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Bitcoinsetup

BITCOIN breakdown IMPORTANT levelsAs you can see, Bitcoin price has been traded in consolidation for quite some time. Im using fib channel to ilustrate that picture, im not usualy using it to trade. The price has been reacted on almost every level in channel, having in mind that upper middle is slightly bullish, lower middle is slightly bearish. But as long as we are in that channel the long swing or short swing positions will be liquidated due to a price fluctuation, and thats why im taking short term trades as long as we are in this consolidation. Now adding Volume profile to this picture, we can see that there is not much strenght for the bulls to turn things around. They where defended the Value area twice, the big yellow pocket on the chart where there is a low volume to none, suggesting that if price breakdown to that level it will soar to 25k. The next defence was now, bouncing of the middle fib channel, liqudating the short positions who where aiming for the 25k. Thats why only the short term trades are in place. Next for the bull enthusiast, every time the price goes up, the sellers driving the price down even more to collect their stops and liquidity. As you can see the price tested 3 times the top upper channel, failing to breakthrough, making lower highs for days. As long as we are in the channel and having lower lows for me that is a bearish sentiment. Logically speaking, the price will aim to touch the lower channel for the third time, where is a big point of control sitting with big volume on that level which is 25k. Now that wont happen, until price closes below middle level in the channel, suggesting the bearish sentiment. Now this level is a dangerous because this level is with low volume, and very close to that breaking point on yellow pocket with basicaly no volume at all. This is a psychological level, where bulls are aware that if they lose that level the price will tank down, thats why we have those two big wicks on that level. Now if the price happen to close bellow the middle fib channel, and start to consolidate a little, gathering strenght for some continuation pattern, we will see the big move on 25k. 25k is the very strong buy zone, even if it breaks down a little, everyone will be jumping in, to buy for even lower price, where we could see a potential reversal for maybe a little longer uptrend, but even then we are far away from the bullrun.
by MarkoMarisavljevic
Is BTC getting ready for a rise?Based on the look of price action on the daily it looks like at least a temporary rise over the next 2-3+ days. The fake break towards the down side out of consolidation and then the break back into and through structure upwards indicates very strong probability to the upside. Also i see there are many orders sitting around the 29000 - 30000 price levels which may definitely be of interest to market makers. So any new guys or anybody with short term shorts around this level on lower charts than the daily please be careful and keep an eye on your positions as you could be swimming against the current.
Long
by SunTzu_V
1
Bitcoin 1D TF Bitcoin is undergoing a corrective phase following a significant 57% upward movement. I anticipate a decline in Bitcoin's value by at least 20%, as it currently resides within a bearish channel. However, once it reaches the range of my particular interest, which lies between 24836.98 and 25335.01, I expect Bitcoin to break out of the channel. Several factors contribute to this analysis, including the presence of a declining trend line, an inclining trend line, a rejection point, the bottom of the channel, and a bullish fib level of 0.5. After experiencing a 20% drop, I anticipate Bitcoin's momentum to shift towards a bullish swing.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ChartStrategist
Bitcoin Weekly Analysis 📊 BTCUSDT (BITCOIN ) 💹 Time Frame: Weekly ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ #BTC on Weekly chart, hovering over the weekly support area around $40,600 and $36,000. Price just playing off the zones which are made on LTF. We can continue to see the moves unless fundamentals are not cleared. You can lower the risk in the trade until that. Weekly needs breaks and close above $52,000 but on daily, price need only $46,000 to turn the market bullish. Use proper stops in trades as the market may become Volatilein the coming days. AmirHossein 📅 02.19.2022 ⚠️ (DYOR)
by Trader_Needs
4
