Biofuels — Trading Ideas on TradingView

Why the Sudden Surge in Soybean Oil Prices?Recent sharp increases in Chicago soybean oil prices reflect a confluence of dynamic global and domestic factors. Geopolitical tensions, particularly those impacting crude oil markets, have played a significant role, as evidenced by the recent surge in Brent crude futures following events in the Middle East. This volatility in the broader energy complex directly influences the cost and strategic value of alternative fuels, positioning soybean oil at the forefront of this market shift. A primary driver of this ascent is the transformative policy initiatives from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The EPA's proposed Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volume requirements for 2026 and 2027 represent an aggressive push towards increased domestic biofuel production. These mandates, significantly exceeding previous targets, aim to bolster U.S. energy security and provide substantial support for American agriculture by boosting demand for soybeans and their derivatives. Key changes, such as the transition to RIN equivalents and reduced RIN costs for imports, are designed to further incentivize domestic consumption and reshape market dynamics. This policy-driven demand fundamentally reorients the U.S. soybean oil market, causing Chicago Board of Trade futures to increasingly reflect internal American forces rather than global trends. This necessitates a shift in focus for traders towards physical market prices in other regions for international insights. The market has reacted swiftly, with notable increases in futures prices, a surge in open interest, and record trading volumes, indicating strong investor confidence in soybean oil's role within this evolving landscape. Concurrently, the new mandates exert pressure on imported biofuel feedstocks, further solidifying the emphasis on domestic supply. Ultimately, the rise of soybean oil prices signifies more than just market speculation; it marks a pivotal transformation. It positions soybean oil as an essential commodity within the U.S.'s energy independence strategy, where robust domestic demand, shaped by forward-looking policy, becomes the prevailing force. This transition underscores how intertwined agricultural markets now are with national energy objectives and global geopolitical stability.

Could AI Unlock the Secrets of Life's Building Blocks?In a remarkable leap forward for biotechnology, scientists have unveiled MassiveFold, a revolutionary adaptation of Google DeepMind's AlphaFold that transforms our ability to understand protein structures. This groundbreaking system achieves what was once thought impossible: reducing protein structure prediction time from months to mere hours. By combining parallel processing with sophisticated optimization techniques, Université de Lille and Linköping University researchers have created a tool that democratizes access to one of science's most powerful capabilities. The implications of this advancement ripple across multiple industries, from pharmaceutical development to sustainable agriculture. MassiveFold's ability to rapidly decode protein structures – the fundamental building blocks of life – accelerates our potential to develop new medicines, enhance crop yields, and create more efficient biofuels. What makes this development particularly significant is its accessibility; the system operates efficiently on both modest computing setups and advanced GPU infrastructures, making it available to research teams worldwide. Perhaps most intriguing is MassiveFold's performance in real-world applications. During the prestigious CASP15-CAPRI blind structure prediction trials, the system demonstrated remarkable accuracy, sometimes surpassing the capabilities of its predecessor, AlphaFold3. This success, combined with its open-source availability, suggests we're entering a new era of biological understanding where the mysteries of protein structures – and thus the fundamental mechanics of life – become increasingly accessible to scientific exploration. As this technology continues to evolve, it promises to unlock new possibilities in everything from disease treatment to environmental conservation, potentially revolutionizing our approach to humanity's most pressing challenges.

75: Key Levels Amidst Biofuel Plant Construction Halt Shell (SHEL) is navigating significant financial and operational challenges. The company recently announced a delay in the construction of its biofuel plant in Rotterdam, which was initially expected to be operational this year but has now been postponed to 2030. This delay has resulted in a financial setback of at least €554 million, potentially escalating to nearly €1 billion, due to technical challenges and unfavorable market conditions. Given this backdrop, Shell's stock is currently rejecting the key level at 34.315. Here’s what traders should watch: Bearish Scenario: If Shell loses the current low, we could see a trend change. The new area of interest will be around 32.65, where we anticipate potential support. This level becomes crucial as the market absorbs the financial impact of the delayed biofuel plant and Shell’s strategic adjustments. Bullish Scenario: If Shell regains the high at 34.315, we should monitor for new highs above 34.745. In this case, we are targeting a high around 36.75, which could sweep liquidity from a monthly high. This bullish momentum could be driven by positive market reactions to any new strategic initiatives Shell undertakes to mitigate the impact of the delay and to capitalize on future regulatory changes in the aviation fuel sector. The recent halt in the biofuel plant construction adds a layer of complexity to Shell's stock movement. Investors should closely watch these critical levels for potential trading opportunities, considering the broader implications of Shell's operational challenges and market dynamics.

