Brexitshort — Trading Ideas on TradingView

GBPAUD SHORT at multi-month channel resistance and 50% fib Favorable risk-reward short during last minute Brexit deal chaos. Stops just above 50% fib retracement (from Aug '15-Oct '16). Price is at 1.9000 Technical Analysis: - Psychological level 1.9000 - Multi-month channel resistance (since Mar '18) - Just under 50% fib retracement at 1.9080 (from Aug '15-Oct '16). - MACD, RSI showing extremely overbought signals (on daily, 4hr, 1hr) Fundamental Analysis: Risks: Last minute Brexit deal may drive price above 1.9100. However, even if there is a deal, it is unlikely that it will pass parliament emergency sitting on Saturday. From there, either extension (more-likely, could be GBP positive or negative) or no-deal (less-likely and extremely bearish GBP). TP: 1.7650 (+1250 pips) SL: 1.9100 (-100 pips)

Brexit Would Kill UK Economy and Brexit Is Almost Here Havn't made a comment on GBPUSD in a bit mainly since just needed to sit back and see what the developments were. As expected, nothing new has happened while the odds of a no deal Brexit on April 12th are now noticeably higher according to the betting markets. The pound hasn't reflected this reality yet mainly because a deal is priced in. Dramatic volatility will come if there's a no deal. UK stock market would be significantly hit as well. Also the UK will probably go into technical recession in Q3 2019. Bad news for all except those on the right side this trade. From the BBC, "Prime Minister Theresa May said there was now a clear choice between Britain exiting the European Union with a deal or not leaving at all as she tries to find a compromise with the opposition Labour Party." May is so desperate for support on her deal she's gone to Labour which may bring her some votes on the left side of the aisle, but then will probably lose a few more in her own party given the likely promises she will have to make for Corbyn. Meanwhile, EU-based corporations are making plans in case a hard Brexit occurs. All around, we are now in very dangerous territory for an accidental crash out. However, I am still neutral given the fact that there could be a last minute extension even though the French may block this. Again, too volatile for me to trade.

Brexit Just Won’t Go Away; For the Pound, That’s a Good Thing Brexit. Its kind of like a bad tattoo in that it never goes away, yet was almost immediately regrettable. Unfortunately that continues to be the case this week with Prime Minister May meeting with opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn to etch out a deal for the House of Commons to pass her bill which has already been rejected three times. Much ink has been spilled and many black pixels dedicated to the analysis of Brexit and forecast of where things are headed. In spite of this, we know just as much about where we will be on April 12th as we did when the deadline was first announced. Moreover, the price of the pound to the US dollar is now nearly completely divorced from fundamentals and simply trading on the notion that a no deal Brexit will be avoided. But is this the case? And if so, to what degree is a deal priced in? One of the only non-political comments an observer could make on the cable chart to look for those former levels of resistance as support. 1.19 is about the lowest level of support while 1.26 to 1.27 could also be interesting support levels if the price moves down in the aftermath of a Brexit deal as a no deal Brexit would probably test the former levels seen in 2016 and 2017: Vote for the Brexit that promises least; It will be the least disappointing Will the pound break through previous levels of resistance and form them as support, or will it crash 20 percent like the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit referendum? Hard to say at this point as the website oddschecker.com asserts the chances have increased that UK opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn will become the next UK PM. Its shortened to 5-1 at many of the bookies, roughly equal to former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, the Environment Secretary. They are now the expected favorites to replace May after Dominic Raab, a former Brexit Secretary who resigned from the government late last year and is now quoted at around 9-1 and Jeremy Hunt, the current Foreign Secretary, whose odds have drifted out to around 10-1. While the chances of Corbyn becoming Prime Minister continues to go up, it is still yet to be determined if there will be a general election and if the Conservatives can get May to resign as leader as she had promised. The question remains though when any of these potential outcomes would come to fruition, although speculation abounds that it would have to be after an extension to the April 12th deadline. Although the pound has been highly volatile since the British voted to exit the EU in June 2016, it is important to keep in mind that the pair reached a low of 1.18 in October which has since risen to above 1.31.

Brexit Commands Attention of GBPUSD GBPUSD will probably be headed sideways until the April 12th deadline after which if there is a no deal (unlikely) then the price will crash through the floor. But if there is an extension longer than a few weeks, I think we can expected to see price action gravitate towards the monthly resistance downward trend.

EURUSD Will Be Hit By Brexit Next week will give traders a better idea of just how bad and just how quickly we'll get to a no deal Brexit which is looking increasingly likely as days progress. Cleraly, euro long is an overcrowded trade with moving averages showing a downward trend. Political risk from Brexit will obviously weigh next week as well. More words on why Brexit will hit markets next week here: www.linkedin.com and more charts on currency forecasts and event risk here: anthonylaurence.wordpress.com

Chances of Accidental No Deal Brexit Increased Significantly Traders are now aware of the April 12th deadline and that it will be extended into May if Parliament passes Prime Minister May's deal she made with the EU earlier in the month. However, the last deal she presented to Parliament lost by a staggering 150 votes. That's quite a bit to make up in 20 days. And what traders are probably not pricing in yet is the possibility of a no deal Brexit which the chances of over the past 24 hours just dramatically increased. Chances of accidental no deal Brexit were already elevated before Tusk's ultimatum. Overall, I'm now quite negative on every pound pair. Technicals at the weekly view also suggest GBPUSD is a bit overpriced. Here's more words and charts on the topic if you're interested: anthonylaurence.wordpress.com

Chances of a No Deal Brexit Just Increased Dramatically Traders are now aware of the April 12th deadline and that it will be extended into May if Parliament passes Prime Minister May's deal she made with the EU earlier in the month. However, the last deal she presented to Parliament lost by a staggering 150 votes. That's quite a bit to make up in 20 days. And what traders are probably not pricing in yet is the possibility of a no deal Brexit which the chances of over the past 24 hours just dramatically increased. Chances of accidental no deal Brexit were already elevated before Tusk's ultimatum. Overall, I'm now quite negative on every pound pair. Technicals at the weekly view also suggest GBPUSD is a bit overpriced. Here's more words and charts on the topic if you're interested: anthonylaurence.wordpress.com

Sterling Capitulation? ... a live example of the offside trap ...we have a very interesting idea on the menu today for everyone. This is a very advanced environment and would recommend only those who are experienced to trade this swing position. => We are approaching steel resistance once more and it is time to get active on the sell-side in the UK. We have fresh headlines this morning from the political side attempting to continue selling the dream of a second referendum and attempt to remove no-deal from the equation. => Unfortunately for those in the UK this is nothing but political fairy-dust and we are set for a massacre ceteris paribus. Markets are positioned on the wrong side and we will need to see a meaningful correction here as reality kicks in and models begin pricing in a no-deal exit once more. => We are starting to build a position on the sell-side here, it requires nerves of steel and patience as the noise levels from the mainstream media are guaranteed to be extreme. => From a technical perspective, after the neutral session yesterday we saw Asia rally clearing the 200MA and trend line from September, this has 'opened' the door for a cluster of stops at 1.317 which is in the crosshairs. So how are we going to trade this ? => Well we are wanting to trade the exhaustion here when bulls start getting ahead of themselves and like football, begin to trap them offside . We see signs of a fresh top starting to form already and expect the stage to be set over the weekend via the political heads from the UK. => Support moves to 1.309 and 1.301, below here unlocks 1.294 and 1.288. Removal of this will trigger the capitulation which is what we are trying to trade here and unlock 1.23. Best of luck to all those who are trying to position for Brexit or who are already in this live.