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Bitcoinhalving2020

Bitcoin Halving: Meaning and Implications for TradersBitcoin Halving: Meaning and Implications for Traders Bitcoin halving is one of the most anticipated events in the crypto world, dramatically altering the supply dynamics of the leading digital asset. By reducing the rate at which new Bitcoin is created, halvings play a key role in its scarcity and long-term value. This article explores what Bitcoin halving means, how it works, and its potential implications for BTC and the broader financial market. What Is Bitcoin Halving? In crypto, a halving refers to an event that slashes rewards transaction validators receive for their efforts. Most well-known is the Bitcoin halving, a built-in mechanism in Bitcoin’s code that cuts the reward miners receive for validating transactions and securing the network by half. Bitcoin's halving is closely tied to the structure of its blockchain. Miners earn rewards by solving complex cryptographic puzzles, which allows them to add a new block to the blockchain. Each block acts as a container for transaction data and serves as a building block in the blockchain, forming a secure, chronological chain of records. However, the reward miners receive for adding a block is not fixed—it is reduced by half every 210,000 blocks. This mechanism ensures Bitcoin's supply remains limited to a maximum of 21 million coins. Bitcoin’s software has a built-in mechanism for halving, meaning it operates without external control. This decentralised approach means no individual or organisation can alter the next BTC halving date. Each block takes about 10 minutes to mine, meaning a Bitcoin halving event occurs roughly every four years. After Bitcoin launched in 2009, miners received 50 BTC for each block. Since then, there have been four halvings: in 2012, the reward dropped to 25 BTC, in 2016 to 12.5 BTC, and in 2020 to 6.25 BTC. By the Bitcoin split in 2024, the reward for validating transactions had dropped to just 3.125 BTC. When the reward is halved, miners face a significant shift in their revenue model. Their costs for electricity, hardware, and maintenance remain the same, but the number of Bitcoins they earn per block drops. This can force miners to rely more on transaction fees—paid by users who want their transactions processed quickly—or to scale operations with more efficient equipment to stay competitive. This reduction affects more than just miners. As seen in the Bitcoin halving chart above, it tightens incoming supply. Simultaneously, demand often remains steady or grows, creating conditions that have historically preceded significant price movements. However, halving doesn’t directly alter the network’s functionality—transactions continue as usual. When is the next Bitcoin halving? The upcoming Bitcoin halving cycle is forecasted in 2028, reducing the reward for transaction validation to 1.5625 BTC. What Happens After Bitcoin Halving? Bitcoin halving events often create ripple effects across the entire ecosystem, and historical trends provide valuable insights into what typically follows. One of the most notable outcomes has been significant price volatility. After previous halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin experienced substantial price increases within the following 12-18 months. For instance: - Bitcoin Halving 2012: BTC rose from about $12 to over $1,000 within a year. - Bitcoin Halving 2016: It increased from $650 to roughly $20,000 by late 2017. - Bitcoin Halving 2020: BTC surged from $8,000 to an all-time high of over $60,000 in 2021. That stands true for the Bitcoin halving in 2024. Bitcoin price after halving in 2024 rose from around $64,000 in April to almost $100,000 in November. Explore BTC’s movements post-halving with live Bitcoin CFD charts in FXOpen and TradingView. Market sentiment tends to shift sharply around halving events. Increased media coverage highlights the reduced supply rate, often drawing retail traders and new participants into the market. This heightened attention can lead to speculative trading, with traders positioning themselves in anticipation of price changes. However, this speculation also increases short-term volatility, as not all price movements reflect genuine demand. In the long run, halving events have reinforced Bitcoin’s standing as a deflationary asset. Reduced supply growth can contribute to higher valuations, provided demand remains consistent or increases. Institutional participants, including investment funds and corporate treasuries, often use halving as a rationale for deepening their Bitcoin holdings. These organisations view Bitcoin’s scarcity model as a hedge against inflation or a unique store of value, further boosting demand after halvings. That said, some analysts argue that the halving effect is less pronounced over time. Since halvings are widely known, they claim the event is "priced in" as traders factor it into their strategies well in advance. Rather than an immediate spike, it can take several months or longer for the historical pattern of price increases to materialise. Broader