in the S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ), noting that SPX had fallen below the midpoint of the 13-year channel. The post with that analysis can be found here. Supplementary Chart: 13-Year Secular Uptrend on Logarithmic Chart To summarize the analysis from that prior post, the current trend—a bear market— could continue until the lower edge of the channel without changing the very long-term "secular" uptrend at all. The lower edge of the channel lies at $3000-$3100 in the coming months. More specifically, the prior post on this 13-year secular uptrend noted the likelihood that price could come into the lower edge of the channel without changing the structure of the longer-term secular uptrend: "Eventually, price may likely come into contact with the lower edge of the channel—and the long-term secular uptrend will still be intact and neatly contain this bear market. In other words, this bear market at the level of primary trend will not invalidate the secular uptrend, unless price breaks that line around SPX 3000-3100 (considering where the line lies in 3 to 6 months)." Since the September 30, 2022, low, price has now recovered to retest the midpoint of that channel at approximately SPX 3756, and price is chopping around the midpoint now. ________________________________________ Author's Comments: (1) Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. (2) This technical-analysis view does not constitute a trade recommendation or trade setup. Instead, it attempts to offer technical commentary that describes and analyzes price levels, trends, price action, or the broader technical environment as of the publication date. Technical-analysis commentary does not equate to trade setups or recommendations. Within a given price environment, traders bear responsibility for their own trading strategy, risk tolerance, and time frame, and for any due diligence associated with such trades. (3) This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice, e.g., when price violates a key level of invalidation for a particular view. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. (4) To the extent countertrend price moves are discussed, consider that countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, remains higher risk and lower probability even for the most experienced traders and investors. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified / licensed financial adviser or other financial or investment professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
AMEX:SPY
by SquishTrade
11
Oct 24th-28th.Big Tech Earnings Week.I hope everyone had a nice weekend. Stepped away from the markets on Friday as I went to Ensenada Mexico to celebrate my grandfathers 90th birthday. Dude is still going strong and showing no signs of stopping! Always important to spend time with your family, be present in the moment and not always think about the markets. Now, let's get into it. Interesting week last week as we finished Friday with a big green day. Which took many by surprise, especially after Thursday's candle, signaling a more bearish week. But if you sit back and take a look at the bigger picture, we've been in this zone for a few weeks now playing this tug of war game between the June lows and 3800. So, this is still a corrective phase that we're in and I don't think this is THE bottom. Remember that in Bear Rally's, sharp rebounds are to be expected. We're at the 20 EMA still and could continue to go touch the 50 EMA which would put us at 3800ish, 3850ish and still be considered a Bear Rally. With higher pivot lows forming, interest rates still rising with the 2 YR @ 4.6% and an inverted yield curve and a Fed with now intentions on pivoting. You gotta ask yourself: "Do we continue higher with all these head winds?". Many of these "earnings beat" headlines were already on reduced guidance. Corrections can happen two ways. With time, and with Price. Since about September 23rd, we've been correcting with TIME. And now looking for a corrective phase in PRICE with the move we saw on October 23rd and Friday's move. Now if we take a look at the VIX, you would think with all this volatility, it would be more aggressive but the VIX is a forward looking. It implies what is to be expected. And expectations came down last week but not significantly. Here's something to consider. Refresh and then Reinitiate. Sometimes when the market gets confusing, it's best to sit back and be patient for the right entry. Cash IS a position. Nothing wrong with waiting for a clearer picture. Look what happened back in May and June. There was hope in the market as it jumped up between the 20 EMA and 50 EMA before it continued lower. So, similar thing could be playing out here again. Let the hope phase fizzle out and reinitiate your execution. This week we have AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT announcing earnings and these guys are heavily weighted in the S&P, so important to pay attention to market activity. I am still bearish but not as bearish until I see what happens this week. Mange risk accordingly, position size, stay disciplined and patient. Happy Trading everyone!
