Ceasefire — Trading Ideas on TradingView

EURUSD: Potential impact of Trump-Puting meeting on fibre In this video, we break down what the highly anticipated Trump-Putin talks could mean for the EUR/USD pair. The meeting is set for 21:30 CET, after markets close, so any immediate reaction may happen when they reopen. Key scenarios include: Positive Tone: If Trump and Putin get along, risk appetite could rise, but a potential Ukraine peace deal may reduce EU defence spending and weaken the Euro. No Deal: If talks break down, fears of tariffs and trade war could resurface. While risk aversion often supports the dollar, increased US tariffs might instead fuel a "sell America" trend, which could help the Euro only slightly, with gold and treasuries likely benefiting more. Tariff Threats: Trump’s push for a Ukraine ceasefire could see new tariffs if talks fail, putting the EU in a tough spot over Russian oil and risking Euro weakness due to potential slower growth. Market movements will depend on the meeting's tone and follow-up statements, so stay tuned for how these geopolitical dynamics could drive EUR/USD next week! This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

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Is WW3 Coming? Crude Waves Flash Warning which I DO NOT LIKE IT I’m getting a knot in my stomach looking at this chart, it feels like a warning about what’s coming. Chart Context • WTI jumped from the pandemic low of 6.62 up to 131.02 on March 6, 2022. • It then retraced to 59.86 (38 % Fib) by June 4, 2025. • That pullback seems complete, and now price is pressing against a descending wedge. Wave Map • Wave 3 could extend toward 207 • A full five-wave run points up near 330 • The pattern is squeezed in a tightening channel that looks ready to break any day Why It Feels Risky Breaking above 200 normally requires a major supply shock—think trouble at the Strait of Hormuz, surprise OPEC cuts, or a hit to U.S. shale. The Iran–Israel cease-fire is shaky, drones are still buzzing storage sites, and even a brief chokepoint shutdown would send tanker traffic into chaos. To me, the chart is flashing that tail risk. Trading Plan • I’ll watch the wedge’s upper trendline around 83 for my first signal • A weekly close above 93 would clear the path to 117, then 145 • If price closes below 51 on the week, this thesis is off Your Thoughts? Does this wave count make sense, or am I reading too much into it? Drop your views—especially if you’ve got the geopolitical angle covered. I hope this wave doesn’t play out, but pretending it’s not there feels reckless. (Not financial advice)

WTI Oil: further downside?Front page news this morning focussed on the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, first announced by US President Donald Trump on his Truth Social platform. However, reports recently emerged of Iran firing missiles, seemingly violating the ceasefire, but no confirmation has been received yet. The point is that things remain somewhat uncertain as of writing. The technical front, nevertheless, is interesting on WTI Oil (West Texas Intermediate), and ultimately points to a moderate pullback before heading lower. Monthly descending triangle in play The flow on the monthly chart reveals that price action completed a descending triangle in April this year, formed between US$95.00 and US$64.41. Following the breach of the lower boundary and refreshing year-to-date (YTD) lows of US$55.15, a determined pullback materialised and resulted in the unit testing the upper barrier of the pattern. As you can see, the test has held for now, with June poised to end the month considerably off its best levels. Given that price has aggressively rejected the upper boundary of the triangle formation, and if we see WTI push to fresh YTD lows, this would unearth a possible bearish scenario in the direction of support from US$42.57. Daily Fibonacci resistance Across the page on the daily chart, you will note that recent flow touched gloves with support at US$64.55, a level complemented by a 1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio at US$64.76, a trendline support (extended from the low of US$55.40), and a neighbouring 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at US$63.70. Given that the 1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio also represents an ‘alternate’ AB=CD support pattern, traders that are long from US$64.55 may aim for the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratios of US$69.53 and US$72.59. Consequently, both of these lines serve as potential resistance levels to watch. H1 confluence With monthly price suggesting further selling, and daily resistance on the table, the H1 chart shines the spotlight on two levels of resistance at US$68.35 and US$70.14. However, I am more drawn to the latter level as a potential resistance. This is because it converges closely with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio on the daily timeframe mentioned above at US$69.53, as well as a nearby 1.618% Fibonacci projection ratio on the H1 chart at US$69.13. As a result, my focus will be on H1 resistance between US$70.14 and US$69.13. Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill

Why gold remains strong: Latest on Ukraine and Yemen Gold remains in high demand as a safe-haven asset, currently trading at $2,998.7 per ounce. Why the need for a haven? Here’s an update: A ceasefire in Ukraine hinges on some unpalatable conditions. Donald Trump has announced plans to speak with Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, saying that land and power plants are part of the negotiations. Reports suggest his administration is considering recognising Crimea as Russian territory and may push for UN recognition. In the Middle East, the U.S. carried out military strikes over the weekend on Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen. The strikes came after the group threatened to resume attacks on Red Sea shipping. Trump has declared that Iran will be held directly responsible for “for every shot fired” by the Tehran-backed Houthi rebels. In response, the Houthis vowed to “respond to escalation with escalation.”.