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Bitcoinbearmarket

Bitcoin: Is $17.6k the next stop?$BTC remains firmly in a bearish descending parallel channel. In spite of negligible volume and price action, risk-off market behavior remains. Bitcoin has never been below the 300 week moving average, until recently that is. Atlanta Fed's Q2 GDPNow posted -2.1% on July 1st, reflecting 2 consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Multiple "well-regarded" hedge funds and crypto exchanges have faced liquidation and margin calls due to significant overleveraging, the broader markets posted the worst 1st half performance in well over 50 years, and BTC's Q2 was the second worst performance in its short history (late 2011 being the worst). Before thinking the bottom is in and there's sufficient blood in the streets, consider there's still significant downside risk. The Federal Reserve FOMC continues to higher rates and inflation is not under control. In fact, if the Fed reverses course too soon, the economy will likely realize increasingly higher inflation peaks similar to the 1970's. Meanwhile, Wall St analysts have not adjusted earnings estimates significantly and markets have yet to price in a global recession in spite of significant financial turmoil across the globe. Reality: - Past 5 years, EPS -2.4% compared to estimates during a quarter - Past 10 yrs, -3.3% - Past 15 years -4.7% The US labor shortage is like nothing we've experienced since WW2, worse, it's in a decades long decline with declining birth rates and an aging population. It's far beyond "persistent." The US simply does not have sufficient labor resource. There will be bad market rallies with plenty of volatility for short-term traders, but the bottom is not in... there's far more downside risk to navigate. Keep an eye on higher timeframe volumes and look for EMA's to begin reversing on at least a 3-Day chart before thinking the best market is over.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by UnknownUnicorn20630062
BITCOIN HTF OUTLOOK (BEARMARKET)Here come my thoughts on the Bitcoin situation at a macro scale. 3 deviations (65k, 67k, 69k) to bait longs and tap liquidity in the market. We are clearly in a bear market on the HTF and I don't expect it to be over any time soon. Many sucker rallies happening but don't forget that these easily fade quickly in a bear market. Since the beginning of 2022 Bitcoin has been trading in a range that looks like a redistribution range, again 2 deviations might be going for a third and final deviation in this range before finally seeing 30k's. Obviously order book showing lots of buy orders resting at 30k, there is no doubt we go below here to get everyone to exit their positions. This is where you will see the "bear market has started" news which was happening already before their eyes. Now reasons as to why I'm calling 24-20k bottom: CME Gap on Bitcoin futures Daily and weekly demand zones 20k would be a retest of the old ATH from late 2017 that never got backtested I want to entertain the idea that 2021 was the beginning of a big accumulation range/structure as we have been trading in a range on the HTF. If that is truly the case we have yet to see the "super cycle" everyone is talking about which will be something we truly have not seen before. Do with this information as you will! NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE [
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by SpaceBlobb
4
bitcoin bear run This analysis is based on elliot waves, chart pattern and moving averages. We can clearly see bitcoin forming a rising wedge and a head and shoulder pattern on 1 d chart of bitcoin. The targets for same are head and shoulder - 9970 and rising wedge - 7710. The Moving averages in daily TF and weekly TF points in bearish trend also with test of support and resistance. I believe we will break head and shoulder by the month end and test 30 k level first and then test head and shoulder for confirmation upon which the major wave 3 of wave C will complete with H&S target where will will bounce to test 16.5 k major resistance and then drop to complete the target of rising wedge. the complete TF for same can be measured around December of 2022 and for a falling broadening wedge which will upon break will start the next leg of bull run which will be wave 5 of deca-wave structure. which shall complete by 2027 according to calculations of fib levels and halving theory. The correction till 7110 will also fill all the gaps in CME chart and also complete the wave 4 of deca-wave structure. This is my personal analysis and not a financial advice all my trades will be my responsibility of profit and loss please do your own research before taking this as example. I have started a new account of trade with 0.025 btc to trade which tend to use for complete bear run to make maximum
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PLong
by Wolf_of_charts
2
