Downloading...
Download

Beyond Technical Analysis

Yen Futures Options: What the "Put Condor" Tells Us About FutureA quick look at the options sentiment on Japanese Yen futures (not spot) — and there’s something interesting on the flow radar. On July 10 , a "Put Condor" was placed — boundaries marked by the yellow rectangle on the chart (№1). The goal of this setup? Price should expire within these boundaries — meaning the seller expects limited downside , but still allows for some controlled movement. What’s notable? This position was placed before the yen started to weaken — so someone was clearly preparing for this scenario in advance . Also worth watching: Further down (№2 on the chart), there’s another cluster of put options at 0.0067 — suggesting this level could act as a support zone if the futures contract drops that low. 📊 Bottom Line: There are clear signs pointing to continued downside pressure in Yen futures. The 0.006685 level is key — potential support for a bounce back into the 0.00675–0.00685 range .
CME:6J1!Short
by ClashChartsTeam
LONG for EURUSD?LONG EURUSD What is going on with EURUSD We see how beautiful the market went up from the beginning of the trend line constatly with pullbacks that means a steady uptrend not really the urge that the market want to go back. We used the fib as always to indicate 61.8% perfect pullback on that and as we see on the resistance that has to be tested. There will be a fake break out of 100-150 pips. If we go back on the RSI we see divergence momentum is back to average. We call this hidden divergence price goes up and indicator goes down. What indicates us that we also have new space for a higher high. Targets we have in mind 1.19035 with high momentum what I expect it will hit the 1.20274 , important to have in mind 1.20000 is a key level price wants to go there as a magnet. Reverse of the analyses: If it breaks the 61.8% it will retest the market structure and goes to the 1.13544 with high momentum just to test price and set us offside because that is what the market want hit as many stop losses because that’s where the liquidity is build up, takes out and will continue the uptrend. Follow my journey I try to post daily. Markets I analyse XAUUSD, EURUSD, USDMXN, XTIUSD, XRPUSD, BTCUSD. Will start more forex and Crypto soon.
Long
by JSth3Kid
Long for QUBIC 25%?For the people on Qubic My brother believes in Qubic there is a lot of extern factors as news and events that are happening a lot of people believe it will sky high but for now we put the technical analyses first. We have a falling wedge what we can use the first leg of the flag to find a outcome as a target, we also use the fib we see the reaction on the 50% what a meaning of high momentum is. From backtesting we know the changes are high it goes to the -50%. We are now testing the trend line there is enough momentum build in the wedge to make an outbreak to out target. The RSI tell us there is space for the momentum and also nearly divergention. Last thing we have in the wedge a bullish W-patron and out backtesting the changes are high that the last leg will explode. This is pure technical analyses we know that new events/news information has a high impact on the crypto markets or coins. As calculated it can be a 25.46% grow if hits target. Follow the journey I try to upload daily now!
Long
by JSth3Kid
SP500 ES Weekly Recap | ATH Deviation → Pullback or Powell Pump?Overview: ES made a new all-time high last week, sweeping the previous high with strong momentum. However, the move ended up being a deviation, and the price quickly reversed — suggesting short-term exhaustion. Bearish Scenario (Baseline): 🔻 Rejection from ATH 🔻 Possible retracement targets: 12H Swing Low (turquoise line) Weekly Fair Value Gap (purple zone) I believe a pullback into those levels could provide bullish continuation setups for new highs. I’ll look for LTF confirmation once price reaches those zones. Bullish Scenario (Catalyst-Driven): 🚨 If Fed Chair Powell resigns this week (a circulating macro rumor), the market may not wait for retracement. This could lead to an aggressive breakout, driving ES and risk assets straight into new ATHs again. Plan: ✅ Watch for LTF confirmation after pullback ✅ Stay open to both scenarios ✅ Focus on HTF bullish structure as long as key levels hold
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by UA_CAPITAL
