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Btcusdidea

BITCOIN - Bear Market about to endAs with every bearish cycle, panic is reigning in the crypto world right now. And for this very reason it seems appropriate to make this analysis that, hopefully, will shed a ray of sunlight on the fearful ones. Since there is a lot to work with, I will divide the analysis into 3 parts (please note that this is macrocyclical trend analysis but fundamental analysis has not been considered). The material in this publication has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any viewer. This publication is presented solely for informational and entertainment purposes and is not to be construed as a recommendation, solicitation or an offer to buy or sell / long or short any securities, commodities, cryptocurrencies or any related financial instruments. Nor should any of its content be taken as investment advice. Trading and investing is extremely high risk and can result in the loss of all of your capital. Any opinions expressed in this publication are subject to change without notice. 1) Cycle Duration: Bearish cycle & Bullish cycle 2) Bear cycle bottom & Current bear market correction 3) Bull cycle top & Next bull cycle gains 1) Cycle Duration Bearish cycle : If we measure the duration of the previous bearish cycles, we can see that the 1st cycle lasted around 150 days, the 2nd cycle lasted around 640 days, and the 3rd one lasted near 820 days. If we average them we can estimate a duration of 550 days for the current bearish cycle. As a result, we can infer a high degree of probability that we'll touch the bottom within the 4th quarter of 2022. Bullish cycle : If we measure the number of days between the maximums of each cycle, we obtain an average of 1180 days. With this result we can infer that the next cycle top will be around June 2024. On the other hand, measuring the duration of the bullish cycle of each macro cycle, we obtain an average of 600 days per cycle. Which allows us to forecast that the next bullrun will be between the 4th quarter of 2022 and the end of 2023 1st semester. 2) Bear cycle bottom & Current bear market correction Bear cycle bottom : The first bitcoin correction was about 93%, the 2nd one was near 85%, and the 3rd one was arround 83%. On average, bitcoin corrections have been reducing by 5 points per cycle, so we can infer that the current correction can reach approximately 73%. The price bottom we obtain with these calculations is roughly $14,000 3) Bull cycle top & Next bull cycle gains Bull cycle top : As in all markets, as the market capitalization of an asset increases, the amount of money that needs to be injected to produce a significant price movement also increases. Therefore, in percentage terms, we can expect the profit level of the next bullrun to be lower than the previous one. In total terms, the 1st bullrun saw a rise of around 52,000%, the 2nd bullrun rise was close to 12,000%, while the 3rd rise was close to 2,000%. With this movement patterns it's fair to assume that the gains porcentage will be lower, so we infer gains of up to 1,000% for the next bullrun. The price top we obtain with these calculations is roughly $150,000 I hope you enjoy this review and found it useful. Or, at least, that this helps to give that little push needed for trend reversal. Cheers!
BNC:BLXLong
by GSANMARTINv
1
bitcoind prediction based on justin mamis sentiment cycleReturning Confidence By the time confidence is fully restored the markets have been rallying for some time. They start to get choppy and retracement moves get consecutively more fierce, each one more intimidating than the last. Buying the Dip (the big dip) A huge pullback now gets underway, even larger than the scary one you may have witnessed last month or so. After such a dynamic bull run, investors are willing to take on a phenomenal amount of risk and the smart money buys the big dip. Also, money is still flooding in from the general public, who likely read in The Sun that stock markets will remain strong for all eternity. Enthusiasm At this stage all economic data still supports the idea of higher prices. Traders that didn’t get involved in the last dip-buying opportunity now have hard evidence that it worked before. All of the traders that wanted to be long, are long (there are no more buyers), causing prices to decelerate. Distribution starts to take place, i.e. stock transfers hands, from smart money to stupid money…. Strong to weak. Disbelief Traders start to get that gut wrenching feeling that something may be changing but the fundamentals still don’t back this up, and people cling onto hope alone. Analysts start to get subtle warnings. Maybe previous market leaders start to break below important support levels or Moving Averages. Overt Warning/Panic Discouragement and Aversion Prices have been rattling off for some time now, as the general public start shedding stock and the short sellers are stronger than ever. There’s no good economic news flow and everyone thinks that stock markets will go down forever. Wall of Worry Certain market sectors will now start to bottom out as everyone that wanted to sell has done so. The smart money now starts to move in slowly, resulting in the market pausing for breath or drifting along sideways for a few months. There are no sellers left, so despite the bad news flow markets start to creep higher. Short sellers start to cover their positions, adding fuel to the fire. Aversion to Denial Markets start to trend upwards. Short sellers start to get concerned that sentiment has changed. With no sellers above the market, these sorts of moves can be fast and sharp and tend to leave people behind. This brings us back to ‘Returning Confidence’.
