Beyond Technical Analysis
Gold Tokyo Trap Setup: Liquidity Reversal vs. Month-Long Threat 📈 Technical Summary:
The market has been compressing between a major supply and demand matrix, with today’s setup showing:
🔹 Zones:
• Zone of Interest: 3390.55
• Rejection Zone: 3374.24–3343.78
• Minor Demand (Retail Support): 3291.41
• High Demand Zone (Strong Reaction Base): 3251.95–3240.73
• Major Support: 3212.91
• ⚠️ Threat Zone: 3169.61 – Month-Long Resting Liquidity
🧠 Setup Logic:
• Liquidity sweep likely in Tokyo session
• Expecting trap-based reversal from either 3291 or 3251
• Short-term long biased setup unless 3169 breaks, which opens macro bearish flow
⸻
📰 News & Macro Confirmation (July 16, 2025):
📌 Source: Kitco News – July 16, 2025
✅ Bullish Short-Term Bias:
• Fed Pause confirmed: No rate hike, which weakens the USD and favors gold
• China’s economic slowdown — driving safe-haven flows into gold
• Gold remains firm above 3320 USD despite global pressure, signaling underlying demand
• Investors positioning for a potential stimulus in China — bullish for commodities
⸻
🎯 Forecast Summary:
“Gold may tap into retail support zones (3291 → 3251) to attract longs before NY session upside. Macro data supports bullish bias short-term. But watch 3169 — below that, gold opens the gate to structural flush.”
⸻
Double Calendar Option Spread on MMMUsing a double calendar spread to profit from price movement in either direction after earnings announcement in 3 days time (18 July) for MMM.
These trades can be extremely profitable if one expects movement after earnings.
Selling both a Put and Call at high (pre-earnings IV) makes this option trade relatively cheap, since the purchase for the other Call and Puts are after earnings announcement with lower IV
Selling a Call with Strike $167 for 18th July
Selling a Put with Strike $145 for 18th July
Buying a Call with Strike $175 for 29 Aug
Buying a Put with Strike $140 fro 29 Aug
Total net debit and max loss $125 for 1 contract
Max profit $ 287
For more details on these type of Option trades you can search for Strategic Options Trader on Substack
CRUDE OIL Bearish Flag Breakout 📉CRUDE OIL Bearish Flag Breakout!
⭕Sell!
__
#USOIL is trading in a local
Downtrend and formed a bearish
Flag pattern and now we are
Seeing a bearish breakout
So we are bearish biased
And we will be expecting
A further bearish move down
Sell!🔽
—
NVIDIA -- Major Resistance // Confluence of 3 FactorsHello Traders!
WOW... This chart is quite incredible I must say.
It's amazing how price is currently at an exact point where 2 major trendlines converge which also nearly coincides with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. Price closed almost to the penny just above the major trendline connecting the prior highs. It will be very interesting to see what price does over the next few days.
What Does These Converging Trendlines Mean?: Think of a trendline like a wall... Depending on how "strong" the trendline is, this wall could be made from wood all the way through to vibranium straight from Captain Americas shield! These two trendlines converging would likely resemble a steel wall and would be extremely hard to penetrate. (Although there are no gurantees in trading)
What To Watch For: I will be watching to see if price can both break and confirm above both resistance trendlines. It will take MEGA buying pressure to accomplish this and would likely mean continuation to the upside. If price cannot break and confirm above then we will likely see a large retrace to support.
Thanks everyone and best of luck on your trading journeys!
Binance Holds 25% of Exchange ETH: Smart Accumulation?According to cryptoonchain’s analysis of on-chain data from CryptoQuant, Binance now holds about 25% of the total Ethereum reserves across all exchanges. This significant figure could be a sign of smart accumulation by major market participants. Notably, Binance’s rising share has occurred while overall ETH reserves on exchanges have remained stable. In a situation where Ethereum’s price is still below its all-time highs—even as Bitcoin has set new records—this accumulation on Binance may signal that large investors are entering and expecting future price growth.
On the weekly chart, Ethereum is showing signs of strength and a possible continuation of its upward trend. If buyers maintain their momentum, the first target lies in the 3,900–4,200 zone, with the second target in the 4,850–4,950 range—close to previous all-time highs.