Implications for the Crypto Market BTC halving events don’t just impact Bitcoin, they often send ripples throughout the entire cryptocurrency market. As Bitcoin dominates the market in terms of value and influence, its performance post-halving can set the tone for other digital assets. Historically, when Bitcoin experiences a price surge after a halving, altcoins tend to follow suit as investor confidence and liquidity increase across the sector. This isn’t purely speculative. Increased attention to Bitcoin during halving events often draws new participants into the market. Some, intrigued by Bitcoin’s supply narrative, also explore alternatives like Ethereum or other blockchain projects. This heightened activity can lead to innovation within the space, as projects aim to capitalise on the influx of interest. Halving events also tend to highlight the decentralised nature of blockchain systems, reinforcing the economic models behind many cryptocurrencies. Investors and developers often revisit the mechanics of other coins, such as those with their own deflationary models or differing consensus mechanisms, sparking new discussions about long-term value. Additionally, Bitcoin halvings often coincide with periods of increased media coverage and regulatory scrutiny. Governments and institutions are likely to evaluate their stance on cryptocurrencies during these high-visibility events, potentially influencing adoption rates and legislative developments across the industry. Risks and Challenges Surrounding Bitcoin Halvings While Bitcoin halvings are often associated with excitement and long-term potential, they also come with their share of risks and challenges. These events can create significant uncertainties, not just for Bitcoin but for the broader market. Increased Volatility Halvings frequently spark increased speculation, resulting in significant price fluctuations. Traders positioning themselves ahead of a halving can cause sudden surges, but profit-taking afterwards might lead to equally rapid declines. This volatility can make short-term market conditions challenging to navigate. Speculative Bubbles The media hype around halvings often attracts inexperienced traders chasing quick returns. This influx of speculation can inflate prices beyond sustainable levels, increasing the risk of market corrections once the excitement fades. Potential Market Saturation Critics argue that the halving narrative may lose impact over time as the market matures. With halvings widely anticipated, their effects might be increasingly priced in, reducing their influence on Bitcoin’s value. Regulatory Attention Halvings tend to amplify Bitcoin’s visibility, which can invite heightened scrutiny from regulators. Unclear or restrictive regulatory developments during or after a halving could dampen market sentiment. The Bottom Line Bitcoin halving is a key event that influences the supply, demand, and pricing trends within the cryptocurrency market. Its implications reach beyond Bitcoin, influencing the broader ecosystem and potential trading opportunities. Whether you're analysing historical trends or exploring market sentiment, halvings remain essential to understanding Bitcoin's unique economic model. To trade Bitcoin CFDs and take advantage of potential market opportunities in other cryptocurrencies, consider opening an FXOpen account today and trade with tight spreads, low commissions, and a wide range of technical analysis tools. FAQ What Does Bitcoin Halving Mean? Bitcoin halving is an occurrence where the payout miners earn for validating transactions on the network is slashed in half. There’s a Bitcoin halving every 4 years, or after 210,000 blocks are mined, designed to control Bitcoin’s supply. By reducing the issuance of new coins, halving ensures BTC remains scarce, with a maximum supply capped at 21 million. When Was the Last Bitcoin Halving? The last Bitcoin halving was in April 2024. After the halving, payouts decreased from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per successful block validation. What Happens When Bitcoin Halves? When Bitcoin halves, the rate at which new coins enter circulation decreases. This often impacts supply dynamics, miner revenues, and market sentiment. Historically, these milestones have been followed by increased price activity, heightened volatility, and greater media attention. Will BTC Go Up After Halving? Historically, Bitcoin’s price has risen in the months and years following a halving. However, while past performance shows this trend, the market’s future behaviour depends on factors such as demand, adoption, and broader economic conditions. When Is the Next Halving of Bitcoin? So when will Bitcoin halve again? The upcoming BTC halving is anticipated around April 2028. At that point, the payout for validating transactions will fall from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by FXOpen
1