What Goes Down Must Come Up - Navigating Bitcoin's CorrectionDuring an uptrend, we have this saying - what comes up, must come down. The similar notion can be said during a downtrend, but in an opposite direction - what comes down, must come up. Following this series of downtrend within the Cryptomarket, we can actually maximize the intra-cycle volatility which we see within the smaller timeframes. In this chart, we used a common indicator and strategy which everyone uses and applies with their own trading strategy. But in this chart, we combined the following strategies to come up with a way of navigating the downtrend: Relative Strength Index (RSI) Bullish Divergences Support and Resistances - During a downtrend, there will be a point in time wherein the price gets oversold in the RSI. - The moment wherein the price starts declining but the RSI has started increasing, that poses a signal wherein a bullish retracement is bound to happen. - Entry points will vary depending on different support levels, as much as possible, set a stop loss for 5-10% in order to secure your capital. - As for Exit strategy, the suggested take profit areas are determined by the resistance areas forming. - Previous support will now act as a resistance, hence the resistance areas are a good levels for exiting a trade (either fully or partially). - Once you've exited a trade, you now wait for the next indicators to form, especially if you see a downtrend continuation. In that case, you now wait for the next bullish indicators to form. In this example, the Bitcoin downtrend which started late November 2021 has been forming multiple instances of a bullish retracements using bullish divergences and resistance areas. While you are shorting within the bigger timeframe, it is still possible to long every bullish retracement opportunities that you can find in the smaller timeframes. To summarize: - During a downtrend: being bearish in the bigger timeframe doesn't mean you have to be always bearish in the smaller timeframe; - And during an uptrend: being bullish in the bigger timeframe doesn't mean you have be always bullish in the smaller timeframe.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by baltristangabriel
1
BTCUSD: Aiming in by using Data On Previous EngagementsIntroduction Bitcoin continues to take a beating and I am producing different styles of charts to reach different styles of investors and traders, hoping to show them something in a system they recognize. I have done divergence on indicators, I have use bollinger bands, I have done volume analysis, everything I can to help. This is to help out the moving averages traders. See my linked ideas if you want some more confirmation. This takes a wide shot of the 100, 200, and 400 daily EMAS because they have historically been shown to be very useful in these situations. And because I never like to pull a trigger on patterns or Moving averages alone (I usually like divergences to back up my charting) I have an indicator that has proved useful to show where BTC is a value buy. The NVT is network value divided by transactions and due to the color bands provided by aamonkey we can see generally where NTV is expensive and where it is cheap. Current Scenario As it stands price action is in a triangle and hanging onto the 100 EMA and very well maybe consolidating for its next leg down. The charting does permit some more sideways action but with the totality of the macro environment and the negativity in the news I think sentiment is going to be enough that hands get weak and look to buy a dip. We have a lot of chances to swing trade BTC over the next couple of months, and that means a lot of chances to get reck'd if you forget the bigger picture. And part of that bigger picture is to not forget the orange and purple trendlines. In 2018 the purple trendline acted as a slide while price action took months to form a falling wedge and if you thought early on that previous resistance was now support your gains would have slid down along with price for months until you saw the wedge form.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
2
🚀One Step Ahead - The bottom of the next Bear Market may be inEveryone is trying to figure out what will be the peak of the current Bull Market. However, when investing, you need to be forward-looking and think ahead. While the price target for the current market cycle is still very uncertain, it may be easier to foresee what will be the price floor of the next bear market. Looking at the previous cycles, in both cases, the parabolic uptrend had a brief re-accumulation phase at around half of the way. The price level at which that consolidation happens market years after the same level at which the Bear market followed found its final support. What if the current sideways price action on Bitcoin anticipates a more significant price drop instead of a new leg up? That is possible, yet unlikely. Usually, parabolic uptrends end up in a much sharper way. On-chain data and the macro environment are still positive, and that could offer a supportive tailwind for months. Why predicting the bottom of the next Bear market is important? Because knowing that you have the chance to buy below such levels adds significant upside to your investment and will protect your allocation in future drawdowns. Short-term volatility may push prices slightly lower, but dollar-cost averaging Bitcoin may be a very interesting long-term strategy. The best time to accumulate Bitcoin was years ago. The second-best time may be now.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Coinrule
2
BITCOIN Breaking point for a bull runSince the chart above mentioned the RSI 14 weekly showing signs of btc on a bull run or not..in a candle stick perspective we're already right exact at the resistance area of BTC and it will show either we have a retracement-pullback then go back up to a bull run. Or...this is alraedy the top and another correction dowanrds to $5,500ish. Call me repetitive but I have been saying since Novemeber BTC bottoming is possible already. Inline with January effect, halving and technical indicators showing up. BTC coming to a bull run this January is possible. Notice on the same China pump before there is a bearish divergence HTC present at MACD, RSI CCI. Now there's no bearish divergence at MACD only at RSI, CCI. It's possible this is just a retracement-pullback only.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Limitless-Investor
