TOTAL Q3 As Q2 closes, Q3 begins...
The 2nd quarter of 2025 made up for a lot of the losses of Q1 peaking at $3.5T in the middle of the quarter. Since the peak a steady downtrend channel has formed and continues to be the case going into Q3.
What can we expect to see in the next 3 months in the crypto market? For me there are two different scenarios that are bullish, and one that is bearish IMO:
Bullish scenario 1 - The most likely scenario I think is a breakout above the downtrend channel and a move towards the range top. My reasoning for this comes from what we know about the driving forces in the market. Just last week BTC ETFs had a $2.2B net inflow, MSTR bought another 4,980BTC for $531.9m, various ETFs on the way for other majors such as SOL. Crucially the M2 money supply is at a record ATH. What that means is huge demand and the means to purchase with a what feels like a deadline closing in.
Bullish scenario 2 - We see a trend continuation until the range midpoint which has provided support before. It would coincide with the bottom of the trend channel and therefor I believe would provide a good launchpad for long positions.
Bearish scenario - For me this is the least likely situation but one that must be prepared for, a loss of the range midpoint would be a major setback, one that would mean a potential revisit of the range low in a symmetrical move down mirroring Q2s move up. The reason I believe this is the least likely is there is just too much in favor of risk on assets like crypto currently, I've mentioned the fuel that is the M2 money supply piling up to be deployed. A US interest rate cut all but confirmed for September and the institutional race for acquiring these assets before it is too late.
In conclusion just keeping it simple on the chart, a breakout above the trend channel is a great long opportunity to target the highs.
If BTC continues the grind down a great place for it to turn bullish is the range midpoint as has happened previously.
In the event BTC loses the midpoint a retest of the weekly low would make sense to me.
BTC-D
BTCUSDT – Bullish Momentum MaintainedBitcoin is maintaining a solid bullish structure after breaking out of its recent accumulation zone and filling the FVG gap around $110,400. On the H4 chart, BTCUSDT has just completed a successful retest near the dynamic support zone and is now aiming for the potential resistance at $112,949 – where it intersects with a long-term trendline. A breakout above this level could signal the start of a new expansion phase.
Major news from yesterday regarding new capital inflows into several approved spot Bitcoin ETFs, combined with rising expectations of a Fed rate cut later in Q3, are fueling strong buying momentum. This rally could gain even more strength if crypto markets continue to attract liquidity.
Mastering the Bollinger Bands- How to use it in trading?What is the Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands is a popular technical analysis tool developed by John Bollinger in the 1980s. It is designed to measure market volatility and provide signals for potential price reversals or trend continuations. The Bollinger Bands consist of three lines: a simple moving average in the middle, usually calculated over 20 periods, and two outer bands that are placed a set number of standard deviations above and below the moving average. These outer bands automatically adjust to market conditions, expanding and contracting based on price volatility. The indicator is widely used by traders to understand the relative highs and lows of a financial instrument in relation to recent price action.
What will be discussed?
- How does it work with the lower band and upper band?
- What does the narrowing mean?
- What does the widening mean?
- How to trade with the Bollingers Bands?
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How does it work with the lower band and upper band?
The upper band and the lower band serve as dynamic levels of resistance and support. When the price of an asset touches or exceeds the upper band, it may be considered overbought, suggesting that a reversal or pullback could be near. Conversely, when the price approaches or breaks below the lower band, the asset may be viewed as oversold, indicating a potential rebound. These bands do not generate definitive buy or sell signals on their own but instead help traders assess market conditions. The interaction of price with the upper and lower bands often provides visual cues about the momentum and direction of the market, allowing for more informed decision-making.
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What does the narrowing mean?
The narrowing of the Bollinger Bands occurs when the price becomes less volatile over time. This contraction indicates a period of consolidation or low market activity, where the price is trading in a tighter range. Narrowing bands are often interpreted as a signal that a significant price movement may be coming soon, as low volatility tends to precede high volatility. This phase is sometimes referred to as the "squeeze," and traders closely monitor it to anticipate breakout opportunities. The direction of the breakout, whether upward or downward, is not predicted by the narrowing itself but usually follows shortly after the bands have contracted.
