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Blowoff

S&P 500 reversal target - 6151Looking at a potential reversal target for the S&P 500 as we move beyond the election year into 2025. When scanning backwards on the previous high from late 2021, we can see price action clearly retested the speed fib on multiple weeks before a final rejection that induced the mini bear market which ended Oct of '22. Following that same speed fib forward into 2024, we can clearly see price is NOW, once again, retesting this magnetic fib zone. To figure out where this is all going, let's measure from the Jan '22 high into the Oct '22 low. Here, we get a 1.854 and 2.0 fib extension which intersects with the speed fib in question. Making some assumptions that price will AGAIN, range and retest multiple times before resolving, we can overlay "bars pattern" (from Jan '21 HIGH - Oct '22 LOW) and see when and how this could play out. Now, we wait and see how this movie ends! Note: Not trading or investment advice. ENTERTAINMENT ONLY!
OANDA:SPX500USD
by tantamount
3
SPY Candle Close Today Confirms Blowoff Top Underway!Traders, There is now an amalgamation of indicators on a plethora of charts confirming the thesis that our blowoff top is now underway. On this chart, you can see that our candle close today confirms the breakout and significant move upwards. At the same time, our dollar has broken a very significant support, the neckline of a large and ominous head and shoulders pattern (see link in related ideas). And finally, to be short, our VIX remains at 2-year lows. These three signals are huge and in agreement. The Blowoff top looks to be underway. Stay tuned if you'd like to know when we reach our targets. Best, Stew
AMEX:SPYLong
by stewdamus
Did we just repeat the June and September tops in $NDX $QQQ ???We have all seen the madness of the markets and crowds this week, WSB heroes are killing off hedgies with no remorse. The last time we saw similar price action to today in tech stocks was June, and more recently September. These instances followed a well defined sequence. ✅ A large selloff in 30Y and 10Y bonds, followed by a bottom and recovery ✅ Massive FAANMG blocks hitting the top signaling that the "froth" is being created so that big funds can exit at the top ✅ A capitulation zone where after trending steadily up a parabolic price finisher creates a top ✅ A topping candlestick pattern, such as a Hanging man ✅ A seasonality profile top heading into an FOMC statement Let's go over these criteria!
TVC:NDQ
by mortdiggiddy
5
WAVE 2 IS ENDING WAVE 3 UP OF 5 READY TO START 100% NET LONG NO WAVE STRUCTURE IS AS FOLLOWS THE RALLY THAT PEAKED IN SEPT 2018 WAS THE TOP OF 3 WAVE 2 DEC 2019 LOW WAVE 1 OF PEAKED FEB 10 WINDOW WAVE 2 OF BOTTOM RIGHT INTO MY TIME SPIRAL MARCH 18/21 WAVE 3 OF 5 ENDED INTO THE SPIRAL AUG 25 TO SEPT 4 FOCUS SEPT 4 WAVE 4 DUE OCT 28 PLUS OR MINUS 1 DAY WAVE 5 OF 5 OF5 IS DUE JAN 10 +OR - 3 DAYS SUPER CYCLE DEGREE 2021 IS DOWN INTO OCT 2021 WE ARE NOW READY FOR THE BLOWOFF WAVE . I AM LOOKING FOR A WAVE OF SHORT COVERING AND PANIC BUYING TO START
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by wavetimer
1
TSLA--The Insane Noob FOMO IndicatorOf all the securities in this momentum-driven market, Tesla holds the crown as the epitome stock for the wild-eyed Robinhood noob madly buying from "Fear Of Missing Out." So if we want to see when this momentum driven market is going to break, watching TSLA as an indicator is probably a good plan. Tesla has a great story, a colorful mad-genius CEO, and has actually been producing product and driving an industry. "Driving" an industry, get it? Ha. Tesla might one day be the Amazon or Apple of the car industry. Unfortunately for recent buyers of TSLA stock, the story of TSLA is so good the stock is already priced as if the company has achieved everything its crazed fans believe it will. To understand just how overvalued TSLA stock is, compare it to Toyota. Toyota is the largest auto manufacturer, makes over 10 million vehicles a year (according to Wikipedia), and has a stock market cap of $190 billion (according to Yahoo). In 2019 Tesla delivered around 370,000 cars, yet TSLA stock has a market cap of over $350 billion, nearly 2x larger than Toyota. But wait, it gets even more insane.... Not only is Tesla already significantly larger than all other auto makers, it's the 8th largest public company by market cap in the US! It's larger than everything in the US but the biggest of the big: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Facebook, Berkshire, and VISA! Tesla might continue to execute well and in 10 or 20 years eventually become the largest auto manufacturer (and might also be the leader in solar, batteries, auto-driving-AI, etc.). At that point it might deserve the market cap it holds today. However the reality today is Tesla is a tiny company producing very few cars that faces a number of risks and powerful competitors. Even if you believed TSLA will rapidly achieve all that is promised, where is the stock price going to go from the heights it's already at? Are we to believe it will soon overtake Google or something? The people buying TSLA stock at these prices are either clueless or charmed by the scent of