$ETH Closes Above the 50WMA - Alt Season Signal ALT SEASON ALERT 🚨
CRYPTOCAP:ETH Closed the Week ABOVE the 50WMA
Historically this has signaled the start of ALT SEASON.
*NOTE* 2020 had the pandemic hiccup.
This bottoming pattern looks very similar to the 2017 explosion.
Also the RSI matches the 2019 bottom.
Dare I call it yet bros? 🤓
BTC-D
21/07/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $123,220.24
Last weeks low: $115,718.15
Midpoint: $119,469.19
New BTC ($123,220) & SPX ($6,315) ATH last week! We're really seeing progress being made on all fronts now, bitcoin saw its sixth week of net inflows into BTC ETFs ($2.39B).
The week began strong hitting the new ATH very early and then settled into a tight range to cool off. Altcoins however surged in relation to BTC to break out of HTF downtrends and begin to make up lost ground. One of the beneficiary's of this price movement has been ETH, breaking out from a multi year downtrend against BTC and hitting $3,800 in its USD pair.
For this week I do expect much of the same for BTC as momentum is with altcoins for now. However, as those altcoins reach HTF resistance levels it becomes very important for Bitcoins chop to be accumulation for the next leg up and not distribution for the way down. With so few pullbacks the threat of a sudden correction is present but the probability drops should BTC look to press higher with strong demand.
The ECB Interest rate decision takes place on Thursday but no changes to the 2.15% rate is forecast. In terms of news there are no planned upsets that I can see.
Good luck this week everybody!
#BTC Update #8 – July 21, 2025#BTC Update #8 – July 21, 2025
Bitcoin isn’t moving in a textbook symmetrical triangle, but it’s trading in a similar, tight range, mostly bouncing around the highlighted box area in the chart. It’s attempting a new impulsive leg, but $120,000 remains a key resistance level, having rejected price several times already.
As long as $116,500 holds, there's no major risk for Long bias. However, considering the triangle-like structure, the short-term upside is limited to about 2% for now.
A breakout above the upper edge of this structure, particularly if $123,200 is broken with strong volume — would justify a Long position. Until then, I don’t plan on entering any trades.
The last corrective move has completed, and my next major upside target is $127,900. If further correction occurs, watch for potential support around $115,000, $113,000, and the strong base at $112,000 — though I don’t expect price to fall that low.
BTC 4H Structure Break – Long Bias with Conditions🚀 BTC (Bitcoin) has clearly broken bullish market structure on the 4-hour timeframe.
📈 My bias is to ride the momentum and look for a pullback to enter long.
✅ I follow a specific entry criteria — price must pull back into the imbalance, find support, and then form a bullish break of structure on a 15m chart to trigger an entry.
❌ If that setup doesn't play out, we simply abandon the idea.
⚠️ This is not financial advice.
Bullish bounce?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is falling toward the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 111,241.55
1st Support: 98,383.98
1st Resistance: 127,752.45
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BTC Exhaustion Zone Upper Wick Rejection Candle 🔶 (Orange Circle)
🔍 Candle Breakdown | July 14, 2025
• Opened near the lows
• Rallied intraday to $123K (ATH)
• Closed well off the highs, just above $119K
• Long upper wick = rejection of higher prices
• Elevated volume = signal is valid, not noise
🧠 Translation: Bulls charged into resistance. Sellers didn’t flinch — absorbed the move and slammed price back down. The result? “Exhaustion Candle.”
📦 Exhaustion Zone (Purple Box)
This is the real battlefield. If BTC fails to close above 119.5K by Friday, we likely get Manipulation over the weAkend:
🔄 Chop & Range Behavior
• Consolidation between ~115K support and ~120K resistance
• Classic pause before either expansion or collapse
🔻 Retrace Scenarios
• 21 EMA at $113K
• Breakout retest near $111K
💡 If we close the weAk closer to $111K than $125K… gravity’s working in favor of the HIGH powered short Zone again!
MMM still sTRONg — but without a decisive breakout above $125K, I might just be dancing with the market makers for once.
