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Beyond Technical Analysis

GOLD FULL UPDATE – July 15, 2025 | Post-CPI TrapPost-CPI Flip Zone Battle Hello dear traders 💛 Today has been one of those heavy CPI days — full of volatility, sweeps, and doubt. But if we read it structurally and stop chasing candles, everything makes sense. Let’s break it all down step by step, clearly and human-like. Current Price: 3330 Bias: Short-term bearish, reactive bounce underway Focus Zone: 3319–3320 liquidity sweep + key decision structure unfolding 🔹 Macro Context: CPI came in slightly hot year-over-year (2.7% vs 2.6%) while monthly stayed in-line at 0.3%. That gave the dollar a short-lived boost, and gold reacted exactly how institutions love to play it — sweeping liquidity under 3320, then pausing. Not falling, not flying. Just... thinking. That reaction matters. Why? Because it shows us indecision. It tells us that gold isn’t ready to break down fully yet, and every aggressive move today was part of a calculated shakeout. 🔹 Daily Structure: Gold is still stuck below the premium supply zone of 3356–3380. Every attempt to rally there for the past few weeks has failed — including today. The discount demand area between 3280–3240 is still intact and untouched. So what does this mean? We are in a macro-range, and price is simply rotating between key structural edges. 🔹 H4 View: The rejection from CPI at 3355–3365 created a micro CHoCH, signaling the bullish leg is now broken. After the 3345 fail, price dropped to 3320 — but it hasn’t tapped the full H4 demand at 3310–3300. H4 EMAs are tilting down, showing pressure. This isn’t a breakout. It’s a correction inside a larger range. 🔸 Key H4 Supply Zones: 3345–3355: liquidity reaction during CPI 3365–3375: untested OB + remaining buy-side liquidity 🔸 Key H4 Demand Zones: 3310–3300: mitigation zone from the CHoCH 3282–3270: deep discount and bullish continuation zone if current fails Structure-wise: We are in a correction, not a clean uptrend. That’s why every bullish attempt fails unless confirmed. 🔹 H1 Real Structure This is where things got tricky today. Price formed a bullish BOS back on July 14, when we first pushed into 3370. That was the start of the bullish leg. But today, we revisited the origin of that BOS, right near 3320. This is a sensitive zone. If it holds → it’s still a retracement. If it breaks → we lose the bullish structure and shift full bearish. So far, price touched 3320, bounced weakly, but has not printed a bullish BOS again. 🔸 H1 Zones of Interest: Supply above: 3340–3345: micro reaction zone 3355–3365: CPI origin rejection 3370–3375: final inducement Demand below: 3310–3300: current flip test 3282–3270: if this breaks, bias flips bearish Right now, we are between zones. Price is undecided. RSI is oversold, yes — but that alone is never a reason to buy. We need structure. We need BOS. 🔻 So… What’s the Truth Right Now? ✅ If 3310–3300 holds and price builds BOS on M15 → a clean long opportunity develops ❌ If 3310 breaks, and we lose 3300, structure fully shifts and opens downside to 3280–3270 On the upside: Only look for rejections from 3355–3365 and 3370–3375 Anything inside 3325–3340 is noise. No structure, no clean RR. Final Thoughts: Today’s move was not random. It was a classic CPI trap: induce longs early, trap shorts late, and leave everyone confused in the middle. But we don’t trade confusion — we wait for structure to align with the zone. If M15 or H1 prints a BOS from demand, that’s your green light. If price collapses under 3300, flip your bias. The chart already told you it wants lower. No predictions. Just real reaction. — 📣 If you like clear and simple plans, please like, comment, and follow. Stay focused. Structure always wins. 📢 Disclosure: This analysis was created using TradingView charts through my Trade Nation broker integration. As part of Trade Nation’s partner program, I may receive compensation for educational content shared using their tools. — With clarity, GoldFxMinds
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by GoldFxMinds
2
