Dollar Index Macro analysisCurrently the Fed's Dollar is kept at 5.50% which is higher than any other currency except for the Kiwi , As we all know interest have high impact on currency prices. We are currently in a consolidation market profile. Therefore my interest is where the next expansion will be at, Clearly defined on my analysis it should be on the upside.
Beyond Technical Analysis
QQQ : Stay Heavy on Positions1) April Fear & Buy Signals
In early April, the Nasdaq 100 experienced a sharp sell-off, triggering extreme fear sentiment across the market.
At that point, scale-in buy signals appeared—classic "buy the fear" conditions.
2) Current Market State: No More Fear, but Watching
Since then, the market has stabilized.
The fear has disappeared, but we are still in a wait-and-see mode as traders assess the next move.
Momentum is holding, but participation remains cautious.
3) Stay Heavy on Positions
Despite short-term uncertainty, I’m maintaining an overweight position on the Nasdaq 100.
As long as we don’t see a major breakdown, the bias remains bullish.
US 100 (NDQ) : Stay Heavy on Positions1) April Fear & Buy Signals
In early April, the Nasdaq 100 experienced a sharp sell-off, triggering extreme fear sentiment across the market.
At that point, scale-in buy signals appeared—classic "buy the fear" conditions.
2) Current Market State: No More Fear, but Watching
Since then, the market has stabilized.
The fear has disappeared, but we are still in a wait-and-see mode as traders assess the next move.
Momentum is holding, but participation remains cautious.
3) Stay Heavy on Positions
Despite short-term uncertainty, I’m maintaining an overweight position on the Nasdaq 100.
As long as we don’t see a major breakdown, the bias remains bullish.
Bitcoin : Stay heavy on positionsApril was the scale-in zone:
Back in April, the US stock market flashed a split-entry buy signal—a classic zone for gradual accumulation.
That same setup applied to Bitcoin. Buying the fear worked again.
We’ve moved out of the fear zone:
Both Bitcoin and equities have left the extreme fear territory behind. Sentiment has shifted.
Short-term overbought now:
Bitcoin is currently in a short-term overbought phase. Some consolidation or cooling off is natural here, but no major trend reversal signs yet.
Stay heavy on positions:
I’m maintaining an overweight position in Bitcoin as long as the US stock market stays intact. The Nasdaq is holding up, so Bitcoin likely stays in risk-on mode.
Warning:
If US equities take a hit, expect Bitcoin to follow.
Negative moves in the stock market will likely translate directly into crypto weakness.
Gold bullish bias (18th july 2025)Daily is reacting from a bullish BOS. 4H shows strong rejection from a 4H BOS — confirming a bullish bias. Currently expecting a 15M CHOCH in this area. However, if no CHOCH forms here, treat it as a retracement and watch for another 15M CHOCH lower — all the same scenarios and targets will still apply.
For BUYS (Scenario 1 – Impulse + Retest):
1️⃣ 15M makes a clean bullish move to 3345.747.
2️⃣ Price retests the broken level.
3️⃣ Form a 1/3M bullish CHOCH + BOS, then BUY toward 3360.072.
For BUYS (Scenario 2 – Structure Flip Entry):
1️⃣ 15M forms a bullish CHOCH + BOS (expected in the current zone).
2️⃣ Retest the BOS zone.
3️⃣ Enter on a 3/5M bullish engulfing or 1/3M confirmation CHOCH, then BUY toward 3360.072.
For SELLS (Scenario 3 – Bullish Failure & Reversal):
1️⃣ 15M forms a BOS, but is invalidated by a 15M momentum candle close below.
2️⃣ Price retests the broken BOS.
3️⃣ Use 2/3M bearish confirmation (CHOCH or BOS) to SELL toward 3313.808.
🔁 NOTE:
📌 A 15M CHOCH is expected in this zone. If it fails to form, it’s likely a retracement.
🔍 Watch for a new 15M CHOCH to form lower — all same entry principles and targets still apply.
ELV (Elevance Health) – Catching the Knife or Catching Value?Elevance (ELV) just took a 12% hit after Q2 earnings missed estimates and full-year guidance was cut significantly. But here's the thing—the selloff may be overdone. The stock now trades at a forward P/E of ~10, well below industry peers, and is approaching multi-year support levels.
📥 Entry Plan :
✅ Entry 1: $302.45 (market price)
✅ Entry 2: $285 (historical support zone)
✅ Entry 3: $250 (capitulation panic level)
🎯 Target Levels:
TP1: $330 – recent gap zone + psychological resistance
TP2: $360 – key horizontal + potential MLR rebound narrative
TP3: $400 – longer-term recovery level, aligns with prior institutional range
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⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a financial advisor. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. Trading and investing involve risk, including the potential loss of capital
TAP -- Breakout Attempt -- Target LevelsHello Traders!
The chart of TAP (Molson Beer co.) is currently flirting with a major resistance trendline. Now whether or not price can successfully seal the deal and make it too third base remains to be seen.
If price does breakout, watch for a potential retrace to the breakout trendline first, then we could see the larger move to resistance level #1.