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What does the widening mean?
The widening of the Bollinger Bands reflects increasing market volatility. When the price starts to move rapidly either up or down, the bands spread further apart to accommodate this movement. This expansion typically confirms that a new trend is underway or that a breakout has occurred. The wider the bands become, the greater the degree of price fluctuation. During these times, traders may observe stronger momentum in the market, and the continuation of the move may be supported by the growing distance between the bands. However, extremely wide bands may also suggest that a reversal could be nearing, as the market can become overstretched in either direction.
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How to trade with the Bollinger Bands?
Trading with Bollinger Bands involves using the bands to identify entry and exit points based on the behavior of price in relation to the upper and lower bands. One common approach is to buy when the price touches or breaks below the lower band and shows signs of bouncing back, and to sell when the price reaches or moves above the upper band and begins to retreat. Another strategy involves waiting for the bands to narrow significantly and then entering a trade in the direction of the breakout that follows. Traders often use Bollinger Bands in combination with other indicators such as RSI, MACD, or volume to confirm signals and reduce the risk of false breakouts. It is important to remember that Bollinger Bands are not predictive on their own but are most effective when used as part of a broader technical analysis framework.
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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CoinMarketCap chart and correlation with BTC
Hello, traders.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Have a nice day today.
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(USDT.D 1D chart)
USDT dominance is showing a downward trend along the medium- to long-term downtrend line.
The decline in USDT dominance can be interpreted as an upward trend in the coin market.
Therefore, if it remains below 4.91 or continues to decline, the coin market is likely to enter a bull market.
The coin market is expected to show a major bull market until 2025.
At this time, the USDT dominance is expected to fall to around 3.42 and then rise, causing the coin market to enter a bear market.
Therefore, a major bear market is expected in 2026.
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(BTCUSDT 1M chart)
You might think that it would be good if it continued to rise in a bull market, but in reality, that is not the case.
The reason is that if the price continues to rise, you have to buy more money.
Therefore, it will show a pattern of falling when appropriate and rising again when appropriate.
As I mentioned earlier, 2025 is a major bull market, so it will eventually show a rising pattern.
So, when should we buy and when should we sell?
It would be nice if we could know this a little bit faster, but we can never know.
Currently, BTC is renewing its ATH, so it is even more difficult to predict the movement.
Therefore, we can only predict it through predictable chart analysis techniques.
Among them, the method I use is to predict and respond to the high point using the HA-Low, HA-High indicators and the DOM (DMI + OBV + MOMENTUM) indicator using the Heikin-Ashi chart.
The DOM indicator indicates the end of the high and low points, and the HA-Low and HA-High indicators are used to establish a basic trading strategy.
The sky blue (#00bcd4) arrow is generated, indicating that the DOM (60) indicator is likely to be generated soon.
In other words, it means that the end of the high point is becoming more likely.
When the DOM(60) indicator is created, there is a high possibility of resistance, so the price is likely to fall.
Therefore, you should think about a countermeasure for the decline.
However, as I mentioned earlier, since 2025 is expected to show a major uptrend, it is recommended to sell in installments at an appropriate level to preserve profits.
The reason is that we cannot know how far it will fall.
The start of a full-scale decline is likely to begin when it falls below the HA-High indicator.
Therefore, if it falls after the DOM(60) indicator is created, we should observe whether a new HA-High indicator is created.
If a new HA-High indicator is created, the key point is whether there is support in the vicinity.
If a new HA-High indicator is not created, it is likely to fall to the current HA-High indicator location of 73499.86.
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A trend line has been formed between highs, but a trend line between lows has not yet been formed.
Therefore, it is difficult to predict how far it will fall once the decline begins.
In the 2025 bull market, BTC is expected to rise to around the Fibonacci ratio of 2.618 (133889.92).
Therefore, we should also consider countermeasures for this.
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(BTC.D 1M chart)
When will the altcoin bull market start?
I think the timing is when BTC dominance falls below 55.01 and is maintained or continues to decline.
I think the rising BTC dominance means that the funds flowing into the coin market are concentrated toward BTC.