GBPCHF: Bearish Structure Aligns for Potential Sell Setups!Greetings Traders, In today’s analysis of GBPCHF, we observe that the institutional order flow is currently bearish, and as such, we aim to align with this bias by identifying selling opportunities from key institutional resistance zones. Higher Timeframe Context: Weekly TF: The weekly timeframe, which serves as our macro bias, is firmly bearish. This sentiment is reinforced on the H4 timeframe—our intermediate structure—which is also delivering consistent lower highs and lower lows. The alignment between these two timeframes strengthens our conviction to trade in the direction of institutional bearish order flow. Key Observations on H4: Re-delivered & Re-balanced Price Zone: Price has retraced into a previously balanced area that has now been re-delivered into, signaling institutional interest. Rejection from this zone adds to our bearish bias. Buy Stop Raid: Price action has swept H4 buy stops in this area, providing confirmation that smart money may have used this liquidity for order pairing into short positions. Entry Zone: The current rejection suggests a high-probability shorting opportunity from this region, provided confirmation on the lower timeframes. Trading Plan: Entry Strategy: Await confirmation at the current H4 resistance for short entries. Targets: First target is the H4 liquidity pool located at discount prices. The longer-term objective is the weekly liquidity pool, which represents the primary draw on liquidity. Continue to monitor price action closely, maintain patience for confirmation, and manage risk according to your trading plan. Kind Regards, The Architect 🏛️📉
Short
by The_Archi-tect
EURNZD: Bullish Setup Targeting Engineered Highs!Greetings Traders, In today’s analysis of EURNZD, we observe that the market is currently operating within bullish institutional order flow. It is therefore essential that we align our bias with this narrative by focusing on buying opportunities. Market Context: Higher Timeframe Alignment: The weekly timeframe is showing a bullish draw on liquidity, and this is confirmed by the H4 (intermediate) timeframe, which is also structurally bullish. This alignment between higher and intermediate timeframes provides strong confluence for long positions. Mitigation Block Support: Price has recently retraced into an H4 Mitigation Block—a key institutional support zone. This area represents a region where previous sell-side activity was initiated. Now that price has broken above it, institutions are likely using this retracement to mitigate prior sell positions and establish new buy orders. Trade Idea: Entry Strategy: Look for confirmation on the lower timeframes within the H4 mitigation block to initiate long positions in alignment with institutional order flow. Target Objective: The primary target is the relatively equal highs residing in premium pricing. These levels coincide with engineered trendline liquidity and failure swings, making them highly attractive profit-taking zones for institutions—where significant buy-side liquidity is expected to be absorbed. Stay patient and execute only upon clear confirmation signals. Kind Regards, The Architect 🏛️📊
Long
by The_Archi-tect
ETHFI Bulls Need to Flip This Level for Upside ContinuationCRYPTOCAP:ETHFI is still hovering around the key S/R zone and trading just below the major trendline resistance on the weekly timeframe. This area has been a strong rejection point in the past, so it’s a crucial level to watch. If we get a clean breakout and weekly close above this zone, it could trigger a breakout from the long-term downtrend, potentially kicking off a fresh bullish move. Keep a close eye. A decisive move is coming. DYOR, NFA
Long
by unichartz
Gold Holds Key Support Zone📊 Market Summary – Gold is currently trading at $3,338/oz, hovering near a key technical support level. – US Treasury yields remain elevated and the USD is strong, both pressuring gold; however, ongoing concerns over US–EU/Mexico trade tensions continue to support safe-haven demand. – The market is awaiting the upcoming US PPI data to determine the next directional move. 📉 Technical Analysis • Key Resistance: $3,372 – $3,375 (23.6% Fibonacci zone – short-term ceiling) • Nearest Support: $3,338 – $3,330 (tested and bounced at 3,338 per Oanda); deeper support at $3,325 – $3,320 if broken • EMA 9: Price is below the MA20/50/100 but above MA200 (H1); EMA9 is flat, suggesting a sideways/consolidation trend • Momentum / Indicators: • RSI around 44–52 – neutral to slightly bullish • MACD slightly positive; Stochastic above 50, hinting at short-term overbought conditions 📌 Outlook – Gold is holding above the 3,338–3,330 support zone. If this level holds and rate-cut expectations strengthen, the price may rebound toward 3,372–3,375. – However, if the USD continues to strengthen and PPI/CPI data surprises to the upside, gold could break support and head lower toward 3,325–3,320. 💡 Trade Strategy Proposal 🟣 SELL XAU/USD at 3,372 – 3,375 🎯 TP: ~ 40 / 80 / 200 pips ❌ SL: ~ 3,378 🟢 BUY XAU/USD at 3,330 – 3,333 🎯 TP: ~ 40 / 80 / 200 pips ❌ SL: ~ 3,327
