BTC Accumulation Phase Testing out a new indicator I found, it's interesting that every time BTC has fallen below the top band, it has stayed in between both bands and moved sideways until breaking out to the upside. At this moment, BTC broken below the top band and even touched the bottom band as support, not sure if we have reached the bottom yet but based on past circumstances and if BTC doesn't break below the bottom band I could say we could be moving sideways until late November of this year.
Breadth Indicators
$BTC OBV I have NOT changed anything to the chart - OBV holding$BTC OBV I have NOT changed anything to the chart - OBV holding
Right now the price is going down very slowly (no panic selling, no mega volume) and the OBV is holding, the RSI is super oversold.
This is max pain, it means it is max opportunity. I am not saying to sell your house to buy bitcoin now, I am saying the probability to have good entries for the next few weeks, is high.
I think we will play in this area until $20k. Then, run it back turbo. OBV is holding and I am happy.
$BTC Weekly OBV - Expecting to stay at this mid line a while Until we get big volume, I think we will stay at this trendline. We could imagine a scenario where BTC pumps to retest the upper trendline. If it can NOT pass through, it will be a confirmation of a downturn and a great short entry. This is when things could get nasty.
Extreme market breadth saying a major bounce is comingIn this video, I've shown a means of measuring the current breadth in the market. It's at extreme lows which have historically marked major bottoms for the market.
TAKEAWAY
Combining this with my cycle analysis, I think a rally is coming over the next 6 weeks
Officer Omicron and Insurgent Inflation Team Up To Fight the FedScene 1
Darth Powell summons the legends of the past to formulate the plan to fight the Omicron and Inflation insurgence.
Brigadier Bernanke, General Greenspan and Veteran Volcker report for duty.
“We are at an event horizon, what should we do?” declares Powell.
“Pretend it isn’t happening”, says Greenspan
“Bailout everything, print more money,” says Bernanke
“I killed inflation forever, this cannot be happening,” says Volcker
Powell rises from his throne and addresses the senate.
"There is nothing to see here. We will continue as normal, and start to cool off our insurgent inflation with the ice bath of interest rates, and the tepid taste of tapering."
In the background the sound of screaming.
Cut Scene 1.
Scene 2.
The morning after a sweet night of passion, Omicron and Inflation wake up with a hangover and get to work on terrorizing the economy. Officer Omicron has already infected 30% of the planet and inflation is rampant.
Cut Scene 2.
Well, that was exciting, but if the global economy was a star wars movie, it would be something like this.
A big gap down today, and the short-term outlook is definitely to the downside, with limited room for stimulus, and unlimited room for inflation, virus infections, and lockdowns.
Short-term RSI – Nasty
KST – Nasty
AD Ratio - ouch
Choose Your Ending
Scene 3.
After two hard years the people of Naboo (earth) are battered yet determined to summon the force to fight whatever stands in their way. It will be tough, but we will beat nature and fight to live another day. 15% to 20% drop in equities, a collapse in crypto, followed by a green revolution where we live in ESG harmony.
Scene 4.
Mother natures death star finally scourges us to hell causing the next great depression, which takes an entire generation to recover from. (Like the 2000 dotcom bust 8-year recovery)
Scene 5.
Darth Powell farts, and the world goes on as normal 😊
Cast your vote now.
Scene 3, 4, or 5.
If you like, then hit like.
Barry
1hr to go. Bullish OBV on the 4H for $BTC?These bullish divs in the 4H BTC chart often play out quite well. I'm not excited that we are below the SuperTrend on that timeframe, but the OBV div is set to print in the next 50 minutes. Keep your eyes peeled. Elliot Wave has fully played out as well on multiple time frames.
Let's see how it goes. Market feels super heavy except for NEAR and AVAX is holding onto it's POC at around $85. $*7 for AVAx is quite a critical point .
REMINDER: It's Friday, a weekend.
We have had historically bad dumps on Friday nights when everyone is AFK. Keep those stops tight.
Stay safe and rich out there.
Ketchup Market elken(B)readthHey Traders,
Got a little behind in posting some weekly look-backs and wanted to catch-up to this current week. I consolidated the "Weekly RSI Divergence" and the "elken(B)readth" charts into one.