🧘♂️ Breathe in. Kill the ego. sTAY sHARP. Execute.
100% not financial advice, for edutainment purposes only!
ETH Weekly Recap & Game Plan 20/07/2025📈 ETH Weekly Recap & Game Plan
🧠 Fundamentals & Sentiment
Market Context:
ETH continues its bullish momentum, driven by institutional demand and a supportive U.S. policy environment.
We captured strong profits by sticking to the plan (see chart below).
🔍 Technical Analysis
✅ Price has run into HTF liquidity at $3,750
📊 Daily RSI has entered the overbought zone, signaling potential short-term exhaustion.
We may see a brief retracement or LTF liquidity grabs, which could be enough to fuel a further push higher — potentially to $4,087.
🧭 Game Plan
I’m watching two key downside liquidity levels:
$3,534 (black line)
$3,464
A sweep of either could provide the liquidity needed for continuation toward $4,087.
⚠️ I’ll wait for LTF confirmation before entering a position.
📌 Follow for Weekly Recaps & Game Plans
If you find this analysis helpful, follow me for weekly ETH updates, smart money insights, and trade setups based on structure + liquidity.
BTC Weekly Recap & Outlook 20/07/2025📈 BTC Weekly Recap & Outlook
Market Context:
Price continued its bullish momentum, fueled by institutional demand and supportive U.S. policy outlook.
We captured solid profits by following the game plan I shared earlier (see linked chart below).
🔍 Technical Analysis
✅ BTC made a strong bullish move, breaking into new all-time highs.
📊 The daily RSI entered overbought territory, which signaled the potential for a short-term retracement or consolidation.
Currently, price is ranging, and RSI is cooling off. That tells me the market is likely building energy for the next leg up — but not before a significant liquidity run.
🎯 Game Plan
I'm watching for one of two potential setups:
1️⃣ Liquidity Sweep to the Downside
- A run of the daily swing low
- Into the most discounted range (0.75 Fib zone)
OR
2️⃣ Tap into the Weekly FVG Zone (marked with the purple line)
Either move would create the liquidity and energy needed to fuel a breakout above the equal highs (EQHs) marked by the black line.
🚀 Target
First Target: EQHs (Black Line)
Second Target: Price Discovery (new ATHs)
💬 Let me know your thoughts or drop your own chart ideas below!
📌 Follow for Weekly Recaps & Game Plans
If you found this useful, make sure to follow for weekly BTC updates, market outlooks, and detailed trade plans based on structure and liquidity.
Last chance to reaccumulate Kaspa while it is below 10 cents?Second chance to accumulate CSE:KAS at below 10 cents after its correction down to 5 cents from its 20 cents ATH is coming to an end?
Previously, technicals looked great for CSE:KAS (and other ALTs too) with a breakout from a cup-&-handle pattern in July/Aug2024, but market says otherwise with gloomy economic report. >> For the small portion of capital assigned to trading crypto: I got stopped out from my (manually adjusted) trailing stoploss, with an approx. 6.8%avg loss from my BTC and ETH DCA spot injections into CSE:KAS from 10 cents all the way to 20 cents ATH.
For my long-term investment hold, I had bought from 2 cents all the way to almost ATH (at ~15 cents) and still holding and adding to it now as long as KAS is below. 10 cents. Had started accumulating aggressively again within the green zone, and probably gonna stop soon once KAS leaves the orange zone.
Last cycle, my main Altcoin investment focus was in ADA (POS and UTXO based chain based on academic research and peer-reviewed design), eventually selling most of other ALTs into ADA. This cycle, my personal investment focus is in Kaspa — and probably holding 15%(?) through the bear market correction after blow-off-top into the next cycle together with BTC and some ETH as well. Fingers crossed with regards to price; although the technology, decentralization ethos, and general fundamentals behind it is IMO extremely sound, and has a high probability (though not certain) to eventually establish itself to become one of the (if not THE) top L1s into the future.
———————————————
My reply re. the past YTD price performance of CSE:KAS , which I feel might be worth sharing here.
