Bitcoin (BTCUSDT): Trade Wave 5—Next Stop $127,000?Bitcoin’s current structure is lining up for a classic Elliott Wave fifth wave scenario, and the setup could offer a high-reward trade as we look for a measured push toward the $127,000 area. Here’s what’s standing out in the recent price action:
What the Current Structure Shows (Primary Scenario)
Wave 4 Correction Complete: After peaking in wave iii near $124,000, BTC pulled back and has potentially completed a wave iv correction. Price respected the Fibonacci retracement zones bouncing near the 38.2% retracement at $117,116.
Preparing for Wave 5: With support confirmed, price action is stabilizing and looks primed for a final motive push—wave 5—to the upside. The target projection for wave 5 is around $127,000, in line with both the 61.8% extension of the previous swing and the common equality projection for wave 5 vs. wave 1 when wave 3 is extended.
Why the Count Is Labeled This Way
The advance from early July kicked off with impulsive movement, subdividing cleanly into smaller waves that align with classic Elliott structure.
Wave iii is the clear standout—steep, extended, and carrying most of the move’s energy, which checks the box for a strong third wave.
The cluster of Fibonacci and previous resistance/support near $127,000 offers strong technical confluence for the next objective.
Trade Setup: Riding Wave 5 to $127,000
Entry Zone: Consider longs on breakouts above the current consolidation, ideally after confirmation of support holding near $117,100–$116,000.
Stop Loss: Place stops just below $113,300 (the 61.8% retracement), or tighter for risk management depending on your position size and timeframe.
Target: $127,000—where wave 5 projects to equal the length of wave 1 and aligns with multiple Fibonacci targets.
What to Watch Next (Confirmation or Invalidation)
Confirmation: An impulsive move above the interim high at $120,000–$121,000 with strong volume would confirm wave 5 is underway and that bulls have regained control.
Invalidation: A break below $110,500 would invalidate this setup and suggest a more complex correction is taking shape.
Final Steps: Monitor for impulsive character in the rally—wave 5s can sometimes truncate, so don’t get complacent at resistance.
Alternate Count
If price fails to hold support and breaks down, BTC could still be in an extended or complex fourth-wave correction—possibly a running flat or triangle—before wave 5 eventually resumes.