Therefore, we should consider that a market for trading BTC has been formed.
If BTC dominance fails to fall below the 55.01-62.47 range, BTC dominance is expected to rise to around 73.63-77.07.
At this time, it is highly likely that it will encounter strong resistance and begin to decline.
Since it has not fallen below the mid- to long-term trend line, it seems likely that it will continue to rise.
In order to eventually turn into a downtrend, BTC dominance must fall below 60.
If not, I think it will be difficult to expect an uptrend in altcoins.
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
This period of volatility is expected to continue until July 11.
Therefore, the key issue is whether there is support near 111696.21.
If there is support at the 111696.21 point, it is expected to rise to the right Fibonacci ratio 2.24 (116940.43).
If not, we need to check whether there is support near 108316.90.
As I mentioned in the previous idea, three conditions must be met to break through the 111696.21 point upward.
- The StochRSI indicator is showing an upward trend with K>D,
- The PVT-MACD oscillator is showing an upward trend (if possible, above the 0 point),
- The OBV indicator of the Low Line ~ High Line channel is maintained above the High Line,
If the above conditions are met, I said that there is a high possibility of a stepwise upward trend from the 111696.21 point.
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The next volatility period is expected to occur around July 18 (July 17-19).
Therefore, we need to see if it can be maintained above 111696.21 until the next volatility period.
If it fails, we need to check if it is supported above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart, near 108316.90.
If not, it is likely to fall to the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart or near 99705.62.
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The basic trading strategy is to buy near the HA-Low indicator and sell near the HA-High indicator.
However, if the HA-High indicator rises, there is a possibility of a stepwise uptrend, and if the HA-Low indicator falls, there is a possibility of a stepwise downtrend.
The end of the stepwise uptrend is a downtrend, and the end of the stepwise downtrend is an uptrend.
That is, we can see that the support around the HA-High ~ DOM(60) section and the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low section will be important turning points for the future trend.
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On the USDT dominance chart, it seems likely that August 3rd will be the volatility period.
Looking at the BTC chart, it seems likely that August 2nd to 5th (August 1st to 6th) will be the pre-movement for the volatility period of August 1st to 6th.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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- This is an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
I will explain more details when the bear market starts.
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BTC Peak forecastedHI,
This is the weekly candle on BTC… showing in orange, a likely topping fractal, which would also likely propagate into something more like the dark orange, as we seek historic resistance levels to test for support.
As an interesting side note… i see DOGE coin as showing increasing strong bullish signals, which could indicate we are in the much prophecized decoupling of the DOGE-BTC pair… which will be a spectacular transfer of wealth from the dying giant to the intrepid coin of unconditional love! Thats what Dog’s represent… and it’s how the tribe feels about their coin too.
Biggest pump and dump of all time… the crypto geeks Pump btc, get the military dark money to buy in, and then dump it… empty bag. And where are they moving their money too? The favorite alt coins… and DOGE moves the biggest and fastest when it jumps and runs!
Good Luck!
Bitcoin's Next Target Based on a 210 Days Long ConsolidationAfter each 210 days long consolidation phase Bitcoin advanced 137% on average, from bottom to top, since the November 2022 bear market low. Such an advance would put Bitcoin at a price of $170,000 next.
Now, the 137% is just the average. In one occasion Bitcoin rose 83% while in another occasion total growth amounted to more than 200%. We are counting the rise from the consolidation phase lowest point.
Let's look at some numbers:
» An 83% rise would put Bitcoin just above $135,000.
» A 128% rise would put Bitcoin right at $170,000.
» A 202% rise would put Bitcoin at a price of around $225,000.
~200% is how much Bitcoin grew between late 2023 and early 2024.
How much will Bitcoin grow exactly? We don't know. What we can know for sure is that there is plenty of room available for growth.
We are aiming for at least 100% growth starting from 100K, that is, a target of $200,000. Can be $180,000 just as it can be $220,000. That's the cycle top.
Do you agree with this target?
Leave a comment with your number.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
BTCUSDT - going to 113866.19$My analysis is based on numerology, all the numbers you see on the chart are from the same place. There is a certain numerological symbolism, which tells me that the price has already put the bottom 49(13) and will make a reversal from the zone 52260+- and then will fly strongly upwards with the target first 89k bucks, and after 113k. It's time to look for a good entry point.
