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Cardwell

Oil bearish until end of april - contrary to geopolitical situatThe high for oil is probably set, for at least a month. It speaks for itself that this is contrary to the current belief due to the war in Ukrain, but the charts speak for themselves. Expect a correction during the remainder of march and april. Target for the correction is 104 to 106 level. Once the correction is over, Oil will probably rise during summer to 168 - 170. The elliott wave is shown. Indicators also shown a momentum high, both RSI as the CFG (cardwell's improved version of the RSI). Especially the CFG is showing a momentum extreme, so a cooling off period is very probable. Timing analysis shows a fibonacci balance of wave 4 to end somewhere in april.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by arnevv
2
Bitcoin - long term bottom in place - first target 60k in juneBitcoin is showing is that a longer term bottom is in place, because of the following reasons. Momentum analysis The weekly chart found support on the RSI 40 level. A longer term Positive Reversal (LT PR) is there, with a signal count of 16. The Cardwell CFG is bottoming out at the same level as in june 2021. Elliott Wave The strong leg up to april 21, is followed by a textbook flat. The internals are 3-3-5. The strong rebound at 32950 indicates flat-C to be ended, which shows we are in an impulsive wave up now. Target and invalidation - Invalidation: This scenario is invalidated if Bitcoin falls below 32950 - Targets: the first important targets along the way up are the endpoint of wave 1, so somewhere between 60k to 70k. This will probably be reached between april and june. Strong resistance will be found at 52k (previous 4). Eventually 95k and higher are expected.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by arnevv
7
Trading with RSI IndicatorRSI TA SETUP 1. Start a new layout on Trading View. Call it “RSI TA” to distinguish it from the rest 2. Add only the following indicators: A) Volume: straight forward, nothing to configure here B) RSI Candles: Configure it as follows: Length = 9 UpLevel = 60 DownLevel = 40 Change the Bar Colors to any colors that suit you or keep them as default if you like. I use phosphoric green for 60 (color 0) and phosphoric red for 40 (color 1) C) RSI Multi Level V3: Configure it as follows: Length = 9 Style: Plot ( I chose yellow to distinguish it from my background and the rest) Level 80 Phosphoric Green (to distinguish it from the regular green candles) Level 60 Phosphoric Red (to distinguish it from the regular red candles) Level 50 White ( I use dark mode, so white is visible. Otherwise choose black if you use light mode) Level 40 Green Level 20 Red Disable the rest READINGS: 1. Use the daily chart, don’t apply it to lower time frames. In a BULL RUN Market: - Go long after the close of the first daily phosphoric green candle. - Continue longing daily phosphoric green candles - Once the daily candle is no more phosphoric green, exit the trade. - Go long again when the candle turns phosphoric green. - Make sure you do not enter/exit a trade before a triggering phosphoric candle. In a BEAR RUN Market: - Go short after the close of the first daily phosphoric red candle. - Continue shorting daily phosphoric red candles - Once the daily candle is no more phosphoric red, exit the trade. - Go short again when the candle turns phosphoric red. - Make sure you do not enter/exit a trade before a triggering phosphoric candle. Apply the above to previous historical data to get confident about it. Observe how the signals reflect on the RSI Multi Level V3 Indicator at the bottom of the page to get an understanding of how the indicators are getting triggered. Feel free to paper trade first. And if you are margin trading, make sure you use Stop Losses.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by eBlockChain
Positive reversal with target for ETHBTC?Based on the teachings of Andrew Cardwell and Constance Brown regarding positive reversal scenarios, we possibly see a nice example in ETH/BTC here. I have marked the key points with letters. The low marked 'x' is a higher low than the low marked 'w'. The RSI shows a lower low, meaning that PA is considered oversold quicker than before. This is called a positive reversal signal, provided that PA stays above the ascending line and actually does bottom here. The interesting thing about positive such reversal scenarios is not that PA may go up from here, the interesting thing is that we can actually calculate the target price using a simple formula: (y + (x - w)). This gives us a target close to 0.085. How reliable is this? If the bottom takes place here, the reliability would be above 50%. What makes it more interesting, and again I refer to Constance Brown's book "Technical Analysis for the Trading Pofessional" is that the bottom happens at a very important level: RSI at 40. This is often a level for reversals within a bull market. Stoplosses can be put a couple of percentage points below the ascending line. Risk reward then becomes incredibly favourable.
Long
by Birdseye88
NZDUSD - Going down to 0.63411 - Wait for good moment to shortAll timeframes on NZDUSD are bearish. Next longer timeframe target is 0.63411, which is the last bottom on the Monthly timeframe Target: 0.63411 Invalidation point: 0.70644 (last bottom on Daily timeframe) See below the multitimeframe analysis M) Down: Bearish Range Rules (Relative Strengh Index moves between 20 and 60), Bear retracement exactly at 50%, Price is lower as several moving averages. There is one contradiction, which is the bear divergence on the CFG Indicator. The CFG on the monthly chart is showing lower tops while the price is giving higher tops. That indicates a short bear detour after which the market should resume it's bull trend. Due to more bearish evidence as bullish, I'm prefering the bearish scenario instead of the bullish. Next target is the last bottom at 0.63411 W) Down: Relative strengh indicator recently broke below 40, Positive reversal target of 0.78116 is not achieved, which is very bearish. The weekly traders are clearly heading down. D) Down: Bearish Range Rules (Relative Strengh Index moves between 20 and 60), recent Negative Reversal Target of 0.7006 is being hit. That pricelevel is now resistance. In addition to that the prices are below the moving averages. The daily traders are clearly bearish. Wait for a Negative reversal on this timeframe (or lower) to enter the market 4H) Down: Bearish Range Rules (Relative Strengh Index moves between 20 and 60). Prices are below the moving averages. The 4H traders are clearly bearish. Wait for a Negative reversal on this timeframe to enter the market. Conclusion: All TF's aligned, find a Daily or 4H Negative Reversal to enter the market with as target 0.63411
Short
by arnevv
4
EURUSD - Moving down to 1.146 - search for good moment to short EURUSD shows arguments to expect a further decline on different timeframes. Wait for Negative Reversals on Relative Strength Index or CFG to short the market. Next target: 1.146 (based on weekly timeframe) Invalidation point: 1.17111 (recent bottom on daily and 4H timeframe) See analysis of multi timeframes below: M) Down: topping at 60, below fibo 50% level (1.22) protecting bear perspective W) Sideways: RSI < MA's, on its way to test MA's on price around 1.146 D) Down: RR, NR TA Hit, resistance at 1.17586 and 1.17111 4H) Down: NR TA Hit, Range Rules, resistance at 1.17094 Search for NR's to enter the market
Short
by arnevv