Bitcoin Monthly compared to Historical Cycle Tops-UPDATE $400K ?
Keeping this simple
PA is on the 3rd of 3 Candles below that Threshold line. The comparison is the same position back in 2017 ( left Arrow ), Same Months, same position and also in the 4th year of the Cycle.
Now, I will say, I am one of the many that are saying "this time is different" and yet, when we see this.....well....Is it ?
We will find out in time but for now, Lets follow the chart, as we Must......Charts Never Lie
SO, for that Green candle to touch the threshold line, we are looking around the current ATH and then, when MAY comes in, we need to stay above.
Now, The monthly Candle Colours charts I post, mentioned, that if April closes Green, May has a High Percent chance of also doing that.
We have to wait and see - 1 Week to go till April closes.
As you can see, historically, The year with the Green Box is the year we go to ATH and above the upper trend line, with the ATH on or above that dashed line.
This puts this cycle ATH around, or above, $400K !
That is near Twice my current projection.
Is this time different. ?
There is a chart I have that explains how Bitcoin has been under an Arc od resistance since it's crea\ion and This is something that could keep PA down to the 250K ATH that is expected by so many
The chart is Below, it exoplains itself
So, the next 6 weeks are Pivotal to how this cycle will play out, with one of two ATH zones available.
But more importantly, Bitcoin PA NEEDS to break above and away from that Arc of resistance....and THAT WOULD MAKE THIS TIME DIFFERENT
Enjoy the ride guys and Gals
Bitcointrading
Bitcoin Cycle Update – Are We Nearing the Peak?Check out this BTCUSDT chart – we’re at GETTEX:92K today, and seems like things are heating up!
▸We’ve seen a Cycle Bottom in late 2022 - early 2023, followed by strong Bull runs in 2023 and 2024.
▸Those Consolidation phases (sideways channels) gave us the perfect setup for massive pumps!
▸Right now, we’re in a Pause Triangle after a big rally – but the Cycle Top could be just around the corner in mid-2025.
▸After that? A potential Bear phase – time to plan your moves!
💡 What’s your strategy? Are you riding this wave to the top, or preparing for the next dip? Let’s discuss 📨
Bitcoin Aligns with the 2017 Cycle ModelThere’s growing speculation that the current Bitcoin cycle mirrors the market behavior seen in 2017.
Intrigued by this, I conducted my own analysis. I overlaid the 2014–2017 cycle pattern onto the current chart for comparison.
The results?
A striking resemblance in both the overall shape and the distinct correction and impulse phases.
It seems history may not repeat itself exactly, but it certainly rhymes. 📊
BTCUSD Intraday Move 22-04-2025📊 BTCUSD Analysis – April 22, 2025
Price action is currently forming a rising wedge, typically a bearish pattern, indicating that a short-term correction may occur before the next bullish impulse. The structure shows consolidation with weakening momentum, suggesting that a pullback to demand zones is likely.
We have two strong support zones identified:
Zone 1: 86,400 – 86,800 — minor support from recent consolidation.
Zone 2: 84,700 – 85,100 — major demand area aligned with previous breakout and price reaction.
A retracement into either of these zones offers high-probability buy opportunities for continuation toward the upper resistance trendline and prior high near 89,700.
📈 BTCUSD Buy Signal:
Buy Entry #1: 86,400 – 86,800
Buy Entry #2: 84,700 – 85,100
Take Profit: 89,700
Stop Loss:
For Entry 1: Below 86,200
For Entry 2: Below 84,500
Trade Idea: Wait for bullish price action (engulfing candle, pin bar, or volume spike) before entering.
BTCUSD: Heavily supported, targeting $160k.Bitcoin is neutral on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 51.863, MACD = 1668.900, ADX = 41.878), running a bullish steak of 3 green 1W candles in a row. Supported heavily by the 1W MA50, this looks like all previous HL bottoms since late 2022. Those kickstated bullish waves that have reached at least the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. The medium term trade here is long, TP = 160,000.
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BTCUSD: 4H Golden Cross to skyrocket it to $100kBitcoin has stabilized from the strong correction earlier in the month and that is reflected on its neutral 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.619, MACD = 70.800, ADX = 32.691). This suggests that the market has priced a bottom and since it already broke over the LH trendline, the 4H Golden Cross that was just formed today may be the trigger to resume the long term bullish trend. The bottoming pattern is a very favorable Inverted Head and Shoulders, which technically targets the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. With the 1D RSI already on a HL bullish divergence, we are buying this breakout, aiming at the 2.0 Fib extension (TP = 100,000), which is very conveniently just under the 0.786 Fib from the ATH, typically a recovery's first target.