2022 Bitcoin Halving Post AnalysisHistory Never Repeats, But it Often Rhymes When analyzing the potential impact of the 2024 Bitcoin halving, it is wise to have an in-depth understanding of the price action of previous halving in 2020. This can help us to identify potential patterns and similarities that could play out in the current cycle. Pre-Halving Price Action In the lead-up to the 2022 halving, we saw a clear resistance/supply zone build up in the $12,000 range. This zone was tested multiple times, but price was unable to break through on a sustained basis. (Red Color Supply Zone) Several months prior to the halving, price action visited the 200 EMA/SMA range. This was the same as the strong accumulation zone of the bear market in 2018/2019. Key reason for this dump was COVID-19 pandemic. This drop provided the best pre-halving buying opportunity. (Purple Zone) Price Recovery Price recovered within weeks leading up to the halving on May 11, 2020. This recovery was fueled by a combination of factors, such as uncertain economic environment and halving anticipation. (Yellow Zone) Post-Halving Accumulation After the halving, we saw a period of accumulation as investors bought Bitcoin in anticipation of future price appreciation. This accumulation phase lasted for several months. Again this was the next best buying opportunity. Sametime there were many shake-off of inpatient investors. (Blue Zone) 2021 Parabolic Uptrend Towards the end of 2020 price-action was able to break out from the accumulation and resistance zone. 2021 resulted on the expected parabolic uptrend in the first half of the year. Then it was retrace. again a recovery during latter part of the year. This created a Double Top Candle stick formation. This concluded the bull market, and it did not give the expected blow-off candle like in 2017. Hope this post-analysis helped in order to build your plan for 2024 Halving and 2025 Expected Bull market Based on the historical evidence, it is possible that we will see a similar pattern play out in the lead-up to and after the 2022 halving. This could include: A period of accumulation as investors buy Bitcoin in anticipation of future price appreciation A breakout from the current resistance zone A sustained bull run as demand for Bitcoin continues to grow It is important to note that past performance is not indicative of future results. However, by understanding the historical price action of Bitcoin, we can better prepare for what may happen in the current cycle.
BNC:BLX
by cryptochi1986
1
BTC 2016 Halving VS 2020 HalvingBack in 2016 bitcoin had its halving day on the 9th July. After this bitcoin began to rally all the way to $19,000 over approximately 518 days. A percentage increase of 3,192%. If we compare this to the halving in 2020, apply the same principles and look at the bigger picture than its clear that bitcoin has only just began its newest bull cycle. If we were to see similar results to the 2016 halving that would mean BTC would reach almost $320,000... Whilst this seems like a million miles away think first about how far the crypto industry has come with Teslas purchase being the prime example. This is my speculation and would love to hear what people have to say in the comments.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by OX_Trading
2
BTC Re-Post From July 11 coming true!! Re-test Weekly 21 EMA No One is Talking About this...Re- Post I was Correct, just missed it by one week! BTC has always retraced to the Weekly 21EMA to test support... in both previous post-halvings. The Weekly 21 EMA was tested between the 12th and 16th week...BTC is in week 17 Post-Halving 2020. Weekly 21EMA is currently 9940...today's candle wick low was 9987 week-to-date... that's close enough for me! Now to stay bullish...the BTC weekly close, should not CLOSE below the Weekly 21EMA. Wicks below are fine, that could even mean a daily close below the Weekly 21EMA, but NOT the Weekly Sunday night close at 8pm Eastern.. No-one would listen to me...got this one right... I am lead to believe that the market cycles are getting longer so the 17th week after the Halving makes sense to me...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chefrusty
4
Bitcoin Halving Comparison, So Far So Good!History tends to repeat itself, and the bitcoin halving appears to be no exception to this particular rule. In 2016, during the second BTC halving, the BTC price experienced strong growth before the halving. A bear market followed, consisting of a 40% drop in price from the pre-halving high to the post-halving bottom. Afterward, a lengthy ranging period ensued. Before the third halving that took place in May 2020, Bitcoin also experienced strong growth of more than 150% from $3,800 to $10,000; just like in 2016, a fast crash followed just before the halving. However, the 2020 crash was truncated and nowhere near as severe as the bear market that traders saw in 2016. Based on this comparison, we can infer that a short correction may follow before the bull market commences. Bitcoin is currently experiencing a range. It took BTC around 160 days to break through the highest price before the halving. We currently sit at 67 days after the halving. While Bitcoin cycles are similar, they are not the same. While it would be impossible to predict accurately when the bullish market will start, based on past trends we can predict that it will most likely occur somewhere between 100-200 days after the halving (or 30 to 130 days from today).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cryptohopper