GEVO - The Sleeping Nephilim Giant Alarm Triggered (BIOFUELS)GEVO is priming for a big comeback. It's a sleeping giant. Has been on a down trend close to 2 decades. For pennies on the dollar, this is an opportunity equivalent to mining bitcoin in 2009 and holding your bag for a very long time. This is a long-term hold. 5+ years. Someone believed in the Biofuels technology at one point where a share was traded over $200k. Now it is the time, with government support and incentives... meaning us the people will basically fund this. It's pretty evident that everything is pointing to 'Going Green' with the global warming agenda. The way I see it, is if a carbon tax is implemented, and SAF Net Zero fuels comply with the fuel regulations on the 'carbon footprint' and it is exempt from taxation... well wouldn't all airlines look to supply their airplanes with SAF net zero fuel? As well as GEVO getting government incentives for clean biofuels? Any whom the main agenda is to have everything operating with SAF by 2050. On the Technical side... Basic indicators like MacD and RSI are the most bullish I have ever seen in any chart in any time frame. The picture is clear, the white forecast candles are for goofin' only. Although it relies on the summit carbon solutions pipeline project, if all goes as planned it should start by 2025, where I am confident GEVO will also break ground shortly after EOY 2026. This is where it should be trading at a key point to what the chart is printing. Production of SAF sometime in 2028 and more funding for a larger expansion to just take this back to it's previous years.

Are Wheat & Biofuels Supply Plays?Took positions in BG last year, & ended up trading out too soon. Here is a good dip & options are cheap, not trading advice just a MACRO play. As long as food prices are going up & Russian Export Taxes are increasing then Wheat Grain & Biofuels might still be valid fundamentally. Bunge is a global player so please check out their Fundamentals, SEC Filings & Prospectus before investing real money, also it costs nothing to check price action for a few weeks or months before making a decision. That's how lots of analysts make their very best decisions. In fact the way I came across BG was from bad information about an alleged Silver Squeeze. Don't follow hype, do your own research & make the best decisions for you & your investment goals.

REGI Neutral Possible Entry at 73.40$REGI has had a fantastic run since August of last year, running up almost 400%. REGI however has broken the 50 day SMA line which leads me to see it having more downside in the short term, going down to my price target of 73.40$. From there, REGI has the possibility of either breaking trend and continue down towards the low 50s where there is a lot of support for it or it can continue to maintain its trend and rise up to 120$. I see there to be many bullish catalysts for the stock including a Biden presidency, rising energy prices, and being undervalued compared to other companies in its industry. There are bearish warning signs which must be taken into consideration, a volatile stock/bond market, and REGI breaking the 20 day and 50 day SMA line. This is not financial advice, I am not advocating the buying or selling of REGI stock.

200$ is incredibly cheap for this stock A gigantic transfer of wealth is about to occur from big Oil to the wise investors that were able to get into the next source of energy early enough. Let me remind you the Oil market makes TRILLIONS of revenue a year, and the market cap of Oil is too big to fathom. Evil misguided greedy Wall Street cannot stop this train. We are powerful, we are standing storng together, and they know it. This is why they are so scared of us. But even worse, big Oil is shaking! This is a massive revolution, there is no stopping progress, and soon dirty energies will disappear and clean biofuel will replace. Big Oil is shaking, they are doing anything they can to stop this. They have repeatedly manipulated the price, but we have held, and we will keep holding. The lower they push the price, the more cheap shares we can accumulate. YOU CANNOT STOP BIOFUELS. YOU CANNOT STOP US. WE ARE LEGION. WE ARE THE SMART ONES THAT KNOW THERE IS NO STOPPING THIS. FOSSILE FUELS ARE NOT INFINITE. THEY WILL RUN OUT. AND ALL THAT WILL BE LEFT WILL BE BIOFUEL. THIS IS VERY VERY VERY FAR FROM REACHING MASS ADOPTION. REMEMBER TECH ADOPTION CHARTS. WE ARE HERE: It is now clear Big Oil are doing all they can to stop this even if it costs them everything. So I will not change my mind. Noise does not scare me, I just smile at the ability to buy more cheap. I am in this for the long run.