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BVOL

BVOL: Volatility Compression Before the Final ExpansionThis chart might not get as much attention as BTC dominance or TOTAL, but Bitcoin volatility (BVOL) is one of the cleanest leading indicators when it comes to identifying market tops and bottoms. Just look at the history — every major macro top or bottom in BTC price has correlated with a peak or trough in this chart. Whether it was the ATH in March 2024, the October 2024 breakout, or the deep pullbacks into key lows, BVOL has nailed the timing with precision. Right now, we’re seeing volatility compressing hard — currently sitting around 13.17 — and heading into my targeted demand zone which has historically marked major inflection points. 🧠 What does this mean? Volatility this low = market indecision + positioning. It’s when liquidity gets sucked dry before a major expansion move. My expectation is: - BVOL will soon hit demand and reverse - BTC will complete its current correction - Once volatility expands again, it likely aligns with a reversal and move into new ATHs — the final bullish phase of this cycle Just like in past cycles, low volatility precedes explosive directional moves. This current compression is setting the stage — once the lid comes off, the move is usually fast and decisive. ⚠️ Watch this closely. BTC correcting into demand + BVOL hitting this low = confluence for the next trending leg. Big picture context: We’re deep into the 4-year cycle structure, with a macro top expected into Q3/Q4 2025. This setup supports the idea that after this consolidation and volatility reset, BTC could make one final leg up before distribution begins. Let the volatility tell the story — it usually whispers before it roars.
BITMEX:BVOLLong
by marshyyy
2
BVOL (Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index) Weekly TF 2025 Summary: BVOL (Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index) remains compressed near historic lows. This analysis explores the potential for a volatility expansion cycle, key Fibonacci retracement levels, and how shifts in volatility may precede directional moves in BTC and the broader crypto market. Chart Context: Timeframe: Weekly (1W) Current BVOL: ~13.23 Historical Support Zone: ~11.76–15 (consolidation base since 2022) Resistance Area: ~25–35 (marked breakout threshold) Fibonacci Retracement (from peak ~192.79): 23.6% = 56.17 → 2nd TP 38.2% = 89.01 → 3rd TP 48.6% = 99.74 → Intermediate fib zone 61.8% = 123.63 → Cycle expansion cap (potential BTC top region) 100% = 192.79 → All-time spike (rare volatility events) Key Technical Observations: Consolidation Floor: Since mid-2022, BVOL has hovered near extreme lows often a prelude to sharp directional moves. Support-turned-Resistance: Past volatility surges often topped near fib clusters (23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8%). These will likely act as TP zones during volatility spikes. Expected Path: Base breakout above 25 → TP1 = 35 Acceleration phase → TP2 = 56–60 High volatility climax → TP3 = 85–89 Volatility Trend Commentary: Current Phase: Low volatility compression, common in accumulation phases. Volatility Expansion Signal: A break above the 25–35 band may signal the start of a high-volatility impulse (typically aligned with large BTC directional moves). Dotted Paths on the chart reflect the two key expansion possibilities: Straight rally up to TP3 (85) Mid-stage pullback post-TP2 (bear trap scenario) Macro Correlation: BVOL vs BTCUSD: Historically, BVOL lows precede strong BTC trends — both bull and bear cycles. BVOL vs BTC.D: BVOL surges often shift dominance; either BTC leads during volatility or altcoins rotate post-BTC move. BVOL vs TOTAL / TOTAL2 / TOTAL3: Volatility compression in BVOL is directly tied to range-bound TOTAL3. Total: Total2: Total3: BVOL expansion is often mirrored by strong TOTAL2 & TOTAL rallies. Confluence seen between BVOL TP zones and critical fib levels in TOTAL charts. Bias & Strategy Implication: Volatility Expansion Expected: Current structure is unsustainable; expansion is highly probable in coming weeks/months. Watch BTC Price Action: If BTC breaks key levels while BVOL rises → Confirmed trend. Portfolio Strategy: Prepare for volatility-driven liquidation zones. Use BVOL to gauge position sizing and risk. Notes & Disclaimers: This analysis is part of the BitonGroup Macro Series. BVOL is not a directional indicator but a volatility proxy. use in combination with price and dominance metrics. Always combine volatility forecasts with proper stop-loss and leverage management.