3
Trading The Bitcoin HalvingCryptohopper Newsletter Market Analysis After failing to break the resistance around $10,000, Bitcoin is closing in on the support level at $8,000. Bitcoin has had a correction after the last halving, so a short bear market scenario is not out of the question. The first and second halving overall provided some excellent opportunities for position traders. Today we will look at a strategy that would have increased your account by 3,500% if you had used it during the last halving! If you had bought $1,000 Bitcoin in September 2016 at $600 and held it to the top in December 2017 at $19,600, you would have made about 3,150% , and your account value would be 31,150$ . Most people will call this utterly unrealistic , as it is almost impossible to buy something at the bottom and hold it all the way to the top. However, what if we told you that there is a strategy that would have increased your account even more during this period? Position Trading A position trader is an individual who holds an investment for weeks or even months at a time. They are not concerned with the short term fluctuation and aim to catch the more significant swings in the market. According to Investopedia, most position traders place less than ten trades a year . So how can someone who barely trades beat a very bullish market? That’s what we are going to find out int he next section. Position Trading Strategy Our goal with position trading is to catch the bigger trends. Therefore trend-following indicators are the most appropriate to use in this case. In our case, we will use the crossover of the 5 and 25 Exponential Moving Average (EMA). When the 5 EMA crosses over the 25 EMA upwards, we will take a long position, and when it crosses it downwards, we will close our position. This trading method will allow you to ride each swing almost to the top. Then, if you have 1,000$ and you made the following 5 trades with these gains: 58%, 36%, 132%, 90%, 270% then your account will look like this: 1000$ * 1.58 * 1.36 * 2.32 * 1.9 * 3.7 = 35,046$. This strategy provides an even greater reward than if you would have bought at the bottom and held all the way to the top. Simultaneously, it is a lot more realistic as it is a simple trading strategy based on the EMA crossovers. Other trend-following indicators that you can use are the SMA, DEMA, TEMA, KAMA, MESA, Parabolic SAR, Ichimoku Cloud, T3, WMA, etc. All of these indicators are available at Cryptohoper, along with many more.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by cryptohopper
2
Post Bitcoin Halving Drop ???Hi friends hope you are well. Today I want to discuss that is it necessary for the Bitcoin to drop pre or post halving? In order to understand this principle we need to see the previous Bitcoin halvenings then we will move to the current having. If we watch the Bitcoin halving 2012 then we can observe that before halvening the price action dropped more than 25% and this bearish move was ended before the halving. On the other hand if we watch the Bitcoin halving 2016 then the price action started dropping down before the event and this bearish move was continued even after the halving event. During this drop BTC lost more than 40% of its value. Now if we move to the current halving event then it can be seen that before halving we have witnessed a very strong bearish move that leaded the BTC more than 65% down in the March 2020. Most of the traders say that this drop was due to the world pandemic issue. Therefore it is possible that this down move doesn't have any connection with pre or post halving drop. If we accept this then we can expect that the drop has been started since 8th of May when the price action reached at $10000 and started dropping down. The exponential moving averages: Moreover if we see the movement of price action with the exponential moving averages with the time period of 10 and 21. Then it can be seen that in 2012 the EMA 10 crossed down the EMA 21 before the Bitcoin halving. And after the halvening we can observe only a weak downtrend and during this weak trend the EMA 10 went very close to the EMA 21 but did not form a bear cross. After that both EMAs started moving up and then Bitcoin achieved more than 10000% profit within next one year. On the other hand in 2016 we can see that the EMA 10 formed the bear cross with EMA 21 after the Bitcoin halving then again the exponential moving average 10 crossed up EMA 21 and Bitcoin achieved more than 3000% bit gains within next one and a half year. Now let's move to the Bitcoin halving 2020 then it can be clearly seen that at this time EMA 10 is moving down and likely to form a bear cross with EMA 21 very soon. Even though the new candlestick has been opened below the EMA 21 but we cannot consider that the price action has broken down this EMA unless this candlestick will be completely opened and closed below exponential