Bitcoin (BTC/XBT) Daily Long&Short Trade Setups 2021/03/17Market Overview Price Action: Bitcoin took a large dump after establishing a new AllTimeHigh @ $62K. It has found a temporary bottom at $53K, but is still at risk of a larger fall unless we start to break some resistance levels to the upside, including the 200MAs, the upper end of the ascending channel, and finally the 61.8 Fib. Patterns: There is an ascending channel that price is so far following. Price should continue to go up in this channel. It will be critical for price to break above this channel, otherwise it risks being a very large bear flag that leads to a much larger 2nd leg of the dump. Areas of Interest: The area(s) of interest for me are the 61.8 Fib @ $58.6K and the Support @ $53.2. Once price reaches one of these areas, I will monitor for entry confirmations. If the entry confirmations are aligned, I will take a trade and share the my trade in real time. Of course, it is possible we just pump to ATH of $58K directly from here, in which case we will be looking for trading opportunities at that level. Trade Setups Below are the potential trade setups that I would be interested in trading: Long Trade Setup #1: False Breakdown 1. Price Action: Price breaks below the then rapidly climbs above $53.2K, forming a bear trap 2. Trade Entry Confirmations: A breakdown candlestick  followed by a reclaiming candlestick, above average volume on both breakdown candle and reclaiming candle, MACD bottoming Short Trade Setup #1: Retest and Continuation (61.8Fib) 1. Price Action: Price needs to move back up to the 61.8Fib @ $58.6K and bounce back down. 2. Trade Entry Confirmations: Bearish candlestick pattern, above average volume, MACD topping out My Recent Trades 2021/ 03/15: I had a winning trade! I entered long @ $$60,000, SL @ $$58,705, price reached a high of $60,633.4, giving a risk reward ratio of 0.5:1. 2021/ 03/01: I had a winning trade! I entered long @ $46,288.00, SL @ $45797.19, price reached a high of $49,470.0, giving a risk reward ratio of 6.5:1. 2021/ 02/28: I had a winning trade! I entered long @ $44,875.0, SL @ $43,800.0, price reached a high of $45,530.6, giving a risk reward ratio of 0.6:1. DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a financial advisor and this post is NOT financial/investment/trading advice. I am simply sharing what I am doing, and I will not be responsible for any actions you take based on the analysis and comments that I provide. The cryptocurrency market is extremely volatile, and you WILL lose all your money if you are inexperienced! DO NOT risk any money that you cannot afford to lose and always be cautious and manage your risk! What are your thoughts? Please leave your ideas and analysis in the comments below! Do give the post a like and a follow.
by cryptotraderog
2
BITCOIN (BTC/XBT) DAILY LONG&SHORT TRADE SETUPS 2021/01/04LIVE TRADES WILL BE CALLED IN THE LATEST DAILY POST. FOLLOW ME TO TRADE LIVE WITH ME. MARKET OVERVIEW Price Action: Bitcoin established a new ATH @ $34.8K and has slowly retraced, now nearing the 200MAs. Chart Patterns: No significantly visible chart patterns. Areas of Interest: The area(s) of interest for us are the highs @ $34.8K and the 200MAs @ $32-32.5K. Once price reaches one of our areas of interest and gives us a valid entry signal, I will update the trade, so make sure you follow me to get the trade entry signals in real time. TRADES(S) RECAP:: LATEST 3 TRADES 2020/01/03: We had a winning trade! We entered long @ $33380, SL @ 32.8K, price reached a high of $33.8K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 1:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 1BTC. While this has been our smallest win so far following our biggest win, a win is a win. Always secure profits and protect your capital. 2020/01/01: We had another winning trade! We entered long @ $29.1K, Stop Loss @ $28.8K, and priced reached a high of $33.3K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 14:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 14BTC! This is one of our biggest wins so far! 2020/01/01: We had a winning trade! We entered short @ $29.3K, with a Stop Loss @ ~$29.6K, and price reached a low of $28.6K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 2:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 2BTC. As this was a false breakout trade, we could've also entered a short on ETH, entered short @ $735, SL $743, price reached a low of $714, giving a risk reward ratio of 2.5:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 2.5BTC. TRADE SETUPS Below are the potential trade setups that I would be interested in trading. Regardless of the path that the price takes, I will be monitoring the market for a valid trade entry signal. Long Trade Setup #1: Breakout and Continuation To open a long position, we are waiting for price to break resistance, move back down to test previous resistance as support and then bounce back up. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price breaks above the high of $34.8K with force, creating space between the price and $34.8K, falls back down to $34.8K and bounce back up. 2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern such as a bullish engulfing candle, a pinbar, or a multiple candlestick breakdown (a large red candle followed by multiple green candles that eventually close above the open/high of the large red candle) 2.1 Ideally Engulfing / Break candle has a large candle body with small wicks 2.2 Ideally Engulfing /Break candle closes near the highs of the candle 3. Volume: Above average volume on the bullish engulfing candle, pinbar, or on any of the multiple green candles that eventually break the red candle (ideally on the candle that breaks) 4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less negative (changing from red to pink) Long Trade Setup #2: Retest and Continuation (200MAs) To open a long position, we are waiting for price to retrace back down to test the 200MAs and then continue moving up. