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Break-out

EURUSD Trying For Break-Out Counter-Rally HereEURUSD Trying For Break-Out Counter-Rally now Using DXY as the confirming signal (please see DXY updates) we've been short EURUSD for some time now, looking for a test of 94.20 on DXY as the likely medium term top for Dollar strength across the pairs. That came yesterday (too busy shorting Bitcoin to notice, sorry for that). But EUR didn't quite make it to the next downside target at 1.1665 here, bouncing away 11 pips higher than really expected, though it did bounce precisely off the lower parallel of the little pattern EUR is now trapped within. Yesterday was mostly bear closing by look of the chart. Today it's more bull buying with a small impulse candle arriving as London opened after an aimless overnight session in far East. It can rally to 1.1756 and then will probably need impetus and follow through from New York to push any higher still. Only once it can get above here should it push back up to the 1.1823 level, presnting a potential long opportunity if we see it develop later. But until we see that evidence present itself EUR is becoming vulnerable to another sell off, though this time it should only come back to the 1.1721 line to begin with and will need US selling to drive it lower still towards the 1.1679-1.1665 range. With the Dollar expected to enter an extended period of consolidation under 94.2 on DXY it's no longer appropriate to be looking for big EUR weakness in the nearterm. However, looking a little further out in time, DXY is expected to rally a further 1% or so from 94.2 to 95.15 and EUR to fall back to 1.1558 eventually before any real change in overall trend is likely on this pair. This update was posted shortly after the DXY companion forecast this morning. It never loaded correctly. Very annoying. Anyway, what was expected above is happening pretty much as it should so far - EUR is about to break higher as DXY unravels under the dynamic from the highs a while longer.
by sumastardon
4
DJIA: Dow Jones: Breakout to Upside Likely Soon DJIA Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures The Dow has had a torrid time for 3 months now, falling 14% from the highs and bouncing three times directly off the longer term parallel underpinning the rally - and which had acted as major resistance right up to the point when the new President/Paradigm took office. Over those 3 months of wild gyration and whipsaw the Dow has formed a neat triangle and is now now re-testing the the falling dynamic which forms the last big resistance line to the upside. It's had 3 attempts so far to break this line and now we're looking at a 4th. It can do this up to 4 times but on the 5th at latest should break higher. Can either follow the break when it arrives and hope the rest of the world follows it too, in which case volumes will rise and it will begin to power upwards (stops under the line) or wait for a potential retest of the dynamic once broken to the upside - which not come, depending on volumes at that point. Once broken the first resistance line lies at 24793-24800 and it may come back from there towards the dynamic one last time before surging higher again - this will most likely be the last chance to get long at lower levels if we see it a little further out in time. Otherwise, if the Dow does come off from the dynamic for a 4th and likely last time, look to buy around 23869 levels if the chance presents itself. The Global Dow chart (next update) should help to provide confirmation of the break when it comes.
OSE:DJIA1!Long
by sumastardon
2
Cardano analysis: 30% profit target.Very strong support zone, doubt it'll crash through. Strong resistance at 5900. However this was tested several times now, so I expect it to break this time. I'm setting the target at the resistance after the 5900 resistance. Remember to set your stoplosses when you enter: markets can sometimes be irrational. If I made you money, please consider buying me a beer to make my day: LTC: LfbKuDHZaDTRUV9pXJuWCUcG14XLrGtBcs ADA: DdzFFzCqrhsfoyxqADKYK7mMAMpoMUqjuNeN39aJZx6v2ZHnBxuC79p8QJWJ713mAmRHxF9hS87YKMkD4JLF1rdxLU7ugzRtViBETfWa Feel free to ask me questions or to ask me to perform my analysis on a coin of your choice. Happy trading!
ALong
by Woolhead
1
DASHUSD Next Buy Points for break outDASHUSD DashDollar We got stopped out of the long from 305 at 599 which was cruel considering it bottomed at 596. Just bad stop management - should have lowered it to cover the lower parallel but didn't pay enough attention in truth, so busy with those other 3 favorite girlfriends to pay this enough time. Bad. And got punished for that lapse. Back on the trail: the continuation pattern is clearer now. There are two posible entry points here: 1. On a break of the upper parallel, confirmed by a push above the blue line above it at 638, looking to buy on the first minor pull-back with stops kept under the parallel. 2. But Dash is now in a vulnerable spot, trying to break above the old dynamic support line from the lows which is now acting as resistance...If this continues and Dash falls away from the old dynamic stopping it now there is a good chance it will fall back to 606-595 range again. If so look to buy here with stops below 590/adjusted to below the lower parallel, unlike the mistake made above, with a little luck. But if Dash can break above this old dynamic and then the resistance immediately above it, it would be a real show of strength. Follow it as per 1st option.
BITTREX:DASHUSD
by sumastardon
EURJPY Rising Wedge Break-out Performance I have been monitoring the formation of a rising wedge on the EURJPY pair. Formation performance has been estimated at around 260pips and I will be entering a short pending order as soon as I receive confirmation for the break-out. I can also see the confirmation of a double top formation (or a 2618 play) in the making should the price move further South which strengthen our confidence on the idea. It is a long move so I am not expecting to get there at one go. A retrace is also expected to test the broken support, so place your order according to your trading style since scalping opportunities may occur. let's wait it out. All feedback and comments are highly appreciated.
