Most Probable Outcome (SPY, SPX)Looking at recent pullbacks and Shiller Cape. My most probable outcome for this S&P Correction is 5400. Finding the first big support under the 200 DMA. Shiller Cape around 35 at that level.
CAPE
VIX to $17 Soon for another key trend line resistance test!Ensure you hedge your trades and know your maximum loss and profit, especially if you have limited funds to dollar cost average or are trading options.
For informational and educational purposes only, I prefer buying laddered call options on UVIX (1.5x), VXX (1x), and UVXY (2x) at sub-$13 levels over 2-4 weeks that align with my long "risk on" call expirations. This way, I can sell the pops and use the proceeds to add to my most committed "risk on" positions.
Good luck!
@candlestickninjatv
Outlook for CAPEThis is just idle speculation looking at how SHLLER_PE_RATIO has charted in the past, and some of the major support/resistance lines.
#justforfun
Barclays CAPE Shiller ETN Outpreforms the SPYBarclays' CAPE Shiller ETN provides equal weighted exposure to the 4 sectors most undervalued (via cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio aka CAPE) with relative price momentum in the SPX500 Universe.
So far it has been outpreforming the SPY
CAPE has a 0.45% expense ratio vs the 0.095% of that of SPY
Manage your own risk
Much love
GL HF
xoxo
snoop
The Shiller PE Ratio: Proof that the Market is Irrational The U.S. equity market now appears "cheap" to many--the ones who have named this so called "V" shaped recovery in the U.S. equity markets, however it's important to keep context in mind when looking back at a decade of earnings growth compared to 1919.
Into December of 1919, the CAPE was at an all-time low. With so much focus on 1919 going into the COVID-19 pandemic among market commentary, the comparison that this chart allows to make is 1919 to 2019, with a suggestion of downtrend.
If the SPX indeed returns to multiples in 1919, that would put a market valuation of the SPX at around $500 according to the CAPE ratio.
