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BTCUSDT CRAB PRZ Supply to neckline retestHi everyone. I'm watching a probably PRZ in some confluences after a bearish Scott Carney's CRAB pattern figured out. The volume decreasing along the consolidation so-called Bart Simpson indicates institutional price support. In the next two days at least we can expect a distribution phase in the 100-88.6% range of Fibonacci retracement. The 61.8% pivot level can be a TP1 in a reversal breakout of 88.6%. The actual price action reinforces an ideal pullback to touch Head and Shoulders' neckline which can be spiked at this supply sector, as predicted in my past overview "potential pullback...". An expected overbought condition in the next daily coincides with a key level for institutionals to liquidates high leveraged longs by sardines that came in the BARR impulsive breakout.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by firmestudio
ridethepig | Continue To Sell GBP On Rallies Here tracking 1.295x as the level to recycle and load more shorts. Well done those following from the original short-term swing which was triggered on the cabinet reshuffle (see diagram below). As widely expected GBP suffering as markets began to look towards the EU negotiations kickstarting in March. Both sides are very wide apart and no-deal Brexit looks set for year end. The flows are all in-line so far with the long-term macro picture. It is playing out perfectly and looking to sell rallies with risks skewed towards the downside makes sense to me. Medium term targets are located below at 1.21 and 1.15 - these are in play for 1H 2020 if things get very bad with USD strengthening via panic around virus impact and risks while GBP softens as UK lose PPP in the immediate term. Well done those already selling Sterling, and good luck anyone look to load more on rallies. I am happy to sit short and work the sell-side in Cable. The ideas are no less imaginative than those of last year which turned out to be a 1,000 tick trade: Thanks as usual for keeping the likes, comments and charts coming !
Short
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.02.13A weak session for EURGBP, soft hands continued to bring better sellers in from leveraged accounts and yet the important 0.8300x support still held. I am once again in BTFD mode as pound remains more vulnerable in the entire process as a result of financial services replacement. Risk markets will put more pressure on GBP in general over the coming sessions. Here using dips to buy into with an end of year target at 0.95xx. BOE are already showing signs of distress with the cross below 0.853 which is key via rate differentials. A very technical flow as is usually the case with these cabinet reshuffles we get a retrace in the swing. Adding this to the playbook at the close today with initial targets located at 0.8400, followed by 0.8425 and 0.8450. Invalidation comes into play with a daily close underneath 0.830x. Good luck all those on the bid, same legs are playable in GBPUSD and GBPJPY in particular too. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes and comments!
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | Fading The Highs In GBP!With Javid out Johnson had the perfect cherry pick with Rishi Sunak and now the fiscal taps can be turned on full. This medium-term swing is starting to look very interesting which is unlocking a leg towards 1.20xx and 1.15xx below: Rishi is a typical yes man, he will do whatever Johnson wants. Those behind the curtain know it was another flawless beheading from Cummings, meanwhile a ruthless Downing Street only waiting for Carney exit on 16th March to have full control with Bailey too. Eyes on NY selling the open, we could get a very fast swing down is USD catches a strong bid via coronavirus risk. US inflation overshooting will be enough to carry this lower. Thanks guys for keeping the likes and comments coming, jump into the discussion with your charts below!
Short
by ridethepig
13
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 2020.02.11A timely update to the FX strategy for GBP with particular focus on Cable. On the UK side, we have loud messages from Europe around the difficulty for both sides to reach an agreement by year-end. Although typical in a game of high-stakes chess, this is a heavy weight on Sterling. On the US side, a solid round of data prints last week from wages to non-agricultural employment. The FED remains dovish and in cutting mode, in normal circumstances cuts would be difficult to justify but with Trump in full control market expectations do not favour USD walking forward. On the technicals the map is crystal clear until we enter into the Brexit impact leg: Strong Support 1.276x <=> Soft Support 1.290x <=> Mid Point 1.328x <=> Soft Resistance 1.38xx <=> Strong Resistance 1.43xx On the positioning side, Pound longs were mostly built by speculators in the back-end of 2019 and these began to unwind as we headed into the official finish line in Jan 2020. This is leaving the flows exposed to negative headlines although you can argue the case for further upside as long as strong economic prints continue. The Pound is relatively cheap in this environment, I suspect the main impact leg from Brexit will not kick-in till October 2020 so we have plenty of time to continue working both side in the next 6 months. Expecting a mild recovery to come in the months ahead which will aid in offshore ownership of UK assets, the desire is there to continue the recovery and as long as this remains the case the breakdown will be difficult. Look to add GBP exposure on dips while we are at the bottom of the short-term and medium term range. A breakdown will be a game changer and will imply BOE are moving in August. A round of G10 FX charts and strategy updates coming over the sessions today... Don't forget to keep the likes and comments rolling guys!