Musk to the point of insanity. The buying has been extreme since the March covid lows.. a gain of 6 times(!) on a stock that was already overvalued. We've likely just seen a TSLA blow-off-top, similar to the blow-offs that happened to all the tech stocks in 2000. First you get a big run up to massively overvalued, then reality sets in and you get a rapid decline down. Someone should explain to the TSLA fans that even stocks like Amazon got ahead of themselves and blew up in 2000. On the chart I've highlighted a few technical double tops that to me make the chart look particularly ugly. IMO Tesla stock will not see new highs for over a decade. ONE FINAL CRITICAL BONUS FACT. In the 2000 tech crash, once the market turned and started to fall, brokerages cut back on customer margin. This forced over-leveraged stock holders who were already suffering from a falling market to have to sell to meet their new margin requirements. I know this because I was one of those over-leveraged traders in 2000 who was hit by the margin changes and was forced to sell. I've been waiting for just such a thing to happen again, and now it has started. The news today is Interactive Brokers has just announced they are raising margin requirements due to increased volatility associated with the election. I suspect we're about to see the selling accelerate. Buckle up. Disclaimer: I'm short TLSA.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by MystryBox
58
A speculative hedge against Soy.Now, generally, I think giga-shorting indices as they push all-time-highs every single day is a bad idea. Trends shall remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, the Federal Reserve is incessantly printing away your purchasing power which means there's more money to pump your stonks, and trends, namely the centuries-long bull trend, have been so permanent in the legacy markets that bears are either cocky and un-informed, or they've lost the majority of their market shirt already. Linked below as the related idea is my thesis on the upcoming economic recession which won't show up much on the index charts. However, sometimes speculative hedges are necessary and as we head into the holiday season, the consumerist mania increases as does the mental illness and the $soy. Utilizing some deep proprietary magic with the 1.618 fib as a confluence tool for surgical position leveling, I have marked all the levels and level clusters otherwise I've deemed important, giving us a nice picture of the market field ahead of us. Looking for an extreme blowoff top for the best possible risk/reward, earlier entries are also acceptable, but the stop leveling is very important. Sketched out with the pen tool is how I would see it breaking down into the levels below. A hedge is just a hedge, and betting big counter-trend is one of the riskiest things you can do. Stay safe out there, keep your people safe, and dodge the $soy.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by UnknownUnicorn719792
1
5.24 to 1 Risk/Reward Euphoric topping formation (short) + PutsBuy low sell high, but don't forget to sell high. Its expensive. This one should be more straight forward, its the final version of this but I may have to edit comments $10,000 of risk for $55,000 of reward. The put options intended for this trade are spread between the strike prices below 260 but we will have more details to follow. I have been waiting to publish this as it would seem too dangerous to short or buy put options in a stock that trades in 4 to 5 point ranges and consistently raises the ceiling nearly every day leading up to and past earnings. The average true range of this stock has been way out of proportion and even though the news has been better than expected it technically looks like one of its prior blow-off tops. There may not be the right day for this currently, but as of Thursday we might get confirmation of the early signs of a turn-around - that is a bearish reversal signal that is confirmed. Here is the logic, for a 4-week put option trade it would make sense to get long puts and scatter them through different strike prices from 260 to 240 and hold them into December and January. We declared this trade at 1000 shares, so that we would first preserve capital by risking at most $10,000 and possibly receive a reward of $55,000. There are no references for past resistance or overhead supply, but we'll take it at 275 being the last possible price point at which someone would be willing to buy this. The hardest thing is calling the top or calling the bottom, hopefully our patience has paid off and these will be the juiciest puts of maybe even a decade.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by DamianRichardson
Bitcoin in for a long awaited correction -40% in a month?Hello dear followers, Bitcoin is getting the blow off top everyone has been waiting for. If this continues and follows the same proportions as in the last bull market, we can expect a 40% drop. Also the price usually comes down to the 20 week MA. I have extrapolated this moving average in the chart. I expect a ABC correction, first down to the bottom of the upwards channel, then up to make a right shoulder and then completing the ABC and for the ‘Head and shoulders fans’ the possible head and shoulders pattern. This is my own hypothesis and not trading advice. What do you guys think? PS: You can also take a look at my SOLVEBTC idea and possibly leave a like Trade safe!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Cornevdberg
