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Btcdivergence

Bitcoin confirmed lower lowBINANCE:BTCUSDT If we are looking on a chart without noice we clearly dropped and formed lower low. But on Weekly timeframe RSI climbing up, so its a huge divergence. And the more higher timeframe the more power for reversal move. All market waiting 21 September and data of RATE. So usually all upcoming news and event included in price a weeks before! And sentiment on a market - everyone waiting 15 or 10K. Literally the same like everyone waited 100K in November Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch! ✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes. * Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓ * For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Long
by Crypto4light
Currency Wars: Exploring BTC/Fiat Ripple Effects on Key Markets1. Introduction In today's interconnected financial markets, major fiat currencies like the Euro (6E) and Yen (6J) play a critical role in influencing USD-denominated assets. The relative strength between these currencies often reflects underlying economic trends and risk sentiment, which ripple across key markets like Treasuries (ZN), Gold (GC), and Equities (ES). However, Bitcoin (BTC), a non-traditional digital asset, introduces an interesting divergence. Unlike fiat currencies, BTC's behavior during periods of significant market stress may reveal a unique relationship to USD movements. This article explores: The relative strength between the Euro and Yen. Correlations between fiat currencies, BTC, and USD-denominated markets. Whether BTC reacts similarly or differently to traditional currencies during market volatility. By analyzing these dynamics, we aim to identify how shifts in currency strength influence assets like Treasuries while assessing BTC’s independence or alignment with fiat markets. 2. Relative Strength Between 6E and 6J To evaluate currency dynamics, we compute the relative strength of the Euro (6E) versus the Yen (6J) as a ratio. This ratio helps identify which currency is outperforming, providing insights into broader risk sentiment and market direction. Another way to think of this ratio would be to use the RY1! Ticker symbol which represents the Euro/Japanese Yen Futures contract. Correlation Heatmaps The correlation heatmaps below highlight relationships between: o Currencies: Euro (6E), Yen (6J), and Bitcoin (BTC). o USD-Denominated Markets: Treasuries (ZN), S&P 500 (ES), Crude Oil (CL), Gold (GC), and Corn (ZC). o Key Observations (Daily Timeframe): The 6J (Yen) shows a positive correlation with Treasuries (ZN), supporting its traditional role as a safe-haven currency. Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrates mixed relationships across assets, showing signs of divergence compared to fiat currencies during specific conditions. o Key Observations (Weekly and Monthly Timeframes): Over longer timeframes, correlations between 6E and markets like Gold (GC) strengthen, while the Yen's (6J) correlation with Treasuries becomes more pronounced. BTC correlations remain unstable, suggesting Bitcoin behaves differently than traditional fiat currencies, particularly in stress periods. 3. BTC Divergence: Behavior During Significant Moves To assess BTC's behavior during stress periods, we identify significant moves (beyond a predefined threshold) in the Euro (6E) and Yen (6J). Using scatter plots, we plot BTC returns against these currency moves: BTC vs 6E (Euro): BTC returns show occasional alignment with Euro movements but also exhibit non-linear patterns. For instance, during sharp Euro declines, BTC has at times remained resilient, highlighting its decoupling from fiat. BTC vs 6J (Yen): BTC's reaction to Yen strength/weakness appears more random, lacking a clear pattern. This further underscores BTC’s independence from traditional fiat dynamics, even as Yen strength typically aligns with safe-haven asset flows. The scatter plots reveal that while fiat currencies like the Euro and Yen maintain consistent relationships with USD-denominated markets, Bitcoin exhibits periods of divergence, particularly during extreme stress events. 4. Focus on Treasury Futures (ZN) Treasury Futures (ZN) are among the most responsive assets to currency shifts due to their role as a safe-haven instrument during economic uncertainty. Treasury prices often rise when risk aversion drives investors to seek safer assets, particularly when fiat currencies like the Yen (6J) strengthen. 6E/6J Influence on ZN From the correlation heatmaps: The Yen (6J) maintains a positive correlation with ZN prices, particularly during periods of market stress. The Euro (6E) exhibits a moderate correlation, with fluctuations largely dependent on economic events affecting Eurozone stability. When relative strength shifts in favor of the Yen (6J) over the Euro (6E), Treasury Futures often attract increased demand, reflecting investor flight-to-safety dynamics. Forward-Looking Trade Idea Given the above insights, here’s a hypothetical trade idea focusing on 10-Year Treasury Futures (ZN): Trade Direction: Long Treasury Futures to capitalize on potential safe-haven flows. Entry Price: 109’29 Target Price: 111’28 Stop Loss: 109’09 Potential for Reward: 126 ticks = $1,968.75 Potential for Risk: 40 ticks = $625 Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 3.15:1 Tick Value: 1/2 of 1/32 of one point (0.015625) = $15.625 Required margin: $2,000 per contract This trade setup anticipates ZN’s upward momentum if the Yen continues to outperform the Euro or if broader risk-off sentiment triggers demand for Treasuries. 