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BTCUSDT has reached a pivotal point.Market Alert: Bitcoin's Crucial Moment
The battle lines are drawn! BTCUSDT has reached a pivotal point, slamming into the trendline resistance zone that's proven to be a formidable foe for bulls. Will the bears finally break through, or will the bulls rally for another attempt at higher grounds?
Our analysis reveals a high probability of rejection at this critical level, setting the stage for a potential downturn. If our expectations play out, we could see BTCUSDT plummeting towards the $81K and $80K support zones. These levels will be make-or-break for the short-term trend, and traders would do well to keep a close eye on them.
Stay alert, stay informed, and let's ride the waves of volatility together! The market is full of opportunities, and with the right insights, you can navigate even the most turbulent of times.
On a year on Year basis Bitcoin is where it was in early 2017
I have been talking about Bitcoin following the 2013 - 2017 Fractal and this chart shows us, in a different way, how this is still Valid.
The vertical lines on this chart are January of each year.
You can see from the Arrow on the left and right, where we are in relation to 2017.
Things to note
When we first touched the dotted line on both occasions, it led to a GREEN RED GREEN candle, however, in 2024, we got there earlier than we should have maybe and so we have had to "Wait" to fall back into date sequence.
Why ?
If we look back at 2017, we remained below that dotted line till end of April - Statistically MAY is a great month for Big moves
In my monthly candle analysis, I have also mentioned that using monthly candle close patterns, May is likely to be the better month for PA to rise higher
We seem to be playing this out BUT we need to notice how PA is Below that Dotted line.
PA is under pressure and yet in a great position though the trading volume is Low and consequentially, the candle sizes are not that impressive.
We are half way through April . Things will change and Fast......
Hang on
Bitcoin BTC price analysisThis is approximately the roadmap we have "imagined" for the coming weeks for the movement of the CRYPTOCAP:BTC price:
1️⃣ The most optimistic scenario is that the OKX:BTCUSDT price stays above $76100 - 77100, which means that the “bottom” has finally been found, and we can organize at least a rebound to $94k.
2️⃣ Not a pleasant scenario, but not the worst either, is another update of the local lows of #Bitcoin to $71100 and from there a rebound to the above-mentioned $76100-77100 zone, where we will have to "looking out" again: where to go next...
3️⃣ The most pessimistic, and maybe the most realistic scenario in times of total uncertainty, when it is not clear what the "rusty can" will wake up with in. ✊
All market participants will delay their "buying" decisions as much as possible until it becomes clear whether the Fed will cut the rate or not. The next FOMC meeting is on 07.05.25.
To understand what will happen to altcoins during this time, you need to at least monitor and analyze the #BTC.D and #USDT.D indicators, which we do daily in our reviews in...
✍️ It is your right, if not your duty, to follow this plan or make your own adjustments!)
And we will be happy to read and see your charts, with your forecasts for the near future in the comments below the idea.
Rising Wedge for #BTCUSDTWhat’s visible on the BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P chart:
📈 Rising Wedge:
➡️ This is a potentially bearish pattern for BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P , especially when it appears after a strong rally following a deep drop (which is exactly the case here).
➡️ The price has almost reached the upper boundary of the wedge and has already formed a second top (Top 2) — a signal of possible weakness.
🔵 Levels:
➡️ POC BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P — $82,490.8 has already been broken to the upside, indicating current market strength.
➡️ The price is approaching major resistance at $83,807.1 — momentum is already slowing down in this zone.
➡️ Support remains in the $80,449.7 – $78,412.7 area.
📊 Volume:
➡️ The rally was supported by high volume, but the most recent candles show declining volume as the price nears the top of the wedge.
➡️ This could indicate weakening buying pressure.
📉 Why it’s important to be cautious with long positions:
➡️ A rising wedge can act as a bull trap.
➡️ The price is near a critical resistance — even a small pullback could lead to a wedge breakdown.
➡️ After such a steep run (from 73K to almost 84K), the chance of profit-taking and a pullback is high.
➡️ Volume is declining — bullish momentum may be fading.