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price needs to move back down to the 200MAs, currently projected to be @ $32-32.2K by the time price reaches it, and bounce back up. 2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern such as a bullish engulfing candle, a pinbar, or a multiple candlestick breakdown (a large red candle followed by multiple green candles that eventually close above the open/high of the large red candle) 3. Volume: Above average volume on the bullish engulfing candle, pinbar, or on any of the multiple green candles that eventually break the red candle (ideally on the candle that breaks) 4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less negative (changing from red to pink) Short Trade Setup #1: False Breakout To open a short position, we are waiting for price to break above the horizontal resistance @ $34.8K and then fall back down. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price breaks above the high of $34.8K and then rapidly falls below $34.8K, forming a bull trap 2. Candlestick Pattern: A breakout candlestick (candle close above $34.8K) followed by a breakdown candlestick (candle close below $34.8K) 2.1 Ideally breakout and breakdown candlesticks are consecutive candles, but can also have a few candles in between the two 2.2 Ideally the breakdown candle has a large candle body with very small wicks 3. Volume: Above average volume ( volume above the average volume line) on both breakout candle and breakdown candle, ideally the breakdown candle's volume is a local high 4. MACD: MACD histogram topping out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less positive (color changing from dark green to light green) NOTE: For false breakout/false breakdown trade setups, sometimes trading the other pair (eg. trading BTC when the setup is on ETH and vice versa) can be even more profitable if the other pair is looking weaker (for false breakout setup) or stronger (for false breakdown). Some indicators to consider are where the price is relative to the 200MAs, size of recent candles, volume , and overall price action, market structure, and chart patterns. ENTRY SIGNAL TYPES Trade calls will be separated into two categories, official and unofficial. The reason for the distinction is that official entry calls are only for high probability trade setups whereas unofficial calls might have slightly lower probability of winning but positive net profitability due to high risk reward. As I see a lot of traders, do not practice proper risk management and position sizing, I want to protect them from the second type of trades. At the same time, I know there are more sophisticated traders who can take advantage of both types of calls. So this is the solution that I’ve come up with, which is to separate the two trade types into two types of entry calls. Official entry calls will come with detailed entry, stop loss and take profit levels, whereas unofficial trade entries might or might not and will rely a little bit more on the trader themselves to manage the trade. This is one way to distinguish the more experienced traders from the newer ones. If you are unable to enter an unofficial trade entry without those details, then it means that you shouldn’t be taking those trades and should stick only to the official trades. 1. Official entry calls will be posted using “trading active” post type. 2. Potential good trading opportunities that I’m not calling an official entry on will be posted using “comments” post type. ENTRY CONFIRMATIONS Ideally we get all confirmations for an entry, but sometimes we might take a trade when we have fewer confirmations. The more confirmations, the higher the win probability, though it also means you miss out on some profitable trades if you're only taking trades when we have all confirmations. It's up to your own risk appetite to decide when you feel comfortable entering a trade. You can also adjust position size based on level of conviction, entering a bigger position when there are more confirmations. Make sure you practice proper risk management and money management. TRADE MANAGEMENT Entry: typically enter at close of entry signal candle Stop Loss: We typically put a SL around the high / low of the entry area, though we might adjust based on market conditions such as high ATR ( average true range ) or long wicks. Take Profit: We typically aim for at least a 2:1 RRR (risk reward ratio), but you can decide to take profits earlier, adjust stop loss as we get into profit, take partial profit, leave a small portion for larger gains, etc. How you want to manage depends on your own risk appetite and what you are comfortable with. RISK MANAGEMENT / POSITION SIZING Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. The key is to stay in the game long enough for long term probabilities to play out. Even strategies with 90%+ win rate will have losing trades, so if you go all in one every trade, eventually you will blow up your account. My recommendation is to dynamically change your position size based on the size of the stop loss so that you are risking 1-2% of your total account size on any given trade. This means that if you’re wrong and the trade hitting the stop loss, you lose 1-2% of your account. As an illustration, if your account balance is 1BTC, then the most