US30 Bearish IdeaAs we can see this is a anticipation of us being in a quarterly shift in the markets and having an assumption that we had a retracement up to collect more orders for smart money to go short. We have relative strength with US30 against both NASDAQ and the SP500. We have seen resistance in our premium arrays of our weekly FVG and daily order block
* Fundamental analysis:
We are are having a shift in our bond yields which could potentially effect the dollar giving it strength and you add the fact that dollar is under valued when we have a stronger dollar rate than the rest of the basket currencies we could see it negatively effect the Dow this quarter. The Dow is very over valued and we have had consistent quantitative easing from the Fed and the Fed balance sheet has been still consistently decreasing. The commercial interest have also seen a great rise of buying dollar and if dollar is being bought up then something would need to be sold.
Beyond Technical Analysis
### **Bearish Analysis of Ethereum (ETH)**### **Bearish Analysis of Ethereum (ETH)**
Here is a bearish outlook on Ethereum (ETH) based on current market dynamics, incorporating technical, liquidity, and fundamental factors:
---
### **1. Technical Resistance & Topping Signals**
- **Key Resistance Zone**: ETH has repeatedly tested the **$3,000–$3,080** resistance level but failed to sustain a breakout. If it cannot hold above this range, a pullback toward **$2,865** or even **$2,710** is likely.
- **Daily Chart Topping Pattern**: Some analysts suggest the current rally may form a "daily top." While an immediate reversal is unlikely, the trend could shift to bearish dominance, with potential resistance near **$3,160**.
- **Overbought Risk**: The RSI has exceeded 70, indicating short-term overbought conditions. A loss of momentum could trigger a correction.
---
### **2. Heavy Shorting by Hedge Funds & Basis Arbitrage**
- **Surge in Short Positions**: CFTC data shows hedge funds have amassed **$1.73 billion** in ETH short positions on CME, marking a record high in net leveraged short exposure.
- **Basis Arbitrage Strategy**: Institutions are executing delta-neutral strategies by shorting futures while buying spot ETFs (annualized arbitrage ~9.5%). However, heightened volatility (e.g., a "Black Thursday"-like event) could trigger a short squeeze.
- **Whale Shorting Activity**: High-leverage (4.1x) short positions by whales (e.g., 0xSifu) reflect market skepticism about ETH's long-term competitiveness.
---
### **3. Fundamental Weaknesses**
- **Ecosystem Underperformance**: In 2025, ETH was among the worst-performing top-five crypto assets (down 51% YTD), lagging behind competitors like Solana. DeFi TVL has dropped **43%**, signaling declining user engagement.
- **Staking Risks**: While **29% of ETH is staked**, reducing liquid supply, high staking ratios may constrain market liquidity. A price drop could trigger panic unstaking.
- **Institutional Selling Pressure**: The Ethereum Foundation recently sold **1,206.7 ETH (~$3.6 million)**, fueling concerns about insider divestment.
---
### **4. Market Sentiment & Capital Flows**
- **BTC Dominance Pressure**: Bitcoin’s recent all-time high (**$118,000**) may divert capital away from ETH and other altcoins.
- **Extreme Short Positioning**: ETH’s open interest shows **62% short bias**, the highest since 2021. While this raises short-squeeze risks, it also reflects doubts about the sustainability of the rally.
---
### **5. Key Risks & Outlook**
- **Downside Triggers**:
- A break below **$2,865** could accelerate a drop toward **$2,530**.
- A Fed policy shift or global liquidity tightening.
- Competitors (e.g., Solana) gaining further market share.
- **Potential Reversal Signals**:
- A sustained breakout above **$3,080** may force short covering.
- If the **ETH/BTC ratio** surpasses **0.026 BTC**, an altcoin season could emerge.
---
### **Conclusion**
In the short term, ETH faces headwinds from technical resistance, institutional shorting, and capital rotation into Bitcoin. The bearish thesis holds for now, but extreme short positioning raises the risk of a squeeze. Traders should monitor:
- The **$3,080** resistance and **$2,865** support levels.