5. Risk Management Importance Trading currency-driven assets like Treasury Futures or Bitcoin requires a disciplined approach to risk management due to their volatility and sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts. Key considerations include: a. Stop-Loss Orders: Always use stop-loss levels to limit downside exposure, especially when markets react sharply to currency moves or unexpected news. b. Position Sizing: Adjust position size to match market volatility. c. Monitor Relative Strength: Continuously track the 6E/6J ratio to identify shifts in currency strength that could signal changes in safe-haven flows or BTC behavior. d. Non-Correlated Strategies: Incorporate BTC into portfolios as a non-correlated asset, especially when fiat currencies exhibit linear correlations with traditional markets. By implementing proper risk management techniques, traders can navigate the ripple effects of currency moves on markets like Treasuries and Bitcoin. 6. Conclusion The relative strength between the Euro (6E) and Yen (6J) provides critical insights into the broader market environment, particularly during periods of stress. As shown: Treasury Futures (ZN): Highly sensitive to Yen strength due to its safe-haven role. Bitcoin (BTC): Demonstrates unique divergence from fiat currencies, reinforcing its role as a non-traditional asset during volatility. By analyzing correlations and BTC’s reaction to currency moves, traders can better anticipate opportunities in USD-denominated markets and identify divergence points that signal market shifts. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZN1!Education
by traddictiv
13
Bitcoin Bullish Divergence!!taking a look at our BTC/USD daily chart here ive realized that we have formed a bullish divergence! This pattern signals a bullish reversal from our current trend and can be identified from seeing lower highs on price action shown by the yellow trend line and then higher lows on the oscillator and i prefer to use the Stochastic RSI to identify these patterns. Now what this means is that at some point coming up soon we should see an explosive breakout from Bitcoin towards the upside (reversal from our current downtrend) in turn the market overall should get a significant move from this and we can expect everything to start running hot if this plays out! We do have some big hurdles to clear if this is true, we have the yellow downtrend resistance, resistance at a heavy level of 58.8K and then aswell as the bollinger bands midline which is currently resistance and finally very heavy resistance at the aprx 60K level. Now breaking through these is definitely possible its just a matter of how long and when, with some major momentum we could easily smash through a couple of these before possibly getting rejected, now even getting rejected isn't a bad thing it is normal and some of these levels will take more than one attempt to breakthrough. The MACD looks ready to boom in my opinion, we have seen multiple flat red cycles recently with not a ton of movement but we are now approaching the point of a bullish cross. We want to see on the histogram is a strong push into green territory with our bars making increases day after day showing that rise in bullish momentum! With the MA's we want to see separation with the blue on top pushing away from the orange making it more difficult to get a bearish cross. Not financial advice just my opinion!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by JacobR905
BTC Dominance Hidden Bearish Divergence!!!Checking out BTC's dominance i have found something very clear if you know what you are looking for and that is a hidden bearish divergence, and yes this pattern signals a continuation of trend, and we are very clearly still in a strong downtrend as shown by the multiple move path to the downside and aswell as the RSI being below the midline for months now. So by the looks of this very strong pattern we are set to continue the downwards fall on BTC's dominance meaning altcoins will thrive soon enough! Now there is a couple different ways to look at this and they both point to the same thing, look at the purple trend lines on both the candle sticks and the stoch RSI, the candles show a lower high while the stoch RSI shows higher highs which means a hidden bearish divergence! Now look at the yellow trend lines on the same two areas, the price action one shows again a lower high while the stoch RSI shows a higher high signaling once again this bearish continuation pattern! This overall is very positive for the whole market but especially altcoins, with BTC dominance likely too continue its fall as we get lower and lower we will see altcoins start to have some explosive breakouts! Now whats even more interesting and more bearish is the fact that we are actually trading wiithin a bearish pennant, this pattern is known to be historically bearish and as we approach the apex point of the pennant we can expect and watch for a breakout of the bottom of the pennant, and likely an explosive move downwards as we have 2 very very bearish patters playing out ontop of eachother! Now check out the RSI we are at the midline which does act as resistance currently but even if we do break above here i think its going to be short lived as we have strong longer term resistance directly above and this level hasn't been visited in months so i would personally expect a big rejection off here. The stoch RSI besides playing into the hidden bearish divergence is actually into the overbought zone adding to this bullish looking chart! plus the resistance levels we will face if we do move up more! Now finally the MACD still is moving bullish but that is clearly fading away as we are seeing a decline in the green bars day after day and with us approaching that midline which acts as resistance, plus we are getting very close with the orange MA so any sharp moves down will almost 100% lead to a bearish cross. Like i have said before these patterns don't have to play out the next day to still be valid and we could see this draw out over the rest of this week or maybe not, i think something huge is coming and we should start seeing this play out the closer we get to this pennants apex point which is roughly 2-3 days away! Not financial advice just my opinion!!!