If price gets rejected and fails to breakout we could see a move below support before it attempts to breakout again.
Thanks everyone and best of luck with your trading journey!
An arbitrage chance: NZ Dollar goes down & JP Yen goes upDue to economies trends and currency policies, USDJPY is going down in a long term (3 to 5 years) and NZDUSD is also going down in the next 3 years
Except for trend following trade for these 2 pairs, you can also set buy limit at the bottom of a value box for NZDJPY and sell limit at the top boarder of this box. Will take good P/L and good win rate positions for this crosspairs
Good setup to short USDJPYRecently the risk emotions caused by the White House and inflation worries it produced drives long term US Treasury yields rising, with 20-yr yield cross up to 5% once again.
Yet, you can see that the yield difference are still at a dropping trend. Moreover, the Fed is expected to cut 125 bps in the next 15 months according to the swap market.
Combined with the techincal levels, it's a good price to get into a short position of USDJPY. I don't know about you guys. I'm in
ETH vs 200MA: Another TestETH on the daily has been pushed back so many times by the 200MA. Will price conquer it this time? I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
Today is Friday, July 4th, so probably a long weekend for most traders. Somehow, price got pushed back again. Just a hunch, but I believe long traders are touching grass this weekend while sellers are grinding.
Anyway, we now have a support zone under price, made up of the 200MA and the 0.5 Fib — which, in theory, should hold against any attempts to push the price lower this weekend.
Always take profits and manage risk.
Interaction is welcome.
JAPAN as a HERO? UP! GOKU Last Fight! JAPAN is the last one to join the party! The final fight for the #BlowoffTop.
Why is this so important? If you look at correlations with BTC, global liquidity, China, the Fed’s interest rates, and more, Japan plays a key role. After China, Japan is the next to wake up and give the final push to this Bull Market.
The last time the Nikkei dropped more than 25% was during the COVID crash. What happened next? It rallied 26% in the first 52 days and extended its Bull Market to over 88% from the bottom.
With the current Carry Trade crisis (still unresolved), the TVC:NI225 has dropped more than 25% again, and guess what? It’s up 26% in the first 52 days... History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes.
It’s feeling like 2017 all over again... What do you think? 🚀📈
Nasdaq100 Bulls ready to drive the price to 23,300 handle With the choch on the market structure and with Key data released on Thursday, reflected strength in the U.S. economy. Stocks rose this Thursday, buoyed by fresh economic data reports and a slew of corporate earnings releases. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has advanced 0.4%, and quarterly earnings reports released this week have exceeded Wall Street’s expectations, fueling investor confidence. I am expecting that by the end of this week or the beginning of next week will see the bulls drive the market to our 23,300 handle. I am with the bulls on this one
Tp1.23,300.
MicroCap Rare Earth Play in CanadaToo much to say about this other than more cash than market cap, Offtake Agreements and Collaboration with Teck Resources and Tanco Mine with Rising Metal Prices including huge reserves of Cesium, Lithium, PGM, Nickel, Copper... everything needed for electrification and AI transition in North America. Will be acquired in the next 12 Months IMO.
Yen Futures Options: What the "Put Condor" Tells Us About FutureA quick look at the options sentiment on Japanese Yen futures (not spot) — and there’s something interesting on the flow radar.
On July 10 , a "Put Condor" was placed — boundaries marked by the yellow rectangle on the chart (№1).
The goal of this setup? Price should expire within these boundaries — meaning the seller expects limited downside , but still allows for some controlled movement.
What’s notable?
This position was placed before the yen started to weaken — so someone was clearly preparing for this scenario in advance .
Also worth watching:
Further down (№2 on the chart), there’s another cluster of put options at 0.0067 — suggesting this level could act as a support zone if the futures contract drops that low.
📊 Bottom Line:
There are clear signs pointing to continued downside pressure in Yen futures.
The 0.006685 level is key — potential support for a bounce back into the 0.00675–0.00685 range .
LONG for EURUSD?LONG EURUSD
What is going on with EURUSD
We see how beautiful the market went up from the beginning of the trend line constatly with pullbacks that means a steady uptrend not really the urge that the market want to go back.
We used the fib as always to indicate 61.8% perfect pullback on that and as we see on the resistance that has to be tested.
There will be a fake break out of 100-150 pips.
If we go back on the RSI we see divergence momentum is back to average.
We call this hidden divergence price goes up and indicator goes down.
What indicates us that we also have new space for a higher high.
Targets we have in mind 1.19035 with high momentum what I expect it will hit the 1.20274 , important to have in mind 1.20000 is a key level price wants to go there as a magnet.
Reverse of the analyses:
If it breaks the 61.8% it will retest the market structure and goes to the 1.13544 with high momentum just to test price and set us offside because that is what the market want hit as many stop losses because that’s where the liquidity is build up, takes out and will continue the uptrend.
Follow my journey I try to post daily.
Markets I analyse XAUUSD, EURUSD, USDMXN, XTIUSD, XRPUSD, BTCUSD.
Will start more forex and Crypto soon.