Bitcoin dominance chart ready to dump?Bitcoin dominance aka the btc.d chart has been in these 2 rising channels now for a long long tie, after ust recently being rejected down fro the top trendline of the neon yellow channel, there seems to be an opportunity here for it to potentially head down to retest the bottom trendline of that channel as well. If this occurs this could lead to an altcoin season. Price is right now combating the 50ma(in orange) and trying to maintain it as support. If this moving average flips to solidified resistance that greatly increases the chances of price going down to retest that bottom yellow trendline. Being that both of these channels are rising channels probability favors price action eventually breaking down from them instead of up so I have arbitrarily placed the measure move break down target of the yellow channel in a random spot below roughly where price could break down from the channel were it to be rejected strongly enough here by the 50ma. It’s retested this bottom trendline multiple times in the past and has always found away to avoid the breakdown thus far though so a breakdown there is definitely not guaranteed if it does retest the trendline, but even heading back down to retest the trendline in the first place may provide enough momentum for an alt season *not financial advice*
BITCOIN Epic Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
BITCOIN is trading in an
Uptrend and the coin made
An epic bullish breakout
Of an ATH level of 112k$
Which reinforces our bullish
Bias and we will be expecting
A further bullish move up
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
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Wyckoff Pattern- To understand trading at its core, you need to understand the Wyckoff Theory.
- Everything you need is in the chart and yes, it's simple and might look like copy-paste, but it's pure Wyckoff.
- Remember this post i made in 2021 ? check it again :
Remember, trading is like a washing machine, it shakes you up, spins you around, and pressures you to sell when you should be buying or Holding.
Not a price prediction, just a smarter way to level up your strategy.
Happy Tr4Ding !
Bitcoin can rebound up from support line of upward wedgeHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. In this chart, we can see how the price dropped from the 102800 support level, which coincided with the buyer zone, and later entered to wedge upward. In this pattern, price made an impulse up from the support line of the wedge pattern and broke the 102800 support level, after making a retest, and continued to move up. Bitcoin rose to the current support level, which coincided with a support area and even entered this area, but soon turned around and fell below. Next, price rose to this area again and then made a correction movement, after which it turned around and made an impulse up to the resistance line of the wedge, breaking the 108000 level. After this movement, the price bounced from this line and fell back to the current support level, where it some time traded in the support area. Later price rebounded and continued to move up. Now, I expect that BTC can correct to support line of the wedge and then rise to the resistance line of this pattern. That's why I set my TP at the 112600 points, which coincided with this line. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
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GOLD - Price can bounce down from resistance line of channelHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Gold broke out of its long-term rising channel and hit $3390 resistance level before momentum definitively stalled.
That failure marked a shift in control, as sellers forced price into a falling channel, establishing lower highs and lower lows.
Price fell to support level, after whcih it turned around and bounced up to resistance line of falling channel.
Now, Gold tests the upper boundary of the falling channel near $3318, where each bounce has been capped by declining volume.
Key support lies in the $3250 - $3235 area, aligned with multiple prior demand tests and the former rising-channel floor.
I expect Gold to reverse from the channel resistance and slide toward $3235, decisively breaking below the $3250 level.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
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HelenP. I Bitcoin can continue to fall and break support levelHi folks today I'm prepared for you Bitcoin analytics. If we look at the chart, we can see that Bitcoin has been trading inside a well-defined upward channel. The price recently touched the upper boundary of this channel for the second time and formed a clear reaction, indicating strong resistance. After this, BTCUSD started to pull back from the resistance zone around 110300 - 109800 points. At the moment, it is trading slightly above this support area, but momentum is already shifting downward. Given this structure, I believe Bitcoin is likely to continue its decline and break below the support zone. The previous upward impulse has already lost steam, and there are no signs of strong buying activity around the current levels. The next logical target in this scenario is the lower boundary of the channel, near the 107500 level, where the trend line acts as dynamic support. This level has historically served as a rebound point, and I expect it to do so again. My current idea is short, aiming for a move down toward the trend line. If BTCUSD breaks through the first support and confirms the weakness, the price could fall quickly and test the next support area around 105600 - 105000 points. But for now, I will be watching the 107500 level closely. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
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Let your winners run🧠 Fear | Hope | Growth – When Trading Meets Emotion
The message on the chart isn't just poetic — it's real psychology.