Short
by Telson
2
EURUSD Box Break-out Performmance, Long-Term Price SpeculationLooking over the Weekly chart for the EURUSD pair we can identify an attempted break-out of the rectangular formation, expecting a continuation of the downtrend dating back to May 2014. The above is also supported from a shooting star on May 2016 (to my eyes at least), clearly indicating a short move, and we have been looking at the price tag going South since then. Check out the performance possible long-term profits with a previous structure support coming on low 0.99000's levels. We would also expect a retracement move to retest the broken support but trust to become resistance in due time. All feedback is highly appreciated.
Short
by Telson
2
EURUSD Falling Wedge Formation Break-out Performance Based on our previous long-term analysis (please see links below), our general feeling regarding the EURUSD pair is going short. But, as we mentioned on the original idea, we would expect the price to retrace and retest the previous structure support that was broken a few days back on the 1.05700's region. We believe that this falling wedge formation may indicate the possible retrace for some extra pips. Please check previous structure for clues on supports and resistances and set TP and SL according to your trading style. The RSI indicator shows oversold conditions, still, personally I would look out for further confirmation prior to entering a long order. The above if a speculative theory that also suits our previous analysis... how convenient :) Let's see if this works out. All feedback and comments are highly appreciated.
Long
by Telson
2
GBPCAD Break-out Performance Speculation (Long-Term) - Part IIAs described in the original idea, we still believe on the long move of the price due to the formation of the falling wedge. The bottom support has moved short a few pips but the formation is still valid (to my eye). Please monitor to avoid a false break move, be wise to wait and confirm the move using other means, timeframe and/or indicators. The stop losses should be fair, under the previous structure support at the 1.63900 region while take profits are set according to expected performance and previous structure resistances. Adjust to fit your trading style. All feedback is appreciated.
Long
by Telson
EURJPY Break-out Performanced (Part II - Continuation)Breaking down the long-term short of EURJPY as described in the " EURJPY going short " idea (see below) as well as the initial break-out performance, we have come to witness a possible continuation in a similar fashion. Note that the long-term trendline forming the top wedge (based at 121.977) is still strong for a new-forming, even-bigger wedge, with the 120.806 price tag being the new base, which is the opening price on BRExit offering first "serious" structure support. The above is also supported by market conditions on Daily charts that show real lack of buying power (seriously overbought) by means of RSI/Stochastic. Conveniently enough :D the above speculation will conclude 1st performance target as described on the " EURJPY Break-out Performance " idea (see below) that was nearly missed at first go. There will be some resistance from EUR, we are in for a bumpy SHORT ride (scalping opportunities?) but, for the time being, I cannot foresee anything that may reverse back to LONG (trend not just a retrace). I would expect a solid retrace (min. 118.000) of that straight bull trend of the past few weeks, over the next few weeks before it shoots back to the stars. Lets wait it out... Since sometimes we all live in our small fantasy bubbles so, all feedback is appreciated.
Short
by Telson
1
APPLE: POST EARNINGS - 1.42EPS & $42.4BN BEAT - UP 8% @ 103.5 PMApple beat expectations marginally at 42.4bn and 1.42EPS. Apple reported not outstanding results, but nonetheless, the earnings call from Tim Cook et al. gave Apple the momentum to break the 101 resistance level and we closed post market up at the last low 100 resistance level at 103.5 (filled the low 100's resistance gap in). Today the market will go either way - 1) With more liquidity backing the move break-out to the 104's - from here I would advise buying with a target of 110-112. - Signs of this move would be a bullish pre-market e.g. 104-5; I would advise buying this level ASAP OR risk-averse traders could wait and see if we get a pullback into the 103.8 resistance level at some point after the rally as a recovery leg of the move higher which would be almost inevitable 2) and my preferred prediction is that more liquidity brings us back down to at least the previous resistance level at 101 before then moving higher in the next few days to break-out the 104 and trade towards 110, as IMO 103.4 is high relative to the results - yes they just beat estimates but IMO the estimates were very low and i infact expected more. Nonetheless, given apples depression and even at 110 trading 20% down I can easily see this becoming a recovery rally to the 112 level before reversing (especially as the Nasdaq continues to make new 12m highs on its way to ATH). BOJ on friday is something to watch out for though - a miss will likely turn risk markets sour and take the carpet from under apples feet say if it was at 107. - Signs of this will obviously be a quiet pre-market or a bearish pre-market e.g. trading at 103 flat, then when market opens we see a cascade of old TPs move us to the 101 level where supply/ demand stabilises. Or simply in pre-market we've already moved to 101 and are ticking along. IMO if this is the case it is best to see if we can get a 102/104(breakout) before buying as at 101 we run the risk of breaking lower (as we have seen apple break lower from 101 several times). 3) Also it is possible that the market sees apple as expensive at 103/4 so sells off straight through the 101 resistance say to low 99/100's - this imo is a bearish setup and i dont think Apple will plan on having any upside momentum going forward e.g. no 104 breakout if today in pre/ normal market we see 100 or less. - Signs of this will obviously be a sell-off from the 103.5 post market to the 100 level in pre/normal market. Here I have no interest in buying as i expect apple to move back into the 90's with time - also you have to remember even a sell-off to the 100s shows apple up 4% as it closed at $96 yesterday. Personal Note: I have long been an apple bull so i like the topside possibilities but equally Apple has struggled of late to hold onto gains/ rally. that said, the time to rally would be now (on target earnings/ bull market/ upbeat earnings call/ broken initial resistance levels) - it would have been nice to see apple trade through the final level at 104 which is the last highly restrictive technical level left, but the fact it held means we have to be vigilant - read the above and make smart decisions.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
5