BITMEX:BVOLLong
by BitonGroup
BTCUSD: Targeting $146,387.66 According to Volatility IndexesBVOL (Realized BTC Volatility) has a huge gap implying an eventual 758% Upside within the index while at the sametime DVOL (Implied BTC Volatility) has a Bearish 3 Line Strike which is a very Bullish Pattern implying upside in it aswell. The last time BVOL rallied by 615% it was coupled with BTC itself going up about 610%. Applying that same logic to the current price action; If BVOL goes up 758% then BTC will go up about 750% from where it was which would take us all the way up to a macro target of about $146,387.66
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by RizeSenpai
Comparison of BTC and Historical Volatility (BVOL)TF: D Comparing symbol: BVOL Pretty interesting set-up on Bitcoin and the crypto market in general. Bitcoin volatility is a historic low right now and historically when volatility reaches a low in this general area price action really ticks up (both downwards and upwards). This is marked by the pink horizontal lines on the chart. I am expecting some big volatility and price movement over the next several months. Keep in mind that if volatility is low it doesn't mean an uptrend will occur and has no meaning in which way price will trend, it just signifies a potential increase in volatility. What is even more interesting is usually volatility spikes when lows are reached, but it looks like volatility is slowly trending down. With smart trading and a good understanding of price action, this might give great opportunities to capitalize on the market.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MC_Mike_Trading
1
BTC & BTC Volatility - Volatility at all time lowNobody is talking about Bitcoin volatility, but everybody is talking about VIX - so here's the chart and please join me for this TED talk on the history of bitcoin volatility index BVOL when compared to BTC. We can argue about how BVOL is calculated and whether or not it's relevant but whatever your opinion may be, you need to focus more on the comparison between the two instead of what they actually are. We do know they're relatives of each other and that's what matters the most. The first significant event I want to discuss is the all time high on BVOL which was right around February 6. This is where BTC created a (temporary) major bottom that lasted through most of 2018. Next - BVOL made a new low. Volatility was extremely low and this was around November 12 leading into a major cliff dive. We all remember this, right? BTC was stuck at around $6400 for what felt like a year, even though it was only a month or two. Next - BVOL had a huge recovery going into November / December and into 2019. BVOL created a significant top around December 14 which happens to be when BTC was around $3200 - do you remember the low? It was around $3100. Who cares about a $100 miss on a long term trade? Only overleveraged degenerates that use high leverage and can't manage a trade. Ok, next.... we had a huge run going into June/July and if you didn't get out, you were WARNED on February 8 when BVOL created a bottom and started moving up. BTC was around $9900 at the time and took a NOSE DIVE into the $4000-$5000 area. Bitcoin was dead back then, remember? But then.... BVOL created a high. A pretty significant one. It started to curl down when BTC was at around $7000. You could have taken that run to $60,000 if it weren't for BVOL creating a significant low around July 27 which put BTC at $11k. BTC did drop a bit... down into around $10k and each time BVOL spiked up, there was a selling opportunity. I try to focus on only the major pivots that are in the extreme territory. I think it's safe to say that BVOL is in extremely low territory seeing that it has never been here before. Each time we've seen an extreme low, we've seen BTC drop. I know, it's hard to think that BTC will drop from here. You're so bullish! Everyone is! Be careful trading with the herd and whatever you do, make sure you have a plan. Have. A. Plan.
BITMEX:BVOLShort
by bitdoctor
BTC/BVOL Bullish Continuation, VIX Bearish BAMM, DXY Bearish 5-0BTC looks to be continuing the move it started yesterday after hunting for the stops below the POC and then defending the EU Brinks Box During the US Brinks session. BVOL is Bullishly Diverging at the lows Signaling a rise in BTC Volatility is imminent. The SPX is Bouncing off of a Liquidity Zone and off of the 1.618 Extension PCZ of a Bullish Shark that may now take it back to the supply line and confirm a Partial-Decline for the second time. The VIX S&P Volatility Index seems to be struggling at the Moving Averages and setting up for a Deep Crab Bearish BAMM that will take it down to $14 The DXY is showing weakness at the PCZ of a potential Bearish 5-0 that will probably take it down to equal or lower lows than the previous low.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by RizeSenpai
Bitcoin Volatility Spike [BEARISH]Something to keep an eye on at the moment is the recent and confirmed spike on the BVOL chart we have seen last week. Furthermore, the BVOL is now finding support at a very key level where if held could see Bitcoin volatility spike again here in the coming hours and days. As we can see the Bitcoin bulls failed to make a lower low here on the chart which now forces one to become very cautious if you are a Bitcoin bull currently. Longer term everything on the BVOL still looks bullish for the price of Bitcoin but short term, a continued bounce in BTC Volatility could mean a further pullback in Bitcoin here in the coming days. I will be watching closely to see if the BVOL can close back below the light green support line line I have drawn before seeking any further longs. The second scenario would be a spike up to our red downward sloping trendline that has rejected the BVOL 3 separate occasions on very significant time scales. This area would be an excellent area to begin buying Bitcoin again as well. For now I will wait and see as it appears retail traders have now been woken out of their slumbers and their sudden irrational FOMO could be setting the table for one last nasty shakeout before Bitcoin decides to run to higher prices again. Lastly, for the ultra bullish case, a break not just back below my light green support line, but ultimately below my yellow line at 64.44 basis points is the level that must get broken before the floodgates of liquidity can rain down on the asset again. This last check box would almost certainly mean a likely revival of the Bitcoin bull market again.