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 2020.01.14The power to breakdown has been developed knowingly and systematically, unlike chop/consolidation which frequently occurs. The effect of the breakdown is heightened by BOE turning very dovish and calling up for Sterling devaluation, which in their eyes must be required for offsetting the loss in UK market access. Compare the following two diagrams: Sellers step in on the election day as expected with a strong barrier. A sweep of the highs. Can sellers maintain the breakdown? In the first, the test of 1.35 sent buyers wandering on grounds of an orderly Brexit, depriving sellers valuable resistance. However, it was dangerous for buyers to carry on because the eye of Brexit is on it. After a Johnson majority came the selloff and now the attempt by sellers to reinstate the strategic breakdown which was previously broken is powerfully gaining momentum from the monetary side. Should we get the breakdown, the move will be fast as the insurance cut from BOE will not last beyond May. Bailey starts in May, it will take some time for the Johnson/Javid fiscal taps to work its way into the MPC forecasts meaning another late 2020 cut is then on the cards (not in play with this chart as will unlock 1.15). To put simply, a dovish BOE and hard Brexit will keep rates in the lower bound and QE infinity will return in 2021. For the immediate term, market clearly caught on the wrong side; 1.290x is next followed by 1.277x. Very difficult to get constructive on UK markets with BOE turning dovish. On the EURGBP side: Good luck all those on the sell side in Cable and other Sterling crosses, a lot of meat left on the bone. As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc.
Short
by ridethepig
13
ORBEX:CHF Firm Despite Haven Flows,Pound "Stimulated" by CarneyBOE's Gov Carney hinted to stimulus yesterday, indicating that the pound could come under severe pressure if incoming data show no improvement. Coincidently, the same day there were suggestions that the EU-UK talks could be dragged past the tight deadline BoJo has set. The passenger plane crash in Tehran didn’t reflect into the markets as uncertainty about the crash remains high without access to the plane's "black box". As a result, #safehaven outflows continued to weaken the #yen. However, #franc seems undeterred by the sentiment, making a strong case for more firmness. Timestamps USDCHF 4H 01:25 GBPUSD 2H 03:35 Trade safe Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
ridethepig | GBP Fast Flows A very simple trigger for those wanting to cover some shorts from the initial elections entry; the key 1.315x support is holding and pressure has been completely absorbed. We are trading the bottom of the clearly defined range from the elections; 1.315x <=> 1.355x and markets rather than going overboard on risk will want to keep their cards closer to their chest until 2020. If we do lose 1.315x this will trigger a panic leg and immediately put us into impulsive territory in the macro chart below. Macro prints today from the UK were better than expectations and will be enough to keep BOE on hold and unlocks another test of 1.35xx. I will continue to use this pivot to position for the long-term flows: A perfect double top in the making? Smells like it... Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and questions. This is for advanced traders only as we are using the short-term range to decrease risk and scale into our position for a long-term trend . As usual with any questions feel free to open below.
