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GBPUSD TECHNICAL REVERSAL SHORT FORECAST Q2 W22 D27 Y25GBPUSD TECHNICAL REVERSAL SHORT FORECAST Q2 W22 D27 Y25 🔥👀TECHNICAL REVERSAL HOT PICK Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Weekly order block ✅15' order block ✅Intraday bearish breaks of structure ✅Tokyo ranges to be filled 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
EURGBP SHORT FORECAST Q2 W20 D13 Y25EURGBP SHORT FORECAST Q2 W20 D13 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Weekly order block ✅15' order block ✅Intraday bearish breaks of structure ✅Tokyo ranges to be filled 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
2025 GBP/USD Outlook Fundamental & Technical PreviewFundamental analysis WHSELFINVEST:GBPUSD showed resilience in 2024, falling just 1% across the year. The pair experienced strong gains between April to September, rising from a low of 1.23 to a high of 1.34. However, GBP/USD fell 5% in the final quarter of the year amid notable USD strength, pulling GBP/USD from 1.34 to the 1.25 level where it trades at the time of writing. While the pound booked losses against the US dollar in 2024, GBP's performance against other major peers was impressive, rising solidly against EUR, CHF, CAD, AUD, and JPY. GBP/USD has been supported across 2024 by the BoE cutting rates at a slower pace than the Federal Reserve and by the expectation that this trend would continue in 2025. However, Donald Trump's victory in the US election, combined with the Labour government’s Budget, means that the outlook for both economies has changed, potentially impacting the direction of monetary policy in 2025 for both central banks and GBP/USD. GBP/USD outlook – UK economic factors Growth The UK economy is expected to continue to grow in 2025. However, GDP could be weaker than the 1.5% forecast by the BoE owing to several key factors, including uncertainty surrounding trade and a less expansionary UK budget. Trump’s second term in the White House brings uncertainty, and UK trade will be under the spotlight. While the UK isn’t directly in the firing line for tariffs, the openness of the UK economy means a global shift towards increased tariffs could hurt growth prospects. However, should the UK pursue and achieve closer ties with the US or the EU, this could help growth but not to the extent of reducing the impact of Brexit. The extent of the indirect impact of trade tariffs on the UK will depend on their magnitude. The UK is already experiencing depressed growth, which Trump’s action could exasperate. The BoE forecasts GDP growth of 0% in Q4 2024 and 1.5% in 2025. The OECD forecasts 1.7% growth, and Bloomberg's survey of economists points to growth of 1.3%. Inflation In November, inflation in the UK was 2.6% YoY, rising for a second straight month and remaining above the Bank of England's 2% target as wage growth and service sector inflation remain sticky. The labour market has shown signs of easing, but unemployment remains low by historical standards at 4.2%, and wage growth elevated at 5.2%. We expect some softening in the UK job market following the Labour government’s first Budget. Chancellor Rachel Reeves placed a major tax burden on employers with a rise in employer National Insurance contributions and an increase in the minimum wage. A broad range of UK labour market indicators point to a weakening outlook, with surveys indicating that UK firms (especially smaller firms) are scaling back hiring plans. Although wage growth and service sector inflation were slightly firmer than expected at the end of 2024, the disinflationary trend remains intact, with core inflation well below last year's highs. The BoE projections show CPI could reach 2.7% in 2025 before easing to 2.5% in 2026. However, this could be lower if the labour market weakens further and if growth remains lacklustre. Will the BoE cut rates in 2025? At the final BoE meeting in 2025, the BoE left interest rates unchanged at 4.75%, in line with expectations. However, the vote split was more dovish than expected, at 6-3 compared to the 8-1 forecast. This suggests that dovish momentum is building within the monetary policy committee for a rate cut in February. The central bank signaled gradual, rare cuts throughout 2025 amid sticky inflation, although policymakers are increasingly concerned over the growth outlook. The market is pricing 50 basis points worth of cuts in 2025, supporting the pound. However, this could be conservative given that the labour market could weaken considerably following the Budget. A weaker labour market will lower wage growth and impact consumption, potentially cooling inflation faster. Uncertainty surrounding trade could ease inflationary pressures further in 2025, meaning deeper cuts from the BoE than the market is pricing in. As a result, GBP could come under pressure across H1 2025. GBP/USD outlook - US economic factors USD strength was nothing short of impressive in Q4. The USD index jumped 5% to reach a two-year high, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut rates at a slower pace in 2025. Despite the outsized move in Q4, we expect further USD strength in 2025. At the time of writing, US CPI has risen for the past two months, reaching 2.7% YoY in November. Core PCE is also proving to be sticky, remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Earlier confidence at the Federal Reserve that inflation would continue falling to the 2% target appears to have faded amid ongoing US economic exceptionalism and a cooling but not collapsing labour market. Signs of sticky inflation come as the US job market remains resilient. Nonfarm payrolls for November showed 227k jobs were added. Unemployment has ticked higher but is expected to end 2025 at 4.3%, down from 4.4% previously expected. Meanwhile, economic growth in the US remains solid. The US recorded Q3 GDP as 3.1% annually, up from 2.8% in Q2. According to the OECD, the US is expected to see strong growth among the G7 economies, with 2.8% growth expected in 2024 and 2.4% forecast for 2025. A combination of sticky-than-expected inflation, solid growth, and a resilient jobs market suggests that the US economy is on a strong footing as Trump comes into power. Political factors Trump is widely expected to implement inflationary measures, including tax cuts and trade tariffs. Inflationary policies at a time when US inflation is starting to heat up again could create more of a headache for the Federal Reserve continuing with its easing cycle. Will the Federal Reserve cut rates in 2025? At its last meeting of 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the second consecutive 25-basis-point cut and following a 50-basis-point reduction in September, when it kicked off its rate-cutting cycle. However, the Fed also signaled slower and shallower rate cuts in 2025. Fed Chair Powell’s press conference and policymakers’ updated projections confirm that the Fed will be much more cautious next year. The Fed increased its inflation forecast to 2.5% YoY, up from 2.1%, and isn’t expected to reach 2% until 2027. The market is pricing in just 35 basis points worth of cuts next year, and the first rate cut isn’t expected until July. However, Trump’s policy plans will be the most significant determinant of the Fed's decisions regarding rates next year. Technical analysis Overview The GBP/USD pair has been in a clear downtrend since its peak in May 2021, marked by a swing high of ~1.4205 and a subsequent low of ~1.1800 in September 2022. The recent price action suggests the pair is consolidating near key psychological and technical levels, hinting at potential future moves. This analysis incorporates a refined Fibonacci retracement that spans the broader bearish cycle for a more holistic perspective. Long-Term Fibonacci Analysis The updated Fibonacci retracement has been applied from the May 2021 high of ~1.4205 to the September 2022 low of ~1.1800. This adjustment provides a better representation of the long-term market structure and aligns key levels with historical price reactions: 23.6% Retracement Level (~1.4007): This level aligns closely with the psychological 1.4000 level, making it a key resistance area should the pair see a bullish recovery. 38.2% Retracement Level (~1.3884): This level historically coincides with areas of consolidation and resistance, suggesting it could act as a ceiling for mid-term rallies. 50% Retracement Level (~1.3785): Situated near prior structural highs, this is a crucial midpoint for evaluating the strength of any bullish correction. 61.8% Retracement Level (~1.3660): Often referred to as the "golden ratio," this level aligns with significant historical resistance, further reinforcing its importance. 78.6% Retracement Level (~1.3548): This deeper retracement could serve as an area of rejection in a bullish recovery scenario. Short-Term Impulse Fibonacci Analysis Focusing on the most recent bearish impulse, the Fibonacci retracement spans from the swing high of 1.3170 (August 2023) to the recent low of 1.2384. Key levels from this retracement include: 23.6% Retracement Level (~1.2612): The price has hovered around this level recently, suggesting it acts as a local resistance point. 38.2% Retracement Level (~1.2785): This level is bolstered by confluence with horizontal resistance, making it a critical test for bullish momentum. 50% Retracement Level (~1.2850): Represents a midpoint and potential short-term rejection area. 1.618 Fibonacci Extension (~1.2139): This provides a logical downside target should the bearish trend continue. 3.618 and 4.236 Extensions (~1.1164 and ~1.0644): These deeper levels indicate the potential for significant bearish continuation in the long term. Other technical indicators Moving Averages The 21-week SMA (~1.2924) remains above the current price, acting as dynamic resistance. The 50-week SMA (~1.2785) coincides with the 38.2% retracement of the recent impulse, reinforcing its importance. RSI and MACD The RSI (47.96) is below the midpoint of 50, indicating bearish momentum. Watch for divergence near key Fibonacci levels. The MACD histogram is negative, with no signs of an imminent crossover, confirming bearish pressure. Support and Resistance Zones Key Resistance Levels 1.2612: Recent price interactions suggest this is a significant short-term barrier. 