- Bitcoin’s market dominance and macroeconomic policy shifts.
### **Bearish Analysis of DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)**### **Bearish Analysis of DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)**
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has recently shown a weak trend, with a prevailing bearish sentiment in the market. The primary factors driving this outlook include:
### **1. Rising Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts**
- Recent weak U.S. inflation data (such as May's PPI and CPI) have reinforced market expectations that the Fed may cut rates as early as September.
- Morgan Stanley predicts the Fed could implement a cumulative 175 basis points in rate cuts by 2025, further reducing the dollar's appeal.
### **2. Trade Policy Uncertainty**
- The Trump administration has recently threatened new tariffs (e.g., 30% on imports) against the EU, Mexico, and other nations, escalating global trade tensions.
- Wall Street institutions warn that Trump’s tariff policies could trigger capital outflows, putting additional pressure on the dollar.
### **3. Growing Recession Concerns**
- Fears of a U.S. economic "hard landing" are intensifying, particularly due to deteriorating corporate orders, earnings forecasts, and capital expenditure plans, which could weaken the dollar’s safe-haven status.
- The expanding U.S. fiscal deficit (reaching $1.36 trillion this fiscal year) is further eroding confidence in the dollar.
### **4. Technical Weakness**
- Since the beginning of 2025, DXY has fallen by approximately **8.4%**, marking its worst annual start on record.
- The index currently faces key resistance at the **97.80-98.00** range. A failure to break above this level could lead to further declines toward **96.50** or lower.
- RSI and MACD indicators suggest weak short-term rebound momentum, maintaining a bearish bias.
### **5. Risk of Capital Outflows**
- The U.S. "**899 Asset Tax**" proposal could increase costs for foreign investors holding dollar-denominated assets, potentially accelerating global divestment from the dollar.
- Goldman Sachs estimates that the dollar remains **overvalued by ~15%**, leaving room for further depreciation.
### **Outlook**
In the near term, DXY’s movement will depend on:
- **June CPI Data** (A lower-than-expected reading could reinforce rate cut expectations, further weakening the dollar).
- **Trade Negotiation Developments** (Escalating tensions may trigger risk-off sentiment, while easing could relieve dollar pressure).
- **Fed Policy Signals** (More explicit dovish guidance could extend the dollar’s downtrend).
**Conclusion:** Given multiple bearish factors, the U.S. Dollar Index is likely to remain weak in the short term. Traders should closely monitor key economic data and policy shifts.
XAUUSD Analysis : Gold's Bullish Comeback + Target📊 Chart Overview:
Gold has shown a technically strong structure on the 4-hour time frame, respecting multiple layers of support, while slowly shifting momentum in favor of buyers. What stands out most in this chart is the parabolic curve formation at the bottom, labeled the "Black Mind Curve Support" — a key psychological zone that has guided price action back to the upside.
Let’s walk through the key elements and why this current setup deserves your attention:
🧠 1. Black Mind Curve Support – Bullish Base Formation:
This curved structure at the bottom is no ordinary pattern. It reflects gradual accumulation and buyer dominance, often seen in textbook rounded bottom formations. The market printed multiple higher lows along this curve, suggesting a deliberate and patient entry by smart money.
Whenever price touched this curve, it found strong demand — a clear sign that the bulls are defending their territory.
🧱 2. Channel Support + SR Interchange – Historical Demand:
Zooming into the left side of the chart, you’ll notice how price dropped into a converging zone where a descending channel support intersected with a historical support/resistance (SR) level. This confluence created a high-probability buy zone — the very origin of the current bullish wave.
This channel breakout also represents a structural shift, marking the beginning of bullish control.
🔁 3. Major SR – Interchange Zone:
One of the most critical areas in this chart is the Major SR Interchange zone, where former resistance was broken and later retested as support. This is a classic support-resistance flip — the type of zone institutional traders watch closely.
This level currently acts as a launchpad for bulls, reinforcing bullish structure and offering low-risk long opportunities when respected.