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | Sterling Market Commentary 2019.11.18As widely anticipated over the weekend Conservative lead widening and reflecting in Cable strength. The 1.292x - 1.282x remains of interest to me, here expecting 1.30 to hold ahead of elections as momentum in Pound looks apathetic at best. The "People vs Establishment" narrative continues to pick up steam: This sadly is a necessary component in the collapse of the British Empire, a ruthless Downing Street in the driving seat. For those tracking the previous long term charts in Cable: While those tracking EURGBP will also remember the infamous 0.853 floor, this remains intact and will drive forward another constructive round of demand: Best of luck all those trading the inside swings here on both sides, not particularly impressive price action expected with little in the economic calendar this week. Thanks for keeping the likes and comments coming. Highlights of the move so far and a serious contender for "Chart of the Year"
Short
by ridethepig
7
ORBEX: GBPCHF & EURJPY Follow Identical Pattern (hint: bullish)!In today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk about #fxminors #EURJPY and #GBPCHF as they both seem to be moving within an identical pattern. Despite the added uncertainty amid the latest delay drama of phase-1 of a potential trade deal between US and China, safe-havens #yen and #franc seemed unaffected by at least this type of flows. That suggests that participants are now shifting to more exciting events, expected to trade trade war flows when a more significant and certain development comes on the surface. Until then, #euro and #pound inflows could push the aforementioned pairs higher, with the latter hanging on today's #BoE meeting. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
1700 per ounce of gold, another crisis signal, Powell's speechFed’s monetary policy vector changes, the pressure between the US and Iran has reached a critical level, the overall high level of investor concern led to the fact that gold almost reached 1140 yesterday. As a result, an increasing number of traders and analysts are turning into purchases. In particular, Marc Chandler from Bannockburn Global Forex believes that a breakdown of 1400 opens the way for gold to 1700. We are far from being so optimistic and we will look for points for its sales. In the meantime, analysts are continuing to look for signals about the coming crisis. Earlier, it was the inversion yield curve inversion, the departure of the Real Monetary Proposal to zero, the cycle theory, the decline of America's auto industry. The Fed is changing its approach to monetary policy by changes tightening and so on... Small-cap companies, as well as transport company stocks relative to the SP500 index dynamics, have shown the worst dynamics since 2009 (!). In theory, small-cap companies should grow much more actively than high-cap companies. And we are now seeing a kind of inversion. This inversion, according to analysts, is a disturbing signal and is a harbinger of the coming crisis. Data from the United States came out quite weak. New home sales also disappointed with 626k, missing expectations of 684k, as was the Conference Board said its consumer confidence index dropped 9.8 points to a reading of 121.5 this month, the lowest since September 2017. Jerome H. Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, said Tuesday that the downside risks to the US economy grew, but he avoided the topic of lowering rates. So the dollar received some support. Therefore we will use this dollar growth solely for the purpose of selling it more expensively. Today, surges of volatility in pound pairs are quite possible. The Bank of England (BOE) inflation report hearings will hog the limelight this Wednesday. Governor Mark Carney’s testimony will be closely heard, in the face of the recent dovish tilt. Note that the hearings will be on the May inflation report. In addition, data on orders for durable goods and the US trade balance may well lead to the formation of local trends in dollar pairs. Our trading preferences for today: we will continue to look for points for sales of the US dollar against the Japanese yen, euro, and pound. We continue to wait for a gold correction and look for points for its sales. And also we will actively sell the ruble both on the intraday basis as well as medium term.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Trade24Fx
Art 50 extension likely...an update to CableHere we have an update to the Cable chart. The UK going back to the 1600’s as odds of another vote on PM May’s deal in the House of Commons this week are very low. For a house of “Commons” they are certainly lacking “common sense”. ... The rules are that two votes on the same motion are not permitted during the same parliamentary year. This means PM May will have to wait till July before being able to put the vote forward again. Obviously this can change if we see any changes in the majority support, however, as things stand we are on track for a no-deal Brexit from a legal perspective….The big question remains whether the EU will approve the extension. Odds of a long extension are creeping higher (67%) meaning pressure on the Brexiteers will increase massively to such an extent that they are forced to back May’s deal. Remember up until now we have been trading the conjecture leg of Brexit. The damage so far has come only from uncertainty, we have yet to experience the main impact of losing market access on the economy. Best of luck those who are positioned on either side for this result... we are going to see some fireworks!