Bitcoin's journey to the new peak will be longer this timeThis chart incorporates the Bitcoin's market cycles inside the parabolic shape factoring in the halving effect. The halving has so far occurred after the bottom of each market cycle was made so based on that (next halving May 2020) the new bottom should take place inside this February - April. What is even more important than that is the lengthening of each cycle, which seems to trade on an arithmetic progression. Approximately 583 days are added to the length of each subsequent cycle. Needless to say this affect the duration of the bear cycles as well, which also progress on an arithmetic mean (252 days). This shows that this time the market cycle will take long to reach a peak that should be in by August 2023.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
20
Can Bitcoin make a 1600 Bottom?The chart is self explanatory, in a few words a comparison between how the 2014 - 2015 bear market reached its bottom and the similarity with the price action at hand. Based on that comparison, December's 3150 bottom was a temporary one much like the 278 during 2014 - 2015. A maximum peak at 4600 is to be expected followed by the final blow of -65% for a 1600 low. This must be the permanent bottom for the 2018 - 2019 bear market. What follows after is a lengthy accumulation and recovery period.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by TradingShot
14
Bitcoin: Bottom in/close? What do the Death/Golden Cross tell usThis is a basic but informative illustration of the Death/ Golden Cross occurrence on BTCUSD. During the last bear cycle (2014/ 2015) the Death Cross occurred just before the cycle'c bottom was made in January 2015. The bottom was made 3 weeks after the Death Cross took place. What followed in the coming months was a year long consolidation period that stopped with the emergence of the Golden Cross, which basically signaled the start of the 2 year hyperbolic bull market on Bitcoin. Focusing on the current chart we see that the same MA 200/50 pattern is followed with the appearance of the Death Cross in early November, just before the latest bearish leg that took BTC close to 3,100. Although 3 weeks have passed since the Death Cross, we didn't get the full -63.67% decline of the previous 2014/ 2015 cycle, so the bottom has high probabilities of being already priced in. This shouldn't matter to long term investors as the pattern that follows is fairly clear: 1 year consolidation until the next Golden Cross occurrence that will signal the next bull market. See our previous studies on the probability of this consolidation period that lies ahead: ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by InvestingScope
21
Bitcoin prints 5 consecutive red months. Where do we stand?Bitcoin has closed 5 bearish monthly candles in a row for the first time (and historically second) since November 2011. That streak was the end of Bitcoin's first bear cycle and signaled the parabolic rise to the April 2013 Highs of 266. So where do we stand on the parabolic curve at the moment? We have done numerous studies on that matter but there is no better time to look at it again as based on the comparisons with the 2011 bear market, the completion of the 5 red month streak indicates that BTC has reached a bottom. The extension of the parabolic curve and a comparison with the previous bear cycle in 2014 shows that the price has one last drop to give before the new bull market starts (orange parabolic curves). For long term traders this is insignificant and will look to start building up long positions now. Moreover, since it is historically unlikely to see a 6 monthly candle bearish streak, it is reasonable to say that Bitcoin will start seeing Higher Highs on the 1D chart soon and is slowly entering into bullish territory (although the consolidation period can last up to 6 months). ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by InvestingScope
38
Bitcoin: Is this the cycle we should be looking at?The crypto world has been so focused at comparing the current bear market to the 2014/2015 cycle, that has neglected to look into another bearish cycle. Bitcoin's very first one from June to November 2011. Of course the duration then was much quicker as Bitcoin was in its first steps towards becoming what it is today, and due to the short horizon can be considered a flash crash. But relative to Bitcoin's life span we have categorized it as a cycle. We see astonishing similarities: 1. The logarithmic rise that led to both Highs was performed on three stages, each involving a pull back of similar % rise to the top. See the resemblance 2011/2012 pull back sequence: A. +2000%, B. +950% C. +467% 2018/2019 pull back sequence: A. +2128%, B. +957% C. +549% 2. Following the Highs each cycle formed a Triangle pattern that eventually collapsed upon its completion (we are currently on this phase for the 2018/2019 cycle). In 2011 that declined -55.70% before rising again and follow a long candle sequence towards the cycle's bottom. So far on the 2018/2019 cycle, the price has declined -50%, so we assume there is room for a little more. According to the above parameters, this study assumes that BTCUSD will currently extend the decline around -93.60% to reach the cycle's bottom near 1,250. The above is of course based on the extreme speculation that the 2011/2012 cycle is a small image of the current situation. As already mentioned, the current (2018/2019) time frame is much longer/ wider than Bitcoin's first (flash) crash. If you want a framework for comparison, see our study on the 2014/2015 bear cycle comparison: ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by InvestingScope