you should lose on any given trade should be 0.01-0.02BTC. Notice that I didn’t mention leverage here. Because what leverage (3X, 5X,10X, etc.) doesn’t matter here. What matters is the position size that matches up with a 1-2% account balance risk. HOW TO USE MY ANALYSIS Every day I post potential areas of interest and trade setups based on the latest market conditions and market structure. Once price reaches one of the identified areas of interest and gives a valid entry signal, I will post the entry, along with stop loss and take profit levels, in real time. Make sure to follow the latest daily post, as trades will be called in that post. No hindsight 20/20 here. Everything is in real time for full transparency and so that you can actually enter the same trades that I'm entering. Some trades only give us a few minutes to enter, which is why it's imperative that you follow me so that you don't miss out. Below are two ways that you can use the analysis that I publish daily: 1. You can integrate my analysis into your own analysis, for example by using it as a starting point, or as confirmation of your own TA, or to identify potential trades for yourself. 2. You follow the trade setups and trade entry signals that I give in real time. MAKE SURE YOU FOLLOW ME SO THAT YOU DONT MISS TRADE SIGNALS, GET THE LATEST SL AND TP LEVELS, AND FOLLOW THE TRADE PLAY OUT IN REAL TIME! DISCLAIMER: I'M NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND I WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR WINS OR LOSSES, DYOR. QUESTION: Would you like me to conduct technical analysis on alts? If yes, please let me know in the comments which alts you’d like me to cover.
by cryptotraderog
9
BITCOIN (BTC/XBT) DAILY LONG&SHORT TRADE SETUPS 2021/01/03MARKET OVERVIEW Price Action: There was a ton of volatility in BTC, with thousand(s) dollar movements to the upside and downside. BTC made a new high at $33.3K, retraced back down to $30.3, and now creating a new high as i am typing this. Chart Patterns: No significant chart patterns. Areas of Interest: The area(s) of interest for us are the previous resistance @$33.3K and the 200MAs at $30.8K-31.2K. Once price reaches one of our areas of interest and gives us a valid entry signal, I will update the trade, so make sure you follow me to get the trade entry signals in real time. TRADES(S) RECAP: LATEST 3 TRADES 2020/01/01: We had another winning trade! We entered long @ $29.1K, Stop Loss @ $28.8K, and priced reached a high of $29469 so far, giving us a risk reward ratio of 1.5:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 1.5BTC. 2020/01/01: We had a winning trade! We entered short @ $29.3K, with a Stop Loss @ ~$29.6K, and price reached a low of $28.6K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 2:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 2BTC. As this was a false breakout trade, we could've also entered a short on ETH, entered short @ $735, SL $743, price reached a low of $714, giving a risk reward ratio of 2.5:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 2.5BTC. 2020/12/31: We had a winning trade! We entered short @ $29.3K, with a Stop Loss @ ~$29.5K, and price reached a low of $28.8K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 2.5:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 2.5BTC. As this was a false breakout trade, you could've also decided to enter a short on ETH. Entry would've been $745, SL $749, price reached a low of $725 so far, giving a risk reward ratio of 5:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 5BTC. TRADE SETUPS Below are two potential trade setups that I would be interested in trading. Regardless of the path that the price takes, I will be monitoring the market for a valid trade entry signal. Long Trade Setup #1: Breakout and Continuation To open a long position, we are waiting for price to create a new high, move back down to test previous resistance as support and then bounce back up. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price creates space between the price and the $33.3K level, falls back down to $33.3K and bounce back up. 2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern such as a bullish engulfing candle, a pinbar , or a multiple candlestick breakdown (a large red candle followed by multiple green candles that eventually close above the open/high of the large red candle) 2.1 Ideally Engulfing / Break candle has a large candle body with small wicks 2.2 Ideally Engulfing /Break candle closes near the highs of the candle 3. Volume: Above average volume on the bullish engulfing candle, pinbar , or on any of the multiple green candles that eventually break the red candle (ideally on the candle that breaks) 4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less negative (changing from red to pink) Long Trade Setup #2: Retest and Continuation (200MAs) To open a long position, we are waiting for price to retrace back down to test the 200MAs and then continue moving up. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price needs to move back down to the 200MAs @$30.8-31.2 and bounce back up. 2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern such as a bullish engulfing candle, a pinbar, or a multiple candlestick breakdown (a large red candle followed by multiple green candles that eventually close above the open/high of the large red candle) 3. Volume: Above average volume on the bullish engulfing candle, pinbar, or on any of the multiple green candles that eventually break the red candle (ideally on the candle that breaks) 4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less negative (changing from red to pink) ENTRY SIGNALS Trade calls will be separated into two categories, official and unofficial. The reason for the distinction is that official entry calls are only for high probability trade setups whereas unofficial calls might have slightly lower probability of winning but positive net profitability due to high risk reward. As I see a lot of traders, do not practice proper risk management and position sizing, I want to protect them from the second type of trades. At the same time, I know there are more sophisticated traders who can take advantage of both types of calls. So this is the solution that I’ve come up with, which is to separate the two trade types into two types of entry calls. Official entry calls will come with detailed entry, stop loss and take profit levels, whereas unofficial trade entries might or might not and will rely a little bit more on the trader themselves to manage the trade. This is one way to distinguish the more experienced traders from the newer ones. If you are unable to enter an unofficial trade entry without those details, then it means that you shouldn’t be taking those trades and should stick only to the official trades. 1. Official entry calls will be posted using “trading active” post type. 2. Potential good trading opportunities that I’m not calling an official entry on will be posted using “comments” post type. ENTRY CONFIRMATIONS Ideally we get all confirmations for an entry, but sometimes we might take a trade when we have fewer confirmations. The more confirmations, the higher the win probability, though it also means you miss out on some profitable trades if you're only taking trades when we have all confirmations. It's up to your own risk appetite to decide when you feel comfortable entering a trade. You can also adjust position size based on level of conviction, entering a bigger position when there are more confirmations. Make sure you practice proper risk management and money management. TRADE MANAGEMENT I have put in preliminary Stop Loss and Take Profit on the chart, but these will depend on how the entry setup forms, so I will update when we have a valid entry signal. Stop Loss: We typically put a SL around the high / low of the entry area, though we might adjust based on market conditions such as high ATR ( average true range ) or long wicks. Take Profit: We typically aim for at least a 2:1 RRR (risk reward ratio), but you can decide to take profits earlier, adjust stop loss as we get into profit, take partial profit, leave a small portion for larger gains, etc. How you want to manage depends on your own risk appetite and what you are comfortable with. RISK MANAGEMENT / POSITION SIZING Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. The key is to stay in the game long enough for long term probabilities to play out. Even strategies with 90%+ win rate will have losing trades, so if you go all in one every trade, eventually you will blow up your account. My recommendation is to dynamically change your position size based on the size of the stop loss so that you are risking 1-2% of your total account size on any given trade. This means that if you’re wrong and the trade hitting the stop loss, you lose 1-2% of your account. As an illustration, if your account balance is 1BTC, then the most you should lose on any given trade should be 0.01-0.02BTC. Notice that I didn’t mention leverage here. Because what leverage (3X, 5X,10X, etc.) doesn’t matter here. What matters is the position size that matches up with a 1-2% account balance risk. HOW TO USE MY ANALYSIS Every day I post potential areas of interest and trade setups based on the latest market conditions and market structure. Once price reaches one of the identified areas of interest and gives a valid entry signal, I will post the entry, along with stop loss and take profit levels, in real time. No hindsight 20/20 here. Everything is in real time for full transparency and so that you can actually enter the same trades that I'm entering. Some trades only give us a few minutes to enter, which is why it's imperative that you follow me so that you don't miss out. Below are two ways that you can use the analysis that I publish daily: 1. You can integrate my analysis into your own analysis, for example by using it as a starting point, or as confirmation of your own TA, or to identify potential trades for yourself. 2. You follow the trade setups and trade entry signals that I give in real time. MAKE SURE YOU FOLLOW ME SO THAT YOU DONT MISS TRADE SIGNALS, GET THE LATEST SL AND TP LEVELS, AND FOLLOW THE TRADE PLAY OUT IN REAL TIME! DISCLAIMER: I'M NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND I WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR WINS OR LOSSES, DYOR. QUESTION: Would you like me to conduct technical analysis on alts? If yes, please let me know in the comments which alts you’d like me to cover.