📢 Conclusion:
➡️ Opening a BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P long position right now is risky because:
- the wedge structure suggests a potential reversal to the downside;
- there’s no breakout above the previous high with confirmation;
- and volume does not support further upward movement.
❗️ It's better to watch how the price reacts to the wedge and BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P key levels — a long entry is only valid if the price breaks and holds above $83,800–84,000 with strong volume.
➡️ Until then, a neutral or cautiously bearish position is more appropriate.
BTCUSD: We haven't seen the real Bull yet.Bitcoin is under heavy volatility and yesterday's gains from the moment of the tariff pause announcement are almost all wiped out, which is reflected on its 1D technical outlook which turned bearish (RSI = 42.714, MACD = -1766.300, ADX = 26.356). Nonetheless, it is still holding its 1W MA50, the key support of this Bull Cycle, which might have not shown its strongest rally yet.
And the reason is a pure look at the 2015-2017 Bull Cycle, which is on a similar Channel Up and 3W RSI pattern. 11 weeks between the Channel's last two corrections, same level with the RSI bottoms. This indicates that this April could be similar to April 2017 that started the strongest rally of the Cycle.
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BTCUSD: Attacking the 2025 Resistance looking for huge breakout!Bitcoin turned neutral on both its 1D (RSI = 47.243, MACD = -1813.400, ADX = 31.557) and 1W (RSI = 45.530) technical outlooks following the 90-day tariff pause. Technically it is going after the LH top of the Falling Wedge from its ATH and the 1D MA50, which has been the main Resistance since February 4th 2025. There is a key Bullish Divergence on the 1D RSI too, being on HL as opposed to the LL of the Falling Wedge. A breakout above the Wedge typically sets a technical target on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which falls just under the ATH Resistance Zone. Be ready to go long if the breakout takes place (TP = 106,000).
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Bitcoin and 50 SMA on a WEEKLY chart - UPDATE Following on from the sharp drop in the beginning of the week, where PA dropped Below the 50 SMA ( RED) , PA has recovered and, as you can see, the candle Body is currently sitting ON the 50 SMA
We may need to remain in this area to bring back the Bullish Sentiment and then move higher.
It can be said that a bullish sentiment remains with Bitcoin as its did NOT crash as sharply as Stock Markets.
We are also now waiting on the MACD to fully enter the "Bounce Zone"
The Weeks candle on the histogram has returned to RED and so some caution is required here, while we wait.
It is the next few days that are crucial now. The "Tariff" dust us settling and countries are reacting to Trumps Tariff impositions.
My Gut feeling is VERY positive right now.
But that is just me,
Watch that candle on the 50 SMA like a Hawk. If we loose that again and the week closes below, THEN we need to think carefully
BTCUSD: Last chance to prove the Bull Cycle is still intact.Bitcoin remains bearish on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 40.819, MACD = 1234.500, ADX = 47.185) as it is on the 3rd red 1W candle in a row, which just hit the 1W MA50. First contact since Sep 2nd 2024. The weeky low is also almost at the HL bottom of the Bull Cycle's Channel Up. Needless to say, it has to hold in order for the bullish trend to continue. Practically this is the market's last chance to prove that the Bull Cycle is still intact. So far the -32% decline is no different that all prior inside the Channel Up but an Arc shaped bottom needs to start forming. If it does and that's the new bottom, expect $160,000 by September.
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It could be worse for Gold and Bitcoin, right? Apple alone has shed nearly $640 billion in market capitalisation over just three days. The S&P 500 has fallen more than 10% during the same stretch—its worst performance since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. In Asia, the selloff is even more severe, with Japan's Nikkei 225 down nearly 8%, South Korea’s Kospi 200 off almost 6%, and Taiwan equities falling close to 10%, triggering circuit breakers.
In comparison, Bitcoin and Gold, while under pressure, appear to be weathering the downturn with relatively less panic.
Bitcoin has declined around 10%—a notable drop, but not unusual by crypto standards. Trading near $76,000, it has returned to pre-election levels, breaching both short- and long-term support zones.
Gold is tracking its worst three-day performance in over four years. Although some positive forecasts are emerging. Deutsche Bank has revised its year-end gold price forecast upward to $3,350, citing rising recession risks and renewed safe-haven demand.