⚔️ 4. Minor BOS (Break of Structure):
Recently, the price broke above a short-term lower high, indicating a minor bullish break of structure. This is confirmation that momentum has shifted in the short term. Such BOS events are powerful signals, especially when backed by curve support and SR flips.
This also paves the way for the price to push into the next liquidity pocket above.
🧭 5. Central Zone – 50% Equilibrium:
The horizontal line drawn around the $3,330 level marks the central 50% zone — the midpoint of this entire price range. This acts as a natural equilibrium zone where buyers and sellers usually fight for control.
Price is now trading above this zone, giving the upper hand to bulls. Holding above the 50% line increases the probability of continuation to higher resistance levels.
🧨 6. Target Area – "Next Reversal Zone":
Looking ahead, the $3,370 – $3,380 range is labeled as the Next Reversal Zone. This is where sellers previously stepped in and rejected price hard. However, if momentum remains strong and bulls can push price into this zone again, we might witness either:
A sharp pullback (if bearish reaction occurs), or
A major breakout above toward the $3,400 key resistance (if buyers overpower).
This is the zone to watch for either short-term profit taking or potential trend continuation setups.
📌 Key Technical Levels:
Immediate Support: $3,330 – $3,315 (Central + Retest Zone)
Major Support: $3,290 (Mind Curve Base)
Short-Term Resistance: $3,370 – $3,380 (Reversal/Reaction Zone)
Bullish Continuation Target: $3,400+
📒 Conclusion & Strategy Insight:
This chart presents a textbook bullish reversal setup with clean structural progression:
Price formed a rounded base
Broke out of previous range resistance
Retested multiple key SR zones
Now targeting liquidity above
The bulls are in control as long as the price remains above the curve and the major SR zone. A retracement into $3,330 could offer an ideal long entry, targeting the $3,370–$3,380 zone with tight risk.
✅ Suggested Trading Approach:
Buy Opportunities: On pullbacks toward $3,330–$3,315 with confirmation
Sell Watch: Near $3,375–$3,380 if bearish divergence or strong rejection appears
Invalidation: Break and close below $3,290 curve support
🧠 Final Thoughts:
Gold continues to build a strong bullish base. The parabolic nature of the support curve suggests rising demand. As long as support holds, the bulls may take price to fresh highs in the coming days.
Keep an eye on how price behaves around the Next Reversal Zone — that will reveal whether this bullish rally is ready for a breakout or a cooldown.
YOU MUST BE A CONFLUENCE FINDER, let me explain.......All the information you need to find a high probability trade are in front of you on the charts so build your trading decisions on 'the facts' of the chart NOT what you think or what you want to happen or even what you heard will happen. If you have enough facts telling you to trade in a certain direction and therefore enough confluence to take a trade, then this is how you will gain consistency in you trading and build confidence. Check out my trade idea!!
www.tradingview.com
Portfolio Destruction In Bull Markets = Greed Without Strategy When the market is bullish, everyone thinks whatever they buy will make a profit.
But does a rising price really mean you’re winning? Or are you just chasing an illusion?
What kills most traders is greedy trading without a clear plan even when the market is green!
Hello✌
Spend 3 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material.
🎯 Analytical Insight on Dogecoin :
🚀 After breaking out of its daily downtrend channel, BINANCE:DOGEUSDT is now testing a strong support zone near the 0.5 Fibonacci level. This setup suggests the potential for a further 20% upside, with the main target around 0.24.
Now, let's dive into the educational section,
🧨 When the market is green fear should grow
In bearish markets people are cautious But in bull runs everyone fears missing out
This phase is exactly what pumpers love Why Because they know people are ready to chase every green candle
Are you actually profiting or just running after profits
If you do not have a strategy if your exit points are not clear if you do not know when to take profits
You are giving the game away to others
🕳️ Illusion of control traders’ silent enemy
When a few trades go well you think you have got the market figured out But actually the market has you
This sense of control mixed with greed leads to heavy risking skipping stop losses or riding fake pumps to the end
What is the solution Only strategy No influencer hype no social media noise no candle colors.