🔹 Fear wants to cut your winners short.
It sneaks in after a small move in your favor.
"What if it reverses? I better lock this in."
And just like that, a great trade turns into a missed opportunity.
🔹 Hope drags you into holding too long.
It dreams: "Maybe it doubles... maybe this time it'll be massive."
But it's not guided by data — it's driven by fantasy.
🔹 Discipline is what sits in the middle.
Quiet. Neutral.
It doesn’t scream or seduce — it just follows the plan.
And that’s where Growth lives — not just on the PnL, but in your psychology.
When Bitcoin pushes toward new ATHs, these emotions get amplified.
The real question becomes: Can you manage yourself, not just your trade?
📌 A Real Example from My Desk
In my earlier BTCUSD idea — “Another Edge – Decision Time” (shared above) —
I sent that setup to one of my managed clients.
He entered long exactly at the edge of the channel — a clean, strategic buy.
Price moved beautifully in our favor…
But he manually closed the trade at 106,600 — long before the move matured.
Why?
Because fear of giving back profit overwhelmed the original plan.
The chart was right. The timing was right.
But the exit was emotional, not tactical.
✅ The trade made money.
❌ But the lesson is clear: a profitable trade doesn’t always mean a disciplined one.
🎯 Final Takeaway:
“Fear kills your winners. Hope kills your timing. Discipline grows your equity and your character.”
🗣 What would you have done in that position?
Held longer? Closed at resistance? Let it run toward ATH?
Let’s talk psychology — drop your thoughts 👇
#MJTrading
#TradingPsychology #BTCUSD #FearHopeDiscipline #LetYourWinnersRun #PriceAction #BTCATH #ForexMindset #CryptoStrategy
BTC: Demand Zone + QML + Trendline Flip = Perfect SETUPHello guys!
BTC is showing signs of a potential bullish reversal, forming a Quasimodo Level (QML) setup inside a valid S&D zone that remains unbroken despite multiple tests.
The downward trendline has been broken and is now acting as support, aligning perfectly with the QML and demand zone. giving us a solid confluence area.
Important to watch:
Rejection wicks and volume building at $106.6K–$107.4K zone show strong buyer interest.
If price can reclaim $109K and consolidate above, we could see a move toward $112K and higher.
Invalidation below $106.4K suggests the demand has failed, and bears may regain control.
BITCOIN facing the most important Roadblock of the Cycle.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) reached $112000 yesterday, testing the May 22 2025 All Time High (ATH) and immediately got rejected. This ATH rejection is key to the continuation of the bullish trend as the entirety of the ATH Resistance Zone is perhaps the last (and most important) Roadblock before the final rally of the Cycle that could potentially price the new Top.
You can see that this Resistance Zone already had 3 rejections previous on its bottom and yesterday was the first one on its top.
A break above it can target $118400 at least within days, in anticipation of a +10.20% Bullish Leg, similar to the one following the June 22 Low.
If the rejection prevails however, we may see a pull-back that will test the bottom of the (blue) Channel Up.
Which scenario do you think will prevail? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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#BTCEUR #1D (Binance) Bull-flag breakout and retestBitcoin looks very good for bullish continuation after regaining 50MA support on daily, against the Euro.
⚡️⚡️ #BTC/EUR ⚡️⚡️
Exchanges: Binance
Signal Type: Regular (Long)
Amount: 12.0%
Entry Targets:
1) 93017.86
Take-Profit Targets:
1) 108422.28
Stop Targets:
1) 85296.36
Published By: @Zblaba
CRYPTOCAP:BTC BINANCE:BTCEUR #Bitcoin #PoW bitcoin.org
Risk/Reward= 1:2.0
Expected Profit= +16.6%
Possible Loss= -8.3%
Estimated Gaintime= 1-2 months