moving average 21. And we should wait for the death cross between two these two EMAs then we can expect a further very strong downward move before any long term bullish movement after Bitcoin halving. The price action may follow the relative strength index trend: In my previous post we have discussed that if the RSI is in downtrend but the price action is moving sideways or upward then finally the price action embrace the signal of relative strength index and it also moves down. At this time we can see that the RSI is in down trend even and this trend can be seen even on the daily chart, therefore the price action can start a downward move at anytime. However if the RSI will change its trend then the price action might not move down. Up channel: As we have already seen in my previous post that the Bitcoin has formed an up channel on the daily chart. And after hitting the resistance at $10,000 the price action drop down at the support of this channel. This time the price action is moving with the support, therefore there can be chances that the priceline will move up again from here to hit the resistance of the channel. But if the support of the channel will be broken down then the leading cryptocurrency can start a strong bearish rally. Bullish pennant: On the other hand on the same daily chart the price action of Bitcoin has formed a bullish pennant. At this time the price action is at the support of this pennant. And after hitting the resistance at this time BTC is at the support of this pennant and the green bullish candlesticks are appeared showing the tendency of the priceline to move up. The support of this pennant is also very critical if it will be broken down in the price action can start a strong bearish move as we have discussed in case of breaking down the channel support as well. The formation of bullish BAT: Now I would like to drive your attentions towards a very important move and that is the formation of bullish BAT pattern on the daily chart. At this time priceline of BTC is forming the last leg of this is BAT. And for the completion of this final leg we need the retracement between 0.786 to 0.886 Fibonacci sequence that starts from $8500 and ends up to $8300. If the price action will complete this is BAT that then there will be strong chanes that the price action can start a very strong bullish move from the potential reversal zone of this bullish BAT pattern. However the potential reversal zone of this pattern should be considered as stop loss. Because if the price action will break down this level then it can move more down for the formation of bullish Crab pattern. Conclusion: It is confirmed that post halving the Bitcoin starts very strong and long term bullish rally, however this is also a fact that pre or post halving period the Bitcoin also completes a bearish move as well. Therefore in case of breaking down the supports the Bitcoin can move further down, however if the supports will be saved then the Bitcoin can start long-term bullish move from here. Note: This idea is education purpose only and not intended to be investment advice, please seek a duly licensed professional and do you own research before any investment.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by moon333
1
Bitcoin Again Going Parabolic To Hit Upto $300KHi friends hope you are well today we will see how the Bitcoin turns parabolic after every halving event. For this purpose I would like to take you back to the first halvening event of 2012. And on weekly long-term chart we can observe that after the halving event the price action went strong bullish and moved in parabolic way for next one year. This powerful bullish rally was up to 10,000% and that was really a big move. After achieving the highest price the BTC dropped down again and in June 2014 the Bitcoin showed a recovery rally. That was the time when the people would be thinking that it it will be recovered back to the highest price that was $1163 at that time. But the price action moved down again and retraced up to 0.786 Fibonacci level. After this retracement the price action formed a double bottom on the strongest support of 200 simple moving average and turned bullish again. Parabolic move after halving event of 2016: Now if we take a look at the halving event of 2016. Then after this event the price action againg turned parabolic bullish and produced more than 3000% gains. After achieving the highest price the leading cryptocurrency dropped down again and in the month of June 2019 the price action again showed a recovery move up to $13880. And this was the time when we were thinking that the Bitcoin has finally started recovery rally and it will be moved back up to the previous highest price level. That is the $20,000 but the price action of Bitcoin again moved down and retraced up to 0.786 Fibonacci level. This time we can see that the priceline has again formed a double bottom on the 200 simple moving average on this weekly chart like it was happened back in 2015. Parabolic move after halving event of 2020: Now after this double bottom formation on 200SMA the price action has gone through