by cryptotraderog
25
BITCOIN (BTC/XBT) DAILY BUY&SELL TRADE SETUPS 2020/12/28Market Overview Bitcoin has pumped massively this month, especially in the past few days. In previous years, Bitcoin has also tended to pump in December in what some call the "Santa Rally". Historically speaking, this rally in December has been followed by a correction in January, so it's important to exercise some caution. In fact, it would be very healthy to have a correction in order for us to set up for another bullish move up. If we continue to go parabolic without a correction / consolidation, we increase the risk of a blow-off top. Personally I'd prefer we have a more sustainable bull market that takes us into $100K+ rather than a short term parabolic move that tops out at $40-50K. The two main levels immediately significant on the charts that we want to focus on are the new All-Time-High of $28.4K and the 200MAs @ the $26.3K zone. We will be looking for trading opportunities in these two areas, and I've laid out three potential trade setups in detail below Trade Recap Yesterday we has a retest and continuation trade where BTC moved down to test the 200MAs and successfully bounced up, giving us a 2:1 RRR winning trade. Long Trade Setup #1: Retest and Continuation To open a long position, we are waiting for price to retrace back down to test the 200MAs and then continue moving up. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price needs to move back down to the 200MAs and bounce back up (200MAs currently projected to be $26.3K zone). 2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern such as a bullish engulfing candle, a pinbar, or a multiple candlestick breakdown (a large red candle followed by multiple green candles that eventually close above the open/high of the large red candle) 3. Volume: Above average volume on the bullish engulfing candle, pinbar, or on any of the multiple green candles that eventually break the red candle (ideally on the candle that breaks) 4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less negative (changing from red to pink) Long Trade Setup #2: Breakout and Continuation To open a long position, we are waiting for price to break resistance, move back down to test previous resistance as support and then bounce back up. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price breaks above the high of $28.4K with force, creating space between the price and $28.4K, falls back down to $28.4K and bounce back up. 2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern such as a bullish engulfing candle, a pinbar, or a multiple candlestick breakdown (a large red candle followed by multiple green candles that eventually close above the open/high of the large red candle) 2.1 Ideally Engulfing / Break candle has a large candle body with small wicks 2.2 Ideally Engulfing /Break candle closes near the highs of the candle 3. Volume: Above average volume on the bullish engulfing candle, pinbar, or on any of the multiple green candles that eventually break the red candle (ideally on the candle that breaks) 4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less negative (changing from red to pink) Short Trade Setup: False Breakout To open a short position, we are waiting for price to break above the horizontal resistance @ $28.4K and then fall back down. Trade Entry Confirmation: 1. Price Action: Price breaks above the high of $28.4K and then rapidly falls below $28.4K, forming a bull trap 2. Candlestick Pattern: A breakout candlestick (candle close above $28.4K) followed by a breakdown candlestick (candle close below $28.4K) 2.1 Ideally breakout and breakdown candlesticks are consecutive candles, but can also have a few candles in between the two 2.2 Ideally the breakdown candle has a large candle body with very small wicks 3. Volume: Above average volume (volume above the average volume line) on both breakout candle and breakdown candle, ideally the breakdown candle's volume is a local high 4. MACD: MACD histogram topping out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less positive (color changing from dark green to light green) Entry Confirmations: Ideally we get all confirmations for an entry, but sometimes we might take a trade when we have fewer confirmations. The more confirmations, the higher the win probability, though it also means you miss out on some profitable trades if you're only taking trades when we have all confirmations. It's up to your own risk appetite to decide when you feel comfortable entering a trade. You can also adjust position size based on level of conviction, entering a bigger position when there are more confirmations. Make sure you practice proper risk management and money management. Trade Management: I have put in preliminary Stop Loss and Take Profit on the chart, but these will depend on how the entry setup forms, so I will update when we have a valid entry signal. Stop Loss: We typically put a SL around the high / low of the entry area, though we might adjust based on market conditions such as high ATR ( average true range ) or long wicks. Take Profit: We typically aim for at least a 2:1 RRR (risk reward ratio), but you can decide to take profits earlier, adjust stop loss as we get into profit, take partial profit, leave a small portion for larger gains, etc. How you want to manage depends on your own risk appetite and what you are comfortable with. MAKE SURE YOU FOLLOW ME SO THAT YOU DONT MISS TRADE SIGNALS, GET THE LATEST SL AND TP LEVELS, AND FOLLOW THE TRADE PLAY OUT IN REAL TIME! DISCLAIMER: I'M NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND I WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR WINS OR LOSSES, DYOR.