by MDkarimovic
2
Bitcoin and rest of the market in accumulationHi guys lots of mixed signals going around the market at the moment ,which generally indicates big investors wanting to buy in at a cheap price as it shows we have already hit the bear market bottom and through some TA and FA we can make a call that our position is long -RSI has a hit a strong oversold region and is also indicating a strong bullish divergence in the 4 monthly -Market cap has hit the top of the 2018 market and therefore the bottom cap for the 2022 of 850bil -Overall volume is indicative of Huge amounts of oversells leaving bears liable for long positions within 4-8 month positions overall expect all short positions in the next 6 months to get absolutely lit up current volume depth is growing alt market will be prime for yearly long positions entrys right now with most coins being able to 4-8x within the next bull market.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Glo1235122
Nightmare BTC ScenarioThis is the worst case scenario for BTC, a giant macro head and shoulders. The best case scenario is that we bounce at the macro GP around 9-10k. Based on the S&P fractal (the one from the 2008 crash that perfectly fits our current price action) I have to assume the worst for the crypto market. I was just waiting to see what the "news" would be that triggered the huge crash, and we just got it with FTX. That's our "black swan event" - buckle up everybody. Short everything for financial freedom, and don't forget to put your hands up and yell "weeee!" all the way down. Also make sure to withdraw profits on the way so the exchange isn't insolvent by the time we get there lol
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by DigiLex_LLC
8
Bitcoin - Shattering of the Bitcoin bubbleYesterday, we projected a downward sloping channel and laid out conditions for its invalidation that came later with the breakout above the upper bound. In such a scenario, we stated the pattern would most likely get distorted. However, an increase in volume after the weekend makes us speculate about the price returning to the channel. Although, such development has to happen either today or tomorrow; otherwise, distortion of the pattern will materialize. Despite that, we stick to our bearish narrative, mainly due to the persistence of bearish fundamental and technical factors. Among fundamental factors, we view threat predominantly in the prospect of higher interest rates, quantitative tightening, and a slowing economy. Indeed, mounting evidence continues to show the U.S. economy is headed into a deeper recession toward the end of 2022. As such periods are typically accompanied by risk-off mood among market participants, we expect this time to be no different. Regarding technical factors, indicators show bearish signs across daily, weekly, and monthly time frames. That, in reality, reflects a powerful downtrend of a higher degree with the potential to last through the rest of 2022 and very likely also throughout 2023. Because of that, we have no reason to change our medium and long-term outlook on Bitcoin. Indeed, we think the cryptocurrency market will stand a test over the coming months, with Bitcoin retesting its 2022 lows. Accordingly, we stick to our price targets at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the downward sloping channel we introduced yesterday. However, the breakout above the upper bound invalidated the channel. Because of that, we pay close attention to volume, which is on a pick-up after the weekend. In our opinion, that is a bearish sign, foreshadowing the price's return into the channel. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI strives to turn bullish. MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 portrays several bearish developments on the daily chart of BTCUSD. Yellow arrows indicate bearish breakouts below support levels and bearish crossover between 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA. All these developments support our bearish narrative. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.03 The weekly chart of BTCUSD also shows two moving averages: 20-week and 50-week SMA. The price naturally retraced to its 20-week SMA, serving as a strong correction of the downtrend. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Short
by Tradersweekly
27