84
BTCUSD: Sell channel towards 3645 at least.The price is currently trading within a 4H Channel Down (RSI = 43.283, MACD = -41.400, Highs/Lows = -28.0287). Yesterday's inability however to make a full Lower High near 4,100 has created a Falling Wedge within the Channel Down that is narrowing down towards a 3,645.00 target. If we do however consider 4,034 as the Lower High, then it may follow the pattern's candle sequence that indicates a Lower Low around -12.50% from the High. This suggests a full distance sell TP = 3,530. Always keep in mind that we are approaching the long term bottom . ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by InvestingScope
13
Is Bitcoin's correction all that uncommon?On this study we quickly examine if Bitcoin's 2018 correction is an unusual phenomenon in financial markets and how it is compared to other industry leaders. For our example we use Alibaba a reformer in the Retail Industry and Netflix a reformer in Entertainment. We consider Bitcoin to be the reformer in the Financial sector. All assets have fairly recently joined the market scene but revolutionized it, as opposed to similar cases that weren't used like Amazon, Apple or Google that have been around and well established for far longer. Facebook (reformer in Interactive Media & Service) could be used also but its growth was less parabolic. At a glance we see that all 3 assets enjoyed a parabolic growth since 2015: - Bitcoin > 10000%, Alibaba > 260% and Neflix > 800%. After their all time highs, a significant correction followed: - Bitcoin > 70%, Alibaba > 380% and Neflix > 37%. It is obvious that such corrections are not uncommon for market leaders/ reformers and on the contrary quite common to industry reformers that have enjoyed a sharp period of extreme growth. Such corrections are typically healthy for the asset's progression. Although of course Bitcoin's correction is almost twice as much and twice as long, we need to consider two facts: It grew prior to this equally disproportionately and also the Financial Sector's market capitalization is twice as big (>$7 trillion) than Amazon's Consumer Sector or even more so Netflix's Entertainment Sector. So during a common market correction investors as usual need to identify the right time to position themselves for the next growth period. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by InvestingScope
41
Bitcoin: Comparing bear markets. Similarities and projection.This chart illustrates how the previous bear market (2014/ 2015) on Bitcoin evolved. The event horizon between the 1166.89 Top and the 155.69 Bottom was 59 bars (413 days) during which BTC lost 86.35% of its value. If we apply the same parameters on the current bear market, we get a projected bottom on a 1W candle around 28 January 2019 at 2,686 and an upside break out from the consolidation range on 18 November 2019. This is of course highly speculative but sensible trading would suggest that long term investors should wait for a clear bottom to be made before the buy again for the next bull market. Please follow our Profile to get more daily ideas (www.tradingview.com). Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by InvestingScope
84
Bitcoin Bulls might be done until 2019The Bulls of Bitcoin have continued to stall out with small deadcat bounces from my last Published Idea in May. I anticipate more lower highs and lower lows that have squeezed us down into this 7 month decline from the ATH. Expect to see the price to ride the ATH down trend resistance/support lines into a very large symmetrical triangle that started at the top of the Feb-March recovery to $11.8k. If the market volume continues to dry up because of bitcoin, we could see prices back under $4000 after Christmas. Will this be when Ethereum takes its turn at the top of the marketcap? It will be an interesting scenario to follow through the end of 2018 and into 2019, for sure.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheRealVSky
3
The merciless Bears in BitcoinBITFINEX:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BITSTAMP:BTCUSD A simple Andrew pitchfork idea 1.Last time we broke out of the Downward pennant with bullish reverse divergence and price magnet theory of the pitchforks 2.This time there is no divergence and the price magnet theory is also expected to play out, to reach the median line of the pitchfork which is alsoi the monthly and weekly support.. 3.The critical S2 weekly support is unstable also In premonition, if there is going to be a break of the current downward pennant, there must be price failure and we need to watch for divergence , which is texted to be the primary trigger for a price failure theory away from the median line .. Also if there is any reversal from my present target level , it would form a possibility of a nice double bottom, the volumes are lower in the current bottom formation... The current pitchfork is drawn from the recent double top formation and there is presently no sign of reversal and price magnet theory is completely in play.. Disclaimer... No active trades.. No cryptocurrency in possession at this time.... This is not an investing/trading recommendation..
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by capsule91