2
Time to discuss some real shitI see a lot of people comparing this area to the 20k top in 2017. During this consolidation period, sentiment has ranged from extremely bullish to extremely bearish with only a small few that I have witnessed, publicly acknowledge the macro consolidation length and what it may mean. In 2017, we spent 2 weeks grinding the top of the range before plummeting to a 64% drop from peak *63 days* after we topped. In 2019, we similarly spent 2 weeks grinding the top of the range but have spent the same exact amount of time ranging 35% up and down as it took the the price to drop 64% in 2017. There are plenty of other marked differences as well, such as the halving timing, in 2017 the halving had already occurred and people were chasing a fundamental event that was already priced in. Additionally, alt coins are not booming like they were in 2017, there are no speculatively fervent bubbles at risk of the needle prick. People who watched the space balloon in 2017 can't process the fact that capital moves cyclically, like in all spaces. Depending on the length of the underlying cycle things can happen fast or slow, regular or irregularly, but eventually a cycle will be found. I think that a cycle has been found in crypto. Bitcoin leads the market and peaks near 90% dominance before capital has the incentive to move into altcoins. I don't think we've reached this part of the cycle whatsoever. This usually comes after Bitcoin makes new all time highs. 70 days of 30-45% ranging, with plenty of things like the fear and greed index being extremely low and the fear of recession among retail investors with very little experience tells me that people have risked off but will not shy away from re entering this market as risk-on investors as soon as the prices threatens new highs once more. There is still plenty of money to be invested into Bitcoin. To some this may seem like a moonboi rant of sorts, but I feel the community is far too bearish at this point in time. We have risen in a manner which implies Bitcoin has entered an entirely new cycle. Nothing on the macro level has really confirmed the suspicion of those who anticipate a drop to 6000, 7000, 8000. There are a record number of people who missed the boat in this cycle, and I believe it shows in sentiment. The people who didn't miss the lows of the cycle and are exposed safely, or have profited and since rebought and sold many times, will not shy away from Bitcoin. The USD is currently undergoing a massive weakening due to its monetary policy and fiat currencies around the world are plunging because of this as well. There is high levels of correlation between all of the paper money in the world and very little collateral behind any of it. When confidence is high, things are fine, but in times of uncertainty people look away from traditional safe havens and find alternatives. Bitcoin is a unique asset because it is versatile. It can be added to the portfolio as a hedge to particular things, even gold. But it is , unlike gold, also able to be considered a risk-on asset and this means that it has the potential to attract many types of investors. The date is August 30, 2019. The chart to me, shows a massive consolidation that is preceded by a 300%+ rise. Very rarely in history of Bitcoin does it start a cycle of growth and not finish it in a parabolic blow off. If this was that parabolic blow off, I reckon we would have been -64% by now. What were you doing on August 30? Were you bearish or bullish?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by WizardBull
1
$BTC to $60k EOY with blowoff top similar to 2017?Hi everyone, Seeing the powerful parabolic rise of this year, I decided to look at 2017 and try to extrapolate an idea. It's a wild idea, I get it, but it's nice to see for some perspective of how powerful this year's parabolic rise "could" be and how big of a crash we could expect if it does actually play out. AB= April to Sept 2017 CD= Sept to Feb 2017 AB = CD in 2017 puts the target at $6.7k, which is the 78.6% fib retracement from ATH (blue line). That was Bitcoin's realistic target for EOY. However, Bitcoin being very parabolic in Q4 2017, it decides to go for a moon shot another 184% to the upside, prior to quickly going back down to consolidate upon its intended target of $6.7-6.8k (the 78.6% fib!) Could the same AB = CD repeat for this year, given the similar powerful 2017ish parabolic rise we're seeing? AB = Jan - June 2019 CD = June - Dec 2019 If so, we'll see Bitcoin reach just shy of $60,000 EOY, than plunge back down to the 78.6% fib at around $20.5k! This means that Bitcoin's previous ATH will actually become a strong support for the continued 2-3 year bull rally. We could also note that by that time, the NVT indicator will probably be flashing a big sell signal, justifying the 60-65% quick plunge from the $60k blowoff top. Hope you enjoyed! Cheers, Leb Crypto
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Leb_Crypto