Raising the bar for SpotifySpotify has been my favorite stock so far this year. Primarily because resilience in uncertain economies. Subscription-based services, especially freemium models, are seen as defensive. Spotify is the number one music streaming service in the world and unless that changes people will keep using it every single day in their lives.
They will generate revenues based on advertisements and subscriptions which are in my opinion reasonable and conducive of a strong business model. I am raising my price target to $985. This is not unreasonable considering the intrinsic value of the stock is between $400 and $2900. I am confident Spotify will find ways to stay ahead of its competitors and dominate the music streaming industry. While keeping its customers happy and loyal.
Daily Market Outlook. 16.07.2025, CPI dayGold Short and NQ order flow explained. Along with the Dollar Index
ETHEREUM WILL KEEP GROWING|LONG|
✅ETHEREUM is going up
Now and the coin made a bullish
Breakout of the key horizontal
Level of 3000$ and the breakout
Is confirmed so we are bullish
Biased and we will be expecting
A further bullish move up
LONG🚀
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
YTD Performance: Large NBFIs of CSE vs. ASI & LOFCOverview
All major Non-Bank Financial Institutions (NBFIs) listed on the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) have significantly outperformed the All Share Index (ASI) in Year-to-Date (YTD) terms—with one exception.
YTD Returns (2025)
Institution / Index | YTD Performance
----------------------------------------------
ASI 37%
COCR 127%
CFIN 93%
LFIN 66%
PLC 64%
LOFC -1.47%
Underperformance of LOFC
LOLC Finance (LOFC), the largest NBFI on the CSE, not only underperformed its sector peers but also delivered a negative return of -1.47%, diverging sharply from the broader market trend.
While the divergence was visible since Feb. 2025, underperformance during recent months probably due to share buyback executed at LKR 6.
Sector Tailwinds
The NBFI sector's strong performance is largely attributed to the anticipated revival of the vehicle leasing segment, following the government’s decision to permit vehicle imports. This policy shift has fueled investor optimism across the financial leasing landscape.
Strategic Implication
Given its scale and market position, LOFC should theoretically be the primary beneficiary of this resurgence.
Will there be a catch-up trade?
As buy back is now closed, we should pay close attention for a Catchup trade opportunity together with other shares of the group.
S&P 500 and the Elliott Wave TheoryThis is a continuation of a Weekly chart that I had previously posted. Our Wave 2(Red) was a Zigzag and the expectation is a Flat for Wave 4(Red) which we see occurred. Since Wave 4(Red) completed, a Wave 5(Red) was triggered. We can expect our Wave 5 to express itself in 5 Waves just like any other Wave. We can observe that our Wave 2(Green) was a Flat and we can expect our Wave 4(Green) to be a Zigzag. Wave 3(Green) was a strong upward move and a confirmation at its current price would trigger a Zigzag correction. This would be our Wave 4(Green) and would set the stage for the last wave before a major correction.
GBPNZD and Elliott Wave PrinciplesWave 2(Blue) was a Zigzag and we should expect a Flat for Wave 4(Blue). After Wave 3(Blue) completes, a lunge to the downside occurs and this is our Wave A of the Flat. We are on the Wave B(Black) of a Flat as Wave A(Black) has already completed. Our Wave B(Black) should go beyond the end of Wave 3(Blue) since it is a Flat.
AUDUSD good structure for higher bullish
OANDA:AUDUSD whats next, we are have DESCENDING CHANNEL breaked, its followed by bullish push, but its not make to much in my op, at end price is make revers, its stop at end on strong sup zone (0.64900).
We are have in last day-two RBA and RBNZ today, price is start pushing looks like zone 0.64900 can be taked for valid zone, from which now expecting higher bullish push in next periods.
SUP zone: 0.65100
RES zone: 0.66300, 0.66600
Final BTC target still remain above 130kBTC still has some push to do to reach my final target, 130k - 145k region. If you look at my BTC chart from January, that region has been highlighted. Till then, I'm still bullish. Now DXY is trying to turn bullish too, which will mean bearish BTC but it is that is s lagging indicator. It won't happen immediately, maybe next 2 or 3 months. Be prepared, for now, we still go up. Enjoyyy
Follow me as my trades are market order so you'll see the trades on time anand enter on time
US30 - LONGPrice has retraced and tapped into its 4 hour key level. Looking for buyers to take back control and take liquidity at the previous asian session highs.