EURGBP Bullish Setup Analysis – MMC + Volume Absorption + TargetIn today's EUR/GBP 30-minute chart, we can clearly observe a well-structured Market Maker Cycle (MMC) in play, accompanied by Smart Money concepts such as volume absorption, minor BOS (Break of Structure), and reversal zone identification. Let’s walk through the technical story unfolding: 🧠 Step-by-Step Breakdown: 🟣 1. Reversal Zone & QFL (Quasimodo Failed Level) Formation The price made a sharp decline, which trapped retail sellers chasing the breakout to the downside. This drop landed into a key reversal zone — a price pocket where Smart Money often steps in for accumulation. The QFL structure is evident here, showing a previous demand zone break and then recovery — classic stop-loss hunting behavior followed by institutional positioning. This is often considered the “Spring” or “Manipulation” phase in Wyckoff or MMC theory. 🟩 2. Volume Absorption & Compression Phase After tapping into the reversal zone, price action entered a tight compression range, forming a wedge/triangle. During this phase, volume absorption is clearly visible — large players are absorbing selling pressure without letting price drop further. This is a signal of re-accumulation. Buyers are loading up while keeping the price suppressed to mislead retail traders. You’ve rightly labeled this phase as “Structure Mapping + Volume Absorption” — a textbook Smart Money behavior prior to breakout. 🔓 3. Minor Breaks of Structure (BOS) As price consolidates, we begin to see Minor BOS— subtle shifts in structure where previous highs are taken out. These BOS levels are confirmation that demand is outweighing supply. Once we break multiple minor highs, it shows that buyers are now in control — hinting at the transition from Accumulation → Expansion. 📈 4. Projected Next Reversal + Breakout Scenario The marked Next Reversal Zone above (around 0.8680–0.8695) is where we can expect the first true breakout and major expansion. If price enters this area with increased volume, it validates that Smart Money is pushing into the Markup Phase of the MMC. After the breakout, we could see price push toward 0.8710 and above. 📊 5. Market Maker Cycle (MMC) Summary What we’re seeing here is a full-scale MMC pattern unfolding: Manipulation (QFL trap ) → Accumulation (Volume absorption) → Structure Shift (Minor BOS) → Expansion (Reversal breakout) This is the kind of setup that offers high-probability entries for those who understand Smart Money dynamics and wait for confirmation. 🎯 Key Levels to Watch: Reversal Support Zone: 0.86450 – 0.86500 Breakout Target Zone: 0.86800 – 0.86950 Final Target (Swing): 0.87100+ 🧠 Final Thoughts: This EUR/GBP setup shows everything we love to see: Liquidity taken ✅ Structure forming ✅ Volume building ✅ BOS confirming ✅ Expansion pending 🔜 Be patient. Let Smart Money reveal their hand through price action and volume confirmation.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
Yen Weakness Deepens as Dollar Strength ResurfacesThe Japanese Yen continues to struggle, extending its multi-session decline against the U.S. Dollar. This morning’s weakness followed disappointing Japanese trade data, with June’s surplus falling well short of expectations due to another sharp contraction in exports, particularly to China. This trend has renewed fears that Japan may be slipping into a technical recession, which has further undermined confidence in the Yen. Beyond trade numbers, Japan’s macro landscape is becoming increasingly fragile. Real wages have declined, inflation is cooling, and the Bank of Japan’s path to normalizing policy now appears more uncertain. Adding to the pressure, political risk is also rising ahead of the upcoming Upper House election, leaving markets without a clear direction from fiscal leadership. In contrast, the U.S. Dollar is enjoying a resurgence. Federal Reserve members, including Williams and Logan, hinted this week that rates could remain higher for longer, particularly as President Trump’s latest wave of tariffs adds to inflation concerns. The administration’s recent clarification that there are no plans to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell has also calmed investor nerves, restoring faith in policy stability. The result: increased demand for the dollar at the Yen’s expense. Technical Outlook: • Current price: Just below 148.60 resistance • Support: 147.90 and 147.50 • Breakout potential: A decisive move above 148.60 could open the door toward 149.60 and even test the psychological 150.00 mark—last seen in March. • Indicators: Price is supported by the 100-hour EMA with positive oscillator alignment. Momentum remains bullish unless support at 147.90 is breached. Takeaway: Expect continued volatility as the Yen reacts to domestic data while USD remains supported by Fed hawkishness and trade tensions.
