GBP/JPY BUY OPPORTUNITY (HOURLY):Fib retest of reversal zone, before flying up continuing weekly bias.
Buygbpjpy
GBPJPY LONGLooking for continuation long, GBP pairs have been on fire this last week. I have two positions in prof, just added a final position on this. The trend does appear to remain bullish, I believe it will smash through the last daily high, especially if the JPY GDP is reported at the contracted rate that is expected.
🙂 good luck
GBP/JPY BUY OPPORTUNITY (4 HOURS):GJ retracing off a swing low, back up to reversal zone. Stops below lower reversal zone, move stops to BE when in profit. Wick entry caught🤩.
GBP/JPY broken fibonacci level=>extensions to -62% GBP/JPY broken fibonacci level=>extensions
The last fibonacci zone is broken and we're heading to a fibonacci extension tot -62%.
We could enter from a retest outer trendline 134.000
Take profits 136.000
and 139.00
Always risk 1-3 % of your captital
GBPJPY LONGGBPJPY SET UP
4.17 RR, Simple price action set up.
Chart Explains it all
Follow for regular updates
Buy GBPJPY buy entry on GBPJPY @ 128.0 with safer entry @130.2
target @144.5
confluence of monthly sup [port and daily pinbar
GBJPY Bounced off Support, more Rise expected!In my previous idea, I advised about buying GBPJPY at 143.80-144.10 area. As you can see, the price has moved up after hitting the area that I mentioned. If you have already bought at the support area, you can hold the trade for 145 and 147 TP.
Others can see the lower time frame and then go long.
For FREE SIGNALS, charts, and analysis, check my signature link at the bottom of the page.
FINAL Support Zone: BUY GBPJPY, Low Risk TradeAs I mentioned in my previous idea, GJ has two support zones. The first support at 144.80 failed and now we can back to the major support at 143.80-144.10. The number 144 is very important. Not only has it supported the price recently, even in 2017 and 2018, 144 acted as a major support.
So, in my opinion, traders can buy with low risk at this support zone between 143.80-144. TPs can be set at 145.20 and 146.70 respectively.
SL should be placed at 143.50
Open Buy on GBPJPY (because long breakout sell angle mirrors)Open Buy order on GBPJPY - 145,36
SL - 145,13
TP - 147
RRR - 1:7.2
Last signal was sell on GBPJPY. But this pair breakout sell levels (145.29 and 145.35)
So buy order was opened.
BOJ EXPECTATIONS: EXCEED/ HIT - LONG USDJPY; MISS - SHORT GBPJPYBOJ Miss - Sell GBPJPY @Market price; 129tp1 - up to 800pips.
1. A BOJ miss can be considered as delivering the median expectations e.g. 10bps cut to the depo (-0.2%), 10bps cut to the LSP (-0.1%), Yen10trn increase in monthly JGB purchases & 50% Increase in Annual ETF purchases e.g. 3.3trn-5trn. Fiscal Stimulus Yen10-15trn.
- The package above or less should be sold as the market expects this to maintain UJ at 105-6 level.
- The short GBPJPY is a great trade anyway as you benefit from the BOE easing carry which should in turn move us to 125 (BOJ miss and BOE hit) - which the BOE 1m forward OIS rates market currently prices 25bps at 100% and the average expectations are 25bps and £50bn of QE (even more certain now as the BOE M. Weale - the most hawkish MPC Member moved to the easing side as Business optimism and PMI dropped to their 10yr lows) - thus GBPJPY can expect further downside even past the BOJ as the BOE is all but guaranteed to ease "most members expect to ease at the august meeting" - July BOE Minutes Quote.
- Currently a BOJ miss is the most likely outcome - as many of you have seen in FX Yen has been brought aggressively as expectations have fallen, much a mirroring from the change in rates market where - For the 25th the 3m JPY Libor prices only a 6.65bps cut at to the key rate at 100% and on the same date the 3m euroyen August future prices only a 5.5bps cut at 100%. Though the further dated September 3m euroyen future prices a 9bps cut a 100% - likely a function of the market betting on more action being done in the september meeting (which makes sense).
BOJ HIt: Buy USDJPY @Market price; 107-111tp - up to 700pips
1. A BOJ Hit can be considered as double or more the median expectations (in my opinion) - 20bps+ to the depo, 20bps+ to the LSP, Yen20trn+ to the JGB Purchases and 100-200% extra annual ETF purcases from Yen3.3trn to 6.6/9.9trn. Yen20-30trn Fiscal stimulus.
- The package above or more IMO will allow $yen to trade to 111, and for a sustained amount of time.
- The long USDJPY is the best proxy to play the "over-delivery" imo as USD is the most stable base, and has the most pips to gain on yen weakness - given FOMC hawkishness/ Hiking expectations give USDJPY topside even more impetus.
- As above, the markets currently DON'T expect this result, as $Yen trades at the 104 level and rates markets price only 5-6bps of lowering. HOWEVER, if BOJ/ JPY Govt are to deliver a big easing package - one that smashes expectations (such as the one above) it will be now. The reason I think this is the case is below:
LONG GBP/JPYLooking to buy the GBP/JPY this morning as the CPI y/y figure is expected to show an increase in inflation which could bring forward the expectation of an interest rate hike from the BoE. On the other side of the trade the JPY is particularly weak at the moment with a poor Prelim GDP reading on Sunday evening and expected intervention from the BoJ in the FX market to keep their currency weak in order to aid exports; which in turn should help bolster the economy. there is alos talk of a a further rate cut from the BoJ.