📊 Smart use of TradingView’s tools:
Many traders decide with emotions not data
But with a few simple TradingView tools you can base your decisions on data not feelings
One of the most practical indicators to spot overbought conditions or excessive greed is the RSI
When RSI goes above seventy it means the market is in a hype phase That is when many blindly jump in
A simple method Add RSI to your favorite crypto chart and check if a pump happened in the overbought zone
Another tool Volume Profile shows you the price levels with the highest trading volume
When price hits an area with very low volume behind it be cautious This could be a fake top
A golden tip Use TradingView Alerts
Instead of constantly staring at charts set alerts for when RSI passes seventy five or price reaches a suspicious zone Then get notified instantly
This way you let data guide you not momentary excitement
And this is exactly where you separate yourself from an unplanned greedy trader
💡 Summary and advice
Trading without strategy whether in bull or bear markets puts your capital at risk sooner or later
You can’t remove greed but you can control it
TradingView tools exist for exactly this reason to help you think before you act
Profit comes from planning not from chasing the next pump
✨ Need a little love!
We pour love into every post your support keeps us inspired! 💛 Don’t be shy, we’d love to hear from you on comments. Big thanks , Mad Whale 🐋
📜Please make sure to do your own research before investing, and review the disclaimer provided at the end of each post.
July 15 2025 -Sell Limit ActivatedGood day, folks!
Just sharing another learning from my ideas here:
EURUSD has been in a bearish structure since July 14, 2025 (1H Intraday). As you know, I always look for clear supply or demand validation before placing a sell or buy limit order. On the chart, you can see a valid supply zone that was generated on Monday. After that, I waited for a clear move during the Tuesday London and New York sessions, with the CPI news release acting as a catalyst for more volatility. The trade came to fruition during the New York session on Tuesday. (See chart for the complete breakdown of the movement and entry.)
RR: 1:3
Another Wyckoff schematics and structure analysis.
EURUSD Bearish ideaWe are in a weekly fair value gap that we have balance and potentially collected orders to prepare for a potential drop in price. We are anticipating a quarterly shift for the month of July were we could be targeting downside liquidity that is in open float.
* Fundamentals:
-Interest rate differentials shows us that USD interest rate of 4.5 is higher than the interest rate EUR 2.15 which lead to the longer fundamental frame work of price correcting to the higher dollar rate to the euro.
-The COT report also indicates to us that there is huge buying of Dollar by the commercials and a huge amount of selling of the EUR by commercials which can lead us to assume potential weaker dollar.
*Targeting:
-We are looking for the low of last month (June) to be taken out as well as even potentially reaching to the implied weekly fair value gap.
US30Y Bullish ideaThis is a potential idea of the 30 year bond yield potentially having movement to the upside. We have already reached into a daily volume imbalance and weekly volume imbalance. We also have a monthly order block that is acting as support combined with our volume imbalance levels. We also have relative strength with the US30Y against the US10Y and US5Y. Could be a potential idea to look for bullish ideas with the the fact that we are in a potential point were we could have a Quarterly shift.
*Targeting
A move to the upside were we have buyside liquidity and the 4H fair value gap.
Gold – Bullish Structure Confirmed | July 16 Outlook🟢 Gold (XAUUSD) – July 16 Analysis | Uptrend Resumed After H4 OB Test
As outlined in our previous post — Gold – H4 Structure at Key Decision Point | July 14 Outlook , price has now tested the H4 order block near 3320, which we marked as a high-probability reversal zone.
Following this, the market has shown clear signs of strength — with both internal structure shift and a Break of Structure (BoS) on M15, confirming that the uptrend has resumed.
🔍 Structure Alignment:
✅ H4: Bullish continuation after OB test
✅ M15: ChoCH + BoS → confirms trend alignment with H4
📌 Key Intraday Levels to Watch:
🟩 3335–3333 (M15 Order Block & Breaker Level):
→ A short-term OB just before our main POI
→ If price respects this zone with LTF confirmation (M1 Micro-ChoCH + BoS), we may plan an early long entry
🟩 3327.7–3329.4 (Main M15 POI Zone):
→ High-probability continuation zone
→ On retest + LTF confirmation → plan for long setup
📈 Trade Plan:
→ Watch 3335–3333 OB first
→ If respected with M1 confirmation, early entry is valid
→ If that zone fails, wait for price to revisit 3327–3329 POI
→ Same confirmation rules apply
In both cases, target new HH, in line with current trend momentum
📖 When price respects structure and confirms behavior, don’t second-guess — follow the process.
📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror
The Trade Desk: Why the Sudden Surge?The Trade Desk (TTD) recently experienced a significant stock surge. This rise stems from both immediate market catalysts and robust underlying business fundamentals. A primary driver was its inclusion in the prestigious S&P 500 index, replacing Ansys Inc. This move, effective July 18, immediately triggered mandated buying from index funds and ETFs. Such inclusion validates TTD's market importance and enhances its visibility and liquidity. This artificial demand floor, coupled with TTD's $37 billion market capitalization, underscores its growing influence within the financial landscape.
Beyond index inclusion, TTD benefits from a significant structural shift in advertising. Programmatic advertising is rapidly replacing traditional media buying, expected to account for nearly 90% of digital display ad spending by 2025. This growth is driven by advertisers' need for transparent ROI, publishers avoiding "walled gardens" through platforms like TTD's OpenPath, and AI-driven innovation. TTD's AI platform, Kokai, greatly lowers acquisition costs and enhances reach, resulting in over 95% client retention. Strategic partnerships in high-growth areas like Connected TV (CTV) further reinforce TTD's leadership.
Financially, The Trade Desk demonstrates remarkable resilience and growth. Its Q2 2025 revenue growth of 17% outpaces the broader programmatic market. Adjusted EBITDA margins hit 38%, reflecting strong operational efficiency. While TTD trades at a premium valuation - over 13x 2025 sales targets-its high profitability, substantial cash flow, and historical investor returns support this. Despite intense competition and regulatory scrutiny, TTD's consistent market share gains and strategic positioning in an expanding digital ad market make it a compelling long-term investment.
EURUSD at Daily Demand After CPI – Bullish Setup in PlayHello Traders,
I hope everyone is having a fantastic week!
Today on EURUSD, price is trading within the daily flip demand zone following yesterday’s USD CPI news release. While I usually avoid trading during CPI events due to the high volatility and unpredictable price spikes—often driven by algorithms and emotional retail reactions—yesterday did present a valid short opportunity.
Now that price is back in the daily demand zone, a bullish setup using lower time frame (LTF) confirmation offers a high-probability trade. We could see a decent push up toward the nearby daily supply zone.
GJ Bullish Shift After Daily FVG MitigationHello Traders,
Hope everyone is having a fantastic week!
Today on GBPJPY, price has shifted the 4-hour swing structure to bullish following the mitigation of the daily Fair Value Gap (FVG)—a strong sign of a change in character (CHoCH). From this point, price may aim for the daily weak buy-side liquidity (BSL). Use your lower time frames (LTF) to identify bullish patterns that support this long trade setup.
GOLD has entered a NEW BULL CYCLE this month! GET LOADED now!GOLD, has been on a consistent ascend since 2k levels hitting a series of ATH taps week after week.
As with any parabolic event -- a trim down is warranted.
After hitting its ATH zone at 3500, gold significantly corrected back to 38.2 fib levels at 3100 area. 38.2 fib levels has been acting as a strong support for GOLD for quite a bit and as expected buyers has started to converge and positioned themselves back again for that upside continuation -- long term.
After hitting this fib key level gold has been making consistent higher lows on the daily conveying clear intentions on its directional narrative -- to go NORTH.
As of this present, July 2025, GOLD has seen renewed elevation in momentum metrics signifying definitive blueprint towards its next upside move.
Based on our diagram above. WE have now entered a new bull cycle that only transpires every 6 months. The last cycles happened on July 2024, January 2025, then presently July 2025 which is in progress. This is very special as we dont get to see this bullish setup on a regular basis.
Ideal seeding zone is at the current range of 3300-3350.
Mid-Long Term Target at 3400
TAYOR.