"For Kaspa, on the YTD timeframe, it has corrected ~50% down, after a ~10x rise from about 2 cents (when I first got in, in 2023) all the way to 20 cents. It is still an early tech about 3 years old and still not widely know; hence as an investment, it is definitely risky and high volatility is to be expected (not listed in high liquidity Tier1 exchanges yet), just like BTC in 2017 where I first bought at ~3kUSD, and a lot more significantly at 5k, and all the way to its ATH at 20kUSD, and stupidly held when it dropped all the way to 3kUSD, and kept on buying with a long-term view.
I view Kaspa in the same light as BTC (different from other cryptos), the only two that I will probably still hold a small but significant portion of, after the blow off top of this cycle due to its fundamentals that I am personally drawn towards -- e.g. POW but 6000x faster than BTC in bps, and ultimately will be 60000x faster once the DAGKnight protocol is implemented in 2026 (trilemma solved); protocol are based on peer-reviewed published research; fair-launched with no-VCs pre-allocation nor pre-mine; no central controlling figure; no DAG/Chain bloating due to implementation of pruning and where 0% TX-archival nodes are needed to maintain the security of mining, and are only necessary for explorers and institutions that intends to track TXs; (soon to come in Q4) Two Layer 2 implementations that will eventually be "Based-Zkrollups" (something that Ethereum planned to implement but was not feasible due to speed and cost issues, even after its POS-fork) -- where L2 TXs are instantly settled onto L1 without security compromising batching of TXs and delayed settlement that Eth-L2s currently does, and more.
But KAS is just a crypto project that I am personally interest in; and I am certainly not recommending anyone to buy as an investment, well unless they see something interesting in it too as I do. ;)"
BTC Bull & Bear historical Periods 3 Bull & Bear Markets
Bull markets took around 152 weeks...
then
V
v
v
v
v
Bear Markets took around 52-59 weeks..
then
v
v
v
v
v
v
v
Bull Market gain...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
After 2021 ATH
BTC recorded his current bottom after 52 weeks ( 15500 $).
BTC pumped after 59 weeks .
then what ?
Will the history will repeat itself again ??
if we will be alive inshallah ,we will see the next 152 weeks to ( October - November 2025 ) if this will be the New ATH of the next bull market or not :D
It is not a financial advice , PLZ DYOR
BTC/USD Short-Term🔷 Pattern: Symmetrical Triangle (Consolidation)
The price is inside the triangle formation (orange lines) and is approaching its completion.
An impending breakout (up or down) is highly probable within the next few hours.
📉 Support Levels (red lines):
117.210 – local horizontal support.
116.324 – 115.050 – strong demand zone (potential target in the event of a downward breakout).
📈 Resistance Levels (green lines):
118.900 – 119.700 – local resistance zone.
121.011 – 121.813 – higher target in the event of an upward breakout from the triangle.
📊 Technical indicators:
✅ RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Currently: 69.05 – close to overbought levels, but not yet at an extreme.
Potential for a short-term pullback unless a strong breakout occurs.
✅ MACD:
Signal lines are tightly intertwined, histogram flat → no dominant momentum.
Waiting for a breakout signal (bullish or bearish crossover).
✅ SMA:
Price currently below the 50 and 200 SMA for 1 hour → slight downward momentum.
The 50-SMA (red) is turning down, which may signal a continuation of the sideways or downward trend.
📌 Short-term conclusions (1–6 hours):
Scenario 1: Bullish breakout:
Confirmation: H1 candle close above 118,900.
Targets: 119,700 and potentially 121,000–121,800.
Scenario 2: Bearish breakout:
Confirmation: H1 candle close below 117,200.
Targets: 116,300, then 115,000–115,300.
📍 Watch for:
Breakout of the triangle boundaries with volume.
RSI behavior relative to the 70 level.
MACD crossover and histogram.
Btc triangle burst |. Bullish This chart shows a 15-minute timeframe analysis for BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) using Elliott Wave .
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📊 Chart Summary:
Wave Structure:
Labeled with corrective wave A–B–C, indicating the end of a corrective pattern.