A case for a EURUSD ShortPrice got rejected at the U-MLH.
DXY shows some strenght too:
A close below yesterdays low is a short for me.
USDJPYGiven the strong net long positioning on the U.S. Dollar (DXY) and the relatively weaker net positioning on the Japanese Yen (JPY) reflected in the latest COT report, we can anticipate a continued bullish outlook for USD/JPY.
DXY - USD Index: either 86 or 112If the current pullback can break above the Centerline, then massive upside is on the plate.
But if it gets rejected, massiv downside is possible.
We don't know yet.
Just let the market tell you.
NVDA - NVIDIA's 3-Drive Pattern target if it plays outThis is the weekly chart of NVDA.
We can clearly see a 3-Drives pattern forming.
If this pattern plays out, the centerline would be my target. Of course, it's still too early to short.
But I’ve got my hunting hat on and I'm watching for signals on the daily chart.
One would be a break of the slanted trendline—but there are a couple of other conditions that need to align as well.
Always ask yourself: What if?
AUDCAD Trade plan: Waiting for bullish confirmation at RetestPrice broke above resistance with a momentum candle, indicating buyer control. This is our first clue that a structure shift might have occurred.
This retest is essential. Many traders make the mistake of entering too early without confirmation. But it's right here, once price touches the former resistance, that you must observe how price reacts. Look for price exhaustion or reversal candlesticks such as bullish engulfing patterns, or even inside bars.
Once rejection is confirmed, I'm looking to go long to 0.90450.
Just sharing my thoughts for the charts, this isn’t financial advice. Always confirm your setups and manage your risk properly.
NZD/USD "KIWI HEIST" – BEARISH BANK ROBBERY!🦹♂️ NZD/USD "THE KIWI HEIST" – BEARISH BANK ROBBERY PLAN! 🚨💰
(Thief Trading Style – Short Entry Strategy for Maximum Loot!)
🎯 MASTER TRADING HEIST BLUEPRINT
🔥 Thief’s Technical & Fundamental Analysis Confirms:
NZD/USD is OVERBOUGHT + TREND REVERSAL!
Police (Bulls) set a TRAP near the Red Zone (Support) – Time to ESCAPE with profits before they catch us!
✔ Entry Point (Bearish Loot Grab):
*"The vault is UNLOCKED! Swipe SHORT anywhere – but for SAFER HEIST, use Sell Limit orders (15m/30m pullbacks). Pro Thieves use DCA/Layering for max gains!"*
✔ Stop Loss (Escape Route):
"SL at nearest 4H Swing High (0.60400). Adjust based on YOUR risk tolerance & loot size!"
✔ Target 🎯 (Profit Escape):
0.58900 (or exit earlier if cops (bulls) show up!)
⚠️ THIEF’S WARNING – NEWS & RISK MANAGEMENT
📢 High-Impact News = VOLATILITY TRAP!
Avoid new trades during news releases.
Trailing SL = Lock profits & evade market cops!
💥 SCALPERS & SWING THIEVES – QUICK NOTES:
Scalpers: Only quick LONG scalp plays (use Trailing SL!).
Swing Thieves: Hold for the BIG BEARISH LOOT! 🏦
📉 WHY NZD/USD IS BEARISH? (Thief’s Intel Report)
Overbought + Trend Reversal Signals!
Bulls (Police) losing strength at Resistance!
For FULL Intel (Fundamentals, COT Report, Sentiment, etc.) – Klickk 🔗!
🚀 BOOST THIS HEIST! (Like & Share for More Loot Plans!)
💖 "Hit 👍 BOOST to strengthen our THIEF SQUAD! More heists = More profits!"
📌 DISCLAIMER (Stay Safe, Thieves!):
This is NOT financial advice. Trade at your own risk & manage positions wisely!
🤑 NEXT HEIST COMING SOON… STAY TUNED! 🎭