Long
by FDGCapital
EUR/USD Bearish Wave Outlook Into September 2025EUR/USD Bearish Wave Outlook Into September 2025 Technical + Elliott Wave + Macro View EUR/USD has likely completed a major top at 1.18300, which aligns with the 1.0 Fibonacci extension. This level acted as a liquidity sweep before reversing sharply, marking the top of Wave (1) in the current Elliott sequence. We're now entering Wave (3) to the downside—a high-momentum leg often driven by macro confirmation. Price has broken the ascending channel and rejected the 0.786 and 0.886 retracement zones. With lower highs forming, the structure is weakening. The next likely target sits around 1.10223, a key Fibonacci and order block confluence. If momentum accelerates, EUR/USD could continue toward 1.08289, completing the full Wave (2). From a macro lens, the divergence between the Fed and ECB continues to widen. The U.S. economy remains resilient with sticky inflation and strong yields supporting the dollar. In contrast, Europe is showing signs of stagnation, with Germany and France struggling to post meaningful growth. This favors continued downside on the pair. Expect potential relief rallies into 1.1400–1.1550, but these are likely to be sold unless a fundamental catalyst shifts sentiment. Bias: Bearish Targets: 1.1022 > 1.0828 Invalidation: Clean break and close above 1.1700 — 🔔 Watch for volume spikes and failed reclaims of structure as confirmation. DSS signals aligned. #EURUSD #Forex #ElliottWave #SmartMoneyConcepts #MacroTrading #WaverVanir #VolanX #DollarStrength #FXForecast #TechnicalAnalysis
Short
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
BTC/USDT Heist Mode: Buy Low, Escape Rich🏴‍☠️"Bitcoin vs Tether" Crypto Market Robbery Blueprint 🔥 | Thief Trading Style (Swing/Day Plan) 🌍 Hey Money Makers, Chart Hackers, and Global Robbers! 💰🤑💸 Welcome to the new Heist Plan by your favorite thief in the game — this time targeting the "Bitcoin vs Tether" Crypto Market like a smooth criminal on the charts. 🎯📊 This is not your average technical analysis — it's a strategic robbery based on Thief Trading Style™, blending deep technical + fundamental analysis, market psychology, and raw trader instincts. 💼 THE SETUP — PREPARE FOR THE ROBBERY 🎯 We're looking at a bullish operation, setting up to break into the high-value vaults near a high-risk, high-reward resistance zone — beware, it's a high-voltage trap area where pro sellers and bearish robbers set their ambush. ⚡🔌 This plan includes a layered DCA-style entry, aiming for max profit with controlled risk. Chart alarms on, mindset ready. 🧠📈🔔 🟢 ENTRY: "The Robbery Begins" 📍 Zone-1 Buy: Near 116200.00 after MA pullback 📍 Zone-2 Buy: Near 112600.00 deeper pullback 🛠️ Entry Style: Limit Orders + DCA Layering 🎯 Wait for MA crossover confirmations and price reaction zones — don’t chase, trap the market. 🔻 STOP LOSS: "Plan the Escape Route" ⛔ SL for Pullback-1: 113000.00 (2H swing low) ⛔ SL for Pullback-2: 110000.00 📌 SL placement depends on your position sizing & risk management. Control the loss; live to rob another day. 🎭💼 🎯 TARGET ZONE: “Cash Out Point” 💸 First TP: 127000.00 🏁 Let the profit ride if momentum allows. Use a trailing SL once it moves in your favor to lock in gains. 👀 Scalpers Note: Only play the long side. If your capital is heavy, take early moves. If you’re light, swing it with the gang. Stay on the bullish train and avoid shorting traps. Use tight trailing SL. 🔎 THE STORY BEHIND THE HEIST – WHY BULLISH? "Bitcoin vs Tether" shows bullish momentum driven by: 💹 Technical bounce off major support 🌏 Macroeconomic & geopolitical sentiment 📰 Volume + sentiment shift (risk-on) 📈 Cross-market index confirmation 🧠 Smart traders are preparing, not reacting. Stay ahead of the herd. 👉 For deeper insight, refer to: ✅ Macro Reports ✅ COT Data ✅ Intermarket Correlations ✅ CHINA-specific index outlooks ⚠️ RISK WARNING – TRADING EVENTS & VOLATILITY 🗓️ News releases can flip sentiment fast — we advise: ❌ Avoid new positions during high-impact events 🔁 Use trailing SLs to protect profit 🔔 Always manage position sizing and alerts wisely ❤️ SUPPORT THE CREW | BOOST THE PLAN Love this analysis? Smash that Boost Button to power the team. Join the Thief Squad and trade like legends — Steal Smart, Trade Sharp. 💥💪💰 Every day in the market is a new heist opportunity — if you have a plan. Stay tuned for more wild robbery blueprints. 📌 This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. Adjust based on your personal strategy and capital. Market conditions evolve fast — stay updated, stay alert.