1.2785: The 38.2% retracement of the impulse move, coinciding with the 50-week SMA. 1.3000: A psychological level with historical significance. 1.4000: The 23.6% retracement of the broader move and a long-term target for bullish recovery. Key Support Levels 1.2384: The recent swing low. 1.2139: The 1.618 extension of the recent impulse move. 1.2000: A critical psychological threshold. 1.1164 and 1.0644: Deeper Fibonacci extensions providing long-term bearish targets. Conclusion The GBP/USD pair remains in a bearish trend, with key levels from the updated Fibonacci retracement offering valuable insights for both potential reversals and continuation scenarios. Traders should monitor the interaction of price with the 1.2612 and 1.2785 resistance levels, while keeping an eye on the downside targets of 1.2139 and below. The RSI and MACD confirm bearish momentum, while moving averages provide additional context for dynamic support and resistance. A multi-timeframe approach will be crucial in navigating this pair over the coming months, with the broader trend still probably favoring the bears. -- written by Fiona Cincotta & WH SelfInvest
Short
by WHSelfInvest
GBPUSD 1.32055 -0.08% SHORT MULTI TIME-FRAME ANALYSIS + DXYHELLO TRADERS Hope everyone is doing great 📌 A look at The CABLE At the close of ASIA INTO THE LONDON, TO NY PM SESSION * With a bullish run into Monday open today will be looking for some retracement. * looking at the daily last week friday failed to take high wich is a sign of weakness on GU. * even though the -OB is violated looking for a retracement. * on the 4H looking for a bullish open to take ASIA high LQ. * PO3 * Push higher before going for lower structures. * looking for an aggressive move above out of the range to sweeep. * and agressive in. * this where I would look for entries short. * Looking for the take of that ERL. * with two possible OTE ( ASIA HIGHS, AND LONG TERM HIGH) , EXECUTION IS BASED ON RR & RISK MANAGEMENT. * DXY 4H - Will wait for the DXY to take ASIA lows and trade back in the range as a confirmation as well... * BASED on the price action served next session... * We will see what does the market dish. 🤷‍♂️😉🐻📉🐮📈 HOPE YOU ENJOYED THIS OUT LOOK, SHARE YOUR PLAN BELOW,🚀 & LETS TAKE SOME WINS THIS WEEK. SEE YOU ON THE CHARTS. IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY WAY OR IF YOU ENJOYED THIS ONE SMASH THAT 🚀 & LEAVE A COMMENT. ALWAYS APPRECIATED ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - I TAKE MY TRADES ON A INTRA DAY SESSIONS BASIS THIS IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE TO EXCECUTE ❤ LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
Short
by PULEMokhothu
8
GBPUSD 1.28715 + 0.19% SHORT IDEA ASIAN SESSION TRADEHELLO TRADERS Hope everyone is doing great 📌 A look at The CABLE from INTRA DAY TIME-FRAME ANALYSIS GBPUSD 15 M TF * Friday opens with a sweep of NY lunch session highs. * Trading above the True Day OPEN confirming a Judas swing at play for shorts. * Seems we may see a reversal before continuation, with the CISD On the 1H. * GBPUSD took External range LQ , looking for that internal range LQ to be taken. * This move will be delivered from The 15M -OB * CONFIRMATION of this short idea is if we see rejection at pd arrays with significant 🐻 candles **IF CONFIRMED TP 1 - ASIAN LOWS TP2 - TREND LQ AT PROJECTION 2.5 5 M TIME-FRAME HOPE YOU ENJOYED THIS OUT LOOK, SHARE YOUR PLAN BELOW,🚀 & LETS TAKE SOME WINS THIS WEEK. SEE YOU ON THE CHARTS. IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY WAY OR IF YOU ENJOYED THIS ONE SMASH THAT 🚀 & LEAVE A COMMENT. ALWAYS APPRECIATED ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - I TAKE MY TRADES ON A INTRA DAY SESSIONS BASIS THIS IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE TO EXCECUTE ❤ LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
Short
by PULEMokhothu
8
GBPUSD Possible Triangle BreakHi Traders! A symmetrical triangle is forming on the GBPUSD 4H chart, and we could have a breakout soon. Here are the details: The market has found support and resistance at both the trendline support and trendline resistance of the triangle, as the market is looking for a direction. Looking at the price action, it looks bearish; we have had multiple tests at the trendline support and have broken below the 20 EMA. The market is currently trading on the trendline support, and we are looking for a break and a close below the trendline. As long as the market stays below the 20 EMA, our view will remain bearish. We expect some more consolidation before a possible attempt at the trendline break. Preferred Direction: Sell Technical Indicators: 20 EMA Resistance: 1.26947 Support: 1.27674 Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly.