Price is currently in the potential reversal zone near Wave B, suggesting a bullish move toward Wave C completion.
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✅ Trade Setup:
Entry Zone: Around current price levels (≈117,889.74)
Stop Loss (SL): 117,440.13 (marked in red)
Target (TP): 119,818.29 (marked in green)
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR): Approx. 1:4, a favorable trade setup
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🔍 Key Technical Observations:
Bullish Projection: A large green zone indicating strong bullish momentum if Wave C plays out.
Invalidation Zone: Price falling below 117,440.13 would invalidate the bullish count.
Volume Marker: Small thunderbolt symbol at the bottom could imply a volume spike or a critical event time.
Chart Title: Published under Greenfireforex branding, timestamped Jul 20, 2025, likely indicating a public or private analysis post.
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📌 Possible Interpretation:
This chart suggests a buy opportunity for BTCUSD if price respects the bottom zone (117,440) and begins to climb toward the projected target (119,818). It uses wave theory logic assuming this is a Wave C rally, and price has completed a corrective move.
I'm ready to answer in comments session
BTC/USDT – Bullish Pennant Setting Up for the Next Leg!Bitcoin is currently forming a bullish pennant — a classic continuation pattern — right after a strong 14% impulse move. This type of structure often leads to a breakout followed by another powerful rally. And it’s coiling up nicely.
🧠 Technical Breakdown:
🟢 Bullish pennant formation in progress
🔽 Support zone: $115.5K – $116.5K
📏 Flagpole projection targets $135K+ on breakout
⚠️ Currently consolidating with lower volatility — breakout could be near
🔍 What to Watch For:
Clean breakout above pennant = breakout confirmation
Daily close below $115K = invalidation zone
Volume spike will likely signal the next move
📢 Final Take:
BTC is showing healthy consolidation after a strong move, and this pennant could launch us toward $135K and beyond. Keep your eyes on the breakout and manage risk wisely.
💬 Share your thoughts below & smash that ❤️ if you’re watching this move!
Powell’s Comments Could Decide BTC’s Fate: New ATH or Rejection!Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) has attacked the Support zone($116,900-$115,730) several times over the past week but failed to break through, meaning that buyers are still hoping for a BTC increase or even a new All-Time High(ATH) .
Bitcoin has reached a Resistance zone($119,530-$118,270) again and is trying to break the upper lines of the Symmetrical Triangle Pattern . The Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($117,255-$116,675) is important and includes high sell orders , so if Bitcoin can break the Resistance zone($119,530-$118,270) and the Resistance lines with high momentum , we can hope for a continuation of the upward trend.
Whether or not the Resistance zone($119,530-$118,270) and the Resistance lines break could depend on the tone of Jerome Powell’s speech today .
Jerome Powell will speak at the opening of the “ Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks ” — the final major appearance before the Federal Reserve enters its pre-meeting blackout period.
Market Expectations:
The speech is officially about regulatory frameworks (like Basel III), but traders are watching closely for any hints regarding interest rate policy. Even indirect comments could move risk assets like BTC.
Rate Cut Signals?
With political pressure mounting (including criticism from Trump ) and markets pricing in a potential cut later this year, Powell may adopt a cautious, data-dependent tone emphasizing flexibility in decision-making.
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In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that the wave structure of the main wave 4 correction is over. The main wave 4 has a Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) , so that the microwave B of the main wave 4 has a Double Three Correction(WXY) . Of course, the breakdown of the Resistance zone($119,530-$118,270) and Resistance lines can confirm the end of the main wave 4 .
Also, there is a possibility that the 5th wave will be a truncated wave because the momentum of the main wave 3 is high , and Bitcoin may NOT create a new ATH and the main wave 5 will complete below the main wave 3.
I expect Bitcoin to rise to at least the Resistance zone($121,000-$120,070) AFTER breaking the Resistance zone($119,530-$118,270) and Resistance lines .
Second Target: $121,620
Third Target: $123,820
Note: Stop Loss(SL)= $117,450
CME Gap: $115,060-$114,947
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $117,429-$116,878
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $116,053-$115,411
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
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