We will be looking back at the week closes using my "blocker" rectangle; the obvious black-out on the right side of the chart. I will post from the start of the year to now (which is ~three weeks from quarter end).
Flour:
Blue is 20 Daily Moving Average
Red is 50 DMA
Yellow 100 DMA
Teal 200 DMA
Crust:
The $SPX is shown in white. We will be focusing on the RSI divergences compared to the white line. The EMA's are there for reference.
Yeast:
Look for RSI divergence on the fast moving (B)readth BLUE line. This can indicate an upcoming change in market direction (and in this market it just might mean FLAT).
Please bear with me as I will try and post the rest of the weeks in update format to this idea to get us all caught up.
$NEAR, easy invalidation on an asset with relative strengthYour job as a trader is to find assets with RELATIVE STRENGTH to this downward trend (if you're long).
$NEAR fits that description, for a simple reason: It's at support on the OBV, right above the daily MA200 and the MA200 is pointing up.
This means that not only is the asset still bullish, it also has a significant edge in your favor: EASY INVALIDATION OF A CLOSE BELOW THE MA200.
Thought to find these opportunities in this market. This is a gift. Enjoy!
Using the Keltner and Gaussian Channels to prepare for another NTLDR:
If we see the NASDAQ enter the Gaussian Channel or NDX/SPX enters the Gaussian Channel it is a time to start looking for long term investments. If you see something you like (and maybe that includes giving you dividends) you would buy the base of the keltner channel.
Analysis
I think Have done a good job of putting the information on the main chart in an easy to understand way. One thing I have tinkered on in the past but am not going to detail in this post is how I often see a lot of curious price action occur within important wicks or candle bodies. You cannot always guarantee what kind of price action that you will get in one of these wicks. After all, they could be continuation or reversal. Either way, if you are doing this analysis on a monthly chart or something similar you might be looking for a pattern to develop on that time frame. And if you are on a monthly chart looking for at monthly candle sticks to make a pattern that can take years to develop. Another thing I am not digging into is other indicators looking for bearish divergence. They are there, but I am kinda time bound right now.
A look at the weekly chart of NQ1!/SPXUSD shows after price went above the last monthly wick of NDX/SPX that price formed a double top and price is right at the valley low. Sure, they may be a bounce, for some odd reason, but I am not betting on it. I use the NASDAQ Futures versus SPXUSD because that gets me the most time based data but the inclusion of SPXUSD prohibits me from using any volume analysis, but that is fine for some pure charting technical analysis. I use the fib tar getting on that is pretty solid and while price may zigzag down on NDX/SPX the target shows that NDX is going to take a slagging compared to SPX. If you are familiar with your US indices, then you know generally that NDX is going to take the biggest hit, then SPX, then DJI.
If this is similar to the dot Com bubble pop then Gold should be looking pretty good. And after Gold looks good, silver and the other precious metals should get a run. Here is a look at NDX and Gold. We might be in a decades long bull run of Gold against NDX.
A look at GoldFutures/NDX seems to have a lot of bullishness in the monthly chart with your classic bullish divergence on the monthly.
Gold versus Ethereum also looks very bullish divergence on the MACD and the Stoch picking up.
What I am doing (for now)
My crypto account is either in Tether, PAXG, or taking shorts. My normie employer restrictive retiremnet fund is poised for interest rates to rise. My own trading account is building a portfolio around precious metals and miners.
MicroStrategy testing FibonacciWe can see a high correlation between the company and BTC since the pandemic.
Looking at the monthly chart, the fact is that the price is now in an important Fibonacci region at 50%.
On the 1-hour chart, on the ADX indicator, we can see a decrease in the selling force (red arrows), and an increase in the buying force (green arrows),
forming a kind of symmetrical triangle, signaling a temporary indefiniteness.
I'm waiting in the cabin to see what happens.
Incision with the indexes Market hanging on by a thread.
- After testing overnight lows, we had a reversal of market internals (UVOL / DVOL, TICKS, Breadth) and rocketed higher closing the day in the highs.
- PCC gave a buy signal mid day, VIX Ratio almost gave a buy signal.
- My take away is we should bounce here, but we need to look for a failure near the daily SMAs (20, 50, 100, 200).
- Downside target if we fail is 444 on SPY.
- Earnings next week + FOMC the week after should accelerate RV. Stay alert.