the 2020 halving event. Therefore we can expect another parabolic move by the priceline of BTC. If we notice the previous bullish move after the halving event of 2016 then that was 70% less profitable than the bullish move that was happened after the halving event of 2012. So if we expect the 70% less profit that was produced after the halving event of 2016 then the BTC can easily achieve $100,000 price level. However if the Bitcoin again produces 3000% profit than it can reach upto $300K. Bitcoin is parabolic since came into existence: Now if we take a look at the complete price action of Bitcoin since it has been came into existence. Then it can be clearly seen that the Bitcoin is moving parabolic. And it has never truned bearish, because we can see after achieving every highest price level the Bitcoin retraces between 0.382 to 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. And the retracement upto 0.786 Fibonacci level can be called a correction move. Therefore we can say that after achieving every highest price in the history of Bitcoin the Bitcoin starts a correction for the next bullish move. The most important factor behind this parabolic move: On this weekly chart we can also observe that the basic reason for the parabolic bullish move of the Bitcoin is the 200 simple moving average. As this moving average is also moving in parabolic shape and not letting the price action to break down this 200SMA support. And this time again the priceline has hit at this support level and took bounce for the next bullish move and the 200 SMA is lifting up the Bitcoin price level in the parabolic way. Conclusion: After every halving event the BTC turns parabolic. If this happens again then Bitcoin can easily reach the $100K to $300K price level within next 2 to 3 years. Note: This idea is education purpose only and not intended to be investment advice, please seek a duly licensed professional and do you own research before any investment.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by moon333
Why The Bitcoin Dropping Fast Before The Bitcoin Halving 2020Halvening event of 2012: Hi friends hope you're well and welcome to the new update on Bitcoin. Today we will try to understand why the Bitcoin is dropping fast just before the halvening event. In order to understand this situation we need to move back to 2012 to watch the history of the Bitcoin halving. Then we can observe that when we had the Bitcoin halvening event in November 2012 then BTC started dropping down in August 2012 this drop was started from 18th August to 20th August 2012. And this was a steep waterfall crash after that the Bitcoin recovered but just before the having the Bitcoin dropped down again in October 2012. After that we have witnessed a strong bullish rally of more than 10000% for next one and a half year. Halvening event of 2016: Then in halvening event of 2016 we can notice that before the halving BTC started dropping down in Jun 2016. This drop was started from 19th Jun to 23rd Jun 2012. And this was another steep waterfall crash like we had before the halving of 2012. After that the Bitcoin recovered but just before the halving the BTC dropped down again from 3rd July to 2nd Aug 2016. After that we have witnessed a strong bullish rally of more than 3000% for next one and a half year. Halvening event of 2020: Now in current halvening event of 2020 we can again notice that before the halving BTC started dropping down from Feb to March 2020. This drop was from 15th Feb to 13th Mar 2020. And this was another waterfall crash like we had before the halving of 2012 and 2016. After that the leading cryptocurrency recovered back. But just before the halving the BTC has started dropping down again same as like before in 2012 and 2016. After this drop we can expect a long term bullish rally. This combination of these indicators has given final sell signals: As in my previous posts I told you that I am looking at the movement of BTC using the combination of these indicators to observe the bullish and bearish trend . 1st: Vervorrt heikin-ashi long-term candlestick oscillator. 2nd: Moving average convergence divergence (MACD). 3rd: Stochastic indicator. Ater placing these three indicators I came to know that since October 2019 the Bitcoin is following a specific pattern for the bearish rally. The Vervorrt heikin-ashi long-term candlestick oscillator is a powerful indicator that shows that the priceline is in bullish or bearish trend . When it turns green it means that Bitcoin is in bullish trend and when it turns red color then it means that Bitcoin is in bearish trend . Now after noticing closely the daily chart it can be observe that whenever this vervoort indicator turns green then the MACD indicator 1st gives sell signal and then again it gives buy signal and again it gives sell signal and on this third sell signal if the stochastic also gives the bear cross then the BTC turns bearish and starts the bearish move. It can be witnessed form 24th of October to 25th of November 2019. Then from 23rd of Jan up to 13th of March 2020. And if we see the current situation then the vervoort is