Trade safely. Market is Market.
Not financial advice.
XRP THE $2.99 "NUKE" LEVEL Could Send Price To $30 to $100+ Primary Expansion Window: July 20 – Aug 3, 2025 (potential extension to Sept 20)
XRP is positioned for a structural regime shift. The pivotal $2.99 "nuke" level is on watch a clean break through this price isn't just an ignition, it's the catalyst for explosive directional flow. As algorithms flips long above $2.99, Wave 1 is triggered, opening accelerated risk toward the $30 target during this active expansion window.
Vector Confluence Rays: Dynamic Support/Resistance. order flow and price memory become most active these are potential launch points for expansion or resistance.
Nuke Level ($2.99): The term signals more than a trigger it's the critical inflection where algo's initiate volatility and momentum. When breached, price will accelerate.
What’s Next After Wave 1?
Second Expansion Window: November to December 2025
When momentum and higher timeframe structure persist, a larger breakout framework comes into play with targets of $60, $100, and, in extreme scenarios, $1,500+ if a full structural unlock unfolds.
Key Takeaways
$2.99 is the “nuke” level: The breakout ignition for Wave 1. Algo's are highly likely to accelerate above this line, targeting upwards to $30 within the first expansion window.
Lower probability predictive models do show price can reach $60 Wave 1 in extreme cases.
Expansion windows defined: First window live July–September; second window November–December for further upside potential.
Above $2.99: Upside is highly probable the algo is primed and with years of price suppression means acceleration is very likely once this level breaks.
-Neverwishing
Global M2 Money Supply (70/84/90 Day offset) and $150k BTCI'm using Global M2 slightlty different than most here, and showing it behaves differently during different periods of the cycle.
Many people say M2 leads Bitcoin by 10-12 weeks (70 - 84 Days) and I've seen periods where it does... But in this phase of the bull-run 90 days is working best.
We can see the dip in M2 around now coinciding with the drop in Bitcoin prices.
Of course, these are not directly correlated and can't be relied upon as predictive.
But it's following pretty close, and overall looks great for further upside!
I'll follow up with a video on this if anybody is interested.
FFM -- ASX – Breakout Consolidation in Focus
📝 Description
Firefly Metals is setting up a classic breakout continuation scenario after reclaiming the $1.00 psychological level and breaking the long-term trendline resistance.
🔹 Key Observations:
• Trendline Break: The descending trendline from the prior high was decisively breached, signaling a structural shift.
• Accumulation Zone: Price has consolidated in a tight range above $1.00, forming a bullish flag or box accumulation.
• EMA Cluster Support: Both the 15 and 60 EMAs are aligned below the consolidation, providing dynamic support.
🔹 Potential Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Continuation:
A clean breakout above the top of the blue box could trigger a momentum rally toward $1.30 and ultimately the $1.38–$1.50 resistance levels.
✅ Deeper Pullback:
If price loses the $1.00 support decisively, a retracement to retest the breakout base is possible.
Trade Plan:
I am monitoring for a confirmed breakout candle with volume expansion to validate the continuation thesis.
• Entry trigger above the range high ($1.10 area)
• Stops below recent swing low / $1.00 level
• First target: $1.30 resistance
As always, risk management first—no breakout, no trade.
#MJTrading
#FFM #FireflyMetals #ASXTrading #BreakoutSetup #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #TradingPlan #ChartOfTheDay #AustralianStocks #MomentumTrading #MJTrading
Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Wednesday, 16th July 2024)Bias: No Bias
USD News(Red Folder):
-CPI m/m
-PPI m/m
Notes:
- No bottom yet on daily
- Looking for price to tap 0.5 fib or 0.236 fib
- Potential BUYSELL if there's
confirmation on lower timeframe
- Pivot point: 3380, 3300
Disclaimer:
This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
GOLD LONG FROM RISING SUPPORT|
✅GOLD is trading in an uptrend
Which makes me bullish biased
And the price is retesting the rising support
Thus, a rebound and a move up is expected
With the target of retesting the level above at 3,350$
LONG🚀
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.