BITMEX:BVOLShort
by TradeVibez
1
Bitcoin Buy Levels For a week that has the Greyscale Bitcoin dark cloud looming over its head, Bitcoin, out of a sudden turn of events, has managed to come back from the grave and is currently forcing its way back above what I believe to be significant areas of support/resistance. And although it is premature at the moment to say, Bitcoin is in my opinion confirming a buy signal IF it can hold above this $31967 price level that we are currently battling at. A daily and preferable weekly candle close above this level could be the entry of a low risk, large size long as the price level of $31967 represents a very important mathematical level of a .236 fibonacci retracement. For me personally, it is THE level where I begin my entries for longs. And anything below this price is bearish until bulls can prove otherwise. Now, however, bulls are proving otherwise and are attempting to push the price above our .236 fib level. Keep in mind that this is only the little brother of a much larger .236 fib level still over our heads at around the $37500 area. This level corresponds with the all time high in bitcoin so this level in my opinion will be the gateway back into full blown bull market in Bitcoin.. but lets not get far ahead of ourselves just yet. Bitcoin now has much work to do as the battleground and area of interest is this $31967 area on the weekly as a close above this would be a signal for a good size long with stop losses 2-3% below it (this is my own personal risk tolerance). If price action closes above this level this week, local price targets will be as follows: $31967 $33739 $35171 And of course just above $35171 we have our boss level at $37500 (the 2nd .236 fib). Keep in mind that Bitcoin also still finds itself below a major downward sloping supply line that has extinguished every attempted rally since the all time high top in BTC price. This infact means that Bitcoin is still bearish UNTIL a confirmation close occurs above our 1st .236 level at minimum, but ULTIMATELY this diagonal resistance line must be broken as well. So going forward the setup is pretty simple. To sum up, closes above $31967 makes me bullish, anything below that, I am not trading. IF we break bullish, we must break above the orange downward sloping supply line as this will be the final hope for bears before BTC potentially squares up for a test of our 2nd .236 fib level. Your floor and final level of support is $29104 with major resistance from the swing high at $41238. PLZ USE ALERTS AND OR STOP LOSSES
B
by TradeVibez
BVOL Breaking BearishThe Bitcoin Volatility Index has broken bearish and looks to be confirming. This indicator in the past has been a bullish to neutral signal for bitcoin in the past as the asset tends to do much better and show more stability when there is less hype and speculation in the market. It should also be noted that in the past as the BVOL fell, bitcoin was either bottoming or simply trading sideways before ultimately still running up in price. This is a great chart to watch, as institutional whales love to buy bitcoin when the BVOL is at low levels.
BITMEX:BVOLShort
by TradeVibez
Broke this channel like a loli angusViacoin MAN thinks that this is going to lead to a good bull run where those with brass balls can make profits and get aroused by funds. If everyone thinks they will realize that we have been locked in a channel in the BVOL7D and we haven't seen much action as a result of this. Normally when this indicator his a low, we see some aggressive and arousing movements. Viacoin MAN is long on XBTUSD (entry 6056.2) and XBTZ18(6160.5) with 10x. He feels comfy and will take profit after this breakout. He is also looking at some consolidation happening now so extra funds from his XBTUSD funding are really neat, RNR wrote an article on this. The next run up from BVOL7D will help Viacoin MAN determine the momentum of this move. He wants to maximize his gains and doesn't what to be caught like a fool HODLing a contract. If you look at the alts, they are suffering from blueballs and this is going to get $BTC excited.
BITMEX:BVOL7DLong
by ViacoinMAN