Long
by The-Thief
wall Street has set camp on Satoshi's backyard...Bitcoin didn’t just wake up and choose violence. It chose velocity. As BTC blasts through the six-figure ceiling and fiddles $120k with laser precision, everyone’s pointing to “the halving” like it’s some magical switch. But let's be real, Bitcoin bull runs don’t run on fairy dust and hope. They run on liquidity, macro dislocations, structural demand shifts, and a pinch of regulatory chaos. Here’s the nerdy breakdown of what’s really driving the Bitcoin Rocketship (and why this one’s different): 1. The Halving Effect (Not Just the Halving) Yes, the April 2024 halving slashed miner rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. But this time, the reflexivity is louder. Miners now have to sell less, and buyers (especially ETFs) have to beg for more. Miners = Reduced Sell Pressure. ETFs = Constant Buy Pressure. That’s a one-way order book squeeze. Simple math, but powerful dynamics. 2. ETF Flows: The "Spot" That Launched a Thousand Rallies When the SEC finally gave the green light to Bitcoin spot ETFs, TradFi didn’t walk in—they stormed in. Think BlackRock, Fidelity, and friends becoming daily buyers. It's not retail FOMO anymore, it's Wall Street with billions in dry powder doing dollar-cost averaging with institutional consistency. 🧠 Nerd Note: The top 5 U.S. spot ETFs alone are now hoarding more BTC than MicroStrategy. 3. Dollar Liquidity is Leaking Again Despite Fed jawboning, real rates are still under pressure and global liquidity is quietly creeping back. Look at the TGA drawdowns, reverse repo usage, and China’s stealth QE. Bitcoin, being the apex predator of liquidity, smells it from a mile away. “In a world flooded with fiat, Bitcoin doesn’t float. It flies.” 4. Sovereigns Are Quietly Watching El Salvador lit the match. Now, Argentina, Turkey, and even Gulf countries are tiptoeing toward a Bitcoin pivot, hedging USD exposure without broadcasting it to CNN. Central banks don’t need to love BTC to stack it. They just need to fear the dollar system enough. 5. Scarcity Narrative Goes 3D With 99% of BTC supply already mined and over 70% HODLed for over 6 months, every new buyer is bidding for a smaller slice of the pie. ETFs and institutions are trying to drink from a faucet that only drips. This is not a market with elastic supply. This is financial physics with a scarcity twist. 6. Market Microstructure is Fragile AF Order books are thin. Real liquidity is fragmented. And the sell-side has PTSD from getting blown out at $70k. This creates a “skateboard-on-a-freeway” scenario, when a few billion in inflows hit, prices don’t just rise. They gap. Nerdy Bonus: The Memecoin Effect (No, Really) The memecoin mania on Solana, Base, and Ethereum has been injecting dopamine into degens—and their profits are increasingly flowing into the OG digital gold. It’s the 2021 cycle all over again, just with more liquidity bridges and fewer inhibitions. Nerdy Insight: The Bull Run Has Layers What’s driving BTC to $120,000 isn’t a single headline. It’s a stacked convergence of macro, structure, psychology, and coded scarcity. Bitcoin isn’t “going up” just because of hope or halving hype. It’s going up because it’s the cleanest asset in a dirty system, and now both retail and institutions agree. Still shorting? That’s not “fading the crowd.” That’s fighting thermodynamics. Stay nerdy, stay sharp. put together by : @currencynerd as Pako Phutietsile
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by currencynerd