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DShort
by JacobR905
6
Bitcoin Starting To Look Very Bullish!!!We are starting to look better and better everyday here with BTC, we are following this bullish divergence very nicely which is going to bring us an overall trend reversal like i have been talking about recently, the main difference between a hidden divergence and regular divergence is that the hidden ones signal a trend continuation and the regular divergences show a trend reversal, and since we have recently been in a strong short term downtrend shown by a hard 1-2-3 move to the downside we are looking very good for a reversal back into an uptrend! Like i talked about yesterday i said we had to see a strong push up to regain our pivot point (Bullish) and tonight we are looking like we are about to do that, we need to wait and see what our daily close looks like at 8pm EST, if we are successful at regaining this level we are looking even more bullish ontop of the very strong bullish divergence pattern, even if we don't get the daily close tonight we are still in good shape and definitely will still have the chance to do so in the coming days. Looking at the Stoch RSI we are in very good shape here we are seeing the blue continuing to push strongly to the upside! we are also right about to enter back into the middle zone coming up from the oversold area, we want to continue to see separation in the 2 MA's with the blue remaining on top and we got to keep seeing a strong push up with the blue reaching to the sky. Looking at the Wavetrend we are seeing the wave starting to bottom out with us slightly starting to curl in the bottom half of the zone, we are still quite a ways away from the upper zone and the very top level so we are looking great there, we really want to see the red crosses pass the actual wave and go onto the bottom side of the wave to start giving us that real push upwards. Upcoming key levels: most importantly the pivot point, 45K level, 46 and 47K levels. Key levels to hold: the pivot point if we regain it, 42K range, and very importantly the 40K level! Not financial advice just my opinion!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by JacobR905
Bitcoin Bullish Divergence Playing Out!!!I mentioned the other day that we BTC was looking to be going in the direction for a bullish divergence pattern, which signals a trend reversal and since we have been in a short term hard downtrend (shown by heavy 1-2-3 move down) we are looking at a bullish reversal! There are a couple things we really have to watch to make sure this fully confirms, the most important being on the Stoch RSI, we don't want to see a sharp bear crossover. Looking for the blue to see some good separation from the orange and we want to keep seeing this upward direction coming from the blue. The other big thing we have to keep an eye on is the pivot points, we are directly below the pivot level with us wicking off earlier and at some point soon like the next day or two we want to see a strong push to regain this level and to further the bullish momentum. Checking out the MACD we are still a bit away from a bullish cross and a regain of the midline, but we are seeing some positives like the blue MA starting to slightly curl with the orange coming MA towards the blue MA, we also are seeing a decline in bearish momentum on the histogram, we have definitely seemed to have peeked for this macd cycle and we are starting the comedown towards the midline with hopefully us starting to see some green bars by the end of this week! Not financial advice just my opinion!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by JacobR905
BTC Possible Bullish Divergence Shortly ago i called a continuation hidden bulliush divergence on BTC and it played out beautifully and now i noticed something very very exciting that has a very possible chance of playing out! A reversal bullish divergence, and so the main difference between the hidden divergence and the regular is that with the hidden we see a continuation of the current trend and after i called that the next day we started to run up since we were technically still in an uptrend or just starting to roll out of one, and for this bullish divergence it signals a reversal move from the current trend and we are actually technically in a short term downtrend as you can see by our RSI, it briefly regained the midline but not for long and we have since came back down into downtrend territory. My thoughts are we could be seeing 1 final flush out of weak hands, liquidations of traders and to overall put fear into the market before really starting to gain steam! you can also tell we are in a short term downtrend due to the clear 1-2-3 move to the downside shown by the path. What we really need to see happen in order for this to play out successfully is for the Stoch RSI to come down and touch roughly around the trend line i have drawn, we need to see a bounce and a reversal from around that trendline and then once we successfully do that we have a clear higher low on the Oscillator and on price action we already have a clear lower low and that will form the bullish divergence! Looking at the RSI as i said we are in a clear short term downtrend but if this pattern plays out what we want to see is a rise up from the RSI pushing through the midline at 50. and regaining this level in order for us to see another confirmed uptrend! Not financial advice just my opinion!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by JacobR905