SP:SPXShort
by MMOTA_
NVDA Faces an Uphill Battle for Its Bear RallyPrimary Chart: NVDA's Downtrend Represented by Parallel Channel with Key Levels SUMMARY: NVDA faces an uphill battle for its bear rally with a great deal of overhead resistance. One must presume at the outset that the rally is a bear rally given the bearish trend structure. Until that structure changes on higher time frames, such as daily and weekly time frames, the trend remains down. The bear rally should initially reach targets of $133.32, the 21-day EMA as of October 4, 2022, and $140.31–$141.98, a partial gap fill area and the top of the long shadow on the daily candle for September 21, 2022 and July 2022 support (now resistance). Only if the 21-day EMA and the September 1, 2022, anchored VWAP (purple line) from the gap on September 1, 2022, can be cleared does it make sense to consider the higher targets. If lower targets are cleared, the next higher targets would be $147.45, which represents a major gap fill area and a Fibonacci retracement level. This area also coincides with the orange VWAP anchored to early August 2022 peaks. This target does not appear likely to be exceeded in the near term. In the event $147.45 is cleared by a daily close, one may consider even higher targets, such as $156.10, which is the .50 retracement of the most recent leg of the bear market's decline, and $16 On September 12, 2022, NVDA's downtrend was discussed, and new lows were predicted. NVDA's new lows materialized quickly in September 2022 as equity markets plummeted to new YTD lows. The September 12, 2022, post also queried whether the gap at $150 would be filled before new lows, but recognized that the 8-day EMA would have to be conquered first. Because the 8-day EMA was never reclaimed at the time, price followed the path of least resistance and reached new lows sooner than expected. This occurred amid a backdrop of interest rates continuing to skyrocket since mid-August 2022, and US central bank policy remaining quite hawkish to control sticky inflation. Like the Nasdaq 100 of which it is a constituent, NVDA has begun to rise in what should be considered an oversold bounce. On Tuesday, October 4, 2022, as equity indices rallied hard, NVDA popped +5.23%. The semiconductor group rallied about 4.28% (see NASDAQ:SMH on October 4, 2022). After two days of massive gains so far, NVDA may need to cool off a bit before dip buyers and short-covering sellers continue to push the price higher. Because this is a bear market, anything can happen, and the bear market could resume at any time, which is why countertrend trading is considered high risk and low probability trading. Initial targets for the bounce, which could serve as downtrend entry points for nimble traders with stops, could include the 21-EMA (unless price decisively closes above it), around $133.32 as of today, then $140.31-$141.98, a zone shown by a light blue rectangle on the Primary Chart above. This zone includes a partial gap fill area and major swing lows from early July 2022 (now resistance). Only if these initial levels can be cleared and maintained does it make sense to consider further targets even higher. The next resistance area overhead lies at $147.45–149.58, a zone shown by another light blue rectangle on the Primary Chart above. Clearing $147.45 could be challenging given the supply zone evident there—this is where mid-July 2022 support was found at a major swing low, which now makes it a critical resistance area and supply zone. And this is also where a daily candle with a strikingly large shadow (representing supply and selling pressure) appears on September 21, 2022. A Fibonacci resistance level also coincides with this level, i.e., the .382 Fibonacci retracement at $147.45. This area also coincides with the orange VWAP anchored to early August 2022 peaks. This resistance does not appear likely to be exceeded in the near term. In the event $147.45-$149.58 is cleared by a daily close, one may consider even higher targets, such as $156.10-164.75, which are key Fibonacci retracements of the most recent leg of the bear market's decline. If price can break everyone's expectations and exceed even $156-$164, then it still must contend with the channel resistance at the downtrend line shown on the Primary Chart. For October 2022, this channel resistance (which is dynamic as it slopes downward) lies in the $190s. RSI also points to higher prices near term. This momentum indicator has broken above an intermediate-term downtrend resistance shown by a trendline on the RSI chart below. RSI could continue up to the typical oversold area for bear markets and downtrends, around 55-65. Supplementary Chart: RSI on Daily Chart for NVDA Countertrend trading is already challenging and lower probability than trend trading. But to make matters worse, any trades on this rally could be frustrated by volatility around CPI and NFP data being released in coming days. This could make price action in stocks and equity indices continue to whipsaw or chop as it has recently. ________________________________________ Author's Comments: (1) Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. (2) This technical-analysis view does not constitute a trade recommendation or trade setup. Instead, it attempts to offer technical commentary that describes and analyzes price levels, trends, price action, or the broader technical environment as of the publication date. Technical-analysis commentary does not equate to trade setups or recommendations. Within a given price environment, traders bear responsibility for their own trading strategy, risk tolerance, and time frame, and for any due diligence associated with such trades. (3) This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice, e.g., when price violates a key level of invalidation for a particular view. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. (4) To the extent countertrend price moves are discussed, consider that countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, remains higher risk and lower probability even for the most experienced traders and investors. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified / licensed financial adviser or other financial or investment professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by SquishTrade
8