by cryptotraderog
4
BTC Trade Setups 2020/12/22There are two potential trade setups that could develop and we can wait patiently to see if either setup gives us a good trade entry. Scenario 1: False Breakdown at Horizontal Support In this first scenario, we are waiting for price to hit the horizontal support @~$21800 and then bounce back up. Confirmation criteria for entering a long position: 1. Candlestick: A breakdown candlestick (candle close below support @~$21800) followed by a reclaiming candlestick (candle close above $21800), ideally breakdown and reclaiming candlesticks are consecutive candles, but also have a few candles in between. 2. Volume: Above average volume ( volume above the average volume line) on both breakdown candle and reclaiming candle, ideally the reclaiming candle's volume is a local high 3. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less negative (color changing from red to pink) Ideally we get all three confirmations above for an entry, but sometimes we might only get 1 or 2 confirmations. The more confirmations, the higher the win probability. Scenario 2: Rejection at Resistance In the second scenario, we are waiting for price to go up to the confluent resistance zone of the 200MAs and 61.8 Fib Retracement and then fall back down. This zone is currently projected to be ~$23350, but could be slightly different once we get to that level based on price action. Confirmation criteria for entering a short position: 1. Candlestick: A bearish candlestick pattern such as a bearish engulfing candle or a multiple candlestick breakdown (a large green candle followed by multiple red candles that eventually close below the open/low of the large green candle) 2. Volume: Above average volume on the bearish engulfing candle / on any of the multiple red candles that eventually break the green candle (ideally on the candle that breaks) 3. MACD: MACD histogram topping out (changing from dark green to light green Ideally we get all three confirmations above for an entry, but sometimes we might only get 1 or 2 confirmations. The more confirmations, the higher the win probability. Please follow for daily trading levels and potential trade setups on Bitcoin and Ethereum. I will be posting trade setups at about this time every day.
by cryptotraderog
2
Bitcoin Triangle Pattern - The Bears Remain Strong!Bitcoin has been trading in a sideways pattern after a rapid decline and retest of a key resistance level. The sideways move has been making 3-3-3-3-3 patterns except is wave "b" that looks impulsive. This contracting corrective price action can be easily labeled as an Elliot Wave triangle. The breaks of the wave "d" low, green line, will confirm the completion of the triangle and the breach of the red line will invalidate the short setup and the triangle idea. What's your view on BTCUSD? Let's interact in the comment! Thanks for reading, Veejahbee.
Short
by Veejahbee
4
Where is Bitcoin Heading to, North or South? Elliot Wave GuideWhen it comes to Elliot Wave analysis, we tend to have alternative count which keeps us on the line for both the bullish and bearish scenario. In Bitcoin's case, the point is to know whether the correction is complete and the new bull leg has started or not. Let's take a look at it via the Elliot Wave Principle. In the main count, the guideline suggests that the corrective pattern is unfolding as a complex double three/zigzag pattern labeled (w)-(x)-(y)-(x)-(z). While (w)-(x)-(y)-(x) is very clear, the problem is whether wave (z) is completed. From my count, wave (z) is not completed yet and the five-wave in wave "b" is just part of an expanded flat pattern, that's a sell-off in wave c of (z) is imminent. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO However, in the alternative count, I have labeled the wave in such a way that the (w)-(x)-(y)-(x)-(z) correction is already completed and the recent five-wave rally is the beginning of the new bullish phase for BTC. Because according to the Elliot Wave principle, five-wave always indicates the direction of the larger trend, but we will need to see a corrective pattern in "wave ii" that must not exceed $6459 area to validate the impulse move. At this stage, it's just a matter of waiting to know which way to go. What's your view on Bitcoin? Let me know in the comment. Thanks for reading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Veejahbee