Crypto Week in the U.S. – Bitcoin SurgesCongressional Crypto Week: Bitcoin Hits All-Time Highs in a Decisive Week for the U.S. Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is back in global headlines after breaking above $123,203 this Tuesday, setting a new all-time high in the same week. So far in July, the leading cryptocurrency has surged 17%, fueled by a combination of institutional inflows, political momentum, and evolving regulation. This week, Washington is hosting “Crypto Week,” a key event that may define the legal and financial future of digital assets in the United States. At the same time, institutional backing shows no signs of slowing down—Bitcoin ETFs continue to set records for net inflows, particularly BlackRock’s IBIT, now managing over $85 billion in assets. ETFs, Trump, and Regulation: All Roads Lead to Crypto BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, attracted $729 million in net inflows last week alone, setting a historic milestone by becoming the fastest ETF ever to reach $80 billion in assets under management—just 374 days, compared to over 1,800 days for the previous record held by the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. The growing institutional interest—with over 265 funds and entities now actively investing in BTC—not only validates the asset class but also tightens supply: BlackRock reportedly acquired an average of more than 860 bitcoins per day last week. This persistent demand is directly contributing to the price momentum. A Legal Framework in Progress Three major bills are on the Congressional agenda this week: The Genius Act: Aims to regulate stablecoins and has already passed the Senate with bipartisan support. The Clarity Act: Seeks to define which cryptocurrencies qualify as securities or commodities, clarifying regulatory oversight. The Anti-CBDC Act: Proposes restricting the government’s ability to issue an official digital currency, favoring decentralized ecosystems. This regulatory push is seen by the market as a sign of institutional consolidation in the crypto space, paralleling the already advanced European MiCA framework. Technical Analysis of BTCUSD On the daily chart, Bitcoin broke decisively above the previous ceiling at $112,000 on July 12 and has since been validating a consolidation pattern near the $120,000 level—forming a bullish pennant on the 1-hour chart. The RSI remains overbought at 64.92%, but with no current signs of bearish divergence. The next technical target lies in the $130,000–$135,000 zone, while the nearest support is found at $118,000. A daily close below that level could trigger a technical correction toward $108,000–$109,000, marking the base of the current impulse. The point of control sits far lower at $85,195, although the current move appears to be unfolding within the third of three key volume profile levels. The MACD continues to support price expansion, though trading volume appears to be declining. Delta level indicators suggest strong resistance near current price highs, meaning another push may be needed—possibly triggered by continued regulatory momentum. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
ACTIVTRADES:BTCUSDLong
by ActivTrades
Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Thursday, 17th July 2024)Bias: Buliish USD News(Red Folder): -Core Retail Sales m/m -Retail Sales m/m -Unemployment Claims Notes: - Take note on the war news - Looking for price to retest 0.382 fib levl - Potential BUY if there's confirmation on lower timeframe - Pivot point: 3300 Disclaimer: This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by HM_fxtrading
DELTA - Converging Levels Creates Huge Resistance - Retrace?Hello Traders! Whichever Hedge Fund that is responsible for the recent price action in DELTA mustve been in a generous mood... because theyre giving us an excellent hint as to what price will likely do next. And what hint might that be you ask... 1) Trendline (connecting the recent highs) 2) Gap Fill (Resistance) Individually these factors are relatively strong, however when combined they essesntially create a strong barrier that will be very hard for price to break through. Think about it like a wall made from Captain Americas shield... now try and break through that.. aint gonna be easy. So whats next for price? If I was a betting man (and I am, incase you were wondering) I would say theres a high probability that price is going to trade down from this resistance level then retrace to the gap fill below. From the gap fill level we will likely see a bounce. Thanks, I hope you found this post educational or helpful and best of luck on your trading journey!
NYSE:DALShort
by natef1