Short
by ridethepig
"Doves" it even matter?A "dovish" surprise from the Fed yesterday ...but does it really matter? Well the removal of 2019 hikes is worth highlighting because it does not fully support the story we are being told from macro data meaning the bar is set high for any further hikes.History tells us it’s very unusual for the Fed to pause for a long time in hiking cycles before resuming meaning this is likely the end of hikes in the cycle. In Brexitland, PM May playing politics with a " Queens Gambit "…by asking for the short-extension till the end of June she is trying to force MPs hands to vote for her deal. Options from the EU are still either for (short) Mid-May or (long) lasting into 2020. The risk scenario which will send Pound flying down across the FX board is that the EU reject an extension. Expecting a muted BOE today, no hikes with the MPC judging further tightening warranted over the forecast horizon... same old story till we clear the political mess. For those who are positioned from the previous ideas in GBPUSD, GBPJPY, GBPNZD and EURGBP it's time to trail stops and sit tight, markets are pricing a higher risk of a no deal Brexit again. Same targets for the drama, for those following I will be covering the BOE live in RTP ... good luck guys.
Short
by ridethepig
Very clear path for GBPJPY We have a very similar setup to that in GBPNZD (see attached: "Expanding Diagonal in GBPNZD" for more information on the technical side as we will not be covering that here). As expected the House of Commons rejecting the idea of a no-deal Brexit yesterday (although by default unless there are any changes we are heading for this outcome so it still remains in play). From the fundamental side, nothing has changed. As per today the UK is still set to lose market access with the block, meaning no withdrawal agreement and no transition period. This will push inflation through the roof, drowning consumers, meaning household spending will remain weak throughout the forecast horizon. Weak wage growth and less credit capacity do not leave the UK in a comfortable position regardless of how the media is trying to sell this story. In any event, the third and final chapter of the Brexit votes is commencing today. For this one we are tracking whether the HoC can agree on asking for an extension of Art. 50. From very good Westminister sources I can confirm PM May is seeking a two-month extension, however, even if the vote passes the EU are not optimistic with elections around the corner and are unlikely to play ball. On the Japanese side, the fiscal-year-end repatriation flows to JPY have begun. This is a seasonality flow occurring mid-late March every year as Japanese companies repatriate foreign assets ahead of March earnings. Best of luck!
Short
by ridethepig
House of Commons Round 2Round 2 is in play for the House of Commons tonight. The house are voting on whether it supports leaving the EU without a deal. Markets are overwhelmingly expecting this to be rejected, leaving the possibility of a Brexit extension (round 3) tomorrow the most likely scenario. Expecting a soft rally on the thought of no-deal being removed. A nice pipe-dream and worth selling with stops above yesterday's high in my opinion. Lets see how this one plays out. I leave some more pending sells above 1.32.
Short
by ridethepig
13
Dissecting the entire move in Cable (live)We have some time ahead of "House of Commons: Chapter 2" later today so it is a perfect opportunity to start dissecting the moves in cable that have been traded live in Tradingview. Our first position on the sell-side came in at 1.329 (see attached idea "Selling cable with incoming dollar strength") as we were expecting the highs to be set as markets finished pricing in the expectation of at least a one-quarter 'delay' of Art 50. This '((iii))' leg finished after an inline/soft NFP with 20k jobs killing the flows. After another soft rally before the "meaningful" vote yesterday we re-engaged selling at the 1.326 level (see attached "An update to cable ahead of the vote"). Those who are paying attention to the 1.311 target managed to book some profits, I know a few from the Forex chat did, which gave us the '((v))' part in our sequence. Finally we are arriving for the 2nd leg in the 5 wave sequence, we are outguessing that the highs of "iv" will not be taken and looking to swing the enter positions initially towards the 1.28/1.29 area with targets beyond that at 1.24 and 1.21. Lets see how it goes, feel free to open up the comments below if there are any queries.