BTCUSD: Can this M2 supply signal trigger a massive rally?Bitcoin has neutralized the previously oversold levels on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 35.383, MACD = -1887.100, ADX = 31.814) as it is making a strong technical rebound on the 1W MA50. Today's analysis features the Global M2 supply, which is a leading indicator for Bitcoin. Both in July 2024 and November 2022 (the last two major bottoms for the market) when the M2 started to rise aggressively, Bitcoin declined and consolidated. It followed the bullish trend of the M2 with a rise of its own much later. This is similar to what the market has been experiencing since January 2025, when the M2 started rising but Bitcoin peaked on its ATH and started a decline that continues to this very date. If the pattern gets repeated then by end of April - start of May we are in for a strong Bitcoin recovery (if not earlier).
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Breaking: Bitcoin Loses $80,000 Support The price of Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) today saw a noteworthy downtick of 2.24% today making it down 7% since last week losing the $80k grip. This move came days after Donald Trump the recently elected president, on Wednesday, announced a minimum tariff rate of 10% and higher rates for 57 economies like China (34%), the European Union (20%), and Japan (24%). Fitch Ratings estimated that the effective tariff rate could hit 25% on average — the highest in more than 115 years.
The asset has tanked to the $76,000- $74,000 support point, placing CRYPTOCAP:BTC on the brink of a selling spree should CRYPTOCAP:BTC break below the $70k support, possible retracement should be around the $60- $50k support points.
Similarly, with CRYPTOCAP:BTC trading below key Moving Averages (MA), and the RSI at 35, CRYPTOCAP:BTC is gearing up for a reversal albeit the market is still volatile. If Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) should break the 1-month high resistant a possible uptick to $120k is feasible.
Bitcoin Price Live Data
The live Bitcoin price today is $77,615.23 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $78,391,741,615 USD. Bitcoin is down 5.64% in the last 24 hours. The current CoinMarketCap ranking is #1, with a live market cap of $1,540,502,278,162 USD. It has a circulating supply of 19,847,937 BTC coins and a max. supply of 21,000,000 BTC coins.
Is Bitcoin about to touch the 50 SMA and BOUNCE ?
Just a Quick Idea - But the 50 SMA has been a Good Lauch pad previously in 2024 - Is it about to do so again ?
We also have the MACD ( Weekly ) nearing Neutral, It also bounced off this level in 2024
We will know by tomorrow or Tuesday, Just what is happening
HANG ON
Revisit to a BITCOIN idea posted in Mid March- TAKE OFF SOON ?
I first posted this idea on 19 March ( link at end of this post )
The idea is that because MACD on the weekly is still Falling bearish and is likely to remain doing so till at least Neutral is reached. This would Mean that PA had to Range in a region to allow that Drop
Things Excellerated though and that date of Mid Late April has now been pushed forward and Now, MACD reaches Neutral around 7th April - NEXT WEEK
Once MACD Neutral is reached, PA could rise with strength behind it....... This moment is getting nearer.... and so the original idea that this would happen over months got condensed in to Weeks and we now have DAYS to wait.
So, on the main chart, we wait to see if PA crosses that overhead resistance ealy next week
HOWEVER, we need to watch this Close as MACD could Drop below Neutral.
This would likely take PA down to that 618 retrace Fib line originaly arrowed.
Another thing backing a possible push is the BITCOIN DOMINACE cotined strength.
This, to the cost of the ALTS, has contained to rise and as long as it remains above that trend line, people shold buy BITCOIN more than ALTS.
It is that simple
So, lets see what happens next week. This cold be VERY GOOD
BTCUSD: Conservative September Target $150kBitcoin remains neutral on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 46.307, MACD = 1999.100, ADX = 44.501), firmly supported on top of the 1W MA50. On this analysis you see the Channel Up that dictated the price action of the last three Cycles. Since December 2023 BTC has traded solely inside the 0.382 - 0.618 Fibonacci Zone, the median zone of the Channel Up. The Theory of pre-Halving / post-Halving symmetry implies that the time range from the Cycle Bottom to the Halving is almost the same as the time from the Halving to the Cycle Top. Since on the current Cycle, the time from the Bottom to the Halving has been 76 weeks, in theory the Top should be another 76 weeks from the Halving. We take the worst case estimate of 74 weeks like the 2017 Top. That's the end of September. And with regards to the target, a conservative estimate is just over the 0.5 Fib at 150k, like the highs of December 2024 and March 2024.
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