BTC Bullish Hidden Divergence Update! As talked about yesterday i have found a hidden bullish divergence on BTC 1D Timeframe, and this if all goes to plan is absolutely bullish for us, this divergence pattern signals a continuation of trend and we are in a clear uptrend. This pattern can be spotted by noticing higher lows in price action but then lower lows on an oscillator, the best ones i find is the Stoch RSI and the CMF. Even without this divergence i think we are definitely due for another leg up in PA, we have had a significant pullback which in times like this is needed and is 100% healthy for our overall structure and is necessary for us to keep heading upwards in a healthy way, if we didnt have pullbacks we would collapse ontop of ourselves. A good way to look at it is look at a skyscraper and the construction that is needed to build it, supports need to be built starting at the floor and more supports need to be made in order for the building or in our case market structure as we head higher and higher upwards, and if these rules aren't followed the skyscraper would collapse ontop of itself. Now i think if we start t shoot upwards i think a very conservative target for us shorter term is the 50K level or the 0.2 FIB, we will definitely need lots of momentum to breakthrough here and we could still have some trouble breaking through the first time, there are other levels in our way for sure but not as significant 47-48K i think will be our biggest challenge other than the 0.2 FIB. Very positive news coming from the MACD as you guys can see the histogram is shrinking and it may not be fast moving but we are decreasing in red bar size each day and thats exactly what we want as we come to a possible end for this bearish MACD cycle, we probably still have a few more days to go before we see a bullish cross but always keep an eye out. The blue MA is slowly but surely starting to make its way upwards and coming back towards the orange MA but we are still a bit away, and this is why i say for our bullish cycles we need to see big separation in the MA's because it lessens our chances of seeing a near term bear cross! Not financial advice just my opinion!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by JacobR905
BTC HIDDEN BULLISH DIVERGENCE!!!Bitcoin is starting to slow down on the dip and its pretty clear and i just found something great! A hidden bullish divergence, this signals a continuation in trend which in our case is still an uptrend! we have had a healthy correction for our structure and in order to keep going up, there is still a chance for us to see a little downside but it isn't super likely, the possible level i could see is 43K which we wicked at the beginning of the dip, what im thinking is possible is a retest of 43K and i would say a likely hold of that level. Looking at the MACD we are starting to look positive on the histogram with our daily bar starting to flatten out, this shows resistance on the bearish momentum and could more than likely lead to the start of a reversal and then ultimately a bullish cross! One thing we also have to watch is the bollinger bands this is where we can further tell where we are likely heading, if tomorrow or even tonight before close we start to press downwards we have to watch for our candle grabbing onto the bottom band as we would probably fall right down to that 43K level. On the other hand we are currently seeing 2 transition candles which could also be giving us a sign, what we want to see is some pushback from the bulls hopefully going to regain the 46 & 47k levels and then another test will be the midline coming from the BB, it is now clear resistance we are going to have to break above sooner than later. Besides the hidden bullish divergence on the stoch RSI we saw a nice bounce and we are now looking for that confirmed bullish cross and separation with the blue ontop of the orange! Not financial advice just my opinion!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by JacobR905
BTC Hidden Bearish DivergenceFound a hidden bearish divergence on the BTC 4HR timeframe and if you aren't familiar with divergences, regular ones signal a reversal and hidden signal a continuation, so what i am thinking is that this could lead into the much talked about possible pullback i have been mentioning. As you can see coming from our recent high we have been in a little bit of a downtrend and this divergence could be signaling a continuation or lead into a pullback! Not financial advice just my opinion!
BINANCEUS:BTCUSD
by JacobR905