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mian-FXSignals
Bitcoin May Face Short-Term Pullback📊 Market Summary – Bitcoin trades around $118,009, retreating from its intraday high of $118,330 . – The recent rally was primarily fueled by $14.8 billion inflows into spot BTC ETFs, lifting BTC to an ATH of $123,000 on July 14 – Profit-taking has triggered a ~3% correction – Market awaits key CPI/PPI inflation data and regulatory clarity in the US to guide next moves. 📉 Technical Analysis • Resistance: $123,000 – $123,100 (all-time high zone, weekly candle top). • Support: $114,000 – $115,000 (potential retest zone, IH&S neckline, CME gap) • EMA 9: Price remains above all major EMAs (10/20/50/100/200 day) – bullish short-term trend • Candles / Volume / Momentum: • Confirmed inverted head and shoulders breakout above ~$113,000 neckline • RSI ~74 suggests overbought; short term pullback possible • MACD bullish but on chain volumes are cooling, reflecting profit taking 📌 Outlook – Expect a short-term cooldown/pullback toward $114,000–$115,000 for support testing. – If support holds and ETF inflows continue, BTC could resume rally toward $130,000–$140,000 💡 Trade Strategy 🟣 SELL BTC/USD upon break below $117,000–$118,000 during retrace 🎯 TP: $115,000 ❌ SL: $118,500 🟢 BUY BTC/USD at support $114,000–$115,000 🎯 TP: $120,000 – $123,000 ❌ SL: $113,000
OANDA:BTCUSDShort
by Mian-FXSignals
2
Signal-to-Noise Ratio: The Most Misunderstood Truth in Trading█ Signal-to-Noise Ratio: The Most Misunderstood Truth in Quant Trading Most traders obsess over indicators, signals, models, and strategies. But few ask the one question that defines whether any of it actually works: ❝ How strong is the signal — compared to the noise? ❞ Welcome to the concept of Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) — the invisible force behind why some strategies succeed and most fail. █ What Is Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR)? ⚪ In simple terms: Signal = the real, meaningful, repeatable part of a price move Noise = random fluctuations, market chaos, irrelevant variation SNR = Signal Strength / Noise Level If your signal is weak and noise is high, your edge gets buried. If your signal is strong and noise is low, you can extract alpha with confidence. In trading, SNR is like trying to hear a whisper in a hurricane. The whisper is your alpha. The hurricane is the market. █ Why SNR Matters (More Than Sharpe, More Than Accuracy) Most strategies die not because they’re logically flawed — but because they’re trying to extract signal in a low SNR environment. Financial markets are dominated by noise. The real edge (if it exists) is usually tiny and fleeting. Even strong-looking backtests can be false positives created by fitting noise. Every quant failure story you’ve ever heard — overfitting, false discoveries, bad AI models — starts with misunderstanding the signal-to-noise ratio. █ SNR in the Age of AI Machine learning struggles in markets because: Most market data has very low SNR The signal changes over time (nonstationarity) AI is powerful enough to learn anything — including pure noise This means unless you’re careful, your AI will confidently “discover” patterns that have no predictive value whatsoever. Smart quants don’t just train models. They fight for SNR — every input, feature, and label is scrutinized through this lens. █ How to Measure It (Sharpe, t-stat, IC) You can estimate a strategy’s SNR with: Sharpe Ratio: Signal = mean return, Noise = volatility t-Statistic: Measures how confident you are that signal ≠ 0 Information Coefficient (IC): Correlation between forecast and realized return 👉 A high Sharpe or t-stat suggests strong signal vs noise 👉 A low value means your “edge” might just be noise in disguise █ Real-World SNR: Why It's So Low in Markets The average daily return of SPX is ~0.03% The daily standard deviation is ~1% That's signal-to-noise of 1:30 — and that's for the entire market, not a niche alpha. Now imagine what it looks like for your scalping strategy, your RSI tweak, or your AI momentum model. This is why most trading signals don’t survive live markets — the noise is just too loud. █ How to Build Strategies With Higher SNR To survive as a trader, you must engineer around low SNR. Here's how: 1. Combine signals One weak signal = low SNR 100 uncorrelated weak signals = high aggregate SNR 2. Filter noise before acting Use volatility filters, regime detection, thresholds Trade only when signal strength exceeds noise level 