Short
by BluetonaFX
1
BluetonaFX - GBPUSD Bear Pennant PatternHi Traders! GBPUSD is in a bear pennant pattern and is heading for the 4-week low at 1.20372 in anticipation of the FOMC press conference later today.   Price Action 📊 The market is currently in the bear pennant pattern and is showing bearish signals with lower highs and lower lows; additionally, there has been a break and a close under the 20 EMA. We are now looking for a momentum break to break and close below the support trendline to target the four-week low at 1.20372. Fundamental Analysis 📰 The US economy expanded at a 4.9% annual rate from July through September as Americans defied higher prices and rising interest rates. Economists have also said the US economy expanded last quarter at the fastest pace in nearly two years—more than twice the 2.1% annual rate of the previous quarter. The FOMC press conference is later today, so traders are eagerly waiting to hear what their statements are on the current US economic improvements. Support 📉 1.20943: TRENDLINE SUPPORT 1.20372: FOUR-WEEK LOW Resistance 📈 1.21836: 20 EMA 1.22008: PREVIOUS DAY'S HIGH Risk ⚠️ No more than 2% of your capital. Reward 💰 At least 4% of your capital. Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Short
by BluetonaFX
Cable; Bearish Move Loading...The Cable is getting ready for a deep bearish dive. Market is current bearish from the larger timeframes of 4 hour and above. On the 1 hour and lower, price is bullish, and we see prices rallying towards the 4 hour supply zone. Market has also shown some signs of early reversal at this level. If the market reverses here, we will be ready to go down with it. Our signal for bearish confirmation will be a break of the structure as marked BMS. Where that fails, we hope to see prices soar higher into the 4 hour zone, from where we will begin to expect bearish reversals. As always, we will wait for our confirmation of the bearish reversal and look to jump on it.
Short
by PanzyPips
JUST FOLLOW THE SCRIPT - EURUSDWE ARE BEARISH. THE DXY IS BULLISH. Therefore on a bearish day we expect price to IMPULSE to a AREA of Liquidity right above our Morning Zone before the dump in confluence with the DXY being BULLISH. WE EXPECT A DUMP TO THE 3RD OR 4TH SD. NARRATIVE: MONDAY JUNE 12, 2023 2:58AM EST Never Over Leverage. Large Trading Accounts are grew over time through compounding. TRUST YOUR SET UP. HAVE A GREAT WEEK OF METICULOUSLY CALCULATING AND PRECISE TRADING!!!!!!!!!! I AM THE ALGORITHM NOW:)
Short
by Master-Jedi-Trader
1
TIME TO HUNT!!!! USING THE>SNIPER TRADING $Y$TEMWhen Price Breaks out of the MZ (Morning Zone) we have 64.1 pips to hunt to the 69pip extreme level which is the 4th Standard Deviation. That's your target. There is Genius in SIMPLICITY. I uncoded the script that the algorithm submits to EVERY SINGLE DAY> so much so I became the Algorithm: NOW I AM THE ALGORITHM. Never Over Leverage. Trust your set up and give it time to manifest. Have a Great Trading Day Family!!!!! I AM MASTER JEDI & SENSI of SNIPER GANG ELITE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Short
by Master-Jedi-Trader
CABLE RETEST B4 WAVE #3GBP/USD looks as if some weakness is creeping in to the chart. On the smaller timeframes we had a TEST of the resistance at 1.235 area during large session volumes, followed by a subsequent retest where it looks as if buyers are exhausted, as they have failed here to push above the resistance during multiple sessions. Looking for volumes to start pulling CABLE DOWN TO SUPPORT, around the 1.20 area which is VERY solid support structure. Any longs should be resumed in this area, assuming that the price action does play out. From a fundamental level we have Powell who just hiked the dollar 25 base points which should provide some short term support to the ROCKY DXY
Short
by NakedTrading4U