AAPL LongHey traders, we are monitoring AAPL for a buying opportunity around 168 zone, once we will receive any bullish confirmation the trade will be executed.
Trade safe, Joe.
Buyaapl
AAPLAAPL strong buying opportunity, Apple stock is approaching a very strong demand zone following the bullish trend and the strong supply and demand zone.
AAPL stock signal buy buying opportunity
a breakout of vwap with a very large volume it means a buying opportunity
APPLE: POST EARNINGS - 1.42EPS & $42.4BN BEAT - UP 8% @ 103.5 PMApple beat expectations marginally at 42.4bn and 1.42EPS.
Apple reported not outstanding results, but nonetheless, the earnings call from Tim Cook et al. gave Apple the momentum to break the 101 resistance level and we closed post market up at the last low 100 resistance level at 103.5 (filled the low 100's resistance gap in).
Today the market will go either way -
1) With more liquidity backing the move break-out to the 104's - from here I would advise buying with a target of 110-112.
- Signs of this move would be a bullish pre-market e.g. 104-5; I would advise buying this level ASAP OR risk-averse traders could wait and see if we get a pullback into the 103.8 resistance level at some point after the rally as a recovery leg of the move higher which would be almost inevitable
2) and my preferred prediction is that more liquidity brings us back down to at least the previous resistance level at 101 before then moving higher in the next few days to break-out the 104 and trade towards 110, as IMO 103.4 is high relative to the results - yes they just beat estimates but IMO the estimates were very low and i infact expected more. Nonetheless, given apples depression and even at 110 trading 20% down I can easily see this becoming a recovery rally to the 112 level before reversing (especially as the Nasdaq continues to make new 12m highs on its way to ATH). BOJ on friday is something to watch out for though - a miss will likely turn risk markets sour and take the carpet from under apples feet say if it was at 107.
- Signs of this will obviously be a quiet pre-market or a bearish pre-market e.g. trading at 103 flat, then when market opens we see a cascade of old TPs move us to the 101 level where supply/ demand stabilises. Or simply in pre-market we've already moved to 101 and are ticking along. IMO if this is the case it is best to see if we can get a 102/104(breakout) before buying as at 101 we run the risk of breaking lower (as we have seen apple break lower from 101 several times).
3) Also it is possible that the market sees apple as expensive at 103/4 so sells off straight through the 101 resistance say to low 99/100's - this imo is a bearish setup and i dont think Apple will plan on having any upside momentum going forward e.g. no 104 breakout if today in pre/ normal market we see 100 or less.
- Signs of this will obviously be a sell-off from the 103.5 post market to the 100 level in pre/normal market. Here I have no interest in buying as i expect apple to move back into the 90's with time - also you have to remember even a sell-off to the 100s shows apple up 4% as it closed at $96 yesterday.
Personal Note:
I have long been an apple bull so i like the topside possibilities but equally Apple has struggled of late to hold onto gains/ rally. that said, the time to rally would be now (on target earnings/ bull market/ upbeat earnings call/ broken initial resistance levels) - it would have been nice to see apple trade through the final level at 104 which is the last highly restrictive technical level left, but the fact it held means we have to be vigilant - read the above and make smart decisions.
APPLE: EARNINGS PREVIEW - LOW BAR; 1.38EPS & REVENUE $42.34BNApple earnings to be released after market today
Expectations:
1. 1.39EPS and $42.31bn Revenue
- I personally have been an Apple bull for some time - I believe the bar for apple has been set low, with EPS 25% lower than last year and Revenue target also 15% lower than last year - I think this is achievable as Iphone SE sales will be included in the income statement for the first time this quarter which should help beat the low 42.34bn target.
Risks:
1. Obviously, if Apple misses these expectations i see downside to $89-90 immediately happening - nonetheless I think this opens up a valuable buying opp and I will be buying any 89-90 (or lower) lows, once the earnings hit/ miss flows are over as i believe apple is very cheap on a multiple basis some 10x.
Trading Strategy:
1. On an earnings beat I think because AAPL price has been depressed for so long (30% for 6m+), APPL will see significant topside e.g. to $111 so you should BUY AAPL at market and hold past the 101 breakout for 110tp.
2. Equally, if AAPL misses, we should clear existing risk at $95 and reenter APPL at the MISS bottom which should be $89, or perhaps less.
- I like owning Apple as it is one of the least leveraged companies, with over 250bn in cash & marketable securities (highly liquid) and generates 40-60bn dollars in bottom line profit, with 200bn revenue - thus it is one of the most profitable companies. With this cash, Apple in the future (under new leadership) can regain its prowess and make new highs e.g. 140-160 within the next 12-18m - before if they actually invest in M/A or some heavy R/D - poor leadership by Tim Cook is to blame for APPL's stagnant performance imo - they should have purchased Yahoo to compete with Google ad rev, Twitter to compete with FB and Netflix to grow their Apple TV business - all of which would have worked due to Apples massive worldwide brand and i believe such acquisitions can be made in the future thus I value owning Apple.
Any questions let me know.