3. Test over longer horizons Short-term = more noise Long-term = signal has more time to emerge 4. Avoid excessive optimization Every parameter you tweak risks modeling noise Simpler systems = less overfit = better SNR integrity 5. Validate rigorously Walk-forward, OOS testing, bootstrapping — treat your model like it’s guilty until proven innocent █ Low SNR = High Uncertainty In low-SNR environments: Alpha takes years to confirm (t-stat grows slowly) Backtests are unreliable (lucky noise often looks like skill) Drawdowns happen randomly (even good strategies get wrecked short-term) This is why experience, skepticism, and humility matter more than flashy charts. If your signal isn’t strong enough to consistently rise above noise, it doesn’t matter how elegant it looks. █ Overfitting Is What Happens When You Fit the Noise If you’ve read Why Your Backtest Lies , you already know the dangers of overfitting — when a strategy is tuned too perfectly to historical data and fails the moment it meets reality. ⚪ Here’s the deeper truth: Overfitting is the natural consequence of working in a low signal-to-noise environment. When markets are 95% noise and you optimize until everything looks perfect? You're not discovering a signal. You're just fitting past randomness — noise that will never repeat the same way again. ❝ The more you optimize in a low-SNR environment, the more confident you become in something that isn’t real. ❞ This is why so many “flawless” backtests collapse in live trading. Because they never captured signal — they captured noise. █ Final Word Quant trading isn’t about who can code the most indicators or build the deepest neural nets. It’s about who truly understands this: ❝ In a world full of noise, only the most disciplined signal survives. ❞ Before you build your next model, launch your next strategy, or chase your next setup… Ask this: ❝ Am I trading signal — or am I trading noise? ❞ If you don’t know the answer, you're probably doing the latter. ----------------- Disclaimer The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
Education
by Zeiierman
16
NVDA SELL SELL SELLSELL NVDA at any price now, riding it back down to 93.00 to 77.00 as Profit Targets, Stop Loss will be determine later! If anyone likes long mumbo jumbo garbage analysis, than this is NOT for you. Also, if you are afraid of risk, failure, and want only a 100% sure thing, than run as fast as you can from the market, because the market is NOT a sure thing, so it is definitely NOT for you. WARNING: This is just opinions of the market and its only for journaling purpose. This information and any publication here are NOT meant to be, and do NOT constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations. Trading any market instrument is a RISKY business, so do your own due diligence, and trade at your own risk. You can loose all of your money and much more.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by pstock123
1
Market Trends from 2020 to 2025How Bitcoin, NASDAQ, Gold, and Silver Really Performed Since 2020 It’s been a wild few years in the markets. From early 2020 to mid-2025, investors have had to navigate uncertainty, changing interest rates, tech booms, and the rise of digital assets. Looking back, it’s clear that some assets took off while others just quietly held their ground. So, what happened if you had invested in Bitcoin, the NASDAQ, gold, or silver five years ago? Bitcoin (BTC): +1,297.87% No surprise here. Bitcoin absolutely stole the show. Despite all the ups and downs (and there were plenty), BTC ended up with nearly 1,300% gains. It had a huge surge in late 2020 and 2021, crashed hard, and then climbed even higher starting in 2023. This kind of return doesn’t come without risk. Bitcoin was by far the most volatile of the group. But for those who held on, the reward was massive. It also marked a big shift in how people think about money and investing. "Crypto is no longer just a fringe idea." NASDAQ: +175.26% Tech stocks had a strong run, too. The NASDAQ gained around 175%, driven by innovation, digital expansion, and eventually, the AI boom. While there were some bumps along the way (especially when interest rates went up), the general trend was up and to the right. Unlike Bitcoin, the NASDAQ was more predictable, less explosive. Gold: +127.39% Gold did what gold usually does. It held its value and slowly moved higher. Over five years, it returned about 127%, which is pretty solid for a “safe haven” asset. It didn’t grab headlines like crypto or tech stocks, but it stayed reliable through the chaos. Silver: +124.50% Silver had a similar story to gold, but with a bit more fluctuation. It benefited from both investor demand and industrial use, and it ended up with just over 124% in gains. Not bad for a metal that often gets overshadowed by its shinier cousin ;). What It All Means If you were in Bitcoin, you saw huge gains, but also had to stomach major volatility. Tech investors did well too, especially those who stayed in through the dips. Meanwhile, gold and silver offered steadier, more defensive returns. One big takeaway: the investment landscape is changing. Traditional assets still matter, but new ones like crypto are reshaping what portfolios can look like. In the end, it’s about balancing risk and reward! and figuring out what kind of investor you are.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by melikatrader94
12
NVDA SELLSELL NVDA at 149.00 to 163.00, riding it back down to 93.00 to 77.00 as Profit Targets, Stop Loss is at 172.00! If anyone likes long mumbo jumbo garbage analysis, than this is NOT for you. Also, if you are afraid of risk, failure, and want only a 100% sure thing, than run as fast as you can from the markets, because the markets are NOT a sure thing, so it is definitely NOT for you. WARNING: This is just my opinions of the market and its only for journaling purpose. This information and any publication here are NOT meant to be, and do NOT constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations. Trading any market instrument is a RISKY business, so do your own due diligence, and trade at your own risk. You can loose all of your money and much more.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by pstock123
3
Clean BTC Trade – Bounce from Key Trendline SupportHi traders! , Analyzing BTC/USD on the 30-minute timeframe, we can observe that price is respecting the ascending channel and reacting to the dynamic trendline support (blue line). This bounce, aligned with prior structure, signals a potential bullish continuation. 🔹 Entry: 116,249 🔹 Take Profit (TP): 119,434 🔹 Stop Loss (SL): 113,105 Price remains above the 200 EMA while continuing to respect the ascending trendline, signaling sustained bullish structure. The RSI is showing a bullish divergence, which supports the idea of upward momentum. We also saw a strong reaction at the pivot point (115,373), and a bullish engulfing candle formed right near the trendline — adding further confirmation to this potential long setup. This long setup presents a favorable risk/reward ratio within the context of the broader trend. Targeting a clean break above previous resistance and return to the R1 zone. ⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk and always use proper risk management
OKX:BTCUSDLong
by FXOnTop
ETH to $4K ? Whales Accumulate as ETFs Break Records🕞 Timeframe: 4H . 🟢 Bias: Bullish 1. 🧭 Fundamental Overview: 📈 Massive Institutional Inflows: Ethereum ETFs have recorded over $1.2 billion in net inflows this July, with $908M just in the week ending July 11. This strong demand from institutional players (notably through ETHA and Bitwise) has pushed ETF AUM above $13.5 billion. 🏢 Corporate Accumulation: Companies such as SharpLink Gaming have begun adding ETH to their balance sheets. SharpLink's 10,000 ETH (~$49M) purchase highlights growing corporate adoption of Ethereum as a store of value and strategic reserve. 🛠️ Ecosystem Resilience: Ethereum continues to lead in network upgrades (e.g., Dencun), institutional DeFi, and tokenized assets—strengthening the long-term fundamentals of the chain. 2. 🧠 Sentiment & On‑Chain Metrics 🏦 Institutional Sentiment: Ethereum ETFs have seen 12 straight weeks of inflows, outperforming Bitcoin in institutional allocation growth (ETH: 1.6%, BTC: 0.8%). 🐋 Whale Activity & Exchange Flows: Declining ETH balances on exchanges suggest accumulation and reduced sell pressure. Whales and smart money are taking positions. 📊 Public Sentiment: Bullish expectations remain strong amid price consolidation above key levels and positive ETF momentum. 3. 🔼 Key Levels: Support: $2,770 and $2,500 (major trendline and psychological level). 4.🎯 Price Targets: Short‑term (2–4 weeks): If ETH breaks above $3,150: next targets at $3,400 and $3,750. Medium‑term (by end of Q3 2025): ETH could reach $3,500 with potential upside to $4,000. . . . ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes and not financial advice. Please do your own research and risk management. . ✅ If you like this analysis, don't forget to like 👍, follow 🧠, and share your thoughts below 💬!
Long
by Apollo_Capital