UPDATE I was wrong with USD/ZAR - Now it's undecidedWith trading it's not about certainties but probabilities.
And in this case I was soo optimistic about the rand breaking its Inverse Cup and Handle and heading to R16.50.
But instead the USD/ZAR rallied to R19.74.
Apart from the negativity kicking in with the US, there is one thing I didn't really consider. And that is the US Dollar is going to hurt - no doubt.
But the rand and emerging economies will more likely hurt even worse. Because despite it all we still follow the big boys (DOw, SP500, UK100)
Hence when the US sneezes, the world catches a cold.
But then we have other reasons for the rand weakening
1. 🗳️ Political Uncertainty in SA
Coalition tensions and governance concerns are making investors nervous, pushing money out of SA.
2. 📉 Lower SARB Interest Rates
South Africa cut rates again, making the rand less attractive to yield-seeking investors.
3. 🌍 Global Risk-Off Mode
Traders are fleeing emerging markets amid global tensions—hurting the rand, boosting the dollar.
4. 💼 Weak SA Economic Outlook
Low growth, high unemployment, and power issues reduce confidence in South Africa’s economy.
5. 🇺🇸 Stronger Dollar Demand
U.S. dollar gaining strength globally due to safe-haven demand and higher relative rates
So, yes - We are seeing some rand strength now and we are back to R18.88.
We will need to wait for the next formation before we make any deductions on where it is likely to go.
It could break up with the Falling Flag and run up to R20.00.
Or it could stabilise and form an Inverse Cup and Handle again and drop to R17.50.
We need to wait and see. I can't always post my winners - or else I wouldn't be an actual trader.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