Short
by ridethepig
7
BoE Gov Carney speech and the poundIn his speech today BoE Governor Mark Carney said that global growth this year is expected to be at around 3.25%. Since the Brexit referendum, the pound has fallen 25%, causing incomes to fall, and slowdowns all over the economy. Historical stability, solid financial institutions and a well-built social/political system allow the country to maintain afloat. Carney argued for a more inclusive stance from world governments. If services are allowed the same freedom across borders, as goods, then we could have a fundamental shift towards a new economical horizon. If a hard Brexit is to be, we will default to the rules of the World Trade Organization. BoE view of risks on the horizon 1. Complacency. If expansion is prolonged across the world, the following crisis will be much bigger. 2. Possibility of a material slowdown in China. Chinas stability over the last 30 years is magnificent. Post 2008 they have been using two tools - over crediting and shadow banking. A 3% slowdown in China would equal 1% world slowdown and 0.5% slowdown in the UK. 3. Brexit could be the tipping point of the world economy going into a recession. Openness of markets and business prospect are leading drivers of growth. The pound is very much in a down trend. We do not recommend opening long positions in this currency. At the current level the pound is up against the 38.2% Fibonacci level as a resistance level. Yesterday the pound fell right through this level and did not return for a retest. Mark Carney the Governor of the Bank of England did not provide much detail on why yesterday’s numbers were so off. He did use the word “recession” three times. The price could test around 1.3000 again this week, from which it would be wise to open a short position. A stop loss should be placed at 1.30250 which is at the level of the 200-MA. If the trade goes in our favor, the target would be just above 1.26750, the closest support level.
Short
by YaroslavBirchenko
1
An U-turn in market sentiments Oil market The oil market continues to master successively new peaks, rising on Monday to the highest level since July 2015 . Oversupply is steadily declining while Saudi Arabia's readiness for changes looks even more reliable against the backdrop of anti-corruption detentions in the higher echelons of power in the kingdom. Prince Mohammed Bin Salman made a purge in the ranks of government arresting royal officials, ministers and investors. The enemies of the prince were even the billionaire Alwaleed bin Talal and the head of the National Guard Prince Miteb bin Abdullah. The struggle inside the board worsened after the announcement of the plans of the kingdom to hold the IPO of the largest oil company Saudi Aramco next year, just in the phase of growing oil market, which will offer investors the stake for higher price. Shale output in the US shows signs of further decline, as the report of Baker Hughes on Friday showed that the number of drilling rigs decreased by 8 to 729. This was the sharpest decline since May 2016. The fall in drilling activity occurs together with the action of the OPEC + oil pact, which convinces the mutual interest of shale companies and the cartel to restore the balance of supply and demand. The pact expires in March 2018, but the rhetoric of Saudi Arabia and Russian officials has been repeatedly favored to extend the agreement by the end of next year. US dollar The dollar exchange rate has slightly changed on Monday, as investors "squeezed" long positions last week against the backdrop of an unimpressive NFP report. The likelihood of a "soft" version of the tax reform is also growing, where the introduction of tax incentives will be carried out in stages, rather than at a time. The rise during the Asian session was replaced by relative indifference with the beginning of the London trading. The decline from the dollar is likely to limited because of uncertainty with the tax plan, but the bond market seems to be giving up. The yield on 10-year US bonds shows a negative trend on Monday, after a significant decline last week. The net short position on the dollar fell to a minimum of four months from $18 billion at the end of September to $3 billion in the last week. The dynamics of EM currencies, however, suggests strengthening of the dollar. The Russian ruble continued its decline on Monday amid the carry trade rout, a period of payment of debts denominated in US dollars and a growing demand for foreign currency on the part of nation. The pair USDRUB soared to the level of 59.00, for the first time since the end of August. The signal of weakening of currencies attractive for carry trade testifies about fears of shrinking differential of interest rates or strengthening of the dollar. British pound Investors are actively buying back the pound from the key support level at 1.30, to which it arrived on Thursday after the meeting of the Bank of England. The pound is projected to trade in red further, falling below 1.30 due to the instability of the Conservative Party and the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit negotiations. The expected increase in the rate by the Bank of England did nothing for the pound, as the head of the bank Mark Carney stressed that the main risk for economy remains the deal with European Union on maintaining access to the single trading market. If the country fails to reach an agreement, the pace of economy pickup may significantly slow down, as import duties can plunge a large number of enterprises into losses. The projected pace of rate normalization fell to two increases in the next three years, which caused a sharp change in expectations for the pound in the direction of the negative. Arthur Idiatulin
TVC:UKOILLong
by Tickmill