again in green color and giving indication that we are in bullish trend , and the MACD has given a sell signal and after that we have received the buying signal and at this time the MACD has given the sell signal. Therefore we can expect that this time the bitcoin again follow the same pattern that it is following since October 2019. And it will start a bearish rally. This time I have also placed the relative strength index (RSI) oscillator. Then we can also observe that whenever we receive the final sell signal by the MACD and the BTC starts bearish rally then the RSI also visits the oversold zone. Therefore we can expect that if the Bitcoin will start a proper bearish move then the RSI will also again visit the oversold zone. Now up to what extent the Bitcoin can drop: Now the question is that if the Bitcoin start a bearish move then up to what extent the BTC will be dropped. For that first of all we need to watch out for an up channel formation that the Bitcoin has formed on the daily chart. This up channel is same as like the previous up channel formation that was formed from December 2019 up Feb 2020. And after breaking down the support of previous channel the price action turned very strong bearish and easily broke down the simple moving averages supports with the time period of 50, 100 and 200. And now it has a again started another up channel from March up till now. Here we can observe after a very strong attempt to break out the resistance of the channel finally the price action is likely to be filled in breaking out and now it is dropping down to hit the support of the channel. Here we have the 100 and 200 simple moving averages supports at the same level where we have the support of the channel and these supports are at $8,000. Then we have the 50 simple moving average support just below the support of the channel. And the 50 simple moving average is moving up to form the golden cross with 100 and 200 simple moving averages. If the 50 SMA will continue this upward move to form the golden then the priceline will not break down the support of this channel, however if the 50 simple moving average will not continue its upward move and it will start moving down then the price action will easily break down the 100 in 200 SMAs and the support of the channel. The Bitcoin has failed in re-testing the resistance block as support: We have already seen that on the daily chart the priceline was trying to breakout the resistance block from $9,000 to $9500 level. This is the most strongest support and resistance block that the Bitcoin could not breakout since after the drop off Dec 2017. Once in the month of February 2020 we have witnessed that a Bitcoin broke out this resistance block. After breaking out this resistance block the Priceline tried to retest previous resistance as support but this re-test was unsuccessful and the priceline dropped all the way down up to $4000. Now again the priceline Now I again the priceline of leading cryptocurrency has repeated the same move. The Bitcoin broke out the resistance of this block from 8th to 9th May 2020 and after breaking out the BTC tried to retest the previous resistance as support but again it has failed to retest this resistance block as support and dropped down. The Bitcoin is likely to be failed in breaking out the resistance of channel on long term chart: Now I would like to divert your attentions toward the down channel that has been formed on the long-term weekly chart. And we can see here that the priceline was also trying to break out the resistance of this down channel. But so far it is not successful in breaking out the resistance. If the Bitcoin will break down the support of the channel that has been formed on the daily chart then it may retest the 100 simple moving average support that we have within the down channel on this weekly chart. And this 100 SMA support is at this time at $7,100. If the price action will breakdown the 100 simple moving every support then it may retest the 200 SMA support and that is at $5700 at this time. And in case of breaking down the 200 simple moving average the Bitcoin may re-test the support of this down channel and that is at $4,800. However I'm not expecting as that much powerful downward move. In worst situation I'm expecting that the Bitcoin will take a bullish bounce from the 200 simple moving average support as we have already discussed in my previous articles that this is the strongest support ever in the history of Bitcoin that has been never broken down since it is appeared. However the further downward move depends in breaking down the support of an up channel on daily chart. Conclusion: All the chart patterns and the indicators are giving bearish signals, therefore the priceline of Bitcoin may turn bearish on short-term. But on long-term after the halving event we can expect a very strong bullish rally for at least 2 years. Note: This idea is education purpose only and not intended to be investment advice, please seek a duly licensed professional and do you own research before any investment.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by moon333
5